Touchdown! Super Bowl brings big economic victory to Las Vegas

    The Superbowl was held at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Superbowl brought in an estimated $500 million in revenue. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority said that number could be lower than what future economic impact reports state. Analysts predicted around 330,000 people would visit Las Vegas for the game and its festivities. But it's now reported that the number could reach as high as 450,000. Spending over the weekend could reach as high as $1.1 billion. Steve Hill, president and CEO of the LVCVA stated, “Anecdotally, it looks like the estimates that we’ve been putting out are gonna be a little conservative,” also, “Just talking to the properties about how the week went for them — better than expected, which expectations were pretty high. So, we’re pretty happy about that.”

    There were 300 events in the days leading up to and on Sunday. Chief marketing officer Kate Wik during a presentation said that more than 100 national and international broadcast stations were on Radio Row — a media area in the Super Bowl run-up. The event generated an estimated 14,000 news stories with more than 5 billion domestic impressions. Nevada sportsbooks took in a historic amount wagered, $185.6 million in bets. TV viewership was 123.4 million viewers, according to CBS Sports. More than 202 million viewers watched at least some of the game. 

Link: Touchdown! Super Bowl brings big economic victory to Las Vegas (msn.com)

British Retail Rebound Provides Some Hope for Recession-hit Economy

Sales recovered 3.4% in Britain from December according to the Office for National Statistics which is the best monthly gain they have seen since April of 2021. This has provided hope for economists that the nation's recession will be shorter than they had originally expected. This increase in sale was fairly uniform across all sectors with food shops specifically seeing the largest jump at 3.9%. 

The latest figures also show the British economy has officially entered a recession after a 0.3% decline in GDP in the fourth quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the third. In December Britain saw their biggest monthly decline in sales since January of 2021 at 3.3%, meaning even after the large recovery in sales seen this month they are still 1.3% below their pre-pandemic levels. Economist Joe Maher believes the uptick in sales indicates the worst could be behind them and the combination of falling inflation and rising wages will allow for a good chance of recovery.

The outlook this month is only semi-positive as growth figures are down, however inflation seems steady and December saw a healthy job report in December. Economists also note that monthly data are very volatile and the sales jump lat month really only worked to offset the decline that was seen in December and restore the level seen in November. This is consistent with the stagnation seen through the last 18 months in Britain, however economists believe this could be the start of a momentum shift that leads to a real increase in activity in the retail sector. 

Source - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/16/uk-retail-rebound-provides-glimmer-of-light-for-recession-hit-nation.html

Japan slips into recession

 After contracting for two straight quarters, Japan's economy unexpectedly entered a recession, primarily as a result of low domestic demand. This has delayed expectations for when the Bank of Japan might end its negative interest rate policy and surprised economists who were expecting growth.

In the final quarter of 2023, the GDP shrank at an annual rate of 0.4%, after declining 3.3% in the previous quarter. Spending reductions by both companies and households caused Japan to fall out of third place in the world economy.

The Bank of Japan's intentions to raise interest rates for the first time since 2007 are complicated by this less successful than anticipated performance. The recession throws a wrench in the central bank's plans to end its negative rate policy, which it has been discussing.

Private consumption fell by 0.2% as households tightened their budgets in response to growing living expenses. For the tenth consecutive month, household spending decreased in December compared to the same month last year, with wage increases falling short of inflation. The previous quarter's business spending was likewise weak, declining by 0.1%.

In the upcoming months, there is a risk that the yen's reversal to levels not seen since November will increase cost-push inflationary pressure. Japan's yen saw minimal movement in relation to the US dollar following Thursday's data, trading at 150.40.

Growth was boosted by net exports by 0.2 percentage points. December saw a spike in exports, driven mostly by cars going to the US and equipment for making chips going to China. As a subset of service exports, inbound tourism also continued to grow, with December seeing a record number of visitors.

Looking ahead, given that growth is predicted to slow down in some of Japan's major trading partners in 2024, external demand may become a less dependable source of support for growth.


Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-14/japan-s-economy-slips-into-recession-clouding-boj-s-policy-path

 

Brazil: Tackling Corruption

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), despite foreign bribery schemes being on the rise in Brazil, the country has made some progress. According to the report, Brazil has implemented legislation against corporate bribery and taken enforcement actions against large-scale foreign bribery cases, including utilizing leniency agreements.

The report, however, raises a concern about Brazil's ability to effectively charge individuals, noting that only 28 of 60 foreign bribery allegations have been investigated, and that only three companies have received leniency agreements since 2014. OECD suggests Brazil should increase its efforts to prevent foreign bribery, especially in the private sector, by prosecuting more individuals. Brazilian policymakers should enhance efforts to deter foreign bribery, including bringing more individuals to justice and improving whistleblower protections.

The report also highlights challenges in enforcing anti-bribery laws, such as the lack of convictions of people in foreign bribery cases. It highlights the first criminal anti-bribery proceeding to last nearly a decade in which eight of nine defendants were found not guilty due to the country's statute of limitations. It is recommended by the OECD that Brazil amend the statute of limitations through legislative action or other means to address these issues.

 

Even as inflation wanes, voters still worry about getting by.

An AP news article titled It’s a mismatch on the economy. Even as inflation wanes, voters still worry about getting by, covering economic worries despite a relatively strong economy. The article covers the economic woes of the people of the city of Grand Rapids, MI. During the poll, the city of 200,000, responded rather negatively to the US economy, despite recent inflation, production, and employment numbers coming out rather strong compared to the rest of the world. The article highlighted several reviews from the inhabitants of Grand Rapids, varying from political affiliation, job, and family size. However, all interviews reported a negative outlook on the economy, mainly around housing and food costs. I think this article is a good example of how the average American is impacted by the economy, while regulators only run off of indicators and macro concerns. While regulators, investors, and the wealthy are celebrating the state of the economy, price levels have kept the rest of America from feeling the same about the economy. The article gives a good parallel on how theory and real-life interact with each other.

Link to the Article: https://apnews.com/article/economy-voters-stress-biden-michigan-2024-election-92071eacbbb7a39f12e838ec9daaa51c

ESPN, College Football Playoff reach new TV contract extension

 

The CFP has decided to stay with ESPN for the coming years. The Athletic reported that the sports division of the Walt Disney Company and the power brokers behind the playoffs reached a massive extension on their current broadcast agreement. Starting in 2026, ESPN will pay $7.8 billion over 6 seasons for the rights of the playoff.

While there are two years left on the current deal, many questions circulated wether ESPN would want to or be able to commit towards keeping the most important games in college football. What makes next season different is it will be the first year of the expanded 12 team playoff, changing from the original 4 team playoff.  ESPN who already has deals with UFC, Top Rank Boxing, major tennis, hockey, etc.. decided that the CFP will be worth the buy.

Another note that was made is that ESPN has the choice to sublicense games, which would most likely be first round, to another network or digital player. This is perhaps what the future of streaming looks like, with Warner Bros. Discovery and Fox comes into play. As this is all happening, nothing T.V related will be set in stone until the Pac-12 is settled, which right now is a conference shrinking to two members and is in danger of losing its seat at the Power 5 table.

Russia’s economy ‘in for very tough times’ despite improved growth outlook, IMF managing director says

Russia’s economy ‘in for very tough times’ despite improved growth outlook, IMF managing director says

link- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/12/russias-economy-in-for-very-tough-times-despite-improved-outlook-imf.html

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that the Russian economy, despite receiving a growth upgrade, is still facing significant challenges. The IMF recently raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth from 1.1% to 2.6% for this year, attributing it to the country's investments in its war economy since the invasion of Ukraine. However, Georgieva emphasized that this growth comes at a cost, with a significant outflow of skilled workers and reduced access to technology due to sanctions. She believes that the Russian economy is in for tough times ahead, despite the seemingly positive growth forecast.

Global military spending hits record $2.2 trillion

 The latest report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) paints a worrying picture of instability and an era of contested power. According to the IISS, global military spending reached a new high of $2.2 trillion, a 9% increase since 2022. The reason for this is because of recent events such as Russia invading Ukraine, China’s military modernization, conflict in the Middle East, and military coups in Africa. 

The war on Ukraine pressures other nations to increase defense budgets. The member nations of NATO increased spending by 32%, making this the second consecutive year of growth and contributing to over 50% of the world's military spending. Because of the war, Russia has increased military spending by 30%, which accounted for 7.5% of the country's GDP. China has increased its military spending for the 29th consecutive year, due to its ambition of creating a “world-class” military by the middle of the century. 

The United States continues to be the world's top military spender. In 2023, the United States had a military budget of $900 billion, which is greater than the top 15 countries combined. Compared to previous years, from a GDP standpoint, the United States military spending is 3.36% less than in previous eras such as the Cold War. 

The global arms race raises a serious concern about the political state of the world. Increased military spending and an increase in tension between nations increase the risk of international conflict. Increasing spending on defense systems also means cutting back on other areas such as healthcare, education, and public services. 

https://apple.news/AHMy7wdLnT--W8cEf-acVJQ

China's market crash could be the last straw for many foreign investors who leave permanently, think tank says

     China has been taking hits recently and now China's stock market decline could spell disaster for the country. With the decline of the stock markets, foreign investors have been pulling out en masse and they are likely not to come back. China's firms collectively have also suffered a 7 trillion dollar loss since early 2021 which has and will continue to greatly affect offshore traders. 

    China, which was originally a staple for stable growth for investors, will now change course because of these issues and become a beacon for fast profits. This will continue to contribute to the volatile funds swing that permeates through modern Chinese markets. There has been a response to these issues as Beijing has responded to the financial stress by including state-backed purchases as well as restricted access to offshore markets and curbs on short-selling.

    One of the leading concerns for China is its property market which accounts for most of the country's GDP. It has recently sustained a mass of default waves with real estate giants forced to liquidate. There was also a crackdown on the tech sector in 2020 which led to more investors pulling out. Net foreign inflows last year reached only $6.1 billion, the lowest level since 2017.

    And even without all the underlying issues China continues to impose worry by its intentions for stock investors. They have made various announcements directed at financial markets that suggest less tolerance for business as usual.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-crash-real-estate-property-stock-market-foreign-investors-2024-2