VanEck Bitcoin ETF Proposal

Over the past year, several companies, including VanEck, have proposed a Bitcoin ETF to the SEC. VanEck created the first ever international equity fund in 1955 and is now pushing to publish the first Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin was created in 2009 after the financial crisis and is a type of digital currency in which a record of transactions is maintained and new units of currency are generated by the computational solution of mathematical problems, and which operates independently of a central bank. 

Bitcoin is the best performing asset class in the last 10 years, and many well-established institutions are entering this market space behind the scenes. They are waiting for the ETF approval, proper regulation from the SEC and CFTC and proper custodianship, however, when this pans out, will institutional and retail investors flee to this market? 

Let's face it, the US economy is due for a correction within the next two years or so. When this recession occurs, will we see people place their money elsewhere? Traditionally, when the stock market has a correction, people tend to deploy their capital into other asset classes, such as gold or real estate. However, Bitcoin has little to no correlation to the traditional equities market, 0.1 to be exact. 

Throughout 2018, Bitcoin and the crypto market has been in a bear market. In the past, Bitcoin has had four, ~80% pullbacks, from reaching all-time highs, and still continues to get back to the all-time high level. People often say Bitcoin is dead, however, in my opinion, it is not. It is only starting to rally. It has been around for 10 years, and it has reached the $20,000 per Bitcoin level, just with retail money. Imagine when institutional money, endowment fund money, sovereign wealth funds, and pensions funds deploy capital into the market. My hypothesis is that Bitcoin will reach $140,000 per Bitcoin by 2023, and if you'd like to see the model that I built to back my hypothesis, I'd be happy to share. 


Please let me know your thoughts and opinions on the Bitcoin ETF approval, and how this may impact the US and global economy.





https://www.coindesk.com/cboe-re-files-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-proposal

Warren stakes out 2020 ground with wealth-tax proposal

     Senator Elizabeth Warren is proposing that an establishment of a “2% tax on net worth between $50 million and $1 billion, and a 3% tax above $1 billion” the revenue from which she would direct to help with wealth inequality. She explains that this tax could help increase revenue, estimated at $2.75trillion, which in turn could help, as she would direct it, give more equal opportunity for everyone else in America. She asserts that this extra money could help decrease the costs of healthcare and help with student loans.

    

     This new wealth tax would help address the fact that many people with high net worth are able to avoid paying high amounts of tax by using loopholes. Given US income inequality, not everyone is given the same opportunities. Those who don’t have high incomes or high net worth might not be able to afford to get a college education leading to more uneducated people affecting productivity in our economy. Middle-income families are already taxed on their wealth because it comes out as property taxes they have to pay for their homes, where the rich have a smaller percent of financial assets in real estate subject to property taxes. Senator Warren’s new proposed wealth tax would make sure that both the high- and middle-income families would be treated more equally. However, they stated that other countries have tried to create a tax that will help with wealth inequality but found that it was hard to administer so the countries did not get the expected revenue.

    

     This wealth tax could be used to redistribute more money from the rich to the poor. More financial resources provided to the poor could help with more equal opportunities as well as a more educated workers and better community connections leading to more economic growth. However, this wealth tax is new, and it will be interesting to see if it works and if others will agree and support this wealth tax.  

Link: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/427075-warren-courts-progressives-with-wealth-tax-proposal

Plain-Spoken Fed Chairman Sometimes Leaves Markets Confused

All through last year The Fed and Jerome Powell made it very clear that they would be raising rates.
The message was consistently that the Fed expect to continue to raise rates through 2019. The plan is not as clear as it once was due to the high volatility that has been seen in financial markets over the past several months. Powell has stated previously that the Fed is more concerned with economic data the how the financial markets are doing. However, the financial markets care a lot about what he has to say.

The last time the Fed raised the stock market dropped 8% because markets were surprised that the Fed raised rates. This is just one recent example in how disconnected markets and the Fed have been at times. During, the meeting after Powell change his tone saying that the fed will watch markets and slow rates raises down due to fear of slower growth.

Powell has also change the Feds policy and will now talk after every Fed meeting. I think Powell has made it clear that he wants to address the issue of creating confusion. It seems the his goal is to ensure markets and the Fed are on the same page.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/plain-spoken-fed-chairman-sometimes-leaves-markets-confused-11548757801

Government Shutdown is Over, So Where is the Economic Data?

According to New York Times, the government shutdown is officially over. Unfortunately, a lot of the economic data will have to wait. This comes at a very poor time as many analysts and policy makers were just starting to grow concerned about the economic expansion finally ending after a decade. With so much uncertainty surrounding the economy, the Fed are going to be paying very close attention these next couple weeks to the data that is coming out in order to make the best decisions regarding the interest rates and other related matters.

As a result of the government shutdown, the economy lost close to $11 billion, most of which should be should be recovered as more federal workers return to their jobs. Although some data still has yet to be released following the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics were still able to collect and release inflation rates, unemployment and hiring estimates like usual. Other pieces of data that require a number of different indicators, such as GDP, cannot be released until the rest of the data has been found. Analysts still do not know how the government plans to get back on schedule regarding the releasing of quarterly data, but the answer will probably vary. Luckily, many economists have stated that the government shutdown was lifted before more serious damage could have been done.

Overall, this seems to be a very uneasy time for the Fed and the government. With the economy seeming to be on its way to a downturn, this data is very important to figure out how to deal with the interest rates, and other ways the Fed could help prevent the upcoming recession, which is looking to be inevitable. It will be interesting to see what happens within the economy the next few weeks to see if more data is released regarding both the economy and the Fed.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/business/economy/economy-government-shutdown.html

German Ifo Business Confidence Lowest In Nearly 3 Years Amid Rising Worries

Link: http://www.rttnews.com/story.aspx?Id=2972715

While many rumors spread about a possible upcoming recession in the US, Germany is experiencing warning signs of its own. In the above article, the author discusses how certain economic indicators have dropped more quickly than anticipated in Germany. Their Business Climate Index fell to its lowest level (99.1) since 2016 and many are stating that this is the first time business expectations have turned pessimistic since 2012. This is also the first time that the German economy has shrunk since 2015 and is falling at a rapid rate.

There are many factors putting pressure on the German economy; one of the largest being Brexit. The result of Brexit will most likely determine how long Germany stays in this downturn. As of right now, The Economy Ministry is expecting the German economy to pick up fairly quickly again and grow in 2019 as the construction industry sees large growth and tax cuts are put in place to increase consumer spending.

With much of the news focused on the US at the moment, it is interesting to see what is going on in other countries and how other economies are holding up. The German economy is very important for the EU and it is concerning that they might be going into a recession. I think it will be very interesting to see the effects of Brexit as well as a possible US recession on other economies.

McDonald's and KFC warn of shortages and price hikes if there's no Brexit deal

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/28/business/brexit-impact-food-prices/index.html


In consequences of Brexit, the companies in the food industry are anticipating significant problems that would negatively affect their supply chains.
The terms of Brexit will be valid after 60 days, and the British government still has not devised plans to regulate their economy. Two sides are still arguing on whether Britain should do a hard or soft Brexit, and if there is no specific agreement on what should be done until the terms take effect.
The biggest concern of these companies are basically the shortage of employees and the import costs that are estimated to rise. This would affect not just the UK farmers but everybody, because we need food to survive. The overall cost will increase and the consumers would have to pay more for food. Companies are saying they are stockpiling the supplies as much as they could, but there is a limit to how much one could accumulate them for so long. The storage cost will also be a painful loss to the companies.
Considering that quite a lot of the British people did not even know what EU was, and what kind of benefits England was gaining from being in the union, Brexit may conjure many more problems. Partiality towards immigrants is of course, a valid reason to vote yes for Brexit. There are more reasons why, but it seems that the whole event was rushed and irrationally done. If the British government cannot come up with an amending policy, the citizens would be the ones that may be paying the price for their irresponsible decisions.
There were definitely downsides of being in the EU. The gains that Britain earned by being a member of the EU were significant as well. Hence their plan must be made before due date. Otherwise people would have to lose more than they thought.

Slow Growth Plagues the World Economy

In a recent New York Times article, Neil Irwin examines the state of the world economy and the rut it has found its way into. Throughout 2018, it appeared as if the global economy was finally recovered from the financial crisis that occurred in 2008 and making positive gains. However, indicators from around the world have made it clear that the issues that have started to plague the economy are not going anywhere anytime soon. It is becoming apparent that low growth and low inflation are becoming the new economic norm around the world. The contributing factors to this are things such as an aging workforce, a large international savings glut, and shortage of demand. Irwin goes on to explain how in the future, low growth means the economy can easier slip into a recession, and low-interest rates will make it harder for the financial sector to pull the economy out of it.

In fact, things have slowed down so much that following the Federal Reserves most recent rise in interest rates, former Chair Janet Yellen said its very possible that the end of the cycle could be near, and that could be the last raise in interest rates we see before we shift towards another recession. The article goes on to explain that the current world economy could not handle a negative shock, as there is not enough growth providing a cushion to absorb one. Irwin also notes that the United States is in a particularly vulnerable spot, given the trade wars and the government shutdown that has recently occurred.

Moving forward, I am concerned about an oncoming downturn in the economy given its stagnant pattern. I am interested to see how the United States responds to the current state of the economy and how other large economies such as China make decisions moving forward as the decade-long pattern of low growth is here to stay.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/27/upshot/world-economy-low-growth-low-interest-deflation.html

Global shipping rates slump

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-economy/global-shipping-rates-slump-in-latest-sign-of-economic-slowdown-idUSKCN1PJ0BQ


Many are worried where the global economy is heading with the current slowdown of trade and growth seen throughout world. The Baltic Dry Index, a shipping cost measurement tool for items such as iron ore and coal, has fallen by 47% since mid-2018. Additionally, the Harpex Shipping Index, a container rate tracker, has dropped around 30% since June of 2018.

These numbers may seem frightening, however, how do they compare to measurements for the rest of the economy? If these decreases fall in line with what we believe we should have observed, then perhaps this slump is attributed to the downward fall of a business cycle. After all, the global economy as a whole has had impressive growth over the years, perhaps it is catching up with itself.

That is not to say, however, that recent trade wars are not attributable to this fall. These conflicts certainly play a role in the performance of shipping rates. With that said, if these trade wars were not to have happened, would we still be seeing a similar decline in rates? Perhaps things are inflated slightly due to these conflicts, and once they are resolved, we may notice a sizable change.

"Labor Market Powers On Despite Growth Concerns"

January 24, 2018

Source: The Wall Street Journal

In the article by Sarah Chaney, the topic of record low unemployment is discussed as a positive economic indicator to quell fears of lagging growth and slowdown. One portion of labor market strength mentioned was the record low layoffs that rival 1969 data; seasonally adjusted claims of 199,000 in January of 2019 compared to 197,000 in November of 1969. Chaney notes that both the trade tensions between the US and China as well as the ongoing government shutdown have created a fear of slowing economic growth, mainly due to perceptions of instability in my opinion. I would also note, however, that the volatility of the stock market in November and December and record losses would also shake consumer confidence due to unpredictability, increasing these fears. In contrast, it seems like strong labor data in the US is managing to overshadow these fears as Jesse Rothstein, an economics professor at UC Berkeley, notes that “The fact that the jobless claims [number] has remained steady is an indication that these are still just concerns.” Moreover, low unemployment at at 3.3% (according to the BLS), job creation, and wage growth all support the claim. 

Interestingly enough, the government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic from the commerce department that would reveal more insight. Federal workers affected by the shutdown who are able to claim unemployment benefits are lower than the shutdown in 1996 according to a Barclays analyst. This could be due to the fact that furloughed workers are required to to repay the benefits they receive if they receive their paycheck after the shutdown. To me this is definitely a disincentive to even apply for the benefits and prevents these workers from stable income.

In all, the labor market seems stable amidst slowdown concerns, yet in strong contrast, I am concerned about the furloughed workers being able to make ends meet without a stable form of income. 

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-fell-to-49-year-low-last-week-11548336850?mod=hp_lista_pos4

US Government Shutdown

The US Government shutdown could be the root of many problems if it keeps on. The possibility of the shut down continuing into February and maybe even March would cause growth rates to fall to a place where unemployment would creep up. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was at its lowest point since Trump won the election in 2016.

The key threshold mentioned in the article for GDP growth is 2%, according to Mark Zandi. Although, that is considered a modest estimate as 1st quarters tend to be slow and the shutdown does not help any growth.

After reading this article, it is difficult to ignore the fact that a lack of agreement between both parties could really put the economy in a tough place. Obviously it makes everyone question if all of this disagreement over a border wall is really worth the toll we are going to take on our economy. Before all of this, the economy was already looking like it was slowing down with the rising interest rates. This could really put a damper on the economy going into the 2nd quarter.




https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/shutdown-if-not-resolved-soon-could-be-fodder-for-recession.html

How Texas, Once an Economic Drag, Became the Nation’s Fastest-Growing Economy

Texas over the last has outpaced the U.S. as a whole in percentage of manufacturing jobs added.  The slight bump up in oil prices seem to be pushing its oil industry forward as well.  With number of oil providers in Texas relatively low due to the low oil prices previously, there is now a higher price on oil, which can make it more lucrative as an industry.  I am curious as to see that if a drop in oil prices in the future would again cause this industry to fold.

https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/05/07/how-texas-once-an-economic-drag-became-the-nations-fastest-growing-economy/

US Annual Inflation measures jump as Consumer Spending Rises

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/us-personal-income-march-2018.html

This article talks about inflation and the relationship to consumer spending. The Fed has been trying to get inflation up to its 2% target mark, but there has been some trouble recently. However, it is good that inflation is currently on the rise and that consumer spending is positively correlated with that. As we know, consumer spending is important as it adds to GDP and output.

It is interesting to think about the differences in inflation in a capitalist economy, like the US, and a more socialist economy. In a capitalist economy, consumer spending is very important because people have the ability to earn income, and have the freedom to choose what to do with it. In a socialist economy, people don't really have the ability to earn excess income, and if they do, they tend to have little freedom to do what they want with it. I would expect those socialist countries to have lower inflation, however, we have seen the US have low inflation which makes me wonder why?

Why do you think inflation has been weak in the US recently?

In Brexit, Economic Reality Competes With Nostalgia for Bygone Days

This article shows how economies like the British economy that we see as a market economy, doesn't always let the markets work on their own. The article talks about how some people are not willing to exit the fishing industry and go into others that are more profitable, simply because they don't want to. The article says that "the legacy and the romance of a declining industrial past often eclipse the interests of new and expanding businesses. Time and again, economic facts are no competition for sentiment and history". The reason why fishing in Grimsby is still happening, its simply because it has a lot of political influence and many people don't want it to go away even if the industry is not profitable. This is something similar to what happens in the US when Trump says he is going to bring the jobs back to factories and coal mines. These industries have been declining for decades and the only reason why Trump is saying it is that politically many people will support him. The same thing happens in England because they should move away from fishing into other industries, but people don't want to change and if a governor in Grimsby would support this he would not be popular and people would not like him.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/23/business/grimsby-brexit.html?action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Asian companies see little need for insurance against cyber attack, with less than 20% insured

"Asian companies are behind US peers in insurance coverage against cyber attacks, according to FM Global. Less than 20% of Asian companies have cyber insurance, compared with 66% of US businesses, the insurer says."

I found this article very interesting as the title is what initially caught my eye. Apparently finding solutions for cyber attacks is still in a growth phase in Asia. With this being said; profitability of the cyber security industry in Asian countries must still be in a growth phase. I see high return potential in the near future with investment in cyber security in the Asian markets. I am also curious as to why this lag has occurred in the first place; are cyber attacks not as common or are they not as vicious across the world in Asia? 

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2142819/asian-companies-see-little-need-insurance-against-cyber-attack

Spain’s exporters drive robust economic recovery

This article describes the current state of the economy in Spain, which was previously struggling. Currently, the economy seems to be doing well as it has grown at above 3 per cent for the past three years, which is well above the eurozone average. As a consequence, rating agencies have upgraded Spain’s sovereign debt ratings, allowing for cheaper borrowing. Like most economies, they are still experiencing some challenges such as high unemployment, but there seems to be positive development in the Spanish economy overall. They are attributing this positive growth to an export driven economy and lower wages. The Spanish Secretary of State for budgets boasts that their economy is "becoming more German".

https://www.ft.com/content/19df28e6-43a7-11e8-93cf-67ac3a6482fd

Possible Trade War with EU

The U.S. gave a number of countries temporary exemptions from their tariffs for steel and aluminum which are now set to expire on May 1st. The European Union is seeking “unconditional permanent exemptions,” and has published a list of hundreds of American products they could target if the U.S. decides to move forward with tariffs. Trump has threatened to respond to any new EU trade barriers to a tax on vehicles made by European carmakers. If the US and EU go tit for tat it would hurt trade between them which is currently around 1.3 trillion a year.

The next Japan is not China but Thailand

The next Japan is not China but Thailand

Many people think that China is on the path to becoming the next ‘Japan,’ however a recent study has shown that Thailand is advancing quicker is some ways it’d probably prefer to avoid. Thailand is facing the same demographic as Japan 25 years ago, with its aging population, “it’s on the Japanese path of zero inflation, very low interest rates and a big current-account surplus,” (Economist). The aging population levels are rising fast, and the new work force going forward will be smaller than believed. Thailand “should be investing into infrastructure and machinery,” however there’s a lot of conservatism when looking at economic policies as many believe the focus should be on price stability instead of investment. There has been an increase in migrants from Vietnam and Myanmar, but they’re viewed as hurting the economy and stealing jobs rather than fixing the workforce numbers. “Public investment… shrank last year by 1.2%,” however,” receits from foreign tourists rose by 11.7% in 2017, boosting growth against a backdrop of weak domestic demand.” The country is known to attract tourists for its stunning beaches and outstanding nightlife, however citizens of Thailand have not seen an increase of inflation above 1% and in turn causing a slower economic movement than previously thought or expected.

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21739976-once-wildest-emerging-markets-thailand-ageing-fast-its-economic

Student Loans interest rate to rise in line with inflation

This article talks about how student loans interest rates are rising due to a rise in inflation in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland upwards of 6.3%, following an increase in the Retail Price Index measure of Inflation. The interest rate will be charged this autumn from when they start studying until April after they graduate. The rise will not change individuals’ monthly repayments, as these are based on how much they earn, as mentioned by the department for education. The National Union of Students mentions that while the rise is small, it adds psychologically to the burden of debt for young college students. Also, as mentioned by Education Editor Branwen Jeffreys, it is the middle income earners who are to feel the long-impact of high interest rates. He mentions that "if your earnings are low as a graduate, a larger part of your loan is likely to be written off by the government at the end of 30 years". 

It would be interesting to see how the percentage of student loans demanded would be affected in the short run, along with the change in the percentage of college enrollment. It would be interesting to see whether the policy of higher college loan rates would  be altered in response to a drop in college enrollment since the opportunity cost of holding money as an asset decreases when rates on student loans are so high. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/education-43810163

              

Women can't be paid less than men based on past wages, court rules

              This article focuses on the court ruling that women cannot be paid less than men, by using past wages as a benchmark for their pay.   This law makes sense because as the court cited, this is breaking an equal pay legislation that is already passed into law.  I believe this will help the gender wage gap that we have seen, and cannot hopefully pave the way to wage equality in the future.  This will most likely increase consumption ad investment because women will have more disposable income from this ruling, which could spur the economy even more.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/women-can-t-be-paid-less-men-based-past-wages-n864236

Maple Syrup Economics

In the article by Mark Sappenfield he discusses how changes in technology and innovation has led to more efficient and higher production in the maple syrup making process. A recent hedge fund  started a sugaring operation with taps over 200,000 trees. Just over a decade ago it was thought that having 28,000 taps delusional by local farmers. The interesting thing about this industry is the cartel that has formed in the market. The Quebec cartel forces Quebec producers to produce less in order to keep prices stable and at higher prices. It is a very interesting article and I would have never believed that a cartel existed in the maple syrup industry. 


https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/upfront-blog/2018/0422/Where-maple-syrup-meets-global-economics

Why Working on the Railroad Comes With a $25,000 Signing Bonus

This WSJ article by Paul Ziobro gives tremendous insight into the tightening labor market currently within the United States. The article lays out the existence of tremendous signing bonuses as a sign that labor markets are becoming increasingly competitive and companies are in desperate need of workers.
Within the article it is mentioned that, "Some railroad workers are being offered signing bonuses of up to $25,000 to join BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Corp. as the freight railroads struggle to fill jobs... BNSF and Union Pacific are hauling more products across the Western U.S., where their networks are based, and trying to ease congestion in areas with high demand. Freight volumes are rising on strong economic growth and industrial expansion, and a shortage of available truck capacity is pushing more shipments onto rails."

After the explanation of this phenomena, the article mentions that "the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1% in the U.S., and as low as 2.8% in some markets where railroads are hiring. In response, the companies are dangling incentives that analysts and union leaders say are the highest they can recall."



This article presents a great example of the skills gap going on in the United States right now. How should policy makers change what they are doing to help alleviate some of these market needs for firms?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-working-on-the-railroad-comes-with-a-25-000-signing-bonus-1524481201

A Downturn That Costs Jobs Could Catch the U.S. Unprepared

In the last recessions, states across the country found themselves borrowing billions of dollars to continue writing unemployment checks. State unemployment trust funds, which held total reserves of only $9.5 billion in 2010 are strengthening with almost $55 billion dollars in reserve last year. All the states have repaid the entirety of debt owed to the federal government. Although this is an improvement, it seems that many states, including New York, California, and Texas, have missed a major opportunity to rebuild their funding during the recent good economic times. Economists and policy experts have said that the federal government "may not be in a strong position to help the next time the U.S. economy goes south, because federal budget deficits are approaching $1 trillion. Now states are looking to modify terms of unemployment benefits. North Carolina along with 8 other states has reduced the duration of benefits to only 26 weeks. As we hang around the 10 year business cycle correction mark, it will be interesting to see whether or not States will take more aggressive measures to prepare for a recession. Currently, states are not doing an adequate job addressing the issue.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-downturn-that-costs-jobs-could-catch-the-u-s-unprepared-1524424830

We Don't Like Protectionism

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/brazil-finance-minister-we-dont-like-protectionism.html

This article was about Brazil's finance minister, and his outlook on trade in Brazil and the rest of the world. He believes that there should be open trade, and countries shouldn't have to fear tariffs. He believes that open trade is a quick and efficient way to growth and long-term success in an economy. What are your thoughts?

For me, I believe there should be open trade. With free and truly open trade amongst nations, consumers will benefit with increased competition and lower prices. This should boost consumption, and overall output in the economy. It would be nice to less trade threats between countries like the US and China, and instead revert to a way that incentives countries to freely trade with each other.

What global finance chiefs are saying about the global economy

Global financial chiefs are not too worried about the economy yet as they still see global growth reaching almost 4 percent in the coming year. However, as the United States pushes a fiscal stimulus package by Trump has caused stocks to become overinflated. This will cause the Fed to potentially raise interest rates which could lead to some economic instability. In addition, the increased protectionism we have seen lately is also a red flag.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-22/what-global-finance-chiefs-are-saying-about-the-global-economy

What if Tesla's Time Is Running Out?

Tesla has been burning too much cash and causing too much mess, and investors are losing faith in Musk. Musk said that Tesla wanted to enter the market at a place where customers want to pay the high price, the produce a family car that is priced around 89k. It clearly didn't happen because the next two cars were luxurious and priced at above 100k. Tesla hasn't reported an annual net profit since they went public. Tesla is put on a funding treadmill, and its marketing has pushed it far for eight years, but if Tesla has a bad summer, things will look very rough and investors will lose faith completely.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-19/tesla-s-cash-burn-has-elon-musk-s-dreams-living-on-borrowed-time

Zelle, the Banks’ Answer to Venmo, Proves Vulnerable to Fraud

Zelle, which is a service that allows bank customers to end money instantly is booming. Last year alone, Zelle have more customers transferring money through them than Venmo, a rival money transfer app. However, lately hackers have used the system from Venmo and Zelle to steal from the users with more than two dozen customers had their money stolen through Zelle. I am curious to see how Zelle and Venmo would do to protect their users.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/business/zelle-banks-fraud.html?action=click&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=Business%20Day

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The Humbling of India's Tycoons

After watching the two videos about the Russian Oligarchs this situation seems very familiar. This article discusses the immense power that a select few businessmen have in India and refer to them informally as "bollygarchs." However, this article explains that their power is dwindling. The courntry is trying to battle their cronyism and they are beginning to see positive effects.
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21740739-nature-indian-capitalism-changing-long-may-it-last-humbling-indias-tycoons

State and Local Jobs Under Siege as a Middle Class Gateway

Though we have seen steady growth in the private sector of the American economy, growth in public sector wages and jobs have been lagging. Public sector jobs, which used to provide a safe route to the middle class, are now barely able to keep workers economically afloat. The effects of these shifts can be felt the hardest in deep red states that supported the Tea Party in its heyday. These states and counties are extremely against any sort of tax increases and these sentiments are felt in the form of shrinking budgets and scarcity of workers in the public sector. The article cites that public sector jobs make an average 27% lower than comparable jobs in the private sector. Public sector employees are now forced to work two jobs just to retain a decent standard of living. Virtually everyone agrees that the people working these jobs deserve to maintain a moderate standard of living but no one seems to want to front the bill. The questions that I have after reading this article are, how may we solve this problem while still keeping the American economic system in place and would we fare better as a society if we adopted a more liberal approach to the market system like that of Germany or Sweden?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/business/economy/public-employees.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

India’s A.T.M.s Are Running Out of Cash. Again.

The article focuses on the shortage of cash in India and the problems related to it. Several states have implemented withdrawal limits. The workers in India were already seeing a downturn in their earning because of the demonetization and imposition of high level of tax on goods and services. The opposition party leaders have expressed their fear of a forthcoming financial crisis in India. Economists think the reason behind this shortage is unknown and there could be multiple reasons acting together. During demonetization, the black market started collecting ₹2000 notes, as a result , the government stopped the supply of bigger denomination notes. People have started keeping more cash at home due to lack of confidence in banks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/20/business/india-bank-cash-atm.html











https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/20/business/india-bank-cash-atm.html

Surging gas prices unlikely to dent SUV boom

In the United States, the automobile industry has been witnessing an SUV boom for much of the last few decades.  SUVs and trucks have combined for 67% of new car purchases this past year, and cars have witnessed a trend in the opposite direction, showing a 10.8% loss in sales when compared to SUVs and trucks for the first quarter of 2017.

Even though gas prices are going to reach their highest price over the last three years this upcoming summer, consumers are likely to not waver from their commitments to SUVs.  With today's models boasting improved gas mileage and cargo space, consumers are willing to dish out the extra cash per tank in order to obtain the benefits that come with driving an SUV, like comfort and passenger seating.

While the SUV purchases will continue to surge, it is going to be intriguing to see if any other industry is hurt by consumers' choice to allocate more financial resources to their cars, because these consumers will, comparatively, have less money to purchase other everyday items.

Do you see any other industry being hurt by this, or the boom slowing down?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/surging-gas-prices-unlikely-to-dent-suv-boom

Facebook users are mad as hell over the Cambridge Analytica scandal

Facebook users were angry after the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Many users deleted their account as the reaction. The article shows a sharp increase in people expecting compensation for data loss and tougher government regulation after the scandal.

Facebook is losing its reputation and trust, which could cause the serious problem in the short term. The future of Facebook would largely depend on how Facebook reacts. Unlike United Airline, Facebook is not a company hard to be replaced. If United Airline could offer low price and discount tickets, they could still attract customers and time would make customers forget the scandal, but Facebook could not use the same way. I am curious that how the U.S. government would react after the scandal, will they make new policy to regulate the social media company for protecting user privacies, or leave the market free, letting the market self-regulates?

http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-users-want-revenge-after-cambridge-analytica-data-breach-2018-4

IMF warns Turky on its economy

The IMF warned Turkey to reduce its investment incentives recently. Since the United States isn't sending financial aid to Turkey their president chose to increase financial incentives to stimulate the economy . However world sentiment is  changing on these policies because of their high inflation.
https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-economy/imf-warns-turkey-economy

European countries should make it easier for refugees to work

This article talks about how asylum seekers in European countries are not allowed to work until 6 months of arrival and even then, 75% of their income is taken to cover room and board while they live in government run housing. Studies show that the long-term gains to everyone of allowing refugees to work outweigh the short-term costs, not just to the public purse, but to natives’ jobs and wages. In America the average refugee becomes a net fiscal contributor just eight years after arriving. Moreover, Germany has allowed municipalities to adapt their refugee-integration policies to local conditions, whereas Scandinavian countries have one-size-fits-all policies. Scandinavian countries could come up with better policies to integrate their refugee population as studies shows that although vast majority of them have low paying jobs, a large number of these move on to higher skilled higher paying jobs. The governments need to play a more active role to make sure refugee jobs are more complementary to those of native workers, rather than competitive. 

https://www.economist.com/news/international/21740726-it-eases-fiscal-burden-without-hurting-locals-prospects-european-countries-should-make

Bitcoin Is The Religion, But Ripple Would Pack Higher Return

This article compares and contrasts the potential returns on Bitcoin and Ripple (XRP) in the future. To be honest, I have never really understood the craze or uses for these cryptocurrencies. I always feel like the people who write about them are fairly biased/optimistic. For instance, this article mentions that Bitcoin could have a 140% return on investment if its price were to return to its previous high of $20,000. At least for now, I feel that that is an unachievable goal in the near future. XRP is similar in the sense that it reached a high price of $3.30, yet it is currently trading at $0.70. I think this article reveals the high level of risks in these cryptocurrencies. In addition, the endowment effect is very evident, as the crypto owners and article writers ascribe more value to things merely because they own them. What do you think about cryptocurrencies?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/naeemaslam/2018/04/20/bitcoin-is-the-religion-but-ripple-would-pack-higher-return/#605f6f25504b

Mike Pompeo meets with Kim Jong Un

This article discusses the revelation that Mike Pompeo, former CIA Director and current nominee for Secretary of State, visited North Korea earlier this month and met with Kim Jong Un.

The article goes on to discuss the possibility of later visits, including possibly President Trump meeting directly with Kim Jong Un. This is relevant to the class as it deals with the ways in which countries operating by two economic systems relate to each other, as well as the ways that the economy can become a weapon of diplomacy through sanctions. The amount of North Korea's GDP that goes into funding military research and testing also speaks to an economic system where military prowess is valued over production of consumer goods or basic agriculture, somewhat like the former Soviet Union.

Starbucks will close 8,000 US stores May 29 for racial-bias training

The announcement follows uproar over the arrest of two black men who were waiting for a friend at a Philadelphia Starbucks last week. The store manager called the police. The racial bias training will be provided on May 29 to about 175,000 workers. Starbucks says the training will be developed with guidance from experts including former Attorney General Eric Holder. Sherrilyn Ifill, the president of the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund, and Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, will also help design the program, as will executives from the Equal Justice Initiative and Demos, the progressive think tank. The experts will also review the effectiveness of the training, Starbucks said. The two men entered the Starbucks on Thursday and asked to use to the bathroom. An employee told them it was only for paying customers. When they then sat in the store without ordering anything, the manager called police, and the men were arrested for trespassing. No charges were filed. The company says the manager who called the police is no longer working at that store. Starbucks would not comment on other reports that she has left the company by mutual agreement.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/17/news/companies/starbucks-store-closings-racial-bias-education/index.html

RPT-EXPLAINER-The state of Raul Castro's economic reforms in Cuba

This article is a summary of what Cuba is doing in order to reform their economy. It seems that the government is shifting to more of a capitalist economy, but they are trying to hold onto the socialist equality background. One part that I thought is interesting is the part about private property. The government recently authorized the buying and selling of homes and cars in 2011. Another part that was interesting was that the government still has a centrally planned and monopoly on foreign trade, but they are slowly privatizing the state owned companies. There seems to be clues that Cuba is shifting slowly into a transition economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-politics-castro-changes/rpt-explainer-the-state-of-raul-castros-economic-reforms-in-cuba-idUSL1N1RT1YK

IMF Sees Global Risk in Trump Trade Threats and Tax Cuts

A recent report by the IMF predicts overall strong trade growth in major world economies in 2018. However, one area of concern for them was in President Trump's recent policies. The report never mentioned him by name, but it nonetheless warned of the growing likelihood of a trade war between the US and China. His recent tax cuts were also a cause for concern, as the IMF predicts that this could cause inflation within the United States. These outside warnings will likely fall on deaf ears, however, as Trump is known for his strong disdain of international organizations and his stubbornness.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/17/us/politics/imf-global-economy-interest-rates-inflation.html?hpw&rref=politics&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well

Pound's strong run continues with push above $1.43

The pound has continued its recent strong run against the dollar pushing firmly above $1.43.  It is the seventh session in a row that the pound has made gains against the US currency.  The strong means that among the G10 group of rich nations the UK has the best-performing currency this year.  Traders say the the prospect of higher UK interest rates has made the pound more attractive while in the mean time the dollar has been hit by fears of trade disputes.  Since the vote to leave the European Union in June 2016 the pound sank, but since then it has made a comeback.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43786232 

U.S.’s Re-Entry in Pacific Trade Deal Would Come at a Price

Trump has recently asked two economic aides to look explore the issue of re-entering the Trans-Pacific Partnership, originally created to counteract Chinese influence over various markets. In the original partnership deal, the 11 countries of the TPP suspended approximately 20 provisions, many of which benefited the U.S. If the TPP-11 are to see the United States return to the TPP, they will likely need to reinstate provisions extending the "length of copyrights, boosting intellectual-property protection for biologic drugs and reducing barriers for overnight delivery companies, like FedEx Corp," to entice the US to re-join. Negotiations are poised to be difficult as unanimous consent from all 11 nations is required to re-admit the United States. Trump may have to concede bits of his "better deal", something he referenced in a recent tweet regarding the manner. It is likely, that Trump is beginning to take the TPP more seriously as he aims to tighten his grip on trade with China

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-re-entry-in-pacific-trade-deal-would-come-at-a-price-1523814894