PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (Healthcare) (BLOG 5)

The final presidential debate was held between Donald Trump, representing the Republican party, and Joe Biden, representing the Democratic party. The discussion was much calmer and more relaxed this time. Both the President and the Vice President did not argue as they did in the previous debate. This debate was made by Kristen Welker, a journalist who works for NBC News.   

Affordable Health Care is very important because of COVID – 19 and with the economy not doing, people losing their jobs they need to have some sort of way to afford Healthcare. The first question was asked to President Trump about how he would do better health care acts and his first response. Not to talk about the plan but talk about how the elimination process is going for the Obama Care. He pointed out how there were problems in health care since it was run, so people would have to pay a lot of money. He pointed out that the Removal of Obama Healthcare is in process at the Supreme court. He then followed on to talk about how he would come up with a ‘brand new beautiful health care’. 

On the other hand, Biden care was a fully ready plan to launch and be provided to the public which is going to be run by the government. He said that this would have a public option, so people who have their private insurance would not have to change to this health care. There was an analysis done by a nonpartisan who said that this plan that Biden is proposing would reduce the prices on the ACA exchanges and lower the Employer-Based Premiums. Trump had promised that he would make a better plan than the ACA which was going to protect people who had preexisting conditions, but when this plan was studied by the experts, they said that is going to be pretty expensive compared to the previous Healthcare. Trump also started talking about Bernie Sanders and the idea that he had failed and Biden’s response to him was that Trump didn’t know who he was standing against him because he was mentioning people he beat. Biden said that ‘I beat all those other people because I disagreed with them.’ 

What do you guys think about the answers from both parties? Do you think they justified their answer?

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-says-obamacare-must-die-biden-says-he-ll-make-n1244454. 

White-collar job cuts are increasing.

The pandemic severely affected low-income jobs in mainstream industries such as hotels, restaurants, and retail however now we are noticing a similar trend spreading in high-income jobs. When corporate level layoffs increase it’s a pure indicator of the economic impact of a recession and tells us that there is a traditional recession happening beneath the surface of this public health crisis. The white-collar job cuts are increasing as we move further in this pandemic. Big insurance company Allstate announced that it would layoff about 3800 workers. ExxonMobil plans to layoff 1900 workers, mainly at the headquarters in Houston. Raytheon a major defense contractor plans to layoff 5000 workers, mostly corporate employees, and contract engineers. Similarly, people working with state and local governments are also at risk because of the reduced budgets. 

Economists argue that this is a secondary impact of the pandemic which will slow down the recovery process as layoffs ripple across different industries. Generally, in recessions, higher-wage workers are better off since they have stable jobs and savings. However, increasing layoffs in the white-collar sector during a recession can be very impactful because they spend the most. Are we moving towards a white-collar recession?

Money-Printing Slowdown Leaves Governments to Take Up Stimulus Slack

 As many of the world's largest central banks have reduced the frequency at which they are printing monies, government entities are taking the decision to increase their spending. Governments are working to prevent and minimize the havoc that would stem from the possibility of another shutdown. As European countries begin entering their second wave of shutdowns, and the United States prepares for its heavily anticipated presidential election, even small changes to economic policy is leaving economists, politicians and the alike in states of angst considering current social and political climates; hence the current trend of wanting to balance the money-printing slowdown with other fiscal stimuli. The Bank of China is said to have determined that they have sufficiently provided fiscal assistance and shows little signs of a willingness to do more. The European Central Bank, People's Bank of China and the Bank of England are said to be following a similar trend. This also includes the US Federal Reserve.

Europe's biggest asset manager is cited as saying that this slowdown will be a cause for concern for months to come and that it "may cause a sort of taper tantrum in markets and a possible re-pricing of inflation expectations." As a precaution, IMF experts are urging governments to “ensure fiscal support is not withdrawn too rapidly.”

For Retailers, a Halloween Shock: It’s Actually Happening

Sales of Halloween costumes and decorations have been stronger than what was expected with the pandemic. People are seeing this day as the last day for the kids to have fun outdoors before winter hits. “While Mr. Berman, like many other business owners, has welcomed the volume of Halloween sales given the uncertainty of the moment, he noted that before the pandemic, 2020 was poised to be a bonanza for the holiday and party industry.” Some business owners are saying people are dressing up and decorating the house much more leading to more sales than ever before in the history of their stores. “The National Retail Federation, an industry group, expected Halloween consumer spending to hit about $8 billion this year, a decline from $8.8 billion last year, as a result of fewer Halloween parties and haunted house visits and less trick-or-treating. But enthusiasm around costumes and decorations has persisted.” Halloween sales are higher than anyone could have ever expected, but It is nice to see strong sales considering this crazy year. 

Do you think that Halloween fun will get too chaotic and we will see a rapid increase in cases to come? Do you think a significant increase in cases will lead to a shutdown like in France? Increased sales will help our economy now, but do you see it coming back on us with a shutdown?

Maheshwari, Sapna, and Gillian Friedman. “Get Your Hand Sanitizer Costume. Halloween Is Still Happening.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 29 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/business/halloween-costumes-decorations-sales.html.

Jobless claim lower than expected

 The number of first-unemployment-benefit filers fell to the lowest level in the pandemic as it declined for a second straight week. The jobless claims came in at 751,000 which was down 40,000 from the last week. The initial speculated jobless claims for the week was presumed to be 778,000. This comes on the brink of  a ride in COVID infections as the assumed blowback would an increased in the jobless claims. To further on this trend the continuing jobless claims dropped 709,000 to 7.75 million. All of this data comes as law makers continue to delay the next round of stimulus for the economy. Maybe the election will have an impact on what is going to happen? 

 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/weekly-jobless-claims.html

Covid-19 Explodes the Myth That Women ‘Opt’ Out

 In August and September, more than a million people dropped out of the workforce. Eighty percent of them were women. Women have been losing jobs at a rate far higher than that of men throughout this recession, figures that can’t be entirely explained by industry effects. And it might get worse. One in 4 employed women (1 in 3 mothers) are considering quitting or dialing back at work, according to McKinsey — the first time in six years of research that they’ve found any difference in men’s and women’s interest in quitting.

The “Opt out myth” is the assumption that one reason, maybe even the main reason, you don’t see more women leading organizations or governments is that so many women “choose” to stay home. In reality, the number of women who give up their careers is small, and the choice is almost never truly a free one.

However, women do not “opt out” of the workforce, but now they are being forced to because of Covid-19. They are struggling to find caregivers while daycares, schools and home caregivers are not available during this time. So, are women still considered the person who should not work and stay home to take care of the house and kids? And will this get worse from now on with Covid-19?

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-10-20/covid-19-explodes-the-myth-that-women-opt-out-of-the-workforce

The Future of Pennsylvania's Energy Sector

    During the campaign's of both President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden, the energy industry, specifically fracking in states such as Pennsylvania have been a major area of contention. Donald Trump has claimed that Joe Biden will destroy the energy industry, banning fracking in Pennsylvania and pushing towards only renewable energy. The issue here is that in Western Pennsylvania, fracking makes up a large portion of the job market. Many in the industry compared it to the steel industry in the 19th and 20th centuries, everyone knew someone who worked in it. 

    Biden's plan is one in which new fracking will be limited, and a push for increased jobs in wind and solar energy. Those who agree with his principles argue that thousands of similar paying jobs to that of the fracking industry will open up. These will range from jobs requiring a high school diploma, to some upper level jobs requiring masters or bachelors degrees. Jim Spencer, a businessman who manages wind and solar farms in the area, predicts that they future will hold fracking alongside an increase in renewables. He recognizes the large scale employment that comes with building and managing the renewable farms. On the other hand though he thinks that for when the sun is not shining or the wind not blowing, natural gas can keep things running. Spencer is more so of the mindset that coal will be phased out, as both other options are cheaper.

    Trump and many of his Republican supporters are fearful of Biden's plan with the fracking industry. They are unsure whether to trust him and the Democrats, as they believe their policies will greatly reduce the scale of fracking. That means less jobs for them, lower wages, and a reason for mass exodus from the region. To them, the fracking industry has provided opportunity in a rural and otherwise unprosperous place. In the end it seems many Pennsylvanians are hedging their bets that there will be some sort of combination of renewables and fracking, regardless of the candidate.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-battleground-pennsylvania-fracking-and-renewables-compete-to-be-the-future-of-energy-11603979272

GDP Increases during Q3

 The US saw a increase in Gross Domestic Product of 33.1% during the third quarter. This comes after GDP decreased by 31.4% during quarter two. The gains are attributed to increased consumer spending, which increased by 1.4%, strong gains with business, residential investment increased, and increased exports. The gains in these areas come as states were able to ease up on the lockdown guidelines, allowing citizens return back to some normality. 

As strong as the GDP report was, there are still concerning figures that will likely inhibit economic performance in the next quarter. Since March there have been $22 million jobs lost, of which only half have been recovered. This leaves unemployment at 7.9%, a rate more than double its pre-pandemic level. Without the passage of another stimulus package, and a forecasted insurgence of COVID cases during the winter, it is unlikely to have the continued success that was seen in quarter 3. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html

U.S. consumer spending beats expectations in September

 According to a report from CNBC consumer spending increased by 1.4% in the month of September. Previously, in the month of August we saw an increase of consumer spending of 1%. These numbers were promising since consumer spending accounts for two thirds of economic activity. However, as COVID cases are beginning to surge again there is a high possibility of consumer spending decreasing in the fourth quarter. Personal income increase by 0.9% which exceeded the 0.4% expected increase. Due to everything going on I think consumer confidence will fall and as a result consumer spending will also fall in the following quarter.

U.S. Economy days before an election

On Tuesday, November 3rd either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be elected for president of the United States. And the current state of the economy has been a contentious point for both candidates. Trump has been quoted as saying "we are rounding the corner" with this virus while Biden argues that the economy is struggling greatly. 

The truth; however, may be somewhere in the middle. Trump is correct when he boasts our 3rd quarter economic growth of over 33% which is a phenomenal figure in a vacuum. Though this can be heavily offset by the 31% decline we saw in the 2nd quarter.

Additionally, our economy has contracted 3.5% as a whole when compared to 2019. I believe it is unfair to blame Donald Trump entirely for the current state of the economy. There was so much uncertainty and panic during the first lockdown which could have affected these percentages. Still the entire U.S. government--not solely Trump--should share the blame. Our COVID response has been relatively weak when compared to other countries, and lawmakers from each side have used this as a political tool to siphon votes. It would be interesting to see how seriously politicians may have taken this virus if we were not in an election year.

 Many argue that we should not be "reopening" business at the moment and should take any means to control the transmission of coronavirus. It has become apparent that a shutdown is largely unpopular with voters, effectively ruling that out as an option. If our current economy is doing as poorly as it was in the 2nd quarter; this would almost guarantee a defeat for Trump.

Ultimately, the outcome of the election will be great news to some and horrible news to others. Our biggest concern should be working together to help the citizens. But I am afraid that the politicians from the losing party will do anything to ensure the failure of the president elect. Regardless if it is Trump or Biden.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-where-the-economy-stands-as-the-us-chooses-between-trump-and-biden-2020-10-31

Fed lowers minimum loan level for small business lending program

 In efforts to continue to help small and medium businesses get through the pandemic,  the Federal Reserve is reducing the minimum loan size down to $100,000 from $250,000. Along with this they have also decided to ease restrictions on companies that are participating in the Paycheck Protection Program. These decisions were in response to the growing concerns of an economic slow down in the winter due to both COVID and the current stalemate on future stimulus checks. 

As cases continue to grow around the world there has also been many talks of future possible shutdown in a number of countries. I think that by making these loans more accessible to these small business it could possibly help them survive another shutdown.