Vince Golle and Craig Stirling, Journalists at Bloomberg, Discuss US Job growth expectations, along with payroll expectations, and international trade effects in this article. Bloomberg analysts are expecting hiring to remain limited as Bloomberg is projecting 75,000 jobs added in the month of August, while unemployment to tick up to an almost four year high. If this ends up being the case this would mark the slowest payroll growth since the throes of the COVID pandemic in 2020. Since August of 2022, the US unemployment rate has consistently risen from 3.6% in August of 2022 to 4.3% currently, and Bloomberg analysts are expecting unemployment to continue to tick higher in August.
Trade tensions internationally were a theme of this article. Golle and Stirling demonstrated Trumps trade policy affects on other countries/regions. Canada saw its first GDP contraction in nearly two years this past fiscal quarter, showing the negative effects that Tariffs have on Canadas largest trading partner.
Economists predict steady growth in Australia, and muted growth in South Korea, both countries will report many various fiscal reports in the coming week. Japans trade exports have reached an all time low in the past 15 months with exports down to -2.6% for the month of June, a stark contrast to the 12% surge in February.
across the EMEA conditions are relatively stable. No important monetary policy changes are expected at the upcoming ECB meeting in September. Inflation remains steady, and near the ECB's target of 2%. A notable statistic will be the German Factory order draws which may add some key insight to US tariff effects on German and European manufacturing.
Article Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-30/tame-us-job-growth-expected-in-approach-to-fed-meeting?srnd=phx-economics-v2
3 comments:
I agree that if job growth slows and unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates to make borrowing cheaper and encourage businesses to hire more people. This would help the U.S. economy grow again. If the U.S. lowers rates, countries like Canada, Japan, and those in Europe could also lower theirs so their currencies don’t get too strong compared to the U.S. dollar. This could help keep trade balanced and avoid hurting their exports.
The connection between U.S. job growth and international trade stood out to me. It's striking that Canada is already experiencing a contraction in its GDP, tied to U.S. tariffs, while Japan's exports have dropped so sharply. It makes me think about how much domestic employment data is intertwined with global supply chains and trade policy; slower U.S. hiring doesn't just affect workers here, but has ripple effects across multiple economies.
It seems somewhat hypocritical to increase trade barriers while also wanting to increase job growth, where it is hurting to companies to increase trade barriers so therefore they are unable to hire workers without cutting into their profits or having a job for said workers to do. Even though the scope is mostly within the USA, it is interesting to see how these trade barriers are having adverse affects within the world's economic powers, where they may seek different trading partners than the US.
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