Saturday, August 30, 2025

Trump tariffs that are voided by; and ones that are safe from Friday’s appeals court ruling

 A federal appeals court just ruled that most of President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” are illegal because he went beyond his legal power as president. These tariffs were huge. They covered almost 70% of U.S. imports and charged other countries, like Mexico, Canada, China, India, and Brazil, up to 50% on goods. The court said only Congress can create taxes like tariffs, not the president. For now, the tariffs will stay in place until mid-October while Trump appeals to the Supreme Court. If the Court agrees with the ruling, Trump can still put tariffs in place but only in smaller amounts and for shorter time periods using a different law.

Some of Trump’s tariffs are still safe. His taxes on steel and aluminum (called Section 232 tariffs) are not affected by the ruling and were recently expanded to cover more products. These tariffs are likely to stay even if the Supreme Court removes the bigger ones. Other tariffs that started during Trump’s first term on China also remain, along with a new rule that removes the $800 “free pass” for small imports, meaning even cheap goods from overseas now face extra costs. This all means Trump might shift to using more focused, industry-specific tariffs instead of taxing almost all imports.

U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during the signing of executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 25, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
This is a picture of President Donald Trump during the signing of executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 25, 2025

 This case shows how economic policy is shaped by the balance of power between the president, Congress, and the courts  and how trade policy can have big effects on global markets and domestic businesses.

Source : https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/30/trump-trade-tariffs-appeals.html 

Tame US Job Growth Expected in Approach to Fed Meeting

 Vince Golle and Craig Stirling, Journalists at Bloomberg, Discuss US Job growth expectations, along with payroll expectations, and international trade effects in this article. Bloomberg analysts are expecting hiring to remain limited as Bloomberg is projecting 75,000 jobs added in the month of August, while unemployment to tick up to an almost four year high. If this ends up being the case this would mark the slowest payroll growth since the throes of the COVID pandemic in 2020. Since August of 2022, the US unemployment rate has consistently risen from 3.6% in August of 2022 to 4.3% currently, and Bloomberg analysts are expecting unemployment to continue to tick higher in August. 

Trade tensions internationally were a theme of this article. Golle and Stirling demonstrated Trumps trade policy affects on other countries/regions. Canada saw its first GDP contraction in nearly two years this past fiscal quarter, showing the negative effects that Tariffs have on Canadas largest trading partner. 

Economists predict steady growth in Australia, and muted growth in South Korea, both countries will report many various fiscal reports in the coming week. Japans trade exports have reached an all time low in the past 15 months with exports down to -2.6% for the month of June, a stark contrast to the 12% surge in February.

across the EMEA conditions are relatively stable. No important monetary policy changes are expected at the upcoming ECB meeting in September. Inflation remains steady, and near the ECB's target of 2%. A notable statistic will be the German Factory order draws which may add some key insight to US tariff effects on German and European manufacturing. 

Article Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-30/tame-us-job-growth-expected-in-approach-to-fed-meeting?srnd=phx-economics-v2 

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

US Tourism Industry in Tour-moil

 The Economist raises the issue that due to all the bad publicity in regards to the Trump administration, that foreigners are avoiding trips to the USA -- therefore causing the tourism industry to suffer. The world has been seeing the Administration harming various apartments, putting alliances into question, increased deportation, and sending the national guard into cities. Therefore causing foreigners not wanting to visit the USA. 

"With most of the summer season now visible, the trend is harder to miss. Using data from America’s International Trade Administration, a government agency, The Economist finds that foreign arrivals at American airports are down by 3.8% compared with 2024, or 1.3m fewer people. The slump was steepest between May and July, when arrivals fell by 5.5% year on year. That bucked the global trend as tourism finally recovered to pre-pandemic levels."



This is in sharp contrast to Americans departing for travel on a year to year basis, which is up nearly 3%. " In 2024 some 22% more Americans flew abroad than foreigners came in; this year so far the gap has widened to 27%."

Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/08/26/have-foreign-tourists-really-avoided-america-this-year 

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Cracks in the Entry-Level Job Market for Gen Z Graduates

 A recent analysis shows that in July 2025, 13.4% of unemployed Americans were new labor force entrants, the highest share since 1988, highlighting the strain on the job market for newcomers. Despite the overall U.S. Employment rate holding at around 4.2%, this spike among job-seekers entering the workforce signals a deepening challenge for those without prior experience.

This sharp entry-level squeeze suggests that the traditional college premium —the idea that earning a degree nearly guarantees an employment advantage —is under growing pressure in today's economic climate. As hiring slows and employers become more cautious, even well-educated newcomers find their path into the labor market blocked by low turnover and a freeze on entry-level roles.

Article: Gen Z Grads Are Entering The Toughest Job Market In Decades by Allwork.Space News Team

Link: https://allwork.space/2025/08/gen-z-grads-are-entering-the-toughest-job-market-in-decades/

Monday, August 25, 2025

July Jobs Report Reveals Cracks in the College Premium

    The July 2025 jobs report shows an abrupt slowdown in the United States labor market. The payroll increased at only an average of 35,000 new positions over the past three months, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The figures may appear insignificant, but they represent an actual shift from the improved labor market of 2019 and the rebound from the pandemic.

    Younger graduates are hit the worst, with 23–27-year-old unemployment rising from 3.25% in 2019 to 4.59% in 2025—a 1.34 percentage point rise, more than double that of other groups. This suggests that the traditional college degree labor market premium is in decline. White-collar employment is also hit, particularly in fields like computer science and media, where unemployment has climbed steeply. The changing labor market is raising questions about stability, education, and employment.

Ozkan, S., & Sullivan, N. (2025, August 25). Recent college grads bear brunt of labor market shifts. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/recent-college-grads-bear-brunt-labor-market-shifts