IRS Layoffs May Delay Tax Refunds

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is laying off over 6,000 employees during the peak tax filing season. This decision is part of President Donald Trump's initiative to reduce government spending. The layoffs are expected to cause significant delays in processing tax refunds. Financial expert Armine Alajian highlighted that the strain on IRS resources would worsen the already challenging process for taxpayers. These job cuts specifically target the Small Business/Self-Employed Division. The layoffs follow Trump's executive orders to reduce the federal workforce and expenses, implemented with the help of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Critics argue that the cuts are counterproductive, potentially leading to greater losses in uncollected tax revenue. Taxpayers are advised to file electronically and as soon as possible to mitigate expected delays.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/wheres-my-tax-refund-irs-layoffs-impact-your-returns/

Eli Lilly’s Obesity Drug Profits Drive Bold Investments in High-Risk Diseases

 

Eli Lilly’s top-selling GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have transformed the company, increasing sales by nearly 60% since 2022 and driving its stock price up 268% over the past three years. With a market cap of $823 billion, Lilly is now the largest healthcare company in history. This financial success has given the company the resources to target diseases that many pharmaceutical firms avoid due to high costs and uncertain returns. Chief Scientific Officer Dan Skovronsky has emphasized Lilly’s commitment to tackling health issues that are “hiding in plain sight,” such as Alzheimer’s, ALS, chronic pain, heart disease, and addiction. By reinvesting its obesity drug profits into these complex medical challenges, Lilly aims to create long-term value for both patients and investors.

Lilly is also investing heavily in genetic medicine, an area facing major financial and scientific hurdles. In 2023, the company opened the $700 million Lilly Institute for Genetic Medicine in Boston to advance gene therapy, despite industry-wide struggles in drug delivery methods. If Lilly can overcome these challenges, it could lead to a new wave of high-value treatments. This strategy highlights a key lesson: reinvesting profits into high-risk, high-reward innovation can drive long-term financial growth while addressing critical public health issues. The success of Lilly’s investments will depend on scientific breakthroughs, but if they pay off, they could reshape both medicine and the pharmaceutical market.

source :  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/20/eli-lilly-to-take-big-swings-in-alzheimers-als-and-gene-therapy.html

Europe's Golden Economy Continues to Slide

 The German economy has found itself in a stagnant economy over the last few years, even tumbling and losing some needed output. The economy has shrunk for 2 years in a row now, essentially erasing any progress that they had made since COVID-19.

German manufacturing output (a huge part of their economy) is down 10% over the last 2 years, and as a result, they have lost thousands of jobs. This is not entirely their fault. The Ukraine-Russia war, sanctions by the United States on Russia, a US focus on local manufacturers following the election, and a Chinese economic slowdown has put an economic squeeze on German production.

Germany, has not handled this well - fingers have been pointed at the government for mismanaging the various crises. There has been little focus on the Eurozone debt crisis, they have created a CO2 energy crisis, and the car manufacturers have made poor decisions amidst all the struggles.

Will the German economy continue to tumble? Will they be able to make the corrections needed to continue fueling the European economy?

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/why-germanys-confidence-is-shattered-and-its-economy-is-kaput-d1d95890

Artificial Intelligence Within Europe and its Economical Impact

As artificial intelligence continues to advance, Europe has enacted stringent laws and restrictions to forbid participation in the AI race. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson recognized the issue in a recent press release, and refers to Europe as a potential “museum” if things continue. The French government also recognized the concern, as President Emannuel Macron announced a 109 billion euro investment within AI development, including support from UAE, China, and American investment funds. 

United States Vice President JD Vance recently spoke about the topic, claiming that European officials need to embrace AI’s growth and potential, rather than focusing on regulations. Vance would also claim the United States to be the leader in technology with hopes of more European partnership in the future. The effect this has on the European economy is a bigger worry because it has been stated that the AI laws have caused businesses to migrate.

I find this topic very interesting, as artificial intelligence has flooded the news within the past few years. We see the large companies such as OpenAI and Deepseek invest billions into advancements, but we never hear any news from European companies. It appears as if the regulations in place currently will negatively affect the GDP of many European countries. Will lawmakers come to an understanding that AI is inevitable, and that working with it is much better than working against it, or will they double down on their current stance? I think this is all valuable information to consider. 

Link : https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/20/europe-risks-becoming-museum-without-innovating-in-ai-swedish-pm.html

Top Social Security Official Steps Down Over Disagreement with DOGE

Michelle King, the top official at the Social Security Administration, has stepped down after refusing to grant Musk's Department of Government Efficiency access to highly sensitive records. There may be concern about implications of allowing DOGE to access sensitive information such as bank information, Social Security numbers, and even medical records. Trump cracking down on fraud is evident and the rationale behind it is understandable, but the Social Security Administrations inspector general found that only 0.84% of payments between 2015 and 2022 were improper.

It will be interesting to see if these tensions will be quickly resolved or if this could bring about an even larger debate over privacy rights and governmental oversight. I believe that the administration will face increased scrutiny as this issue continues to unfold. As for us, the public, it will also be important to remain vigilant and aware about any changes to how personal information is handled by the government and its agencies. 

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/top-social-security-official-steps-down-after-disagreement-with-doge-over-sensitive-data.html

U.S. Consumers Stockpile Goods in Response to Trump’s Tariffs

 A recent CreditCards.com report highlights that one in five Americans is stockpiling essential goods in response to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. These tariffs, targeting imports from China, Europe, and Mexico, are intended to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and promote domestic manufacturing. However, the resulting fear of rising prices has led to increased bulk buying at retailers like Walmart and Costco, particularly for non-perishable foods, medical supplies, and household items.

The psychological impact of tariffs is also noteworthy. Many Americans recall the shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this past experience has amplified stockpiling behavior. Experts believe this could create a self-fulfilling cycle, where the fear of rising costs triggers increased demand, leading to temporary shortages and actual price hikes. Retailers have also responded by limiting bulk purchases on high-demand products, similar to the rationing seen in 2020.

Economists and businesses warn that these tariffs could worsen inflation by raising consumer prices. Industries like automobiles, technology, and pharmaceuticals are already facing higher costs for imported components, which may soon be passed on to consumers. The Federal Reserve has raised concerns that tariff-induced inflation could delay anticipated interest rate cuts in 2025.

Policymakers face the challenge of balancing protectionist trade policies with economic stability. If stockpiling and rising costs continue, it could strain supply chains, weaken consumer confidence, and further fuel inflation, all of which would have long-term economic consequences.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumers-rush-buy-trump-tariffs-fuel-stockpiling-report-finds-2025-02-18/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Bleak January as corporate insolvencies at highest for five years

    In January 2025, corporate insolvencies in England and Wales reached a five-year high, with 1,971 companies entering insolvency—a year-on-year increase of 11%. This surge is attributed to prolonged economic challenges and anticipated rises in labor costs, including increases in employers' national insurance contributions and the national minimum wage. Experts warn that sectors employing large numbers of minimum wage workers, such as retail, leisure, and hospitality, are particularly vulnerable. Despite the Bank of England's efforts to stimulate growth by cutting the base rate, business confidence remains low, leading to uncertainty in investment and expansion plans. The government has announced a 6.7% increase in the national living wage, from £11.44 to £12.21 per hour, effective in April, further intensifying cost pressures on businesses.

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/bleak-january-as-corporate-insolvencies-at-highest-for-five-years-wrz2xhhb2

Miner Glencore considers ditching London Stock Exchange listing

    Glencore, one of the world's largest mining and commodity trading companies, is considering moving its primary stock market listing from the London Stock Exchange to the New York Stock Exchange. This strategic move is driven by the desire to access a broader investor base, improve valuation, and enhance liquidity. The potential shift comes as Glencore faces declining profits due to lower commodity prices, impacting its financial performance. If implemented, this relocation would be a significant blow to London's financial market, which has been struggling with high-profile departures recently.

    This decision is also influenced by the fact that U.S. markets typically offer higher valuations for commodity firms compared to European exchanges. Additionally, Glencore's considerations follow similar moves by other multinational corporations seeking better market conditions and investor engagement in the U.S.

    The company's review is still in its early stages, and no final decision has been made. However, if Glencore proceeds with this plan, it would be the latest in a series of significant exits from the London Stock Exchange, highlighting ongoing challenges for the UK financial market post-Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/19/glencore-ditch-london-stock-exchange-new-york

 

European stocks are outperforming their U.S. counterparts — but for how long?

European stocks have kicked off the year with surprising vigor, significantly outpacing their U.S. counterparts in both January and February. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 6.3% in January, compared to the S&P 500’s 2.7%, and has continued this momentum into February, posting a 3.3% gain versus the S&P 500’s 1.25% as of February 18. Analysts attribute Europe’s strength to several factors: lingering hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (which would lower risk premiums and stabilize energy prices), fiscal expansion in Germany, and the passage of France’s contentious 2025 budget—all of which give investors confidence in Europe’s economic prospects. Meanwhile, the U.S. market grapples with tariff-driven inflation concerns and a Federal Reserve that appears to be on hold, in contrast to European central banks that are leaning toward rate cuts. Earnings revisions in Europe have also been notably positive, a sign that has historically led to outperformance in the months ahead. However, some strategists warn that this advantage may prove short-lived; while Europe’s recent run has been impressive, annual results over the last decade, barring 2022, have typically ended with U.S. markets on top. With U.S. corporate earnings continuing to show robust surprises and Europe’s economic data far from universally strong, investors remain cautious about whether the current outperformance can be maintained throughout the year. 

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/europe-stocks-are-outperforming-the-us-this-year.html

What is Going on with Columbus's Housing Market?

    Looking into 2025, there are definitely some notable trends and economic factors that will influence central Ohio’s housing market. Compared to last year, Columbus saw steady demand, moderate price growth, and a dynamic mix of housing options making it “one of the best places to invest in real estate in the US.” Because of its affordability, job growth, and strategic location, Columbus’s market has remained very strong despite rising inflation. Increase in demand has caused a 3.3% rise in housing prices in one year from 2023 to 2024. While the median sale price of a home is around $315,000, prices differ based on different factors like proximity to downtown, access to amenities, and local demand. Because of the higher demand and tight housing inventory, listings are on the lower side compared to other years causing heavy market competition. Often buyers will encounter multiple-offer scenarios causing sales in high-demand neighborhoods to skyrocket. Contractors are trying to keep up with the growing demand, but rising material costs, labor shortages, and zoning restrictions have put limits on the pace of new development. Recently Columbus has experienced a slowdown in the average number of days a listing is on the market (26 days from 22 days) which suggests that 2025 may see a steadier demand for buyers and an increase in housing supply. Although this is promising, we are only a month and a half into the new year and a lot can change from now until December 2025. I think it will be interesting to see how the new industrialization that we are expecting to see in the next couple of years will impact the supply and demand of housing in the future. If you want to look at more in-depth analysis and neighborhood specific data, I suggest looking at the article linked below.

Columbus Housing Market Analysis & Forecast 

 

Why Unemployment is Rising in DC

 With President Trump moving to fire thousands of government workers, DC has seen a large increase in unemployment claims. All this under the claim that these actions will increase government efficiency. On this subject Tom Nichols, a writer for The Atlantic, said "One of the greatest tricks that Donald Trump and Elon Musk ever pulled is to convince millions of people that DOGE, the self-styled Department of Government Efficiency, is about government efficiency." Trump claims that it is about government efficiency and reducing government involvement but why Trump is actually doing this is up to speculation. 

Wholesale Inflation Rose in January More Than Expected

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2025-02-13/wholesale-inflation-rose-in-january-more-than-expected

The recent report on wholesale inflation in January showed a higher than expected rise of 0.4% It's somewhat concerning since it signals that inflation is still not under control. This isn't just about gas and grocery prices anymore but it's a sign that prices are climbing across the board, which could mean more strain on consumers in the months ahead. From my perspective, the Fed is in a tough spot. The aim to get inflation back down to that 2% target looks increasingly challenging. They've been raising interest rates in hopes of cooling the economy, but these figures show that inflation is stubborn and persistent. It's also easy to get frustrated by the impact on everyday people especially those like me in urban areas like New York, where inflation feels more intense. The cost of living is already high, and further price increases only widen the gap. With wages not keeping pace, this rising inflation could feel like a persistent weight on people's finances, making it even harder to achieve real financial security. As we look ahead, the next few months will be crucial to see how these trends unfold and whether the Fed's policies will have the desired effect or if we'll be stuck in this cycle of inflation for longer than we want.