ANALYSIS, COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS IN PROF. SKOSPLES' ECONOMIC SYSTEMS COURSE AT OHIO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Alan Greenspan: Stimulus hurt recovery
Death Toll Estimate in Japan Soars as Relief Efforts Intensify
Japan’s $5 trillion economy, which is the third largest in the world, was unbelievably threatened by the 8.9 earthquake, tsunami and recent hazards from the damaged nuclear rectors that leaked radiation. The disaster caused the economy to experience extreme turmoil by death, destruction and homelessness. This terrible catastrophe has left more than 10,000 people dead and millions of people without water, power, heat, or transportation. With all the collective anxiety, Japan’s stock market has seen the worst drop in three years with the main index falling 5.5%. The Bank of Japan put about $86 billion into the economy on Monday because of the worries for the banking and financial systems. The prime minister of Japan has kept a positive outlook on the crisis stating, “If the nation works together, we will overcome”. Since Japan does have such a strong economy, I believe they will in fact overcome this terrible tragedy.
From Gas to Gadgets: Japan's Disaster Means Higher Prices
Monday, March 14, 2011
Slower Growth Signaled by Wal-Mart Stock as Commodities Rise
Economists ignore volatile commodity prices when calculating inflation. The poorest families, who spend as much as 25 percent of their after-tax income on food and fuel, don’t have that luxury.
Rising prices “will shave a couple tenths off consumer spending, and the consumers that are going to get hit the most are at the lower end of the income scale,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. On March 11, he lowered his forecast for first quarter growth to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent and second quarter growth to 3.5 percent from 4 percent, citing in part the persistence of higher energy costs.
America’s poorer families are suffering more than richer households as they face a bigger squeeze from the highest gasoline expenses in more than two years, stagnating wages and a jobless rate that has remained at or above 8.9 percent since April 2009. Their pain is shared by their preferred retailers, including Walmart and J.C. Penney Co.
“Rising gas prices and still-high unemployment levels weigh on the minds of our customers,” Bill Simon, U.S. chief executive officer of Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart, said on a Feb. 22 earnings call. “Pressure from higher energy and commodity costs are factors that we will watch closely, as they affect our own logistics and transportation costs, as well as the prices the customer pays,” he said.
Creating a Clean Energy Economy
China Operating with a Trade Deficit?
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Rustbelt Recovery
Building excitement: Can China avoid a bubble?
The article points out that the Chinese government is trying to respond to the high level of demand, while attempting to dampen it down at the same time. Many policies have been put in place in an attempt to address inflation in the housing market and lessen housing demand. For example, new homeowners are now required to put down a thirty percent down payment before purchasing a house. There is a real concern that if demand isn't addressed, housing prices will continue to rise at an unsustainable rate.
We have seen the mistakes within the U.S. housing market and we are now seeing China learn from those mistakes. If China is not able to offset a housing bubble burst, the consequences will be far reaching, and may rock the global economy into another mini-recession.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Men's wage
Friday, March 4, 2011
America's Recovery: The new new normal
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Unrest in the Middle East: The Price of Fear
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Uncorking Enterprise
Recently, the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), a new index created by various academics, has been used to judge how favorable and friendly different nations are to entrepreneurship. This index focuses on business creation, but the problem is that it does not distinguish between new companies that will have a big impact and smaller companies that will not have an impact, such as street vendors.
Another index that is being unveiled today, is the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index, which takes into account high growth companies, ambition, and prevalence of start-ups. The interesting result of this index is that it shows bottlenecks in a nation's economic or financial systems. For example, even though Britain is developed, there is a shortage of venture capital and therefore it is not so conducive to entrepreneurship. The other interesting preliminary result of the index shows that many of the scandinavian countries are in the top ten, which indicates that it is possible to have a welfare state that promotes entrepreneurs.
This article was very enlightening, and it shows how a country could improve some economic problems by promoting entrepreneurship and reducing the cost of opening a business. The new indices measuring this variable are just beginning to be used, but there is hope that they will be able to shed some light onto what makes a country favorable towards entrepreneurs.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Billions of Bloat Uncovered in Beltway
Trade Initiatives
Poll Shows Support for Embattled Public Sector Workers
The biggest protests have been in Wisconsin and Ohio where newly elected Republican leaders will push for these unfavorable reforms.
The most interesting point in the article was that most people surveyed were less opposed to tax increases- the governors are more opposed to it while the people are most imposed to cutting union rights and federal employees salary.
Stocks on The Rise
Economists' biggest worry: Federal budget deficit
Oil Climbs on Libya Tensions; Treasuries Advance, Euro Weakens on Ireland
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Economic growth trimmed, consumers more upbeat
The Big Airlines get Cold Feet
Delta airlines increased it's fares in hopes to bring in extra cash on the 18th. When airlines do this, they do it in the hopes that other airlines will follow their lead so that they can call make more money without one seeming overpriced. Once Delta had upped their prices by as much as $60, American Airlines did the same. However, Southwest Airlines however did not. Considering that Southwest is still one of the cheapest, it made Delta and American look way overpriced with their increases and both Delta and American had lowered their prices back to normal by the end of the week. This shows the huge amount of competition between 3 of the most major airlines in America.
Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat to U.S. Economy
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Regulation Is Lax for Water From Gas Wells
However, natural gas also poses many hazards. It causes water to contain higher levels of radioactivity. While people clearly do not drink drilling wastewater, the reason to use the drinking-water standard for comparison is that there is no comprehensive federal standard for what constitutes safe levels of radioactivity in drilling wastewater. It can also contaminate the air. Many health problems arise in several regions where drilling plants operate such as an increasing rate of children who have asthma.
However, the regulators are still unclear about its problems and still claim that coal has far more issues. But the hazards associated with natural-gas production and drilling are far less understood than those associated with other fossil fuels, and the regulations have not kept pace with the natural-gas industry’s expansion.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Libya's revolt scares oil traders
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Libya oil production grinding to a halt
Due to the ongoing violence in Libya, half of their oil companies have shut down in production. Italian oil giant Eni, the largest foreign oil company in Libya, declined to specify how much of its production has been shut in, saying that disclosing that information could jeopardize the remaining output.Eni produces about 250,000 barrels a day from Libya, which has a total oil output of 1.6 million barrels per day. Worldwide oil consumption is pegged at 87.5 million barrels per day.
Most of US companies are still operating. U.S.-based Marathon told CNNMoney the 45,000 barrels a day it produces in Libya has not been impacted. Occidental said its 13,000 barrels a day are also still flowing.
Several of the major oil companies, including ExxonMobil and BP have recently signed leases in Libya but are still in the exploration stages and are not yet producing any oil in the country. Those leases, worth billions, may be in jeopardy if the Libyan government collapses.
Eni said the natural gas pipeline running under the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy, which supplies 10% of that nation's gas, has been shut off, but despite that, it is still able to meet its customers' demand for gas.
If the violence in Libya goes on, it is not sure how long the rest of the oil companies can still remain in operation. If this is the case, the shock to the oil price is unpredictable.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Consumer confidence at 3-year high on job optimism
NEW YORK (AP) -- Americans are feeling more chipper about the economy than they have in three years.
The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 70.4 this month, up from 64.8 in January, as Americans expressed more optimism about their income prospects and the direction the economy is headed, a private research group reported Tuesday.
It's the strongest reading since the early days of the most severe recession the U.S. has seen since the 1930s.
A robust stock market and falling unemployment are lifting Americans' spirits in spite of rising food and energy prices and a still-weak housing sector. In addition, a cut to the Social Security tax meant Americans started seeing more money in their paychecks in January, which may be boosting consumer spending.
Retailers including Macy's Inc., Home Depot Inc. and VF Corp., maker of Lee jeans and Vans shoes, reported better-than-expected earnings Tuesday. Home Depot posted its first annual revenue increase since before the housing crash in 2006, while Macy's, the country's second-largest department store chain, saw sales at stores open at least a year climb 4.3 percent...
This is good news, the consumer confidence is gradually increasing since November. This may mean that the U.S. economy is getting stronger as well despite the global news regarding the Middle East. My concern is that increasing oil prices would have impact on the imports and the prices may increase, resulting in a decrease of consumer confidence.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Obama’s 2012 Budget: New Taxes in, Tax Breaks Out
Art or Business?
Fears of Chaos Temper Calls for Change in Morocco
The people of Morocco are requesting for a more legitimate democracy by limiting the power of the King, Mohammed VI- who with his advisors holds most of the power. Similar to Egypt- there have been protestant movements via the internet and Facebook and other social network websites. But there have been large protestant movements with violence and arrests.
Mohammed VI and his advisors understand some type of reform is needed in Morocco- about 20 percent of the population lives below the poverty line; where the median age is 26.5; and where there is high unemployment, high illiteracy and a level of corruption judged to be more severe than in Tunisia, if below that of Egypt.
Libya Death Toll Surges in Crackdown
Should the federal government let states go bankrupt?
While bailout of companies seems to be over, state bailout is still a hot topic. This year state governments face a collective $125 billion in deficits. With high unemployment rate, state governments need money to pay off the benefits. However, they also need to pay the bill to the federal government for the previous bailouts. What the federal government should do about this deficit is yet to be decided. There aren’t too many options, however. Mr. Obama offered states a short-term relief by postponing the bill till 2014. Newt Gingrich, a putative Republican candidate next year, and Jeb Bush, Florida’s respected former governor, proposed that states “should be allowed to go bankrupt , so they can restructure such liabilities.” Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, on the other hand, rejects the possibility of either bail-outs or bankruptcies “States can deal with this and have the ability to do so on their own,” he said recently. Should the federal government yet once again bailout the states?
Consumer prices show inflation turning up
Many economists are able to agree on the fact that the U.S. has hit the low of inflation, that inflation should now be expected to rise. But the question is, 'to what extent will it rise?'
Economists differ in their predictions about what will happen next. If unemployment stays at a high, around 9-10 percent, many think inflation will stay at its current low levels. This is consistent with the theories behind the Phillips Curve. Recent filings for unemployment benefits seem to suggest that high unemployment is here to stay for a while, and therefore low inflation will be around as well. But even this data is murky, as many attribute the recent rise in unemployment to volatile winter conditions, and they say unemployment will continue to decline.
This issue brings about questions for the Fed as to what direction to take. The Fed prefers to have about 2 percent inflation so they are questioning what sort of steps need to be taken, if any, to address the issue at hand. The danger of having stagflation should be in the back of their mind as they develop their next move. Having high unemployment with equally high inflation could prove catastrophic to an already weak economic recovery.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
The United States' Slowdown
Threat of Protests in China
How Convincing Is the Case for Free Trade?
Why Obama can't save infrastructure
American transportation system is now in desperate need of costly repairs but the political leaders cannot agree on how to pay for them. President Obama just proposed $556 billion in new infrastructure spending over the next six years, including money for road and bridge repair, high-speed rail development, and the formation of a National Infrastructure Bank.
Traditionally, spending on transportation infrastructure was paid for by increasing gas taxes, but today's GOP orthodoxy is to oppose all new revenue generators. Another solution is that state and municipal governments can partially privatize their infrastructure assets. The federal government is like a piggy-bank for local governments, and actual implementation and maintenance decisions should be made by local governments.
The article argues that it is time to get over the exception that the America's transportation infrastructure should be government-owned and operated. The reasons are, first, the current system isn't working and there is huge needs in funding for infrastructure. Second, it's counter-intuitive to think that a private investment firm wouldn't do everything in its power to make its transportation assets safe and efficient. And third, local governments have the ability to structure these leases any way they see fit. Infrastructure privatization provides a solution to the current standoff between Obama and House Republicans -- by providing for investment to repair and maintain existing infrastructure, without requiring tax increases or enabling parochial pork. There are also other benefits for infrastructure privatization: up-front payments for local governments to pay existing project debt and to fund other infrastructure needs.
Oil Flows, but High Prices Jangle Nerves
How Obama handled Egypt
Obama Looks to Postpone Budgetary Reform
How the middle class became the underclass
G-20 Agrees on Yardsticks for Imbalances as U.S. Seeks Leverage on Yuan
Next G-20 meeting in mid-April will formulate voluntary set of guidelines for national economic policy that will be a yardstick that can be used for leverage on Yuan. Nations are clashing over policies that are needed to erase global imbalance and sustain recovery. But the agreement of G-20 finance officials to monitor global economic imbalances more closely might prevent a future crisis if it is put in to action effectively.