The government shutdown essentially disrupted the normal flow of U.S. economic data, leaving Wall Street, policymakers, and investors squinting through what some economists called "data fog." With federal agencies reopening, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is finally rolling out delayed reports. They are beginning with the September nonfarm payroll release, and even with the backlog starting to clear, there is still a lot of uncertainty. Certain reports, such as the October CPI, cannot be recreated since those rely on in-person data collection, and that did not occur during the shutdown. Without these reports, it has led to the Federal Reserve and markets have leaned on secondary indicators, adding friction to an already tense policy environment.
On top of a logical mess, there's political heat building. Some democratic lawmakers are pressing the administration, arguing that past shutdowns didn't prevent the release of economic data. They are suggesting that the delays in reports could be intentional. Agencies like the BLS and BEA are asking for patience and saying they need time to rebuild schedules and verify the quality of what they are going to publish. However, in the meantime, economists are hoping the FED gets enough core reports before the December meeting. This is where the potential rate cut would occur, and until then, businesses, consumers, and policymakers are all stuck waiting for a clearer economic picture.
1 comment:
i did my blog over the same thing and found it interesting how this government shutdown is going to cause such a lastly affect. Will be interesting to see if the "initial" delay is something they are trying to do to cover some things up.
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