Store Closures Hit New High , Who’s Affected?

 

The number of stores closing in 2025 shows that the retail market is evolving. According to Coresight Research, about 15,000 stores are expected to close this year. That is more than double the number of closures in 2024 at 7,325. Surprisingly, that’s the highest number since the covid pandemic when nearly 10,000 stores ceased operations. The top five retailers that have announced the most closures this year are Party City, Big Lots, Walgreens Boots Alliance,7-Eleven, and Macy’s respectively. What’s remarkable is these lapses aren’t happening because people are spending less money. In fact, consumer spending went up last year by 4% with holiday sales hitting almost $1 trillion. The issue is retail giants like Walmart, Amazon, and Costco are drastically growing their market share by offering unbeatable convenience and lower prices. This has left smaller chains and specialty stores unable to compete. As John Mercer from Coresight pointed out, it’s clear that competitive dynamics, rather than demand, are driving this trend.

 It’s interesting to see how connected everything is and how the actions of one entity can impact the other. For example, when a large retailer like Macy’s shuts down at a mall, the smaller stores around it can’t survive because there’s a loss of foot traffic. This means smaller retailers will face a decline in sales which translates to them struggling to cover their cost of operations and then eventually being forced to close permanently. Macy’s plans to close 150 stores by 2027, with about 50 projected to shut down yearly since 2024. The abandoned spaces get renovated into gyms, clinics, or even apartments instead of new stores. On the brighter side, it’s encouraging to see that 5800 new stores are projected to open this year. Chains like Aldi, JD Sports, Pandora, and Barnes & Noble are expanding which shows that retailers who adapt to shifting consumer preferences can thrive. This indicates that while the retail industry is shrinking, new models and measures can still be established to ensure survival and growth.

source :  

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/store-closures-rise-led-by-party-city-big-lots-walgreens.html  

Healthcare Jobs are high in demand

Healthcare jobs are expected to be in high demand and a great option for people who are interested in healthcare for 2025. Healthcare jobs make up for six out of the top twenty five jobs for 2025. This was found through a ranking from indeed. The healthcare field has been expanding a lot, adding 902,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs in 2024 alone. Over the next decade healthcare jobs are actually projected to grow much faster than average. The salaries for these jobs are also pretty high compared to other fields. Radiologists for example earn a median annual salary of $385,000, while physicians make around $225,000 which is higher than the average salaries for most other jobs. Even for registered nurses, they are also high in demand and making a lot of money right now. However, entering the healthcare field typically requires a significant amount of education and training which is something everyone can't and is not willing to do. Politcial changes in the country are also thought tohave a potential effect on the healthcare field. Trump and his fellow republicans are potentially going to cut federal spending on medicaid or allow affordable care act subsidies to expire and this could lower the demand for healthcare. 

Source:https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/health-care-jobs-are-demand-2025-one-top-roles-can-pay-385000-rcna187613

Trump's Threat to Putin to Resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War

    President Donald Trump took to the social media outlet Truth Social, a media site ran by Trump Media & Technology Group, to threaten Russia and President Vladimir Putin regarding ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. President Trump stated he would enforce "high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States" if a deal is not made to end the fighting and to come to a peaceful resolution soon. Nonetheless, no specific details were discussed in this threat from one president to another, just the general warning. On the campaign trail ahead of the 2024 election, Trump promised to end the Russo-Ukrainian War within 24 hours of taking office if elected—already falling short of his own timeline.

    Trump, who was critical of the support towards Ukraine from the Biden Administration during his time out of office, is now appearing to look to have a change of opinion and looks to end the war soon but from a different approach than the previous administration. During Biden's presidency, numerous different sanctions were placed against Russian companies, imports, and differing institutions. Although the sanctions placed caused Russia's economy to take a significant hit, it did little to slow their war efforts after receiving aid from their allies. Due to the unknown logistics of this threat, it makes much less practical sense to impose more sanctions and tariffs than it would have in previous years. Since the war started trade with Russia has already significantly decreased, so it would be interesting to see what these potential tariffs and sanctions would do to both economies. 

    The Russo-Ukrainian War formally began in February 2014 over Russia's economic interests, but heavily ramped up in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and have been fighting there since. Hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers have passed away since the war began. While a peaceful resolution remains the ultimate goal, the war has already caused irreversible damage to both nations, making the road to recovery complex and questionable.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/22/trump-threatens-russia-with-sanctions-tariffs-if-putin-doesnt-end-ukraine-war.html

The Federal Reserve Leaves the NGFS

The Federal Reserve recently announced its decision to exit the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). This global organization comprises banks and financial institutions focused on integrating climate concerns into their policies. The United States joined the NGFS in 2020; however, with the transition to a new presidential administration, the Fed has chosen to sever its ties with this organization. 

This decision has brought forth a range of reactions. Rep. Andy Barr, a strong supporter of the move, argues that it prioritizes American interests over global climate issues. Some analysts believe that the Fed's focus on climate risks has distracted from its traditional responsibilities, pointing to the Silicon Valley Bank failure in 2023 as an example of insufficient oversight. This withdrawal highlights a broader shift towards prioritizing domestic financial stability over international climate commitments. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, stated that central banks should not become climate policymakers. Conversely, individuals like Ben Cushing express concerns that this move could further isolate the U.S. on the global stage. Many believe the timing aligns with President Trump's agenda to reduce U.S. involvement in international matters and global commitments. Trump has also already announced plans to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, which he previously labeled as detrimental to the economy. Officials argue that this isolating approach may weaken the United States’ influence globally. 

While I believe it is essential for our central banks to concentrate on their traditional roles—especially with events like the Silicon Valley Bank failure—I also think we must not completely ignore the global issue of climate change. The Federal Reserve should consider ecological decisions, but they should not dominate our policies. This balanced approach can prevent our economy from suffering due to a narrow focus on domestic issues. As a nation, we sometimes tend to concentrate solely on our internal challenges. However, we may be able to solve many of our problems by adopting effective global frameworks or policies. We may not be the best in every area, but we are not confined to our own knowledge and resources. This is the advantage of being part of global organizations which we are currently jeopardizing.

Article: https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/federal-reserve-withdraws-from-global-climate-group-as-trump-set-to-assume-power-5794554

Who is this new U.S. Treasury pick?

Trump's Immigration Plan on the US

I really do not think Trump's plan will affect the job market as much as we think.  We have 47.8 million immigrants with about 12 million of them in the category that Trump's party wants to deport.  He wants to deport the immigrants who have temporary visas that expire during his term (about 40% of the 12 million)  and "illegal" immigrants. Some in this “illegal” category came into the states lawfully under a plan Biden made but Trump's party says it is unlawful. 

Let’s also mention how slow the deportation process is. There is one deportation officer for every 7,000 cases.  If we take a look during Trump's first term, there were about 1.2 million immigrants deported.  Interestingly, during Obama's first term he deported 2.9 million and his second term he deported 1.9 million.  This leads to the question and makes me wonder how many immigrants is it possible for Trump's party to deport in this next term.  

Finally, I found this paper called “The Cost of Illegal Immigration to Taxpayers.”  I could get more in depth about the paper with things like 59% of illegal immigrant households use welfare programs compared to 39% of US born households.  This could be good for the economy because we can have more money to help US born citizens.  I am no expert and I am sure I am missing something so let me know if I overlooked something.  

https://cis.org/Testimony/Cost-Illegal-Immigration-Taxpayers?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAqL28BhCrARIsACYJvkfaYOXcjjBbYHfBuYiBaphn5zZY4AZ-gZIu4tFyB02waDVH7ZcGT8AaAuhFEALw_wcB  

Sources

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/17/us/immigrants-trump-deportations.html 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/quickly-trump-will-able-carry-mass-deportation-plan-depends-factors-rcna188064 

Trump's 25% Tariff Plan: Economic Implications

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, 2025. This move, part of his "America First trade policy," represents an escalation from his earlier 10% proposal during the campaign. 

Economists project these tariffs will increase consumer prices. Goldman Sachs estimates a 0.1% price rise for every 1% tariff increase, while the Peterson Institute for International Economics forecasts an annual $1,700 cost for middle-class households. Moody's predicts potential job losses of 675,000 and a 0.4% unemployment rate increase. 

The tariffs will affect various imports, including Canadian crude oil and Mexican cars, car parts, and electronics. While Trump has announced plans for Canada and Mexico, he hasn't confirmed universal tariffs on all imported goods.

These tariffs could impact the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), potentially disrupting established North American supply chains. As the February implementation date approaches, businesses, policymakers, and consumers are closely watching the potential economic effects of this policy shift.

The Biden administration had largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, highlighting the complex political nature of trade policies.

Article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/01/21/will-trumps-tariffs-raise-prices-what-to-know-as-he-threatens-goods-from-canada-and-mexico-starting-feb-1/

Home Insurance Difficulties During Natural Disasters

As Southern California has recently dealt with extreme hardships due to the recent wildfires, homeowners insurance has become much more costly and unattainable to residents. For those who live in areas with the largest expected loss, premiums increased nearly 82% more than those in low risk areas. This creates an even larger challenge for the 180,000 residents who have been displaced due to the fires. 

While this topic has been brought to attention due to the raging California wildfires, this has been occurring for quite some time now. Other recent disasters, such as hurricanes in the Southeast and severe storms in the Midwest, have also created significant challenges for Americans. One may wonder, how does this affect the long term wellbeing of those affected? According to CNBC, non-renewal rates in these high risk areas are 80% higher than the national average. Insurers in these areas also typically paid claims up to $5,000 more than low risk regions. 

The Treasury Department released this information to the public on January 17th, with just three days before the change in administration. Officials are hopeful that the administration under President Trump can use this information to spring a plan into action that makes insurance affordable for those affected by natural disasters. 

Link : https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/16/home-insurance-costs-soar-as-climate-events-surge-treasury-dept-says.html 

Australian's are Struggling to Make Ends Meet Under Their Current Economy

 Australia’s economy was the envy of the world. Now it’s falling behind. 

Australia has recorded an impressive 28 straight years of steady economic growth since 1992 until the 2020 pandemic. Since then citizens of the country are finding it harder to support themselves with the rising inflation. I thought it was interesting to note that Australia has an interesting background in recessions. After the Great Depression, Australia was one of the only major developing economies that experienced a relatively short recession before getting back on their feet in little time, and they did pretty well during the 2008 housing crisis because of their strong banking regulations. Now, they seem to be in a hard position because their economy is growing at its slowest pace since the 90s. 

The first three quarters of 2024 the United States experienced an expansion of 3.1 percent, but Australia’s GDP only grew by 0.8 percent. I also thought it was interesting to note that if it wasn't for the immigration-driven population they would actually be in a recession since their per capita growth has been negative for seven straight quarters. Meaning if you factor out the population growth driven by immigration then Australia’s economy is shrinking on a per individual basis. Australia experienced a 7.8 percent peak in inflation and stagnant wages during the pandemic and they are still seeing lingering effects from this today. For many residents, they are finding it hard to build up savings because of this slow growth causing many to find any sort of housing too expensive. 

One of the main causes of the slowdown have to do with the high interest rate. During the pandemic the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) lowered the benchmark rate to almost zero, and then raised them later to 4.35 percent to try and tame inflation, but many claim it was actually the cause of it. With a federal election next year, both major parties are looking at reducing the migration as a way to ease the cost of living. While it was stated earlier that if it wasn’t for their immigration Australia would be in a recession, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the migration was beneficial for the economy. This influx of individuals put pressure on housing and strained infrastructure which is why many native Australians do not expect to be homeowners under the current economic conditions unless something is done. 

Trump says He Will Declare National Energy Emergency

In his inaugural address, Trump said he will declare a national energy emergency with the goal of fighting inflation. With this action, he is aiming to increase fossil fuel production and ultimately withdraw the United States from international commitments to combat climate change. In combination, Trump also promised to revoke what he described as the "electric vehicle mandate." Trump is also citing the AI race with China and the need to stay at the forefront of global technology as a reason for the declaration of a national emergency.

With this promise of a declaration of a national energy emergency, many questions remain unanswered. The Trump Administration has promised to cut energy costs in half within the first year of his administration, which sounds like a large task to undertake. It will be interesting to see if Trump has these capabilities along with what possible repercussions there could be for the global climate in the short run and in the very long run.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/20/trump-to-declare-national-energy-emergency-expanding-his-legal-options-to-address-high-costs.html

Trump's Mass Deportations Effect the Job Market

As President-Elect Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated this January, his promises of mass deportation loom large. President Trump said that this is priority one and that immigrants in America could see themselves deported as early as day one in office. While Trump voters may have supported this on the surface, they may not have seen the underlying economic ramifications that certain economists have brought to life.

Experts are saying that mass deportations would not only put a large hole in the job market, but would also carry large job losses for American citizens. A 2023 study shows that 44,000 US born workers could lose their job for every 500,000 immigrants. Additionally, stories from all over America are popping up about companies, big and small, who are reliant on the immigrant workforce to support their companies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/11/trumps-mass-deportation-plan-could-have-a-big-effect-on-inflation.html

Here’s why inflation may look like it’s easing but is still a huge problem

The Federal Reserve may be nearing its inflation goal, but challenges remain as high prices continue to strain the U.S. economy. Key highlights include recent reports suggesting inflation over the past year is approaching the Fed's 2% target and predictions of upcoming data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that might show an inflation rate close enough to round down to 2%. The broader cost of living challenges persist, even as inflation trends align more closely with the central bank's objectives. These dynamics underscore the complex balance the Federal Reserve must strike between achieving inflation goals and addressing the lingering impacts of high prices on the economy. In the article, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, President Mary Daly’s anecdote illustrates the nuanced challenges the Fed faces in balancing inflation and interest rates. The Fed’s half-point rate reduction aimed to align interest rates with moderating inflation, which is well below its mid-2022 peak. This highlights the Fed’s challenge of navigating a delicate economic environment, ensuring inflation remains contained while supporting overall economic stability. 

Link to article: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/19/why-inflation-may-look-like-its-easing-but-is-still-a-huge-problem.html

SpaceX Starship Breaks During Test Flight

 

Link:https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/spacex-lost-starship-rocket-debris-videos-rcna188078

This past Thursday, SpaceX tested the Starship which is “the most powerful rocket ever developed” and measures at “400 feet tall.” During the flight mission the ship broke up and bits of it have disintegrated over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. 

Despite its failure, the system is expected to play a crucial part in NASA’s plan to return to the moon which is scheduled to happen in 2027 on the Artemis III mission. More than that however, the Starship could possibly even take astronauts to Mars. 

For me, reading this article made me realize how close “science fiction” really is. I can’t help but wonder what space exploration will bring in terms of policy which is inextricably connected to economics. Will space exploration mean planetary expansion? Will it be something we get to see in our lifetime? Space colonies?