$600 Stimulus Checks Increased Savings

 According to "anonymized bank data" the recent $600 weekly unemployment benefit the government handed out was very beneficial to American saving. Moreover, it helped pay workers more than enough to make up for lost wages and enabled spending during unusual times. Not only that, but workers were starting to save more as well. However, when the weekly money stopped the same workers had to blow through the savings in just under four months. The reasoning is that households have to make a choice between stopping everyday purchases or stop paying mortgages and student loans. This is causing a dilemma and a terrible choice for "the macro economy. My question would be do you think that the governments unusual generosity should have been enough or do you believe that the government needs to lend out more money? Furthermore, should the lent money be equal across all jobs or should your usual wage depict the amount of money you should receive?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/upshot/stimulus-checks-unemployment.html

India Turns to Economic Overhaul as Growth Prospects Slide Amid Coronavirus

The unfortunate coronavirus pandemic caused India to endure an economic crisis. In fact, out of all of the world’s largest economies, India’s economic decline hit the hardest. Since numerous city jobs vanished amid the coronavirus pandemic, farming jobs are more important than ever. Thus India began to rely on it’s agricultural economy. However, the agricultural economy is under numerous regulations. The government worked to alter these restrictions. Suddenly, farmers were allowed to sell a majority of their produce to consumers instead of wholesale markets (what they were required to do in the past). Many of these wholesale markets have closed as a result. This led to protests from both farmers and wholesale market workers who now struggled even more to make money. In the long run this will benefit farmers by capturing at least some of the profits that have traditionally gone to those buying and reselling their crops, the question is can the farmers withstand this change long enough to receive profits.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-turns-to-economic-overhaul-as-growth-prospects-slide-amid-coronavirus-11602586802

The deflated CARES Act leaves more in poverty than before pandemic

 According to the New York Times, since the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES, has run out of money, more then 8 million Americans have fallen into poverty. Two new studies conducted by Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy, the other by researchers at Universities of Chicago and Notre Dame, found that since federal aid has dried up, poverty rates have risen to higher levels than before the pandemic. Moreover, the latter study found that poverty rates have affected black families disproportionally. 

Although it was expected that the CARES act wasn't going to last forever, economic recovery has been too slow to make up for these loses. In May, this aid package help keep up to 18 million Americans out of poverty. But, ever since the package has expired the poverty rate has risen to a higher level than it was before the pandemic. Furthermore, something to take into account is that the number of people suffering from poverty may actually be higher then stated. The two main concerns being raised is that families may have been miscounted or just left out. Those who are being excluded from the data consist of immigrants and low-income minorities. The issue with this is that census data directs over $1.5 trillion in federal funding to state and local governments, and that these funds will go to areas which are over-counted, not under-counted, leaving those struggling most out to dry. 

Do you believe that the data on how many people have fallen into poverty is being skewed to make political parties look better with the upcoming election? Or more because of poor data collection from immigrants and low-income areas?

https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/depleted-cares-act-leaves-more-in-poverty-than-before-pandemic

How the U.S. election could affect Europe’s markets, economy and trade

The article talks about how the upcoming U.S. election matters not only for the American people and the country’s economy but will also have a significant impact across the Atlantic. Europe’s financial markets and economic prospects will be affected by whoever is in the White House after the vote. 

It is possible that the losing side may take it to streets and the matter may have to be resolved by the Supreme Court in the end and this could temporarily hit markets and consumer confidence in United States and beyond. Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, said that the markets are underestimating the possibility of a contested election and can disrupt the markets if they don't prepare for it.

“Another issue at stake is trade. If Trump is re-elected there are fears he could start a trade war with Europe, as he has previously threatened to do, claiming last year that Europe has in many ways treated the U.S. worse than China. A trade war would be damaging to both the European and U.S. economies, though the EU stands to lose more if tariffs are imposed on its exports to the States.

A victory for Biden could bring with it another challenge for Europe. According to the article, a “blue wave” Democratic sweep could “potentially pave the way for major tax hikes in the U.S. and excessive labor market regulations that may curtail U.S. trend growth and affect export-oriented Europe.” Biden as president may undo Trump tax cuts, add further tax increases and pursue an expansionary spending and social policy. In contrast, a Biden victory may also mean that the outlook for equity markets outside the U.S. will be positive.

Do you think the U.S. economy will do better under a Trump or Biden administration?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/how-the-us-election-could-affect-europes-markets-economy-and-trade.html

One Step Closer to Agreeing on Relief

     As the debate in Congress continues over additional coronavirus relief, both sides just got one step closer to a compromise. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has told Democrats that the administration is willing to agree to terms on a national testing strategy, just part of the whole relief bill. Although it is still uncertain whether Senate Republicans will come to terms with many of the Democrats demands, this is a small step in the right direction. With jobless claims continuing to rise, Americans across the country are in desperate need of assistance. Small businesses are swamped with expenses, and not enough income to keep them afloat. It will be interesting to see whether Trump and the Republicans really wait until after the election to get relief, or if negotiations will be done before. Additionally, now that the Republicans have conceded on a smaller part of the bill, will the Democrats do the same? Now is not the time to begrudgingly plant oneself on one side of the aisle. Politicians need to come together and do what is needed most in such a desperate time.

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-agrees-to-national-coronavirus-testing-strategy-11602767703

Surging Euro Presents E.C.B. With a Dilemma

“A rising currency is eroding the competitiveness of European exporters. Central bankers are starting to worry.” The pandemic led to European policymakers increasing government stimulus and monetary policy. They also put up strong travel restrictions and mass gathering restrictions. The measures the policymakers took caused and are continuing to cause unwanted side effects. “The euro has risen 10 percent against the dollar since March, a vote of confidence by investors that also creates big problems for European exporters.” Sales have already been impacted by the virus, but this rise hurts the exporters because now the products are more expensive for customers paying with other currencies. Also, there is a risk of deflation because of the strong euro with imported goods becoming cheaper for European consumers. The Governing council is monitoring the euro exchange rate, but the European Central Bank isn’t too concerned yet. The dilemma that policymakers face is that “any overt action to weaken the currency might be interpreted as a violation of a de facto nonaggression pact among the world’s largest economic powers.” There is an agreement to not manipulate currency rates which could help one economy, but at the same time hurt others.

Ewing, Jack. “Surging Euro Presents E.C.B. With a Dilemma.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 10 Sept. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/business/ecb-euro.html. 

Fed warns that delayed stimulus will have consequences

 Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari has issued a warning stating that if the next round of stimulus for the United States economy is not approved there will be "enormous consequences". This comes on the brink of the election as President Trump has decided to shut down talks regarding the stimulus until after the election. Not supplying the American economy with stimulus will result in a more intensified downturn as workers, businesses, and governments need more cash immediately. There will be ripples that are felt through the economy once individuals cannot afford to pay their bills. The Federal Reserve has been continuously warning congress of the impact that the lack of stimulus could have. Kashkari stressed that whatever assistance is needed to anyone affected by the pandemic is important and should be delivered. The most interesting point that was stressed by Kashkari is that providing public funds to help the private sector presents no "moral hazard" as the down turn was not caused by systemic failure but by the pandemic. In conclusion, with millions of people affected by the pandemic the incorrect way of dealing with this situation is to let the people deal with it on their own. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/07/feds-kashkari-warns-delaying-stimulus-will-have-enormous-consequences-.html

Congress Pursue Second Round of $1,200 Stimulus Checks

    In a statement on October 6th President Trump said he plans to pass a “major stimulus bill” if he is re-elected on Nov. 3. because according to him Democrats were “not negotiating in good faith.”A statement which he later reiterated in a Twitter post by saying that he would agree to sign a bill by congress of $1,200 stimulus checks. 

People have had divergent opinions on the passing of these coronavirus relief checks, some suggesting that it did not boost the economy while others argued that it was simply the government's role to provide aid to its citizens as they struggle in the midst of an "economic downturn". As of right now, leaders in congress and house officials are discussing the bill, which will eventually pass in the coming weeks to relief millions of Americans as well as some small businesses. But it is not sure yet given how divided the parties are over this matter. 

What kind of impact do you think Trump's statement could have on the passing of the bill? The article stated: "Academic studies show stimulus payments targeted toward lower-income and unemployed people would be more effective at encouraging spending." Do you then think it is necessary for a second round to checks to be pursued given this expected positive outcome? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/09/covid-second-stimulus-checks/

Cinemas Shutdown

With coronavirus cases rising in the country, major movie theater chains are closing their doors. Albeit, temporarily. In part, this is to help curb the spread, but the major reason being, film studios are pushing back their films and postponing it to further dates. If there are movies to show in the theatres, they might as well be closed. 

Cineworld announced it'll be closing it's 663 theatres in both the USA and in the UK as well. Universal has announced the postponing of their new James Bond film "No Time To Die" to next year. The decision by Cineworld to close these theatres is going to see about 45,000 employees in the USA and in the UK affected. 

Another studio which is also postponing a film is Warner Bros. They too are postponing their new, remade film "Dune" to October 1, 2021. This is almost a year away from it's intended release in December 2020. 

John Fithian expressed his concerns saying "If the studios continue postponing all their releases, the movie theaters aren’t going to be there for those postponed releases." He further went on to say in the interview, "They have to consider whether they want the long-term viability of the theater platform to be available to them. And I think they do since about 80 percent of the movies that were scheduled during our closed period have been postponed for future theatrical release and not taken to the home."

Other big films set to release this year like, “Wonder Woman 1984,” from Warner Bros. has already delayed its release from October to Christmas Day. “Soul,” the latest from Disney’s Pixar animation studio, is scheduled for a Nov. 20 release. These movies however may also be postponed to next seeing as they will almost certainly do poorly in the box office as many people will be staying home and avoiding cinemas in a bid to not catch the coronavirus. 

Lobbying efforts to save the movie theater business have been fierce. They called on lawmakers to help the industry with an additional loan and grant programs that could help sustain the theaters until the pandemic subsides. If this aid does not come, they estimate about 69% of the small and midsize movie theatres in the country would file for bankruptcy. “If one of two things doesn’t happen, either Congress gives us substantial support quickly or New York gets open and the movies come back and the patrons come back, most of our companies are going to go under,” Mr. Fithian said.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/business/media/regal-theater-shutdown.html

While Millions Lost Jobs, Some Executives Made Millions in Company Stock

 While Millions Lost Jobs, Some Executives Made Millions in Company Stock

During the pandemic, many companies rewarded their senior executives with stock options, which provides the owner the right to acquire company stock at a later date but at the same price the day it was offered, or a restricted share, which is a stock that executives cannot sell for months or years. This has allowed many superrich and corporate executives to gain exorbitant amounts of profits. However, most Americans own little to no stock which is just "a reminder that income and wealth in the U.S. economy are tilted heavily toward a tiny number of top earners who own significant amounts of stock." According to Brandon Rees, "the stock market is not an indicator of the health of the economy for working people; it’s an indicator of economic inequality," and "these C.E.O. payments reflect that reality."

For decades, corporate boards try to incentivize executive managers with company stock as pay to make them more accountable for shareholders, yet executive managers still end up doing better than what might be justified by a company's business performance. Debra DeShong, an MGM representative, justified MGM Resorts International chief executive, William J. Hornbuckle's, significant gain through restricted stock units by stating "Mr. Hornbuckle . . . volunteered to help the company conserve cash by exchanging all . . . of [his] cash compensation for the remainder of 2020 [worth $700,000] for restricted stock units that vest at the end of the year," and "by doing so, they took on great risk, risk that still exists in that we are not operating under normal circumstances and we are still in a period of recovery." All of Mr. Hornbuckle's 2020 awards have now appreciated to a combined $4 million. Furthermore, Edward W. Stack, the chief executive of Dick’s Sporting Goods, "received 355 percent more stock options for his 2020 award than for his 2019 grant and 142 percent more restricted shares" in March when the stock market was close to its low point. When his 2020 awards were issued, they "were worth about $7 million . . . and are now valued at a combined $67.4 million." In Dick's last fiscal year before the pandemic hit, "[Mr. Stack's] compensation was 1,487 times the pay of the company’s median employee" which raises many concerns from employees and shareholders.

Is it fair to provide company executives many stock rewards, even during a pandemic, when they seem to make an exuberant amount comparatively to majority of other employees and Americans in the long-run? What do you think can be done to prevent such extreme income inequality?

Geneva Passes $25 Minimum Wage

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/03/world/geneva-switzerland-minimum-wage-trnd/index.html

Geneva, Switzerland citizens voted to increase their minimum wage to equivalent of $25 USD. This is believed to be the highest set minimum wage in the world. A minimum wage this high is very foreign to Americans who are used to the highest minimum wage being ~$15 and the federal minimum wage being south of $8. One interesting note from the article is that Switzerland does not have a federal minimum wage, but the need for a minimum wage is being taken on by their equivalent of states. 

There is a good deal of speculation that the COVID-19 pandemic helped to push this vote to pass. This makes sense because of the amount of essential workers that needed to continue to work throughout the pandemic and there could be an increased appreciation for these workers.

Do you think that it is feasible that we could see a minimum wage this high in the U.S. in the near future? Do you think that it would result in inflation and/or an increase in unemployment? What other factors should be taken into consideration when making a decision like this? 

Bidenomics

 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/03/bidenomics-the-good-the-bad-and-the-unknown

After the recent presidential debate, many have wondered about Biden’s economic stances and policies. As Trump tried to paint Biden as someone without knowledge in economics, this article highlights many of the policies Biden has advocated for during his campaign. One of the most important aspects of ‘Bidenomics’ is Biden’s rejection of some of the more extreme liberal policies supported by fellow Democrats, such as Medicare For All and publicly-provided, guaranteed jobs. In fact, Biden’s plan for public spending accounts for only a 3% annual increase in GDP. Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders advocated public spending increases on the order of 16-23%. Still, Biden proposes that the spending he is suggesting would be financed by taxes, a higher proportion of which would be paid by large firms and the wealthy. Other parts of the ‘Bidenomics’ initiative include bailouts for small businesses, by offering them grants and loans: a service Biden believes Trump has largely overlooked in the midst of Covid-19. Additionally, by improving relations with China, Biden hopes a better international rapport would allow for an international distribution of a Covid vaccine. Much of Biden’s proposed public spending would be harnessed to improve middle-class living standards, through spending on education, health care, and, most notably, a $15 federal minimum wage.

Despite Trump’s depiction of Biden’s economic policies, Biden is far from a socialist. In fact, many Democrats worry about his policies not being liberal enough. It is understandable, however, that Biden wants to present himself as a moderate, logical alternative to a polarizing figure like Trump. Unfortunately, if elected, this presentation will likely come at the cost of real social and, perhaps, economic progress. Biden has to find a way to balance a careful strategy to get into office, while still seeking to affect change. It is very possible that Biden will wait to assert himself, and his economic policies, until potentially becoming president.

The pandemic depression maybe over, but the pandemic recession has just begun.

 The author talks about how the economic recovery process is a long and slow procedure that holds the economy at risk for the unknown future. He emphasizes the job crisis issue that penetrates deeply into the economy and relates it to the fact that the pandemic squeezed years of change into a few months. The article argues why pandemic job losses are worse compared to past recessions. Similarly, it highlights that big business such as Shell, Disney is laying off thousands of workers, white-collar jobs have dropped by 3.9 worse compared to the 2008 recession and a similar pattern is obvious across other industries. The author suggests that the mechanical effect of shutdowns is causing these high levels of unemployment. He says that a vaccine is not the only cure the economy needs and it will not take us to the pre-pandemic level. As many jobs will no longer exist and massive readjustments will be needed in the labor market that will certainly take a lot of time. Furthermore, it talks about how different sectors like printing services, automobile dealerships, truck transportations, and real estate are adjusting to the new normal. For some industries, it has been easy and profiting and for some, it’s been getting worse.    

Considering the structural readjustment, technological advancements and other factors that affect the labor market and employment will it be more easier or difficult to get a job in the future? Comparing low-income to high-income jobs. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/upshot/pandemic-economy-recession.html

Covid-19 Vaccine Deployment Would Give Global Economy a Lift

 The health officials believe that at least one of the vaccines in the later stages of testing will become available and usable. They believe that by the end of this year at least one vaccine would be used or given to a small number of people who are more vulnerable to the virus. With more and more companies working to have the vaccine available, is not a problem, the problem is uneven access to it. IMF also warned about this issue of uneven access to vaccines, as this will hold back the global economic recovery, and indeed slow it down even for those countries with access to successful vaccines. Similarly, the economic boost will also depend on people and their willingness to be vaccinated, as if we look at rich countries, their skepticism about vaccines and their side effects has grown. I believe these concerns will be a problem.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-deployment-would-give-global-economy-a-lift-next-year-11601820001

China is demolishing villages and forcing people into bigger ones

For the last 30 years, Chinese farmers have moved to cities to work. Although this has been great for Chinese cities, villages have become hollowed out and are mostly comprised of the elderly and children. Houses are empty and many rural schools have closed forcing kids to walk miles to attend state run boarding schools. To combat this, many Chinese provinces have begun to knock down Chinese villages and build new, bigger ones, to accomadate these residents. However, experiments with what is being called "village consolidation" has been shown to be flawed. Those who order it are often motivated by greed and political advancement, and not for the well-being of its citizens. Local governments have an incentive to destroy rural villages as it would allow them to create more arable land that they can sell greenfield sites near cities to developers without reducing farmland. Although this promotes economic growth, powerless villagers become victims and millions of people have been turfed from their homes. 

What are your thoughts on this? Should the government have a right to do this, or do people have a right to live where they want too?

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/03/china-is-demolishing-villages-and-forcing-people-into-bigger-ones

Jobs Report September 2020

 The economic recovery of the U.S. is slowing down and we can tell this from the September numbers published in the jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a lower than expected 661,000 in September and the unemployment rate was 7.9%, the Labor Department said Friday in the final jobs report before the November election. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a payrolls gain of 800,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 8.2% from 8.4% in August. The payrolls miss was due largely to a drop in government hiring as at-home schooling continued and Census jobs fell. I wonder, with these disappointing reports and President Trump testing positive for Coronavirus if stocks will keep heading down. Also, will the number of jobs available keep decreasing if there is another spike? What will Trump do to create more jobs in the next month?

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/02/jobs-report-september-2020.html?__twitter_impression=true

New LAYOFF add WORRIES over U.S. Economic Slowdown.

Many companies are planning to fire their employees because of the Pandemic. Disney, Allstate, and two other major airlines are planning to fire about 60,000 workers recently because there is no Federal aid package to be stimulating in the economy. In early spring, about 22 million jobs had people out of jobs, but in May and June, the economy rebounded with stimulus money and really low-interest rates. In another report, it is seen that 787,000 people filled for jobless benefits last week, which is lower than the previous weeks. 

United Airlines and American Airlines gave about 30,000 furloughs after Thursday because Congress could not come with Fresh Aid for the industry. Allstate said that they were going to layoff 3,800 employees so that they could reduce costs. That 3,800 is 8% of the total employees that they had by the end of 2019. Disney said that they were planning the eliminate up to 28,000 jobs as the theme parks in Florida and California. At first, the workers had been on furlough, but after Disney saw the uncertainty of COVID, they decided to remove jobs for the time being. Even though some areas in the entertainment and food industry have opened, hotels are really lagging behind.  

Next year, it is sure for us to get the vaccines. Since there have been many jobs eliminated, do you think when we graduate, it will be easier for us to get jobs because there will be jobs available?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/business/economy/layoffs-unemployment-claims.html

Why Did Hundreds of Thousands of Women Drop Out of the Workforce?

 

Job numbers from September show that the recession influenced by COVID'19 has resulted in many women's sidelining, and the number is massive. Even though unemployment is dropping, it is also due to many people leaving the job market anyways. About one million people over twenty dropped out of the job market, and the majority were women. This is partly due to the collapse of industries dominated by women, such as "entertainment." Experts say that the earnings gap between gender is a huge issue and is affecting this situation. Women are being effected by unpaid labor and opting to either move to part-time positions or completely drop out of the labor force. The opening of schools has also effected their participation as they contemplate taking care of children. The majority of these individuals are not the highest-earning person in the family, especially their partners, and hence decide to sacrifice earnings. The better-earning partner goes back to work, and data suggests this is the majority of the time men. As the income gap increases between spouses, the person with less income usually has a smaller labor supply. This will cause problems when women try to re-enter the labor force and effect their genders standing in the labor force. After recessions, people tend to have less income, and the wage gap increases. Eventually, whatever the reason that drove women out of the workforce will affect them badly as returning will be much harder and takes a lot of time. The question is, how much of the slowly gained ground has been lost, and what does this mean for women's position in the workforce?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/us/jobs-women-dropping-out-workforce-wage-gap-gender.html?searchResultPosition=5

Trump Tests Positive

 On October 1st, it became public that Donald Tump had tested positive for COVID-19. These tests results sent an immediate shock on the stock market and the financial sector. The S&P 500 went down 96 bps and the Dow Jones declined by 48 bps. This was most likely due to the uncertainty of his condition. Historically, a nation's leader can impact the stock market by words, actions, or falling ill. What do you think the long-lasting impacts will be if Trump has permanent ailments or even succumbs to this virus like 209 thousand other Americans? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/business/trump-covid-stock-market.html

Stimulus Round 2

 Donald Trump voiced his support Saturday about the passage of a second stimulus package. The Republican party has been vocal about not being for the second round of stimulus. Currently both Democrats and Republicans are in favor of giving monetary payments to households, small businesses loans and bailing out the airline industry. The main argument remaining is whether the subsidies for households should be $600 or $400 weekly and for how long. A large reason for the Republican push is President Trump's recent COVID diagnosis. His stance on the virus as been very defensive so far, so it will be interesting how the onset of this diagnosis will change his views on American's needs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/03/coronavirus-stimulus-update-trump-urges-congress-to-pass-relief-bill.html 

'Massively concerning’ jobs report sends a signal that the economic recovery could be fading

 The job reports in September fell short of Wall Street expectation, which raised concerns about the economic recovery from COVID. In September there was an increase of 661,000 non-farm payrolls. While in normal times this would have been considered to be very good it did not meet Wall Streets expectation of 800,000. Along with this unemployment rates fell to 7.9%, however, a large part of this was due to people leaving the labor force. Nick Bunker, an economic research director at Indeed, says "This report is an illusion of progress at a time when we needed accelerating gains in the labor market."

International Trade Shows Signs of Recovery

 https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2020/international-trade-shows-signs-recovery/

After initial claims that international trade may be permanently scarred from the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a solid comeback. Data is showing that we are recovering much faster from this economic downturn than that of 2008. It also shows that the international trade has not fully recovered, but we are on pace to recover substantially faster than in past recessions. This data comes from many of the major economies such as China and the UK. Although, these countries do not encompass the entire international economy, they are good indicators for how we are doing as a whole. 

Why do you think we have been able to recover at a substantially faster pace from this recession/pandemic than those others in the past?

UK economy nears 'perilous turning point' on Covid-19

COVID cases are rapidly increasing in the UK as a second wave hits the country. The country has implemented more heavy restrictions. “The government’s chief scientific and medical advisers have warned that new daily cases of Covid-19 could accelerate to 50,000 by mid-October, with 200 deaths a day by the following month. In the UK as of 29 September, 446,156 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed and 42,072 deaths.” Along with the more heavy restrictions and uncertainties, the stock markets have taken a hit as seen with other markets around the world. The restrictions could significantly hurt the UK’s economic recovery. The government’s budget deficit will continue to widen as they are trying to support businesses, workers, and households. The government had an “eat out to help out” scheme which some experts are saying has led to the rapid increase in cases, although it did reduce inflation. “The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 0.2% from 1% a month earlier.” The experts are saying that was the result of pent-up demand, but the economy was losing momentum even before more restrictions were being speculated.

Partington, Richard. “UK Economy Nears 'Perilous Turning Point' on Covid-19.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 29 Sept. 2020, www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/29/uk-economy-nears-perilous-turning-point-on-covid-19. 

Record low GDP decrease in Q2

 The United States posted a 31.4% decrease in GDP for the second quarter, the largest decrease in our history and surpassed the original holder by 10% in 1958. Now, this is to be expected considering the country was almost entirely locked down for much of the second quarter. Businesses are still not completely open and I am sure will be less than average for the next quarter. Despite that, the next quarter is expected to have a big rebound. I feel a little hesitant to jump on board and believe a record breaking projected increase next quarter considering businesses are still half of what they were. This tied in with political uncertainty such as the election puts me on edge. My question is, do you believe we will see this record increase, or could we be missing something such as a potential second lockdown? How much of an impact will the winner of the election have on this potential increase?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/us-gdp-q2-2020.html

State Tax Revenues Hit Hard by COVID-19

     In the past for months some states have seen growth in taxes and a majority has seen decrease in tax revenue. Overall in the past four months, states have seen a decrease in state tax revenue by 7.5 percent. This is thanks to the impact of the pandemic disrupting so much economic activity. Seven states actually reported growth such as Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont. Another data showed that  half of the states saw a decrease in impersonal income tax revenue. 10 states reported growth in this department. This trend of some states seeing increases and decreases can be attributed to the actions that the states policies and federal policy has had on each state with some having better process and behavior then others. This leads to them seeing growth instead of loss. With the nation seeing more and more unemployment benefits expiring and a second round of stimulus on its way, some states will need to manage their spreading thanks to a decrease in tax revenue. Hopefully another round of stimulus checks can help the states combat the increased spending they have to do.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2020-09-17/coronavirus-slams-state-tax-revenues-and-more-pain-is-on-the-way

Age of Electric Cars

 Electric vehicles have long been touted as the replacement for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This is as a result of electric vehicles’ ability to be almost 100%  efficient when converting energy from batteries to power to the wheels. ICE vehicles on the other hand are only between 20- 40% efficient. 

Presently though, electric vehicles are thousands of dollars more expensive than ICE vehicles. It is only with grants and subsidies from governments that help to bridge the price gap and incentivize buyers. These subsidies also help companies to push more electric vehicles into the market, hence making way for more innovations to bring down the prices of electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles are more expensive presently mostly because of the cost of the batteries. Companies are trying harder to make more energy-dense batteries so they can bring down the prices of these cars. Tesla is leading the way in battery technology and seeks to bring down its vehicle prices as low as $25,000. This would be groundbreaking and could push more people to buy electric vehicles. 

It isn't just about the batteries only. The whole technology involved in electric vehicles is what would pull more buyers. From semi-autonomous cars to almost full self-driving cars and a myriad of safety features, can draw families to these types of vehicles.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/business/electric-cars-batteries-tesla-elon-musk.html

Pandemic Imperils Promotions for Women in Academia

 Pandemic Imperils Promotions for Women in Academia

This pandemic has been extremely brutal for working mothers, especially those with jobs with little to no leverage. Experts are saying that it is even worse for mothers who are in "up-or-out" fields where workers face a single high-stakes promotion decision (i.e. tenure in academia). The pandemic has led to months or more of productivity lost due to additional child care responsibilities which falls more heavily on women. This can reverberate throughout their careers. This has been especially evident on some college campuses which tend to exhibit more more activism than other "up-or-out" workplaces.

At Northwestern, hundreds of female faculty members have been pushing the university to reduce the disruption of the pandemic but with little success since "[t]he present is unsustainable" according to Susan Pearson, a tenured Northwestern history professor. She states that, "parenthood was too often seen in academic settings 'as a personal choice' rather than as a societal obligation — 'like if you choose to live two hours away from work and you have a long commute, the university shouldn’t have to do anything about it.'"

Northwestern, like other universities, responded to the pandemic initially by pausing tenure decisions for junior faculty to give them an extra year to publish academic work to aid with earning the promotion. However, according to research, it is deemed an imperfect policy. According to a study, "men were substantially more likely to receive tenure at their first job after the university allowed an extension for new parents of either sex, while women were substantially less likely to receive tenure than they were before the policy change." An economist at the University of California, Davis and co-author of the paper, Jenna Stearns, states that the reason behind this finding is that men spend more of their time on research while women are spending more of their time managing more of their parental obligations. There is evidence that the pandemic is producing a similar effect, skewing more male with gender divides.

For example, Dr. Marion Suiseeya is currently writing a book that is critical to her tenure prospects. She estimates that she was two months away from completing the manuscript in March and was working about three or four hours a day on it. However, after the pandemic hit, she believes the book will now take her four months or more to complete due to only getting no more than two non-productive hours a day to work on it. Her daughter thinks she is working more than usual, but she's actually working quite a bit less. Delaying her book would just continue the stress it has put on her family, so she is trying to finish it by the original deadline although she is unsure it will be ready. She would like to have "additional child care subsidies and a more nuanced evaluation process with less weight on whether her book has been published" rather than an extension. Hopefully, a solution can be found to help these women keep their careers while helping with the additional stressful childcare.

Food Industry Prepares for the Worst This Winter

 With many experts forecasting another spike of the coronavirus this winter, many grocery giants and food companies are beginning their stockpiling now. This past spring when the world initially lockdowned, food and sanitation supplies saw unexpected and unprepared for shortages. This time around though the companies do not plan to get caught off guard. Companies are amassing extreme inventory numbers in their warehouses so that when people hunker down this winter, they will not run out of vital food and sanitation products. Many executives, however, do not believe the demand will be as high this winter as it was in March, citing that mass panic led to panic buying. 

The biggest issue many of these food and retail companies face is the possibility of their supply chain workers getting infected. This issue devastated the meat industry earlier in the year as large factories were shut down due to infections. Their hope is with extra inventory and preparation, they can weather the storm once again. Due to the virus and this fear of coming up short in goods, many companies are planning to move from in-time inventory management that has dominated the industry for decades. Instead, it is more favorable for them to be overprepared, especially in the time of crisis. I wonder if this change in inventory build-up will stick with the industry for years to come, or if it is simply a temporary solution to a (hopefully) temporary problem.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/grocers-stockpile-build-pandemic-pallets-ahead-of-winter-11601199000?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3

What the Nomination of The Ninth Supreme Court Justice Could Mean for Businesses

   With the passing of supreme court justice and women's rights leader Ruth Bader Ginsburg (notorious RBG), one of the nine supreme court seats is up for grabs. This means a lot given the approaching presidential election in November which could determine so many things politically, socially and economically.  Also, this opened vacancy (if filled by President Trump's conservative nominee Amy Coney Barrett) has the potential of upsetting the partisan balance of power in the court by turning it into a conservative supermajority of 6 out of 9 justices if passed by Senate Republicans. Before her passing, RBG expressed her last wish: "my most fervent wish is that I not be replaced until a new president is installed". Justice Ginsburg had inquired for her successor not to be picked until a new president is elected.  

With President Trump securing the confirmation of his pick for the Supreme Court this past Saturday (September 26), "the institution would become a font of business-friendly decisions for years to come, many corporate and public interest lawyers alike say." Conservatives tend to hold views that are inclined towards de-regulation, a small government (very little to no involvement), lowering of taxes and free market capitalism. Those views would obviously be reflected in court decisions giving space to a dynamic that would most likely 'promote' corporatism, and side with businesses and their interests. This raise a lot of concerns and questions, especially when it comes to business ethics and economic equality/equity. So far, these are assumptions and statements, only the future decisions of political elites will confirm what the prospect for businesses is looking like. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/24/finance-202-big-business-eyes-more-wins-with-padded-conservative-majority-supreme-court/

As virus rages, US economy struggles to sustain a recovery

As the economy recovers from the pandemic, home sales are booming, stocks are setting record highs yet the US economy is nowhere close to what it was pre-pandemic with high unemployment, low consumer confidence and less consumer spending. The virus outbreak is still raging and the Congress is deadlocked over providing more relief to the US citizens. 
According to the article, roughly 1 million new Americans are applying for unemployment benefits every week. Economists say that as many businesses have reopened and consumers have begun shopping and spending more, the picture is beginning to brighten, if only fitfully. Most say the economy is growing again. Yet scars are sure to remain from the catastrophic April-June quarter, when, according to the government, the economy collapsed at a 31.7% annual rate.
Some industries, notably those involving travel and hotels and restaurants, could struggle for years. And while the number of confirmed viral infections has been declining, the threat of a major resurgence remains, especially as students increasingly return to schools and colleges.
In a survey released last week by the National Association for Business Economics, two-thirds of the economists said that they thought the U.S. economy remains in recession. Nearly half said they didn’t expect it to return to pre-pandemic levels until mid-2022. Eighty percent put the likelihood that any recovery will give way to a “double-dip” recession at 25% or more.
Do you think we are still recession or recovering out of it? How long will it take for the US economy to recover?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/virus-rages-us-economy-struggles-sustain-recovery-n1238693

Lower jobless claims but still a slow economy

The overall trend is that first time claims for unemployment insurance had beaten the estimates calculated by Wall Street. From the week ending on Sept. 12 filings were 860,000 which beats the estimate of 8750,000 which was calculated by economists who surveyed the Dow Jones. Compared to earlier weeks calculations this is lower than the actual number of 893,000. The downshift in claims had a minimal impact on the markets as Wall Street opened at a slightly lower margin. The current biggest threat to the claims is the expected resurgence in COVID cases that would stall or even worse reverse the gains that have been seen in the economy recently. Adding on to the decline in first time claims, there has also been a decline continuing claims as they have fallen 916,000 to total of 12.63 million. Lastly the end of government assistance for unemployed workers could increase the problem in job market, the pace of claims though is continuing to fall which is a good indicator. The overall analysis is that the economy is still slow or stagnate in specific sectors but there are some bright spots that are emerging out of the woodwork. This being one of them, seeing a dip in first time claims is indicative that some Americans are getting back to work and do not need unemployment benefits no longer. The bigger question becomes will this trend be a consistent one moving forward, or will it spike again as feared?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/weekly-jobless-claims.html

Tik-Tok Purchase and Trump's Education Reform

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-20/trump-wants-5-billion-from-tiktok-deal-for-new-history-project

News regarding the purchase of Tik-Tok, a Chinese-based social media app, continues to intrigue. Recently, Trump announced that he approved the purchase of this app — from ByteDance Ltd. — by American corporations Oracle and Walmart. According to Trump, part of this agreement entails a contribution of $5 billion by these companies to an education fund aimed at educating American children on “the real history of our country” (Jacobs et al., 2020, para. 1). At a recent speech, Trump expressed disdain about an education platform called the 1619 Project, aimed at beginning the teaching of American history from when the first slaves were brought to America. Trump disavowed the 1619 Project, stating that an ideal education platform would teach children to love our country, history, and flag.

Trump’s desire to restructure the nature of American education calls into question values regarding the government’s role in public education. Ironically, as a Republican running on a laissez-faire platform (of limited government involvement) Trump's desired changes seem to evoke a controlling government, not characteristic of a market economy. As a politician who has vehemently opposed socialism, legislation enforcing a more ‘American’ form of education seems to impede on the public student’s right to, what many would believe is, a more objectively factual portrayal of American history — one that begins with the emergence of American slavery. 

As School Begins, Mothers Working Retail Jobs Feel Extra Burden

With schools open now, mothers and parents feel the burden of working jobs/retail jobs as their children taking part in remote learning require a lot of attention. It is not easy for children to understand how the internet works and how to get into their remote classes, so parents have to choose between that and their job hours, making it a serious dilemma. Looking at some examples, Mrs. Reveles (49) is a single mother and relied on her mother to help and assist with some of her (Ms. Reveles) daughter's needs. Her daughter is nine and needed help as her iPad froze during remote learning, and no one could help her other than her own mother as her grandmother isn't comfortable with technology. Ms. Reveles asked her employer CVS to see if they could lessen her work hours a little so that she could tend to her kid. In response, CVS said that they would work on accommodating her, but nothing was confirmed. 

 

Her and many other parents, especially women, have faced such issues as statistics show that women were three times more likely to leave work due to child-care & pandemic issues. The retail sector is one where hours are not flexible, and thus women working here are torn between parenting and work. The pandemic has affected women's employment massively, and to top, the FED has not offered much child-care relief to parents who work. The FED keeps working towards unemployment benefits, but companies are barely taking any stance towards helping parents who need to help children with online school. Some companies like Amazon have offered subsidized child care, which isn't that helpful as women especially have left their positions. Women working in other companies are also contemplating to leave their jobs. The major problem here is that some of these women are the sole financial support of their households, and thus it is hard for them to make ends meet and keep their children's education up to the mark. Overall, this is just one of the many problems this pandemic has brought forth, and we don't know what the future holds for us as COVID cases are still on the rise worldwide.

TIKTOK TUSSLE shows the uneven ECONOMIC DECOUPLING increase between the U.S. & CHINA (BLOG 2)

 Just last month the craze over TikTok increased. But this is what President Trump thas taken this is a national security threat and Chinese companies ownership. On Saturday the President talked about a deal with Walmart and Oracle which included partnering up with TikTok in a new U.S. controlled company. The commerce team abruptly then announced on Friday that they would ban both Tiktok as well as WeChat another Chinese Application. But the Federal Judge later issued a temporary injunction which blocked the WeChat ban meaning that both of the Apps are still working in the U.S.

Chinas Foreign Ministry groused that is was a showcase of Washington's hideous agenda of robbery and economic bullying. The U.S. and China have not been on good terms either. the Chinese government put out a new global data in order to be able to outflank their rival's (U.S) Initiative. The Chinese Ambassador quit the his post in Beijing who preferred to help Trump in his reelection bid. 

Two of the largest economies in the world are fighting against each other and are drifting apart in ever situation be in technological or Industrial. Do you think it may lead to a nuclear war in the future if things get worse between the two countries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/09/20/trump-china-tiktok-economic-decoupling/

Coronavirus recession ends for the rich but is far from over for lower-income communities

 The recession caused by the coronavirus is causing way more damage to lower income individuals. Upper class individuals were not affected as bad as lower income people. They were less likely to become unemployed and they were more likely to receive stimulus checks throughout the pandemic. Because of this many economists believe that the havoc that COVID has unleashed on Americans is primarily over for many groups of people, the wealthy white, and higher-educated people were the least likely to lose their jobs. Assets like stocks and real estate have also boomed which has increased the wealth of many high income individuals. Sectors like hospitality and leisure that took the most damage due to the coronavirus tend to hire women and people of color and tend to pay lower wages, but due to COVID and the restrictions that were imposed many women and people of color were laid off. Latino unemployment also ballooned to almost 19% but the unemployment rate for whites was only 14%.

Even With A Vaccine, The Economy Could Take Many Months To Return To Normal

    Once a vaccine is discovered we won’t necessarily be able to get back to normal right away. Economists are connecting the speed of recovery to the varying levels of immunity. “Even if the vast majority of the population become immune to the coronavirus tomorrow, leading economists think it could take six months or more before our economy is back to where it was before the pandemic hit. And if a smaller share of the population became immune, economists think returning to economic normalcy would likely take more than a year.” Some economists are being more optimistic than others. The optimistic ones are looking for consumers to take part in more spending. Consumers will be looking to take postponed vacations and go to more restaurants which would lead to a quick recovery in hospitality and tourism. The large pent up demand will be the changing factor. On the other hand, some think that consumers aren’t necessarily going on a spending spree and business investment is generally muted following a recession. They believe it is going to take time for the unemployed to find jobs because businesses will be focusing on recovering and then will work on scaling their way back up to where they were before. Even though there are contradicting viewpoints with future outcomes, the news is becoming more optimistic with overall GDP growth which is good news. 

Thomson-DeVeaux, Amelia, and Neil Paine. “Even With A Vaccine, The Economy Could Take Many Months To Return To Normal.” FiveThirtyEight, FiveThirtyEight, 25 Aug. 2020, fivethirtyeight.com/features/even-with-a-vaccine-the-economy-could-take-many-months-to-return-to-normal/.

The US economy needs more help. Congress is too divided to provide it

According to Goldman Sachs, small businesses are disappearing, unemployment claims remain high, state and local budgets are imploding. Still, Congress is likely to skip town this month without providing additional emergency aid to the economy. "At this point, a major stimulus package before the election looks like a long shot," Goldman Sachs.

For example, another 860,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, retail sales growth slowed in August, more than half of the business that closed during the pandemic will never reopen, bankruptcy filings are increasing, including Brooks Brothers and California Pizza.

Valliere writes that: "Without a stimulus package, more small businesses will close, state and local governments will lay off thousands of workers, and evictions will increase."

The question comes to mind why isn't Congress doing something?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/business/stimulus-goldman-sachs-economy-gdp/index.html

Pandemic caused recession is largely over for the rich

 The recession created by the pandemic is largely over for Americans who are affluent. According to the article, the recession is largely over some groups like white and college educated Americans. The unemployment rate for minorities sky rocketed but has remained high where as the unemployment rate for whites has returned to lower rate. For the demographic that does not have a higher education degree the unemployment rate peaked at 21%. This is roughly three times more than what the unemployment rate for college educated Americans. To even further back the claim that the recession is over for these demographics, the top thirds of earners had there jobs fully recovered. Within the article they point out that Americans who did not lose their jobs are blind to the financial struggles that are plaguing the country currently. Overall a huge driving factor is that these groups were less likely to lose their jobs and their jobs rebounded quickly. These groups were also able save their stimulus money and financial assets such as stocks and real estate have improved heavily. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/20/coronavirus-recession-ends-for-rich-crisis-persists-for-others.html

Disputes in Congress slow down the US economic recovery process.

With less than two months until the election, the odds for another stimulus package indented to help small businesses and increase unemployment benefits are near to zero. After the last week's vote, it's highly unlikely that the Republican-backed stimulus plan would come into effect before the election. Negotiations between both parties ended in a deadlock as neither of them could agree on the size and makeup of another round of stimulus. However, on the other hand, the economy is still suffering. More small businesses are shutting down, first time unemployment’s claims remain relatively high and states and local budgets are collapsing.

Greg Valliere described the situation as … “The economy seems to be running out of steam in the last few weeks”. He backed his analysis by relating to the statement issued by The Fed Chairman that more stimulus is urgently needed from the Congress. For instance, retail sales growth declined in August, 860,000 more American filed for first-time unemployment claims last week. Yelp reported that more than the majority of restaurants that closed during the pandemic might never re-open. Since July large businesses filing for bankruptcies spiked 244%. Valliere fears that if the government fails to put out another stimulus package, more small businesses will close, unemployment would increase locally and increasing evictions as well. Similarly, The Fed Chairman has also insisted that another stimulus is necessary. He thinks that the initial response from the fiscal authorities was very effective and efficient and expects the government to do the same to keep up with the recovery speed. The chairman emphasized the fact that about 11 million jobs lost due to the pandemic are of those industries that suffered the most from the global crisis and without government aid it will be difficult for them to survive.

The question that comes into mind is why is Congress overlooking this problem and delaying it? Is it because Democrats are confident that the blue wave is coming, and they would rather wait until next year and give out a larger stimulus package?                    

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/business/stimulus-goldman-sachs-economy-gdp/index.html

Low Rates to Continue

 The Federal Reserve met last week to discuss their policy moving forward. The two big notes from this meeting are that the Fed plans for keep interest rates low (between 0-0.25%) likely until 2023. The purpose of keeping rates low is to attempt to help raise inflation. The Fed announced about a month ago that they want to increase inflation and would be okay to see rates near 4%. By keeping rates low, the Fed is encouraging consumers to spend money as it is "cheap" to obtain through low rates. They are hoping to increase cash in circulation, increase consumer spending, and increase inflation. Another big thing to note is the lowered their forecasted unemployment to 7.6% instead of 9.3%. This shows belief the economy will return to pre-COVID levels at a quicker than originally expected pace.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/fed-meeting-decision-interest-rates.html