The March Jobs Numbers Show the Economy Is Sound, but Far From Invincible

The article shows that the March jobs numbers are disappointed since the U.S. only added 103,000 jobs when the numbers added in February 326,000 and the previous average number is 202,000 in 2018.  Currently, the unemployment rate is around 4.1% which is a very comfortable number, so the news expected that the future improvement in the labor market would be showed in the form of increasing labor force instead of decreasing unemployment rate. In other words, there would be more people who are used to not look for jobs decide to work in the future. 

Under the influence of the trade war, I would expect a large increase in the labor force and I am curious that how the real future labor market would be. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/upshot/the-march-jobs-numbers-show-the-economy-is-sound-but-far-from-invincible.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness-economy

Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow: US economic growth could hit 5%, at least for a short period

I thought this article was interesting for several reasons. First, I think that a 5% annual growth rate in GDP for this year is an achievable goal. But like Larry Kudrow mentioned, this growth is not sustainable forever. I also thought it was interesting that he said that we are down by several trillion dollars from where we should be based on the long term trend of GDP. I initially thought this wasn't true, but looking at the maximum chart over the last 50+ years it makes sense: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp. Lastly, I found it strange that the author continued to mention that this growth could help us recover from the financial recession. I thought is was bizarre because I've been under the impression that we have been recovered from the recession for a few years now. Overall, I feel that Kudrow is very optimistic with this 5% annual GDP for 2018, but it is an attainable goal based on the recent performance of the economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/05/trump-economic-advisor-larry-kudlow-us-economic-growth-could-hit-5-percent-at-least-for-a-short-period.html

White House Tries to Tamp Down Trade War Fears as China Retaliates

A couple of weeks ago, President Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports which is roughly $50 billion worth of products. Now, the White House announced yesterday that this was not the start of a trade war as China responded with a $50 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. After everything is taken into calculation, the United States' tariff affects roughly 10 percent of Chinese exports to the United States while the Chinese tariff covers roughly 25 percent of American exports. If the tariffs were to stop here then it would be safe to argue that there is no trade war going on, but a couple of policy moves in an attempt to gain political support. However, after the White House announced yesterday there was not a trade war, President Trump asked for $100 billion worth of extra tariffs to be implemented on China. This could be the start of the end of the United States. A trade war typically does not result in growth, but instead halts it. In fact, most economies experience a recession when trade wars occur. It will be interesting to see how these polices take root as they come into play.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/business/the-united-states-is-starting-a-trade-war-with-china-now-what.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/trump-orders-consideration-of-100-billion-in-new-china-tariffs

Most Powerful Lobbyist in Trumps Washington

This article explores the life and work of Brian Ballard, who Politico is calling the most powerful lobbyist in Washington right now. Ballard was a fundraiser for President Trump's political campaign and now works to try to get international governments interests represented in the West Wing.

This article is a great example of the power of interest groups, as we discussed during the US unit. However, here the interest groups are mostly other political groups and other countries - when the President won't take information in from conventional sources, it makes sense that governments would think it worth the money to hire a friend of the President's to put their issues in front of him.



https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/04/02/most-powerful-lobbyist-in-trump-washington-217759

Impact of Oil Spill in Indonesia

The Indonesian government has declared a state of emergency after an oil spill has continued to spread right off of the country's coast. The oil eventually caught fire producing thick black smoke. The repercussions of an oil spill like this go beyond the immediate fatalities. A significant portion of Indonesia's exports consist of seafood- with the oil spill it goes without saying that not only does the oil spill kill marine life but also, seafood may be contaminated and not fit for consuming. Inadvertently, the fishing sector suffers, especially traditional fisherman who depend on seafood as their daily livelihood. The oil spill may possibly ruin ships and fishing equipment too. Indonesia's tourism industry may also take a blow due to this, with one of it's main attractions being its beautiful beaches which may be contaminated. Moreover, businesses that earn revenue from recreational services such as jet ski rentals or even restaurants near the beach may also suffer a loss in profits.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/04/asia/indonesia-balikpapan-oil-spill-state-of-emergency/index.html

Japanese Aluminium Trade Group Calls Upon Trump Administration to Drop Aluminium Tariffs

After consideration of the $50 Billion tariff by the US placed on China, many have wondered what it would entail going forward in terms of the market, especially those targeting the aluminum market. Some individuals spoke on the possible threat this may induce on other markets considering in example, China is known for being “one of the largest buyers of US crops,” (CNN). However, in an interesting turn of events, the US has actually sanctioned higher demand in the Japanese Aluminum trades; and in turn created a higher appreciation than previously predicted of the Yen when compared to the US dollar. Japan is currently in between negotiations of seeking lower tariffs from the US, as they were not among the group of countries that were exempt, since the Trump administration’s focus was to hit China hard. Even without the tariff exemption however, imagine the strength gained and position in the market as a response following the plans for Japan to become the primary suppliers. I find the times quite intriguing of when it comes to: how one country imposing higher tariffs hitting a second country, will then create this large of an appreciation on a third country’s currency –especially since learning of the Plaza Accord. Yes, at that time (in 1985), the focus may have been between the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the Japanese Yen for the prosperity of the market and its advancement. In a way, this has provided a similar boost to the future growth in market, and at the same time, has appreciated the Yen without depreciating another currency. It doesn’t feel too surprising (shutting down one opportunity of a market means moving to a second provider at a different price), but it certainly does bring an interesting change to the trade game, and the ever curiosity of what may come.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/03/news/economy/us-tariffs-china/index.html

https://aluminiuminsider.com/japanese-aluminium-trade-group-calls-upon-trump-administration-to-drop-aluminium-tariffs/

Chinese Tariff On American Ginseng 'Definitely Concerning,' Wisconsin Farmer Says

I heard this story on the radio this afternoon and found it especially interesting. China's tariffs on American food products in retaliation to the steel and aluminum tariffs are greatly affecting the production of Ginseng, an herb that we usually associate as coming from Asia, and that is used in herbal teas and remedies. The farmer interviewed in this story says that last year, Wisconsin farmers shipped almost $30 million of Ginseng to China, and until the 1990's, produced 95% of Ginseng worldwide. The report brings up questions of whether the tariffs on US products are being targeted to politically important production areas (because in this case, this district in Wisconsin is represented by Paul Ryan and also voted for Trump), but I also wonder what effect this will have on the Ginseng markets, since the overwhelming majority of supply is now going to cost at least 15% more.

http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/04/03/china-tariffs-ginseng-wisconsin

Coal power company files for bankruptcy and asks Trump for bailout

The Akron-based power company FirstEnergy has recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for their coal and nuclear divisions. However, FirstEnergy is seeking a government bailout through a lesser-known section of federal law typically reserved for natural disasters. Despite Trump's insistence on using coal power, the coal industry has faced severe pressure from the natural gas industry. Asking for a bailout from a fund used for natural disaster relief is a gross misuse of tax-payers' money. The coal industry has declined for good reason, as it is a very unclean source of energy. Should the Trump administration choose to bailout FirstEnergy's subsidies, I believe that they should only bailout the nuclear division. Despite many people's concerns, nuclear power is one of the cleanest forms of energy, and it should have priority over coal.

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/02/investing/firstenergy-coal-bankruptcy-trump/index.html

China retaliates against Trump tariffs with levy on US food imports

This article is about how China has implemented tariffs of up to 25% on U.S food imports in response to Trumps tariffs on steel and aluminum.   The article suggested that China and the U.S should resolve their issues through negotiation and dialogue because as the world’s two largest economies, they should be cooperating.  Although the two have been retaliating against each other, China's tariffs do not cover soybeans, the US’s biggest exports to China, indicating that it does not wish to start a huge trade war.  It can be predicted that the U.S and China will continue to retaliate against each other, but for how long and to what extent is unknown.