Global trade outlook has ‘deteriorated sharply’ amid Trump tariff uncertainty, WTO warns

    WTO has sharply downgraded its global trade outlook for 2025, now projecting a 0.2% decline in merchandise trade instead of the previously forecasted 2.7% growth. This deterioration is largely attributed to escalating U.S. tariffs under President Trump and intensifying trade tensions with China, which could lead to an 81% drop in bilateral trade between the two nations. The WTO warns that this decoupling risks fragmenting the global economy into rival blocs, potentially reducing global GDP by up to 7% in the long term. Smaller and emerging economies, which rely heavily on international trade, are expected to be the most affected.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/global-trade-outlook-for-2025-has-deteriorated-sharply-wto-warns.html

Unions Form Pro Bono Legal Network for Federal Workers Targeted by Trump

 A.F.L.-C.I.O. and other unions and civil rights groups have launched a pro bono legal network to help federal employees whose jobs have been lost or threatened under the Trump administration. This initiative comes in response to the Trump administration's reduction of the federal workforce, mass firing, and budget cuts.  Currently, 1000 lawyers from 42 states have trained to provide legal services to federal workers facing job loss or threats of such job loss. This initiative aims to help employees regardless of union member status, to help protect their rights through the agencies they work for and administrative boards. Although lawsuit results have been mixed results the network plans to provide legal support to help navigate through administrative boards and courts. Overall, the network is focused on ensuring the rule of law is upheld while offering support to others affected by job insecurity.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/business/economy/federal-workers-trump-network-unions.html

Tariffs will hit US economy and raise prices, Fed boss warns

 Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77ndzy0m2vo

Jerome Powell, the chair of the federal reserve made a statement on US tariff policies. Different news organizations have had their spins on the speech. Some calling it aggressive and others saying it wasn’t aggressive enough. 

Powell made statements on the import taxes recently announced by President Trump and stated that they were larger than expected. Surveys indicated a sharp decline in confidence among consumers coming off the heels of a global stock market turmoil. 

Powell warned that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation and slower growth–both are effects our in class economic theories and discussion have led us to. All in all, it seems that effects are still highly uncertain but that the US economy remains in a solid position. And in true Powell fashion he said that the Fed will be waiting patiently before making any adjustments to rates. 

In terms of how the President’s decision making power is related to the Federal Reserve, it is interesting seeing the independent dynamics play out. The Fed is an independent central bank whose decisions do not have to be approved by the president and the President has power over the Fed in terms of who they appoint to the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate. I am curious how potential political powers could affect the economic landscape moving forward and if there will be any “shows of force” that have seemed to be popular in these early months. 

Inflation Anxiety and Job Market Fears Amid Trade War

 According to a survey conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, American consumers are growing increasingly uneasy about inflation, unemployment, and the stock market as global trade tensions increase. The survey found that 44% of respondents now expect the unemployment rate to be higher one year from now which would be the highest percentage since early COVID-19. Inflation expectations for next year also jumped to 3.6%, the highest level since October 2023. Market confidence has also taken a hit as well. Only 33.8% of respondents expect stocks to be higher in one year from now. Expectations for cost of food, rent, and medical care also continue to climb, demonstrating the expansive impact that tariffs have on the economy. 

The survey's results show the broader economic fragility that is being shaped by the ongoing trade war. While market-based inflation remains relatively contained, public perception tells a different story. Consumers may begin to cut back on spending if they anticipate worsening economic conditions. With President Trump's tariff announcements continuing to add fuel to the unstable environment, consumer and business confidence are extremely fragile.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/unemployment-fears-hit-worst-levels-since-covid-fed-survey-shows.html

China’s first-quarter GDP tops estimates at 5.4% as growth momentum continues amid tariff worries

 China's economy grew by 5.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations. This growth was driven by strong industrial production, infrastructure investment, and a surge in exports ahead of newly imposed U.S. tariffs. However, escalating trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs reaching up to 145% and China's retaliatory tariffs of 125%, are expected to slow China's economic growth in the coming quarters. Analysts have downgraded China's full-year growth forecasts, with UBS projecting a decline to 3.4%, citing significant challenges to exports and overall economic stability. In response, Beijing is implementing stimulus measures, such as infrastructure spending and consumer incentives, to bolster domestic demand amidst a prolonged property slump and weak consumer confidence.

​https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/chinas-first-quarter-gdp-growth-at-as-trade-war-heats-up.html

Inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected; core at 4-year low

    Inflation remained subdued thanks to falling energy prices, with gasoline dropping by 6.3 and the overall energy index declining by 2.4. Food prices rose by 4 for the month, with eggs surging 5.9 and up 60.4 year-over-year. Shelter prices, a persistent inflation driver, increased by just 0.2 in March and increased by 4 over the past year. Furthermore, despite the cooling inflation, stock futures pointed to a sharp drop at market opening, and Treasury yields declined. Although Trump campaigned to curb inflation, progress was limited in early 2025. Donald Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but Fed officials remain cautious due to ongoing policy uncertainty, with markets expecting a rate cut no earlier than June. The CPI came in softer than expected, which typically signals cooling inflation. Kay Haigh emphasizes that the CPI data may be backward-looking, particularly in light of recent changes in trade policy, which means that he is likely referring to new or increased tariffs. In addition, tariffs can lead to cost-push inflation, where higher import prices trickle down to consumer prices. Despite these trade policy concerns, futures markets didn’t budge much. Finally, this suggests that traders are still betting that inflation will stay contained or that the Fed will prioritize stimulus to support growth. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/inflation-rate-eases-to-2point4percent-in-march-lower-than-expected.html

 

Harvard has $2.2 billion in grants frozen by Trump
administration after rejecting demands

In this article, the Trump administration announces it is freezing $2.2 billion in grants to Harvard University. The stated reason centers on concerns about antisemitism on campus and frustration with Harvard’s refusal to comply with new federal requirements. Those requirements include eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs and screening international students for ideological stances such as support for terrorism or antisemitism. Harvard’s president, Alan Garber, rejects these demands as unconstitutional, insisting that the government has no right to dictate how a private university manages its admissions, hires faculty, or structures academic programs.

In response, the General Services Administration and Department of Education confirm that they will suspend billions of dollars in grants and contracts. They cite Harvard’s alleged failure to protect Jewish students as part of their rationale. However, Harvard emphasizes that the federal support it has received over nearly a century has led to countless breakthroughs in medicine, engineering, and science work that could be compromised by the funding freeze. While the university says it remains willing to discuss its ongoing efforts to combat antisemitism, it refuses to agree to demands that it views as beyond the government’s lawful authority. Meanwhile, the White House warns that any institution violating federal civil rights laws or refusing to meet similar directives risks losing taxpayer funding an approach it has also taken with Columbia, Cornell, and Northwestern.

link

Apple regains $3 trillion market cap after Trump exempts tariffs on iPhones

Apples shares rose more than 2% on Monday and pushed the company's market cap back above three trillion. Trump exempted tariffs on phones, computers, and chips which would clearly increase Apple's value. Trumps purpose of doing this was solely because the majority of these project are manufactured in China and other Asian countries. The exemptions on these imports is going to save Apple billions in costs. Trump wants to help Apple because they are the most valued publicly trading company in the U.S. and experienced an 11% drop in the 1st quarter of 2023. However, it seems a little unfair towards the rest of the market. It feels like favoritism and undermining the principle of a level playing field. I hope to see iPhone costs go down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/apple-regains-3-trillion-market-cap-after-trump-exempts-iphone-tariff.html

Harvard Refuses to Comply with the Trump Administration

 

    The Trump administration has been demanding that Harvard must overhault its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies which potentially could lost the university nine billion in federal funding. The Trump administration since the beginning of the year has made extensive efforts to eliminate all diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in addition to reporting foreign students that are found in violation of campus rules. Harvard president claims the Trump administrations demands as “unlawful” and infringes on the universities constitutional rights. Harvard's defiance has gathered support from the academic community and will hopefully led for the administration to face legal challenges for their actions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/us/harvard-trump-reject-demands.html

Americans Fear Sharp Rise in Unemployment Amid Tariff Uncertainty

     Unemployment concerns are rising sharply among American workers, with a recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showing that the average expectation for a higher U.S. unemployment rate one year from now jumped to 44 percent in March. This marks the highest level since April 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The perceived likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next 12 months also increased to 15.7 percent, with the sharpest rise among households earning less than $50,000 annually. Meanwhile, the average probability of voluntarily leaving one’s job rose only slightly to 18 percent, suggesting increased job insecurity and caution about switching roles in an uncertain economy.

    These rising concerns come despite recent labor market strength, as the March jobs report showed an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent and 228,000 new jobs added. However, the Federal Reserve and some Wall Street economists expect conditions to weaken over the coming years. The Fed raised its unemployment forecast for 2025 to 4.4 percent, and JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli projects a rate as high as 5.2 percent. Inflation expectations are also climbing, with the NY Fed survey showing a rise in the year-ahead inflation outlook to 3.6 percent. While recent data indicated a temporary slowdown in inflation, economists warn that newly enacted tariffs, particularly those targeting China, could soon reverse that trend and contribute to a period of stagflation—slowing growth, persistent inflation, and rising unemployment that continues to weigh heavily on consumer and investor sentiment.

source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-braced-for-biggest-unemployment-rate-jump-since-the-pandemic-as-tariffs-muddy-outlook-150803197.html

Stock futures rise after a wild week as traders weigh surprise China tariff exemption: Live updates

    Stocks increased this Sunday following President Trump's recent tariff announcements. The decision to exempt smartphones, computers, and semiconductors from new reciprocal tariffs provided temporary relief to tech firms, although uncertainty remains due to suggestions from the administration that these exemptions could change. Tariffs bouncing back and forth create market anxiety around trade policy and its potential economic impact. You never know what will happen randomly and how much you have to chance your operating systems just to get the tariff changed back. Looking forward, the stability of the U.S. market hinges on developments in trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China, and continued Federal Reserve responses to changes.

Stock market today: Live updates

American shoppers hit with tariff surcharge on receipts and feeling the impact of trade war

 On their receipts, many American shoppers are already noticing new taxes that are referred to as "tariff surcharges." Businesses are attempting to offset the high import duties, specifically the 145% charge on Chinese goods, which is why this is taking place. While some businesses charge a percentage of purchases, others are imposing straight up flat fees. The CEO of Amazon also stated that in order to cover these additional charges, third party vendors will now probably be increasing their prices. Products ranging from cars parts even down to clothes are being severely impacted by this. In my opinion this just goes to show  how bad trade policies will be impacting the general public. The fact that so many households are already experiencing the burden of inflation only proves to me that these policies are having more negative short term effects than positive ones. https://nypost.com/2025/04/13/business/american-consumers-hit-with-tariff-surcharges-amid-trade-war/

Trump Administration Adds to Tariff Uncertainty

More confusion has been added to the Trump Administration’s tariff plans, as exemptions to items such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors have been called into question by President Trump and his advisors. It was suggested that the exemptions would be partially or completely reversed in the coming weeks. In a social media post, President Trump wrote that there are no tariff exemptions, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the exemptions were temporary. This comes as the exemptions were revealed in technical guidance issued on Friday by US Customs and Border Protection and were confirmed by the White House. These statements are simply and more uncertainty to a tense economic situation. It will be interesting to see how the markets respond. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/trump-commerce-chief-says-not-like-a-permanent-sort-of-exemption-for-phones-computers.html

The Master Plan for Cities Around Augusta

 With the Master's Tournament finishing up this Sunday, you can see how much wealth is attracted to Augusta, Georgia, every year. Whether it be the tickets that are thousands of dollars, or the cheap concessions when you get in the gates of Augusta National, the whole tournament is a marketing and economic masterpiece.

Cities surrounding Augusta have said the tournament's economic impact is around $1 million annually. Patrons stay even a few hours away from the course during the event, leading to a boost in local economies all over the state of Georgia. It leads to an opportunity for these other cities to show off what they have to offer as well.

Even venturing out of the state, all the way to Greenwood, South Carolina notices the impacts. They host golf-themed events and ensure all the golf apparel and equipment is stocked up, as they find that is what most attendees of the event are looking for.

Masters Tournament makes great impact on Upstate city