How the pandemic made us more adventurous drinkers

People are well aware of many industries that were impacted dramatically by the COVID-19 pandemic such as aviation, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, etc. Only a few pay close attention to the alcohol industry. While many suspect a cut back from alcohol due to the shutdown of bars and restaurants along with fewer social interactions where alcohol is involved, alcohol consumption has spiked during the pandemic.

One of the biggest drink trends is that people are becoming more willing to try adventurous drinks and drinks from countries that usually don’t attract mainstream consumers. Odd things like peanut butter or banana-flavored whiskey have since become very popular, so do Austrian and Greek wines. For example, the Wine Society's sales of Greek wines totaled £500,000 in 2019, rising to £700,000 last year, and £2m so far in 2021. Meanwhile, demand for its Austrian bottles increased from £900,000 in 2019, to £1.4m in 2020, and £2.1m this year. Many liquor store owners suspect that it is because people are trying alcohol from the countries (in this case, Austria and Greece) that they were going to travel to but canceled the plan due to COVID. Besides, people have more time and energy to be creative with their drink menus since they are stuck at home with nothing better to do. And alcohol with odd flavors sometimes brings pleasant surprises to boring quarantine times.

Not only are people more adventurous in their drinking choices, but also their drinking habits. Before COVID-19, more than 25 percent of American adults admitted binge drinking, according to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. In the first few weeks of lockdowns, alcohol sales jumped 54 percent over the previous year.

Easier access to alcoholic beverages is playing an important role in the phenomenon of increasing alcohol consumption: almost every state relaxing its alcohol laws in 2020 in an effort to keep local economies afloat, and liquor stores are now classified as a COVID-19 essential service in all but 3 states. 

Credit: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58992784

Inflation Reaching Historic Levels as Supply Chain Issues Linger

In the month of October, we have seen the highest rise of inflation in the last 30 years as we continue to deal with the effects of COVID-19 economically. This even tops the inflation growth rates that we’ve been experiencing for the past 12 months as the economy roars back. Compounded with supply chain issues and rising fuel prices, this is a dangerous place for the economy to stay at for the long term. Frankly, this issue is layered with many endemic problems stacked on top of each other that will take time to resolve.

During the pandemic, many people were able to save a lot more money due to the incoming stimulus checks to keep families afloat. But savings also came from much lower consumer spending during the pandemic. This ranged from less luxury goods purchased in fear of what the future holds to reduced spending on gasoline as most people stayed home. This sudden wave of spending once vaccinations have caught supply chains off guard from trying to keep the lights on to booming levels of business never seen before. This has created a bottleneck effect at critical points in our supply chain including our ports and distribution centers. Now, the price of fuel is going up as consumer demand for products shipped goes up as well. Sadly for the Federal Reserve, the effects of monetary policy changes will have limited impact to combat this worrying inflation level. Raising interest rates to cool off businesses will serve to slow down the economy to give supply chains an easier time to deal with the mountain of orders. But the real solutions come from resolving the issues at our ports and getting products onto trucks faster to get products to consumers.

Unfortunately, I don’t think we have seen the full extent of the damage that this blockage in our supply chain will cause. These shortages will continue to dictate the future of our economy and as a result the global economy for years to come.

Credit: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/business/economy/consumer-price-inflation-october.html

Job Creation on the Rise

Last month, October, the economy saw a significant amount of new jobs. Employers were able to create approximately 571,000 new jobs.  This number exceeds expectations. After coming off a hot month of September with new jobs hitting 568,000, they expected to see job creation take a step back to only about 400,000 new jobs for the month of November. Clearly, the economy exceeded its expectations.

These job creation numbers are very interesting considering the times that we are in. Right now there is a labor shortage in our economy. There is a significant amount of open jobs that are just not filled. Businesses are constantly looking to hire more people. They have had to resort to incentives such as flexible schedules and higher wages. The labor has a majority of the power right now in the economy. For that reason, it is very strange to see new job creation numbers exceeding expectations. 

What are your thoughts on why job creation is continuing to rise at such a high rate considering businesses are already struggling to find labor?

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2021-11-03/adp-employers-added-571-000-jobs-in-october-beating-expectations

Crisis in Nigeria

Inflation in Nigeria is hitting its record high this year causing small businesses to squeeze. Cost of raw materials, food, fuel, and etc. keep rising with no sign of coming to a flat top. Small businesses have to cut down on their menu items and cost of production to sustain or they have to pass the high costs as prices to customers, who are also struggling. Nigeria’s economy shrank 1.8 percent in 2020, it is the sharpest decline since 1983. According to International Monetary Fund, Nigeria is expected to grow only 2.5% this year. These rising prices are affecting the growth rate as well. Monetary policy and exchange rate management has further damaged the situation. The central bank had devalued the currency, causing high inflation rate. This is a serious problem in Nigeria because most of their products are dependent on the exchange rate because they import them. All of this has worsened small businesses in Nigeria which makes up 96% of the business and 84% of jobs. These businesses are also reluctant to raise prices in attempt to transfer costs to the customers because they are in fear that people will learn to live without these products are find alternatives. Experts predict recovering from this crisis is going to be far from difficult for the economy of Nigeria, and not so soon. 

Source:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/11/8/as-inflation-bites-nigeria-small-businesses-struggle-to-survive

U.S. Recovering At a Rate Biden Likes

 U.S. President Joe Biden said that the U.S. is recovering from the COVI-19 pandemic faster and stronger than expected. This came from payroll gains which made the labor market appear to be back on track. Those payroll gains were nonfarm payrolls increasing 531,000 last month which beat an estimate of 450,000. Biden said that the economy is working for more Americans and that America is getting back to work as the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. He then claimed that this recovery is historical. This all comes after Biden's announcement of moving parts in his Build Back Better programs and infrastructure bill compiling his economic agenda. Biden will look to use the positive recovery news to influence his economic agenda bills to pass as much as he can. 

Japanese Economic Stimulus

 The economic recession caused by Covid has hit Japan hard, and the Japanese government is taking unprecedented actions to help with the recovery efforts. In order to stimulate the slow economy, Japan plans to put a 30 trillion Yen recovery stimulus into the economy. This is comparable to about $250 billion. While this is not comparable to the US stimulus's in size, it is comparable in its aim. By giving money directly to families with children, Japan plans to give 100,000 Yen per child to families in hope of stimulating both the consumption of goods and services back to their level pre-Covid.

Financing the bill will be quite different from US methods as well. Last fiscal year, Japan had a sizeable surplus that will be rolled over into this year, and the rest will be covered by issuing new debt. This is not surprising, since Japan spends a lot compared to its GDP. This large of bill is not common in Japan and the aftermath of the big purchase may have positive and negative effects for the future that we can not predict. 

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-economic-stimulus-seen-topping-265-bln-require-new-debt-kyodo-2021-11-08/

Biden Admin considering vaccine mandate for business with fewer than 100 employees

 The occupational safety and health administration said they were "seeking comment" about whether businesses with fewer than 100 employees should be subject to the COVID-19 vaccine and the testing mandates it is also implementing on bug businesses. This new requirement will force businesses with over 100 employees to mandate the vaccine for their employees or the employees will have to wear a mask and get test for Covid weekly. Since this has been announced administration is now considering implementing this for businesses under 100 employees as well. As of now the administration believes they need more time to access the effects this could have on smaller employers before they go an implement the policy. Personally I find this to be a shock that administration is considering this. considering the labor shortage that is effecting the whole United States, I feel as if making it harder to have one enter the work force is counter productive in trying to lower the unemployment rate. The most recent unemployment numbers had shown a decrease which is good, but could that also be because less people are looking for jobs given a vaccine requirement?

Eurozone Economy Outpaces U.S., China, But Tougher Times Lie Ahead

 

The eurozone economy expanded rapidly, and mainly this was due to the loosening of social restrictions and widespread vaccinations that powered the region’s comeback from the pandemic. However, the supply-chain issues and the increase in prices are expected to hold growth back. Eurozone consists of 19 nations, and the Gross Domestic Product for the 19-nations grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.1% in the three months. This is significantly faster than the 2% growth rate by the United States and around 1% for China over the same period. Analysts predict that the U.S. economy is expected to grow in the coming months, and they also predict that the growth for the eurozone will decline. The eurozone economy grew by 2.2% in the third quarter. The large manufacturing economies of the eurozone such as Germany and Italy are more dependent on international trade than is the U.S., where the service sector makes up a large portion of the economy. Due to supply chain issues, the manufacturers struggle to secure supplies and raw materials. The initial boost from consumption as Europeans returned to restaurants and began traveling again, the effect is wearing off and now some governments have started to reintroduce social restrictions as the cooler weather leads to a rise in COVID-19 cases. France and Italy were the top performers of the eurozone economies, followed by Germany and Spain. The growth in France was mainly due to the easing of covid restrictions, leaving economic output just 0.1% short of its pre-pandemic level. Whereas in Spain, the growth was held back by a decline in consumption and economic output remains around 6% below its pre-pandemic level.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-economy-outpaces-u-s-china-but-tougher-times-lie-ahead-11635505779

Black Friday.... Boring?!?

 November is a good month, not just because we get a needed week-long break before plunging into finals, and we get to see our family and friends on Thanksgiving, but also because of... Black Friday. Every year Hundreds of stores and retailers sell off inventory at low prices, sometimes at all-time lows that never will reoccur. However, due to supply chain issues and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019-2020, this may not be the case anymore.

A recent study by Stacy Widliltz of the SW Retail Advisor tracked retail chains and found out that at 90% of those stores promotions are down from that of 2020. Electronics is not as big as it was in 2020 being down from then almost 2%. Bigger stores like Target, Walmart, and Costco are still having the sale but will not have as good deals and products due to, you guessed it, supply shortage issues. Luckily, however, they are still able to give the sales as they are able to place orders earlier and have their own shipping charters. On the other hand,  companies like Nike inc. and Bed Bath & Beyond are suffering from shortages and delays in shipping, but will eventually have sales later on and steel in 2022.

Whether or not you decide to go out and shop on Black Friday is up to you but know that if you do, you shouldn't be expecting any good deals anytime soon.

source: https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/8612138668326220332/8051654966674824504

 COP26: Fossil fuel industry has largest delegation at climate summit

Campaigners at the COP26 have found that 503 people attending the conference have links to fossil fuel interests. These delegates are said to be [fossil fuel] lobbyists for oil and gas industries and campaigners want them banned from the summit. Campaigners are saying that the delegates are the reasons why 25 years of UN climate talks have not led to real cuts in global emissions.

Fossil fuel lobbyists are defined as people who are part of a delegation of a trade association or is a member of a group that represents the interests of oil and gas companies – this definition was created by Global Witness, Corporate Accountability, and other companies that did the research.

They found that:

                    i.             Fossil fuel lobbyists are members of two country delegations, Canada, and Russia.

                  ii.            The fossil fuel lobby at COP is larger than the 8 delegations from countries worst affected by climate change in the last 20 years.

                iii.            Over 100 fossil fuel companies are represented at COP, with 30 trade associations and membership organizations present.

                iv.             Fossil fuel lobbyists dwarf the UNFCCC’s official indigenous constituency by {approximately) two to one.

One of the largest groups identified as the International Emissions Trading Association, with 103 delegates present including 3 people from BP.

According to Global Witness, IETA is supported by major oil companies that promote offsetting and carbon trading as a way of allowing them to continue extracting oil and gas.

 I believe there should be fewer delegates that are from oil and gas companies because of their selfish interests, which would keep their businesses afloat. The summit needs to come up with more restrictions on these companies, not just carbon trading because that has not had any significant impact on the climate. These restrictions need to be stricter and have corresponding sanctions for any violations, in order to slow down the rate global warming. 

**COP26 is a United Nations climate change summit. COP stands for a conference of the parties and 26 highlights that this is the 26^th conference.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59199484

China’s long wait for a tax everyone loves to hate

 Apparently in the past China has never had any sort of property tax. It has experimented with the idea in cities like Shanghai but the Chinese president has now announced his support for property tax that is supposed too  "promote common prosperity".  According to the article China needs this tax because a lot of people avoid the personal income taxes and their value added taxes are to regressive to be effective. Also this property tax would help homes for being bought and held as second homes as people will be discouraged by the additional taxes. However these taxes will probably be extremely unpopular because who like to pay taxes and also they might feel the government wont spend the tax money well. Another worry is that these taxes wont have the desired effect of lowering prices as the trial of them in Shanghai did not have that effect. It will be interesting to see over time if these taxes work out and have an effect on the market as a whole. 

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/10/30/chinas-long-wait-for-a-tax-everyone-loves-to-hate

Congress Passes Joe Biden’s Infrastructure Bill

On November 5th congress passed an infrastructure bill totaling up to one trillion dollars. This bill will be used to update America’s aging infrastructure. Much of the United States’ infrastructure has not been touched since its origin over 100 years ago. America is constantly growing and changing so it is important that our buildings, bridges, roads, etc. do too. The allocations of the bill are as follows:

$2.5 Billion - Inland Waterways

$40 Billion - Fixing Bridges

$70 Billion - Passenger Rail

$65 Billion - Ensuring Americans have access to high-speed internet

The list does not stop there, and much will also be allocated to highways, airports, electricity grids, water pipes, etc.

This bill is Joe Bidens and the Democratic Party’s first major legislative success since the shorter stimulus package passed earlier this year. This bill constitutes half of Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda. 

Although America’s infrastructure is said to take $2.6 trillion dollars to build it up to a satisfactory level which this bill will not cover fully. This bill will be a great start in the right direction for a real difference. From 2022 to 2026 federal infrastructure spending as a percent of GDP will rise from 0.8% to about 1.3%. The impact that this may have on the United States is great. For every $100 billion dollars more spent on infrastructure, it may immediately boost growth by a tenth of a percentage point. This bill will also provide an opportunity for private investors to join the government’s efforts, which could both enlarge total spending and impose more financial discipline.

This is a step in the right direction for America’s infrastructure, but this will still be a challenging obstacle to overcome. Especially being that American’s are reluctant when it comes to being taxed compared to other rich countries, and the infrastructure is a direct result of taxes.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/joe-biden-passes-the-less-contentious-half-of-his-legislative-agenda/21806187

Wall Street 'permanently changed' by meme stocks, retail trading: star YouTube trader

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-permanently-changed-by-meme-stocks-retail-trading-star-you-tube-trader-164910032.html

By: Ines Ferré·Markets Reporter

If you have been following the stock market in the last year, you have seen some anomalies in the stock market as “meme stocks” have seen massive spikes in stock price. “Meme Stocks” refers to stocks that are not viewed as fundamentally sound stocks that have seen large spikes in price change due to discussion boards such as Reddit. These discussion boards will pick said stock and a wave of people will invest in the stock driving the price up artificially. When retail traders have been asked about this phenomenon they have said that the market favors hedge funds and big investors and this craze levels the playing field. The goal of this craze seems to make the market more transparent. Well-known stocks that have been involved in this craze have been AMC and GME. Despite both stocks falling from their highs, they still remain over 50% higher than they were pre-surge. The discussion board army adds an interesting factor to the stock market because it adds an element where if you are paying attention to the right discussion post you may have the ability to invest in a stock that may surge 80% in one day.

Brexit: 'Serious consequences' if Article 16 triggered, warns EU

 Brexit: 'Serious consequences' if Article 16 triggered, warns EU

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-59167024 

In the wake of Brexit, the UK and EU are still having trouble coming to an agreement for trade. Currently there is a Northern Ireland Protocol put in place by the Brexit term agreements that controls the flow of trade from Great Britain to Ireland. The products from Great Britain are taken to ports in Northern Ireland, and then move across the border into Ireland. The Protocol is causing difficulties for businesses and the EU is attempting to ease checks and and controls for the goods moving into Ireland. These changes have not been accepted by the UK and are causing issues between Great Britain and the EU. 

Great Britain has threatened to invoke Article 16, which invoked means that there would be a suspension of goods traveling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. This would lead to significant issues for Ireland, as they would not be receiving any goods from the UK. Irish officials are not fond of the Protocol in the first place but are even less fond of the thought of the UK invoking Article 16. I think that the UK needs to try harder to work the EU, as they were the ones who decided to leave. The United Kingdom knew when it left the EU that they would not be able to easily make new trade deals that benefitted them because the EU needs to crack down on Britain so that other countries don't try to leave as well.  

USA 2022 economic crisis

 The US will be facing another economic crisis in 2022 if the labor market shortage is not fulfilled. Ever since COVID - 19 and stimulus checks people have become comfortable living without jobs and hence there is a labor market shortage. Usually, this shortage is quickly overcome because there is only a short period where people can live without a pay check. However, over the past two years, during the global pandemic, Americans have been saving more than they have been spending, which is allowing them to stay without a job. 

About 51% of the firms have reported that they have labor shortages. Last year 52% reported that they are having trouble finding qualified candidates. This year 74% of businesses have reported the same thing. Businesses have increased the labor prices but this will increase the cost of living which will cause inflation. 

Here are some reasons why there is a labor shortage;

 - People are scared that the pandemic will hit again. 

 - The mask and vaccine mandate in workplaces has limited people to. getting jobs. 

- People are expecting higher salaries.

- Americans have become more selective with their job search. 

Experts suggest that if the USA goes into 2022 with this labor shortage then there is a serious threat to the economic growth of the country.

Source: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjvsa_m24b0AhV-pnIEHSTEDZIQxfQBKAB6BAgPEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2021%2F11%2F04%2Fperspectives%2Flabor-shortage-us-

Diwali sales break 10 year records in India

For the first time in 10 years, Diwali sales crossed 1.25 Trillion Indian Rupees (16.85 Billion USD). Sales majorly consisted of earthen lamps, candles, paper lamps, sweets, toys, clothing, foods, and so on. This growth in sales in those areas helped craftsmen, potters, chefs and small businesses.

Surprisingly, on most Diwalis, fireworks take up the highest share of sales, but recently, due to rise in online shopping and climate change advocacy and education, people are reducing expenditure on fireworks. Online retailers, especially gigantic ones like Amazon, Flipkart and JioMart do not by default sell fireworks. Climate change advocacy and literacy has also slumped fireworks expenditure.

India's festivities do not seem to be hampered by its rising inflation and slowly recovering economy. With supposedly India's biggest wedding season coming up, jewelry and clothing sales are predicted to skyrocket. Such boosts in economic activity should help heal the economy faster.

Article Link: https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/diwali-festive-sale-crosses-rs-1-25-trn-breaks-all-records-in-10-yrs-cait-121110500886_1.html

Also, taking a small tangent, on October 31, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) owned Global Times released an article detailing how boycotting Chinese products would hurt Indian economy, but as evident, India beat previous 10 years' records and shattered this article. The article outlines how Chinese products are good quality, cheap, and have helped grow Indian economy over many years. It weirdly mentions "India's GDP contracted an unprecedented 7.3 percent in the last financial year that ended in March 2021" but fails to recognize that India overshot expectations on its economic growth and is headed towards the endemic stage of the virus in the nation. 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1237749.shtml