In the three weeks since the government shutdown, access to economic data has been limited. Many releases, most notably the employment numbers, have been inactive since the BLS closed down. With the reduced number releases and reports, the FED is having more difficulties analyzing our labor market. Due to this, we have seen the reliance on other information sources like Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) and the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Services (ISM).
*Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate (September 2025), source: chicagofed.org
The trend in black shows the official unemployment rate published by the BLS since 2022. However, since the BLS has not released their most recent data, the current unemployment rate is up in the air. The Chicago FED has estimated the unemployment rate based on public and private information, which they announced as about 4.34%. While this might seem accurate, this is an estimation. Without the official numbers to verify the accuracy, we are left feeling much less certain.
With the information that we do have at our disposal, we can still derive projections and make somewhat educated forecasts and interpretations. These reports have recently suggested the labor market could be slowing down and that there is an overall decrease is hirings. With this being said, the reports also suggest that these trends are very gradual, and there is no evidence of any sharp decrease that would cause extra concern.
Overall, the country is in a tight spot in the labor data department because of this shutdown. We have to estimate our current figures based on private data, which in turn makes forecasts less accurate. Because of this, economic decisions are being made based on uncertain numbers. We are experiencing trying times and I have growing concern for how our economy will behave going forward if this trend continues.
Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/us-lack-of-labor-market-data-due-to-government-shutdown-investors-seek-alternative-indicators/
1 comment:
It’s interesting how much the shutdown affects more than just government workers, even our ability to understand the economy takes a hit. Relying on estimates instead of real data makes it hard for the Fed to make confident decisions. I agree the slowdown seems gradual, but it’s still worrying how uncertain everything feels without those official reports.
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