Monday, December 15, 2008

UK Economy Is Falling

The head of Barclay's bank, John Varley, says he believes housing prices in the UK will continue to fall and will end being 30% lower than at their peak. He also suspects that unemplyment will rise to 7.5%- that would be an additional 700,00 jobs lost. Also, foreign investors in the UK have decreased because of the downward slope the value of the pound is on.

A main distinction between the UK and US is that the EU has strict rules as to the limitations of the government on situations like this. The government is restricted from helping the banks because rules state the government cannot rack up a debt to help boost the economy. Therefore, the only measure the government can do is keep inflation artificially low.

Asian Markets Soar

Markets in China and Japan increased 2.5-5% at the end of last week. It is suspected that the increasing possibility of an automaker bailout in the US is the reason the markets went up. No, official statement has been made yet, but hopefully the Asian markets reflect what will happen in the US.

Gas Prices Going Back Up?

After 86 consecutive days gas prices are starting to increase once again. Over the past two months there has been a 57% drop in oil prices. All but 2 states now have average gas price below $2. Since the prices have dropped so much demand has increased for gasoline and it is feared that gas prices have bottomed out.

Hopefully, the cheap prices continue through the summer, but it is not likely.

McCain vs. Palin-winner McCain (not)

McCain will not back Palin if she decides to run for president. He mentions other up and coming governors he would like to see assume more leadership in the GOP. Also, McCain speaks in the past tense when he says it was, "a great joy to know Palin."

Trouble in paradise with the ex-running mates? Neh, never saw this one coming.

More Pain at Goldman and Morgan Stanley

In the midst of this financial crisis and recession, the banks have undoubtedly been hit the hardest so far by the problem. Even with their federal aid and the gigantic bailout they received from the government this quarter does not bode well for banks. For the first time in its history of being a publicly traded company, Goldman Sachs will announce a quarterly loss. They are logging a $3.50 loss per share but insiders are saying it will be closer to $5, which means upwards of a $2 billion loss. Morgan Stanley isn't having the best quarter ever and will most likely lose about 37 cents per share, which isn't as bad as Goldman, but all losses are bad. How many more banks and investment firms will report losses in the next quarter?

New Forecast of the US economy. What's coming next?

Here we go with another forecast of the US economy in the months to come. This article compares the current recession with the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82. From the survey of 54 economists, the downturn is expected to end in June 2009. Since it was said to start in December 2007, the current recession will be lasting for 18 months, 2 months longer than the two previous recessions.
"This recession has centered not on businesses but consumers, who are being hit by dwindling home prices and job losses. The economists on average said the unemployment rate will peak at 8.4% in response to this recession. While that actual rate was surpassed in both the 1970s and 1980s, it would mark a four-percentage-point increase from the low of 4.4% in March 2007. Only the 1973-75 recession, with a 4.1-percentage-point increase, had a larger jump in the postwar period." Economists also expect job cuts to continue into 2010. Some others with more pessimistic view even thinks job market will not recover until four more years. With that being said, probably the best choice for us will be to buy more time studying (master, PhD, etc), because it'll take more time than previously forecasted for the economy to recover.

India Unveils Stimulus Moves After Central Bank Cuts Rates

Indias goverment will increas the goverment spending to ease taxes to stimulate the economy. The goverment has planned 200 billion rupees ($4 billion) more than reviously planned package.

In addition to the fiscal stimulus, the goverment has requested currency-swap with the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase the amount of capital in the Indian domestic market.

The problems that each of the countries deal are very different but the main idea of monetary easinig and providing fiscal stimulus to the domestic market are simlar around the countries. Although there may be challeges in imposing policies, but through strengthening of the economy structure and development, it can significantly increase the effctiveness of those policy implemented.

China hit hard by fall in exports

On December 11, the Chinese goverment anounced that the exports fell in November for the first itme in seven years due to the global financial crisis. As China remains to be the largest exporter in the world, the decreased in the export resulted from the decrease in the demand for oversea goods has influeced the export in China significantly.

The chinese exports decline about 2.2 % and imports fell 17.9% in China.

This huge drop in imports has been the biggest since the early 1990s, and the goverment pledge to do everything that they could to maintain a stable health economy.

This figures from China has been a big suprise to other Asian countries, as goods demand are large in China. Due to this the GDP of China is expected to decrease in 2009 until 2010 where the recovery of the financial crisis occurs.

South Korea Cuts Interest RAte to 3%, a Record.

One of the ways that U.S. is seeking the recovery from the recession is by lowering interst rate, known as the expansionary monetary policy. Decrease in the interst rate would give incentive for people to spend rather than save which is a Keynesian approach of looking at the econmy, and it would also help the firms to invest more by borrowing more credit from financial institutions.

This policy is not only used in U.S. but also used in South Korea. According to The New York Times, South Korea's central bank anounced to cut the interest rate in its history in an attempt to cushion it seconmy from the global down turn. Similarly in Taiwan and China, the interst rate has been cut to 2% and 2.4% respectively.

The Asian Development Bank presented the expected frowth of Asia's dveloping nations to slow to 5.8% from 9%. As the countries are quickly seeking for ways to increase production and initate growth in the economy, such policies that allows more capital flow, incrase in availabilty of credit, and growth in the econmy are currently implemted.

China Will Define Oil Prices

There as been decrease in production of all goods and services observed through out th world. One may say that the reason for this is due to the finacial crisis, the decrease can also result from the increase in the energy prices.

Historically, the oil prices has been increasing significantly, the explaination for this is due to the lmited supply of oil, which decreases the supply of the oil every time we use it. However, increase in the demand for oil can also be the driving force for the price increase.

In this article, China's demand for oil will determine the prices of oil next year. As china plays a singificant role in the demand for oil, increase in the oil demand for China can easily increase the oil prices. Although production for all countries around the world is expected to significantly decreased as financial crisis is expected to continue, it is projected that China would remain on the growth path. This may rise concerns regarding the price of oil as all countries are facing difficulties in the Economy. Increas in the energy prices would bring further damange to the economy.

I feel that as no one firm has the ability to increase their production, increase in the energy prices would bring further damange to the economy by further reduing the production. I believe that it would help significantly for all countries if any policy regarding subsity towards energy are implemented.

Bank Bailout Should be Reversed

David Kudla, CEO of Mainstay Capital Management, had stated that if the bank bailout had failed there would have been a global catastrophe. But, according to Roger Nightingale, an economist from Pointon York, thinks otherwise. He believes that the banks should pay back their bailout money to help out the other industries. When the government decided to give help to the banks because they were "special" gave the other industries hope that if they were about to fail that the government will bail them out too. Now that the government has declined the auto bailout, they should get the banks to repay their bailout money and help the other industries, while helping out the banks with a cut in the interest rates and no fiscal adjustments.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Japan's economy to contract at faster pace

One of the strongest country in Asia, Japan is contracting at a faster pace due to the global financial crisis. The main reasons for the fast contraction in the economy is due to the decrease in exports and production. According to this artcle, Japan's industrial output fell by 3.1% in Octber which a record of 8.6 % fall in the fourth quater. AS for the GDP, it has been creased by 0.9%. It is expected that the recesion in Japan would likely to continue till 2009, and a slow recovery would be initiated.

During this semester for another class, I have reserached the effect of the global financial crisis in the Asian countries. Very similar to this article, I found that there has been increasing amount of corporate bankrupcies due to the financial crisis. The main reasons were the decrease in overseas demand in Japnese goods which significatly decreased the export of the country, tight domestic financial conditions which limited the availability of credit for the finacial instiutions resuling in decrease in the growth. As projected on this article, the GDP for all countries around the world including Japan would decrease and a slow steady growth would be intiated at the end of 2009.

There are policies implemented to recover from the financial crisis, but as all countries are facing dried up liquidity in the money market, all countries including Japn are currently facing difficulties in recoving from the crisis rapidly and effectively

Last Full Week of the Stock Market this Year, Still Many Questions

With the failure of the auto bailout this week, and the Fed meeting upcoming, Wall Street might not have the normal year end surge that it usually has this year. The bailout news might effect the meeting of the Fed, who is expected to lower the interest rate another .5%, but if the Bush administration helps out the auto companies, then that might instill some hope into the market. Even though some analysts still think that the market is resilient and holding in there even with all of the bad news, there still seems as if there is more to come.

Capitalist Fools

Another joseph stiglitz article, which identifies five key mistakes that led to the current crisis-under Reagan, Clinton, and Bush II—and one national delusion.

No. 1: Firing the Chairman under the Reagan administration
No. 2: Tearing Down the Walls
No. 3: Applying the Leeches
No. 4: Faking the Numbers
No. 5: Letting It Bleed

It will give you another perspective for the current economic situation. If you were in Prof. Simon's monetary and fical policy this semester, this is a best summary of what we've learned in the class! Highly encouraged to read guys.

China, South Korea reach 180b yuan currency swap deal

The globalization has decreased the boundaries between the countries generating free flow of information, culture as well as exchange in capital and goods. This has allowed countries to keep close relationship in the economy which is one of the main reasons that created the spilover effect of the financial crisis.

Among the countries that are influenced by the global financial crisis, one of them is Asian countries. The effect of the global financial crisis has brought devistation in the Asian economy which resulted in slowing of ecnomic growth and decrease in export. To minimze the effect and to recover from the devistations, Asian economies have beem imposing policies to help out the financial sector as well as to keep the confidence level relatively high to maintain the demand for goods. Similar to the bailout plan, one of the plans that Asian countries created is the 180bilion Yuan currency swap deal.

According to this article, China and South Korea have reached a deal regarding currency swap of 180 bilion yuan which is about 26.28 billion dolars. The deal is expected to last for thre years and can be extended with agreements of both sides. The aim for this policy is to proide adequate liquidity for financial systems of the two major East Asian economies.

However, as the Korean won has depreciated by more than 30% this year due to the spread of the financial crisis, the curency swap would definately provide more stable won value as it proivides South Korea with more liquidity to stabilize its curency.

Personally, this is a very good news for me as all of my familes are back in Korea. There has been many policies imposed by the Korean goverment including the currency swap with the Federal Reserve of U.S., but it has not been enough to provide stabilization in the econmy. As Korea and U.S. has been keeping a very close relatioship historically, any deviation in U.S. can have significant and immediate effect in Korean economy. I hope further policy can be implemented to stabilize the economy in Korea.

Job Losses Worst Since '74: 533,000 Shed in November

This is another interesting article I found regarding the curent recession.

This article emphasizes that the current job cuts especially November were sum up to 533,000 which isthe largest one0month drop since 1974. With this job cut, the current unemployment is determined as 6.7% which is a result of a constant increase from 2007.

It was really interesting to see two articles that are published recently that talks about different point of view regarding the recession. When looking at this article alone, the huge number of job cuts and the emphasis as comared to 1974 seems may bring worries, however when comparing to the situation during Great Depression, the current recession may not seem so serious.

U.S. recession not close to 1930s: NBER

Currently, there has been many articles that explains about the negative effect that the financial crisis has on the economy, resulting recession, but I haven't really seen articles that had a different view on the recession.

In this article, the current U.S. economic recession isescribed as not even close to the Great Depression. According to James Poterba, the president of the National Bureau of Economic Research quoted that"We are in a very differnt place than the U.S. economy as comared to the 1930s, and it is possible to have the worst postwar recession without getting anywhere close to what it was in the 1930s..."

As the unemployment rate projection of 8~9% which is far from how it was during the reat Depression, he emphasized that the current depression may be longer than average but not as serious as how it is discussed in the media currently.

It was interetsing to see different point of view regarding the current recesion as it is one of the major economic concern currently.

New England Faces Big Downturn

This is an article abou the effect of the financial crisis in the U.S. There has been many articles and concerns regarding the recession and the financial institutions, but this article mainly focuses on how it is influencing the states in U.S.

Along with the current recession in the U.S. economy, New England states are also facing a significant recession. This recession will lay off 250,000 jobs which is about 3.6% of its employment, and it is predicted that unemployment would continue to increase through 2011. As the industries in New England states are highly concentrated in business investments and high-income dependent industries, the recovery is expected to be weaker and slower as compared to other regions in the nation. With the sharp decline in the housing market and the growth of real income per capita, New England will continue to experience recession.

Gender inequality hinders Korea's advancement

Social services provided by governments are becoming more crucial as women's roles in economy are getting important. In Korea, as the wasted female labor is a big obstacle for economic development, the government seeks hard for solutions.

The World Economic Forum publishes Global Gender Gap Index every year, which shows the level of inequality in a country. I think it is also interesting to look at.
http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Gender%20Gap/index.htm

Based on the report linked above, let's share where your countries are located in terms of gender inequality and real stories about inequality in your countires.

Big cheese bailout for Parmesan

Here in US, people talk about bail out of the car manufacturers. But in Italty, cheese companies are subjects to the government bail out. I thought it is so interesting considering all the bail outs they have.

Parmigiano Reggiano, Italy's King of Cheese, is in trouble. Robust in flavour and crumbly, it is a classic of Italy's artisan food traditions, made by hand by 430 craft producers around the city of Parma. But with Italian consumption falling as costs soar, almost a third of producers now face bankruptcy. Now Italy's Minister of Agriculture, Luca Zaia, has come to the rescue, promising to buy 100,000 Parmigiano Reggiano cheeses, and also 100,000 of its less costly competitor, Grana Padano.


This is Italy's big cheese bailout. Essentially, the government will be gobbling up 3 per cent of Parmesan production at an estimated cost of €50m (£44.7m) and distributing it to the needy. Each 35kg wheel of Parmigiano costs between €8 and €8.50 to make, but the wholesale price has declined for the past four years even as the cost of milk and energy has soared.

"We just need a bit of time to reorganise ourselves," said Giorgio Apostoli of Coldiretti, Italy's agriculture lobby. "This is a historic product with an ancient tradition. There ought to be policies to safeguard those who produce it."

But Professor Giuliano Noci, of the Milan Polytechnic, said a better solution would be for the government to "launch a sustained marketing campaign in the emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia and India, to educate consumers to appreciate the quality" of the cheese.

Bank of America to cut up to 35,000 jobs

Bank of America Corp said on Thursday it plans to eliminate 30,000 to 35,000 jobs over three years, reflecting its pending purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co and weaker business activity stemming from the economic recession.
The cuts could affect as much as 11.4 per cent of the combined companies' workforce of about 308,000 people, and are intended to help save $7 billion of annual costs.
Bank of America said the cuts will come from both companies and affect all business lines, and in part reflect "the weak economic environment, which is affecting the level of business activity."
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said it won't determine the final number of cuts until early 2009, and that as many as possible will come through attrition.
Bank of America employs about 247,000 people and Merrill about 61,000. The merger values Merrill at about $20.5 billion and is expected to close on January 1, 2009, creating the largest US bank by assets.
Financial companies have announced more than 250,000 job cuts this year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, as losses soared from mortgages, credit cards and securities write-downs.
Bank of America announced its cuts less than four weeks after Citigroup Inc set plans to eliminate 52,000 jobs, or 15 per cent of its workforce, by early 2009.
'If you asked me six months ago I would be surprised, but in this day and age, it doesn't look as draconian, especially compared with what Citigroup did,' said Howard Diamond, chief executive of Diamond Consultants, a Chester, New Jersey, recruiter.
Other financial companies to cut jobs in recent months include Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley. Bank of America previously said it would cut 7,500 jobs following the July 1 purchase of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp.
Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri said the bank would not elaborate on where the latest job cuts will come from, how many might come from attrition, or where the banks' business activity had been hurt.
One recruiter said attrition could account for most of the announced job cuts, and that more cuts may be needed to make Bank of America more competitive.
Eventual losses may be 'substantially higher' than 35,000, with many coming from the middle ranks, said Gustavo Dolfino, president of WhiteRock Group LLC, a New York-based recruiter.
Shareholders of Bank of America and Merrill approved the merger on December 5. The transaction was originally valued at $50 billion, but the value has fallen because Bank of America shares have declined.

S Korea parents fined

A South Korean court has fined the parents of a teenager more than $60,000 for failing to supervise their son an 18-year-old with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder after he raped a local seven-year-old girl in 2006. The court found it necessary because he had grown up watching porn and had imitated a film he had seen, during the attack.

The boy is serving a 10-year sentence but the court ruled that his parents are also liable for his crime. A court statement read, "The parents could have prevented the crime with appropriate education but failed to show enough attention to their child and neglected their duty to raise their child so that he can properly adjust to society.

I don't feel that this was necessary, but I also do not know all of the details. If the boy had ADHD maybe the parents were too busy working to try and support some special medication and doctors bills, and schooling to be around him all the time. They also could have just been neglectful. There are just too many questions left to answer. Even so if you saying the boy is responsible enough to serve 10 years then his parents can't be that ($60,000) responsible as well. I feel like the court was trying to have it's cake and eat it too here, you can't just throw around blame at everyone involved. Next they should sue the porn producers and distributer. I wouldn't endorse it either but depending on the situation one could even blame the girl to an extent.

Pact targets Pakistan terror link

While unveiling a £6m ($8.9m) deal with Pakistan he calls "the most comprehensive anti-terrorist program" between the UK and another country, Gordon Brown has proclaimed three-quarters of the most serious terror plots being investigated by UK authorities have links to Pakistan. Gordon, who is currently in Pakistan meeting President Asif Ali Zardari, was in India in talks with premier Manmohan Singh. UK police would like to question Pakistani suspect, Mohammed Ajmal Amir Qasab, in the Mumbai attacks, about terror groups operating from Pakistan. Mr Brown's series of meetings in the region came as Pakistan accused India of violating its airspace, which India has denied, but has concedes to a security overhaul blaming Pakistan-based militants for the Mumbai attacks.

Gaza crowds for Hamas anniversary

Tens of thousands of Hamas supporters are rallying in a Gaza City stadium to celebrate the 21st anniversary of the militant group's founding. The mass rally was not without spectacle. It had a sea of green flags, and trying to portray Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since a violent takeover in June 2007, as a symbol of strength. In Cairo Israeli and Egyptian officials were to meet in a bid to renew a six-month-old Gaza ceasefire with Hamas. However, many, including Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal, have doubts about success.

Armies 'attack Uganda rebels'

In Uganda three African armies, Ugandan, DR Congolese and the government of South Sudan's, have launched a joint offensive against Ugandan rebels based in eastern DR Congo, military officials say. The rebel group is known as the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in the Garamba region of DR Congo. This attack seems to to be incurred by LRA leader Joseph Kony, wanted by the International Criminal Court stalling on a peace deal. The LRA has led a rebellion for more than 20 years in northern Uganda and the fighting has displaced some two million people.

President Bush has SKILLZ!!!!

Check these razor sharp reflexes of president Bush has he dodges shoes thrown at him at a press conference on a surprise visit to Iraq. An Iraqi journalist was the thrower of the shoes and yelled "this is a goodbye kiss from the Iraqi people, dog," before he was wrestled to the ground. The soles of shoes are considered an insult in Arab culture. During the trip, Mr Bush and Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki signed the new security agreement between the two countries.
All the president had to comment on the topic was "All I can report is a size 10," he said according to the Associated Press news agency.

Although he was wrestled down by many I wonder how many men in the room secretly applaud George Bush's attacker.

The worst has yet to come?

The article titled, "8 really, really scary predictions," attempts to show how things will get worse, much worse before they get better. Although the article is frightening with its statistics, it fortells a future that will probably not be far from the truth. Often to stimulate spending and raise consumer confidence, statistics of the economy are presented in a brighter manner to lower the likelihood of there being a self fufilling prophesy. The article predicts that we will likely see GDP fall further throughout 2009, and the recovery of 2010/2011 will be minimal ranging around "1-1.5%." Also that unemployment will rise another two percent, nearing 10%, something that has not been seen for decades. Home prices are predicted to fall another 15% before finally bottoming out in 2010. Finally, article highly recommends to stay away from risky investments in the stock and credit market and stick to secure low returns. This is definitely a grim article, but nevertheless portrays the near future more accurately that some may want to consider or face. It also does not say that wealth will be impossible to gain over the upcoming years, but rather it must be accumulated using different methods and strategy than before.

Another top broker accused of fraud on Wall Street

Bernard L. Madoff, a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market and a force in Wall Street trading for nearly 50 years, was arrested by federal agents Thursday, a day after his sons turned him in for running what they said their father called "a giant Ponzi scheme."

Mr. Madoff's Fairfield Sentry Ltd., a hedge fund run by Madoff Investment Services to invest in shares in the S&P 100, claimed to be up 5.6% through the end of November, a period when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was down 37.65%. In October, Fairfield Sentry was said to be down 0.06%, a month when the S&P 500 lost 16.8%. Since its inception in December 1990, the fund averaged a 10.5% annual return, according to fund documents.

Such returns sparked widespread skepticism for years on Wall Street. News stories raised questions about his approach. A number of traders suggested his firm could be buying shares for its own account just before it filled orders for customers, an illegal act called front-running.

In 2001, Mr. Madoff told Barron's that charges of front-running were "ridiculous."

U.S. District Judge Louis Stanton, who is overseeing the SEC's case against Mr. Madoff and his firm, on Thursday appointed Lee Richards, a Manhattan lawyer, as the firm's receiver in order to preserve its assets and accounts outside the U.S. The judge also ordered Mr. Madoff and his firm not to move assets. At a hearing set for Friday, the judge will consider the SEC's request to grant powers to the receiver over the entire firm, and a complete asset freeze.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

As the Rich Get Poorer, Teenagers Feel the Crunch

It is impossible to quantify how many affluent parents have trimmed allowances in recent months — or how many of their offspring, in turn, have sought either formal employment or odd jobs. But interviews with dozens of teenagers, parents, educators and employers suggest that many youngsters from well-to-do families seem to have found a new work ethic as the economic crisis that has jeopardized their parents’ jobs and investments has also led to less spending money for Saturday night movies or binges at Abercrombie & Fitch.

Teenage participation in the national labor force has fallen steadily since 1979, when 49 percent of all 16- and 17-year-olds had some kind of work; last year, the figure was 30 percent. A recent study by the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University showed that teenage employment from 2005 to 2007 rose with household incomes that go up to $150,000 a year: 14 percent of teenagers from families earning less than $20,000 a year work, as do 26 percent of those whose families make $60,000, 32 percent of those earning $80,000 and 33 percent of those between $120,000 and $150,000.

In Poland, Style Comes Used and by the Pound

this is not a tale of people buying used clothes in the midst of recessionary gloom. The global economic crisis has yet to hit a majority of Poles. Thrift stores here have become impromptu laboratories of the changing mores and attitudes in a country adjusting to newfound wealth. Young Poles here in the capital are now confident enough in their ability to buy new clothes that they at last have taken to wearing old ones. Those eking out a living on fixed incomes, especially retirees, still lack the means to do otherwise.And so the hip and the strapped meet at secondhand stores like Tomitex, on Nowowiejska Street in downtown Warsaw.

The pronounced stigma of buying used clothes in a poor country was once a powerful deterrent for shopping — or at least admitting to shopping — at secondhand stores, known here by the derogative colloquialism lumpex, which translates as something like bum export. That stigma has been replaced among the young by a playful attitude toward vintage clothing and bargain-hunting that would not be out of place among their contemporaries in London or New York. It is all part of the ferment of a capital rife with traffic jams as the new and used imported cars have outstripped the capacity of the roads to carry them all. One boutique for the latest new styles, aptly named Luxury & Liberty, has opened in the former headquarters of the governing Polish United Workers’ Party, which also previously housed the Warsaw Stock Exchange since the end of Communism. Poles, who under Communism had few choices for clothes, now have the entire spectrum, but the full breadth is only available to a few. The gulf between the haves and have-nots is wide, and the two sides are increasingly bumping against each other quite literally.

Foes warned off 'testing' Obama

The US Defense Secretary has warned opponents of the US against trying to "test" Barack Obama with a crisis in the early days of his presidency stating that "Anyone who thought that the upcoming months might present opportunities to test the new administration would be sorely mistaken." And "President Obama and his national security team, myself included, will be ready to defend the interests of the United States and our friends and allies from the moment he takes office on January 20th."

More dead in Sudan

Over 50 people were killed in tribal clashes in South Darfur on Friday. Combatants from the African Fallata trib attacked their rival Arab Habaniya tribe. Armed cattle rustlers, from the two tribes, wage regular against each other. Six policemen, including an officer, were among the killed people. They were attempting to stop the tribal conflict. Three of the attackers’ vehicles were destroyed.

Fears of New Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia

SARAJEVO, Bosnia and Herzegovina — Thirteen years after the United States brokered the Dayton peace agreement to end the ferocious ethnic war in the former Yugoslavia, fears are mounting that Bosnia, poor and divided, is again teetering toward crisis. On the surface, this haunted capital, its ancient mosques and Orthodox churches still pocked by mortar fire, appears to be enjoying a renaissance. Young professionals throng to stylish cafes and gleaming new shopping malls while the muezzin heralds the morning prayer. The ghosts of Srebrenica linger — recalling the worst massacre in Europe since World War II — but Sarajevans prefer to talk about President-elect Barack Obama or the global financial crisis.Yet for the first time in years, talk of the prospect of another war is creeping into conversations across the ethnic divide in Bosnia, a former Yugoslav republic that the Dayton agreement divided into two entities, a Muslim-Croat Federation and a Serbian Republic. The power-sharing agreement between former foes has always been tense. Now, however, the uneasy peace has been complicated by Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in February, which many here worry could prompt the Serbian Republic to follow suit, tipping the region into a conflict that could fast turn deadly.

“It’s time to pay attention to Bosnia again, if we don’t want things to get nasty very quickly,” Richard C. Holbrooke, the Clinton administration official who brokered the Dayton accord, and Paddy Ashdown, formerly the West’s top diplomat in Bosnia, warned recently in an open letter published in several newspapers. “By now, the entire world knows the price of that.”

Sketching a worst-case example, Srecko Latal, a Bosnia specialist at the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network in Sarajevo, warned that if the Serbian Republic declared independence, Croatia would respond by sending in troops, while the Bosnian Muslims would take up arms. If Banja Luka, the capital of the Serbian Republic, were to fall, he continued, Serbia would be provoked into entering the fray, leading to the prospect of a regional war.

For the country to progress, leaders on all sides say, the structure established by the Dayton accord must be overhauled. The country’s two entities have their own Parliaments, and there are 10 regional authorities, each with its own police force and education, health and judicial authorities. The result is a byzantine system of government directed by 160 ministers, a structure that absorbs 50 percent of Bosnia’s gross domestic product of $15 billion, according to the World Bank. While untangling that bureaucracy would be difficult, persuading the country’s leaders to put aside their fundamental differences might be harder.

Failed States, Cholera, and ‘Preventive Action’

One discussion centered on creating an international mechanism for humanitarian intervention when a malfunctioning nation’s leadership fails to address a building crisis like the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe, or when it consciously abuses its people by conducting or abetting mass killings. There was no clear path to establishing such a protocol, although those at the meeting appeared to agree that the United Nations Security Council, in its current form at least, would never be the vehicle given the veto power of states dead-set against anything resembling outside interference in internal affairs.

But when the world watches avoidable disasters unfolding in plain sight, what should be done? With global media and Web connectedness, everyone — to some extent — bears witness to starvation or genocide or the like. Awareness comes with responsibility.
Still, in the long history of nation states, and given human beings’ persistent tribal tendencies, when does an outside institution, however well intentioned, have the right to intervene in another country? Who decides which interventions are moral and “right,” and which are not justified? There is a fundamental tension with us, still, between the rights of individuals (or individual states) and of the larger community (or community of nations). This was at the heart of my recent post on the enduring dream of global-scale thinking and action, with extends from Darwin through Havel and on through Bill and Melinda Gates’ view that all lives have equal value.

How this plays out will certainly help determine how many bumps there are in the road toward 9 billion people seeking a decent life. At the meeting, former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright proposed an intermediate step through which rich countries could help speed the progress of poorer ones, creating new ways citizens can serve overseas to help foster freedom, economic development, and improve lives.

Indian navy 'captures 23 pirates'

A navy spokesman said the Indian navy had responded to a mayday call from MV Gibe, flying under the Ethiopian flag. and has arrested 23 Somali and Yemeni pirates who tried to storm a ship in the Gulf of Aden. As a precaution several countries have warships patrolling the gulf amid growing international concern about piracy. A cache of arms and equipment is reported to have been confiscated, including seven AK-47 assault rifles, three machine guns, and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher.

Last month, India's navy thought it had sunk a pirate "mother vessel" off Somalia but it later emerged that the vessel was actually a Thai fishing trawler that had been seized by pirates off Yemen.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said better intelligence was needed for a land attack on pirate bases to be considered, and also called for shipping companies to do more to protect their vessels travelling through the Arabian Sean and Indian Ocean, speaking at a security conference in Bahrain.

UK caused cholera, says Zimbabwe

An ally of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has said the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe which has left hundreds dead was caused by the UK. Even though on Thursday, Mr Mugabe said the spread of cholera had been halted, aid workers warned that the situation was worsening and the outbreak could last for months.

Report Spotlights Iraq Rebuilding Blunders

BAGHDAD — An unpublished 513-page federal history of the American-led reconstruction of Iraq depicts an effort crippled before the invasion by Pentagon planners who were hostile to the idea of rebuilding a foreign country, and then molded into a $100 billion failure by bureaucratic turf wars, spiraling violence and ignorance of the basic elements of Iraqi society and infrastructure.The history, the first official account of its kind, is circulating in draft form here and in Washington among a tight circle of technical reviewers, policy experts and senior officials. It also concludes that when the reconstruction began to lag — particularly in the critical area of rebuilding the Iraqi police and army — the Pentagon simply put out inflated measures of progress to cover up the failures. In one passage, for example, former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is quoted as saying that in the months after the 2003 invasion, the Defense Department “kept inventing numbers of Iraqi security forces — the number would jump 20,000 a week! ‘We now have 80,000, we now have 100,000, we now have 120,000.’ ”

Among the overarching conclusions of the history is that five years after embarking on its largest foreign reconstruction project since the Marshall Plan in Europe after World War II, the United States government has in place neither the policies and technical capacity nor the organizational structure that would be needed to undertake such a program on anything approaching this scale.The bitterest message of all for the reconstruction program may be the way the history ends. The hard figures on basic services and industrial production compiled for the report reveal that for all the money spent and promises made, the rebuilding effort never did much more than restore what was destroyed during the invasion and the convulsive looting that followed.

By mid-2008, the history says, $117 billion had been spent on the reconstruction of Iraq, including some $50 billion in United States taxpayer money.When the Office of Management and Budget balked at the American occupation authority’s abrupt request for about $20 billion in new reconstruction money in August 2003, a veteran Republican lobbyist working for the authority made a bluntly partisan appeal to Joshua B. Bolten, then the O.M.B. director and now the White House chief of staff. “To delay getting our funds would be a political disaster for the President,” wrote the lobbyist, Tom C. Korologos. “His election will hang for a large part on show of progress in Iraq and without the funding this year, progress will grind to a halt.” With administration backing, Congress allocated the money later that year. In an illustration of the hasty and haphazard planning, a civilian official at the United States Agency for International Development was at one point given four hours to determine how many miles of Iraqi roads would need to be reopened and repaired. The official searched through the agency’s reference library, and his estimate went directly into a master plan. Whatever the quality of the agency’s plan, it eventually began running what amounted to a parallel reconstruction effort in the provinces that had little relation with the rest of the American effort.

The United States could soon have reason to consult this cautionary tale of deception, waste and poor planning, as troop levels and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan are likely to be stepped up under the new administration. The incoming Obama administration’s rebuilding experts are expected to focus on smaller-scale projects and emphasize political and economic reform. Still, such programs do not address one of the history’s main contentions: that the reconstruction effort has failed because no single agency in the United States government has responsibility for the job.

Survey Asks: Internet Access or Sex?

Intel came up with a novel way to show how important the Internet and computing have become in the lives of Americans. In conjunction with Harris Interactive, the company conducted a survey of adults in the United States under the prosaic-enough banner “Internet Reliance in Today’s Economy.”

But the first “key finding” from the study is a little more attention-grabbing. According to the study, 46 percent of women and 30 percent of men would opt to forgo sex for two weeks instead of giving up access to their precious Internet for the same period.

More broadly, those surveyed said access to the Internet ranked highest among the discretionary spending items they could not live without. Cable television, dining out, shopping for clothes and gym memberships followed in declining importance.

White House removes protections for endangered species

With just over a month remaining in office, the Bush administration loosened federal protection of plant and animal species threatened with extinction.On Thursday, the Interior Department announced a change to Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, which required federal agencies to consult with scientists at the Fish and Wildlife Service or the National Marine Fisheries Service to determine whether a project is likely to affect any listed species.Under the new rule, federal agencies such as the Federal Highway Administration can in many cases simply check with their own personnel to determine if their activities will harm any of the 1,247 animal and 747plant species listed as endangered or threatened.So under the new rules, federal agencies that are undertaking a project need not check with Fish and Wildlife or National Marine Fisheries under these circumstances:

Where the action has no effect on a listed species or critical habitat, or
Where the action is wholly beneficial, or
Where the effects of the action can not be measured or detected in a manner that permits meaningful evaluation using the best available science, or
Where the effects of the action are the result of global processes and can not be reliably predicted or measured on the scale of species current range, or would result in an insignificant impact to a listed species, or are such that the potential risk of harm to a species is remote.

“The rule strengthens the regulations so the government can focus on protecting endangered species as it strives to rebuild the American economy,” said Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne.

White House assessing options to aid carmakers

The White House and congressional Democrats had agreed on a $14 billion measure that would have extended short-term financing to the industry and set up a "car czar" to make sure the money was used to turn the Big Three into competitive companies. The legislation, however, died when Senate Republicans demanded upfront pay and benefit concessions from the United Auto Workers that union officials rejected.

The failure on Capitol Hill prompted urgent requests for White House intervention. Administration officials were dispatched to weigh the pros and cons of a range of other bailout actions. White House and Treasury Department officials are keeping details of their discussions closely held for fear of affecting markets, but financial experts have zeroed in on a few likely avenues for helping the auto industry and its 3 million workers.

One way is to tap directly into the $700 billion financial rescue bailout fund to provide loans to the carmakers. Another is to use part of the bailout fund as a kind of collateral for emergency loans the automakers could get from the Federal Reserve. The administration also could do nothing, leaving open the possibility that one or more of the automakers could go bankrupt. It also could wait for the new Congress, flush with more Democratic votes when it returns in early January, to try again to get bailout legislation passed.

A second possibility offers Bush some political cover. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson could use part, but not all, of the $15 billion left of the first $350 billion allocated to the TARP to back up loans the automakers could get from the Fed's emergency lending program. That would leave some money to help troubled financial institutions, which Bush has long argued should be the first in line for TARP money.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said he's reluctant to use the Fed's emergency lending program for the automakers. Decisions about giving financial aid to Detroit are best left to Congress, he says.