ANALYSIS, COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS IN PROF. SKOSPLES' ECONOMIC SYSTEMS COURSE AT OHIO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Illinois Governor in Corruption Scandal
The Illinois Congress said that they will hold an emergency meeting to draft a law that they will allow them to appoint a new senator.
Merrill's Thain seeking 2008 bonus of $10 million: report
Financial Crisis Tames Demand for World’s Oldest Service
So I guess this makes prostitution a normal good...
Economic slump causes NFL to cut staff
Zimbabwe MDC adviser 'kidnapped'
It would bring to 18 the number of MDC activists and rights campaigners who have vanished in the past six weeks.
President Robert Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF party and Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who has been deadlocked in power-sharing negotiations since September, can do nothing about the current outbreak of cholera.
The UN says nearly 600 Zimbabweans are known to have died in the outbreak, but there are fears that the number may be much higher.
Slump hits India's car industry
Nissan's representive's said it still wanted to start car production together with Renault in the first half of 2010, as scheduled, at a plant in the southern city of Chennai.
But the factory, thus far, will start with just one daily shift, instead of two.
Other projects in India, including a joint venture between Nissan, Renault and India's Bajaj Auto to sell a $2,500 (£1,700) car from 2011, would go ahead as planned, Nissan said.
Demand for trucks in India has also dropped by more than 60% over the past year because of the credit crunch and a sharp drop in construction activity.
Nintendo Sees Wii, DS Sales Holding Up, Bucking Slump
Iwata’s comments indicate Nintendo is coping better than Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp. with the global recession that forced the world’s two largest consumer-electronics makers to slash their annual revenue forecasts. Monthly retail sales in the U.S. tumbled the most in almost four decades in November.
U.S. sales of the Wii in the week ended Nov. 29 doubled to about 800,000 consoles, Iwata said. The number of portable DS players sold rose 20 percent to around 800,000, he said.
The Wii has outsold the PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox 360 almost every month since its release in November 2006. Nintendo’s flagship machine led U.S. console sales in October with 803,000 units, followed by 371,000 for the Xbox 360 and 190,000 for the PS3, according to researcher NPD Group Inc.
The yen has jumped 36 percent against the euro this year and 20 percent versus the dollar, ranking it as the top performer among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The impact from the yen is probably “less than for rivals” because Nintendo has been buying a larger proportion of its components in dollars in recent years, the executive said. The company will adjust the share of components purchased in yen, euros and dollars to minimize costs, he said.
Sony to Trim 8,000 Jobs and Reduce Investment
Sony, which had already announced cost cuts and had been widely expected to outline more, blamed the rapid deterioration in the global economic outlook and the strength of the yen for the latest cuts.
Sony’s earnings — like those of many of the region’s export giants, including Canon, Samsung and Honda — have plummeted as a result of the slowing export and forced the company to cut its annual profit forecast for the fiscal year through March 2009 by 58 percent in October.
Five firms seen vying for AIG Japan units-sources
Prudential unit Gibraltar Life Insurance Co and Manulife will bid for AIG Edison Life Insurance Co and AIG Star Life Insurance Co. The remaining three bidders are a Japanese insurance company and two non-Japanese firms.
AIG has said it plans to sell everything except its U.S. property and casualty business, foreign general insurance, and an ownership interest in some foreign life operations.
Global Crisis
Kroger says 3Q earnings fall 6 percent
The nation's largest traditional grocery store chain reported Tuesday that net income was $237.7 million, or 36 cents per share. Last year, Kroger reported net income of $253.8 million, or 37 cents per share.
Revenue for the quarter rose 9 percent to $17.6 billion.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had predicted earnings of 38 cents per share, on revenue of $17.4 billion.
Kroger said results included an after-tax charge of $15.9 million, or 3 cents per share, related to its $25 million insurance deductible for Ike. The storm damaged stores, forced some to shut down temporarily and caused outage-spoiled food in September.
Otherwise, Kroger said earnings would have been $253.6 million, or 39 cents per share.
German Industrial Output Slumps
Construction activity also fell by 3 percent. Germany, which is one of the world’s largest exporters, has been hit hard by the global decline in demand. Two of their largest sectors are car production and machine tool production.
This is the first recession for Germany since the beginning of 2003.
China 'Faces Mass Social Unrest'
The real rate of joblessness is at 12 percent and could get to 14 percent by next year as the economy continues to slow down. China’s GDP has also decreased to 9 percent in the third quarter, down from 10.1 percent in the second quarter. Future growth rates are to be expected around 7.5 percent. To help with the country’s problems, the Chinese government passed a stimulus package and cut interest rates.
Petitioners in China 'Abducted'
Most of the complaints stem form land disputes with the state. Human rights groups have accused China for forcing people in mental hospitals for quite some time. Some have been imprisoned for years, never receiving a proper trial.
Rwandan Growth Could Reach 10 Percent
Rwanda has been trying to repair its economy since the 1994 genocide. They have been focusing on farming, tourism, mining, and energy sectors. With this news comes that the Rwandan franc is overvalued by 10 to 15 percent. Inflation is at 21.9 percent, but Rwandan officials expect inflation to it to be in single digits by 2009.
Obama Vows Aid for Car Industry
The plan is a “stop-gap,” which will help the three ailing firms until Mr. Obama can take office and help formulate a long-term plan. He has said that letting these firm going into bankruptcy is not an option.
Economist Paul Krugman has said that he doubts that the US car sector would survive; however it is worth our help in the short run. He says that in the end these companies will probably disappear.
Record Cut in the Euro Zone Interest Rates
The ECB’s chief expects the Euro zone to continue to be in a recession, shrinking by .5 to 1 percent. The forecast for inflation is expected to be about 3.3 to 3.5 percent in 2008 and the estimation for 2009 is 1.4 to 2.6 percent.
Analysts predict that interest rates could decrease to 1.5 percent by March in hopes of boosting the economy.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Job Losses are Worst since 1974
The jobless rate has increased as discouraged job seekers actively searching for jobs have started to give up hope. The number of people who were actively searching for work, but have since given up, increased from 11.8% in October to 12.5% in November. President elect Barack Obama steps into a challenging economic environment."There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it's likely to get worse before it gets better," he said.
The economy is contracting sharply as consumers weary of the current economic climate have dramatically decreased there spending. Retailers are taking the grunt as many stores are struggling to survive the storm. In order to get the economy back on track two main factors need to be addressed. First is stabilization in the housing system and second is unclogging the credit crunch. Strategic moves by the Fed and the U.S treasury along with the 700 billion fiscal stimulus package should help get the economy back on its feet. The worst is far from over as economists expect the unemployment rate to hit 8% over the next year. This is a very challenging time for job seekers and it is only going to get worse in the near future.
Obama Bonds to Give Buyers Taste of Japan Lost Decade
Bando bought Treasuries, as did Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees $41.9 billion and bet all year that inflation in the U.S. will turn into deflation, buoying government debt. JPMorgan Asset Management Japan Ltd., part of the largest U.S. lender, is buying Treasuries, speculating the Federal Reserve will purchase the securities to keep yields down and spur the economy, just as the Bank of Japan did a decade ago.
Commercial banks may also buy more government debt, they said. Since 2000, Japanese banks increased their holdings of the nation’s bonds to 20 percent from 9 percent of total assets, Jen and Andreopoulos wrote. U.S. banks have about 10 percent of their assets in government securities, down from 20 percent in 2003.
Japan deeper in recession, Q3 GDP shows
While the weakness until the third quarter largely stemmed from high oil prices, the economy is expected to take the brunt of the global downturn in the fourth quarter and beyond.
Gross domestic product shrank a revised 0.5 percent in the July-September quarter, against a preliminary reading of a 0.1 percent contraction and economists' median forecast of a 0.2 percent fall.
On an annualized basis, the Japanese economy shrank 1.8 percent, more than the initial reading of a 0.4 percent contraction and below economists' median forecast for a revised 0.9 percent decline.
Asian Stocks Rise on U.S., India Stimulus Plans; Komatsu Gains
Komatsu Ltd., the world's No. 2 maker of construction machinery, rose 11 percent after Obama planned the largest spending package since President Dwight D. Eisenhower created the interstate highway system. India's Housing Development Finance Corp. added 5.7 percent on a $4 billion government stimulus plan. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. surged 16 percent after a government official said a plan that permits Chinese nationals to buy the city's shares is still on track.
Hong Kong Exchanges, which manages Asia's third-largest bourse, surged 16 percent to HK$71.50. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the Hong Kong-listed developer controlled by China's construction ministry, jumped 15 percent to HK$12.42.
Aeon Co., Japan's largest supermarket operator, jumped 6.2 percent to 879 yen, the most since Nov. 10. Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's biggest trading house, will purchase a stake of about 5 percent in Aeon and form an alliance to buy and distribute goods and open stores, two people familiar with the matter said Dec. 6.
VND/US$ exchange rate soars, gold price drops
Meanwhile, the interbank exchange rate announced by the State Bank of Vietnam for yesterday, November 12, was VND16,496/US$1, or VND2/US$1 less than the previous day. The exchange rates applied by banks have remained stable at VND16,940-16,950/US$1.
When asked why the VND/US$ exchange rate on the black market in the last few days was higher than the ceiling level, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Van Giau said that it was because of speculation. However, as the volume of transactions on the black market just accounts for a small proportion, this will not affect the production and business of enterprises.
As for the domestic gold price, the price of bar gold yesterday decreased by VND50,000/tael over the previous day. SJC gold in Hanoi was quoted at VND16.56-16.66mil/tael (purchase and sale), Bao Tin Minh Chau gold VND16.55-16.61mil/tael. The current domestic price is still VND1.3mil/tael higher than the world’s price.
Investors are currently indifferent to the gold price decreases. The market is still quiet with very few transactions. Some experts say that people are not purchasing at this moment because these are not yet the bottom gold prices, and that people will wait until gold prices go down further.
$15 billion is granted as a start in bailing out the big three
The loan is designed to help GM and Chrysler avoid imminent bankruptcy, and buy both the industry and Congress time to come up with a (hopefully) more comprehensive solution.
Among issues being discussed:
- Limitations on executive pay and restrictions on how any government loans could be used. Additionally, pressure is mounting on GM to remove Rick Wagoner as CEO.
- Warrant for taxpayers that are senior to existing stakeholders to ensure any Federal loans are repaid first.
- The creation of a Federal oversight board led by a "car czar" and including the Secretaries of Treasury, Energy, Labor, Commerce, and Transportation plus the Environmental Protection Agency.
It's hard to say which is more frightening — the idea of the auto industry being run from Washington, D.C., or that experts like Economy.com's Mark Zandi say the Big Three will utilmately need $75 billion to $125 billion in order to avoid bankruptcy.
China to invest $10 billion in Brazil oil
Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao also told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper that the United Arab Emirates has offered to develop fields, but he did not specify a price tag. Lobao said Chinese officials contacted his ministry to propose a loan and Petrobras then negotiated directly with the Chinese. He gave no details on the status of talks, and any deal would have to be approved by his ministry.
Petrobras, in an e-mailed statement to The Associated Press, didn't confirm a China deal, but said the company has historically searched for "varied sources of financing" and that recent deals will be included in its new investment plan, expected in the coming weeks.
Lobao told the privately run Agencia Estado news agency other countries also wanted to participate: "It's not just China. It's a range of opportunities that Petrobras has." Lobao said the ministry has talked with a Japanese consortium, Canadian banks and various foreign oil service companies who want to invest in or work on offshore finds. He offered no other details.
Petrobras says it has discovered 50 billion to 80 billion barrels of reserves over the past year and is gearing up to spend hundreds of billions of dollars during the next 30 years to extract the light crude.
Some good news for quake victims in Pakistan
The initial warnings of a spread of disease through the quake-affected areas have proved largely unfounded. The UN World Health Organization, which initiated a Disease Early Warning System soon after the quake, and has been monitoring the situation in Pishin and Ziarat, has noted that acute respiratory infections are responsible for nearly 50 percent of medical consultations in the area - no higher than in the 'peak season' in previous years.
Adequate supplies of food also seem to have reached victims, with families saying 'we suffered no shortages after the earliest days.'
However, post-quake water shortages have added to the difficulties of people in an area where fruit growing is a key means of livelihood. 'The water channel from a nearby stream that I used for watering my apple trees is useless as the stream is now dry,' said Azeem Khan.
Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which is coordinating the relief effort, said 710 houses were completely destroyed, another 4,524 were badly damaged and over 4,600 suffered minor damage.
Cooperation, but no extradition without proof
Pakistan’s demarche noted that it had started its own investigations into the Mumbai attacks, but progress was constrained by a lack of information sharing between India and Pakistan regarding the incident.
Fake Simpsons cartoon 'is porn'
The internet cartoon featured characters from the Simpsons TV series.
The central issue in the case was whether a cartoon character could depict a real person.
Judge Michael Adams decided that it could, and found a man from Sydney guilty of possessing child pornography on his computer.
The defence had argued that the fictional, animated characters were not real people, and clearly departed from the human form.
They therefore contested that the conviction for the possession of child pornography should be overturned.
Justice Michael Adams said the purpose of anti-child pornography legislation was to stop sexual exploitation and child abuse where images of "real" children were depicted.
But in a landmark ruling he decided that the mere fact that they were not realistic representations of human beings did not mean that they could not be considered people.
He ruled that the animated cartoon could "fuel demand for material that does involve the abuse of children," and therefore upheld the conviction for child pornography.
Rather than jail the man, however, he fined him Aus$3,000 (US$2,000).
Greece cities hit by new rioting
Hundreds of students battled police in Thessaloniki, while protests also turned violent in Trikala, the port of Piraeus, and on the island of Corfu.
Police used tear gas against rioters in Athens, where youths threw petrol bombs and set fire to buildings and vehicles.
Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis has gone on television to appeal for calm.
He said "extreme elements" were taking advantage of the situation to engage in vandalism and pledged to compensate businesses damaged. Television pictures showed small fires burning in the centre of Athens and hundreds of people wandering through the streets, some attacking banks, businesses and vehicles.
A large Christmas tree in central Syntagma Square was set on fire and windows were smashed on hotels, government buildings and departments stores.
There were reports of looting in some parts of the country.
Pakistan 'crackdown on militants'
The Lashkar-e-Taiba group's operational chief, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, who is said by Delhi to have ordered the attacks, was reportedly seized.
Witnesses heard several loud explosions and saw a helicopter and dozens of army personnel at the scene.
The outlawed group is one of the most feared in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Cordoned off
Government and militant-related sources in the capital Islamabad and in the Kashmiri city of Muzaffarabad reported Mr Lakhvi's detention although there has been no official confirmation.
Top 9/11 suspects to plead guilty
Military Judge Col Stephen Henley had ordered the probe into whether the two were mentally competent to stand trial.
The five men face death sentences if convicted of roles in the 2001 attacks.
Correspondents say no trial date has been set and there seems little chance that one will begin before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.
He has said he is opposed to the military tribunal and has pledged to close down the detention centre at Guantanamo Bay.
'No intimidation'
For the first time, nine relatives of the 9/11 victims were flown to Cuba by the US military to watch Monday's pre-trial hearing.
Stocks: More pain, more gains?
-What indicators should be examined during this period?
-When can we truely say that the bottom has been reached?
Sunday, December 7, 2008
India unveils $4bn stimulus plan
Business confidence in India has fallen due to the recent terrorist attack. Along side the stimulus package and lowered interests the government is also planning on giving tax cuts to further encourage spending in India. Due to the rising debt of India, India has a limited weapons to battle this economic down turn, prior to this package India has primary used monetary policies to battle the recession.
Price of Recyclables Falling Fast
This is just another example of how the weakening economy is hurting almost every industy in some way. Hopefully this does not affect peoples willingness to continue recycling.
Rise in Unemployment in the US
This, I feel is a big deal for America, whose unemployment rate rose from 5% to 6.7% since December 2007.
Oil prices fall to four-year low
Global slowdown
The precipitous fall in oil prices – from a record high of over $147 a barrel on July 11 – comes as businesses across the world cut jobs in an effort to survive the global economic slowdown.As oil prices fell on Friday, the US labour department reported that 530,000 people fell out of work in November.The US unemployment rate now stands at 6.7 per cent, its highest level since October 1993.The fall in oil prices and industrial output, along with higher than expected levels of unemployment in the world’s biggest economies, have led analysts to predict that the global recession will be a protracted one."The wild bull era is over," Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading, said.The decline in oil prices comes after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) put off a decision on reducing oil output until December 17.
Demand sinks
A sharp rise in oil prices in the first seven months of 2008 was due to strong global economic growth, cheap money and available credit, Flynn said.But since the global financial crisis began in September, primarily in the banking sector, lines of easy credit to businesses have evaporated, hitting demand for crude."We are now entering a new era of lower and more stable oil prices for years to come. That does not mean we will not see other bull markets along their way but get used to the markets trading different than they did throughout most of this decade," he said.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday lowered its projections for global oil demand in 2008-2013. It said that demand for oil products would climb from 86.2 million barrels a day in 2008 to 91.3 million in 2013, revising downwards its July forecasts.The US, eurozone and Japan are already in recession and investors are concerned that oil prices could sink as low as $25 a barrel if the global downturn hits major emerging countries such as China and India.
Lower Oil prices may seem like a good thing when you are at the pump, but it can have disastrous side effects, not only because it decreases the push for alternative energy options, but because there are many countries in the middle east whose economies are on the brink. one of the only things that has kept them from collapsing years ago is their oil revenues. already some of these countries (Saudi Arabia) have almost 50% unemployment and when their economy gets worse, so will the unrest and violence that it triggers. If the US is truly committed to peace in the middle east, it should be ready to help these economies move away from oil dependence so that crises or the introduction of alternative energy to not the starting point of tremendous economic suffering and civil unrest in the region.
Oil, and its pricey rollercoaster ride
The implications? Well, for us college students, its simple. Gas is cheaper, travelling is easier, and the financial brunt of this recession is reduced. I'm pretty sure all other American's are on the same boat here. The oil producing countries though, i'm afraid, are hating on us. They planned out their budgets based on a price of $60 a barrel, and countries like Iran, Venezuela and Russia and feeling its immediate fallout. They cut back on production, cut back on spending, have tried to reign in the supply but the market just keeps falling.
This is good, since prices were overbid, but is also bad since a lot of energy related consumption needed a wake up call, and high prices was it. What i would hate to see is all that media attention on the "new energy" sector to goto waste. The 80's showed us a flash of light, and last year's prices gave us the thundering sound blast. Lets not forget, that this lighting rod of oil dependency will always strike again.
Latvia arrests Economist for giving public financial advice..
Mr Smirnov, who teaches at Ventspils University College, says he was held in a cell by himself but was treated well. The police have been reluctant to talk about the case, but in a statement to the BBC said: "The Security Police of Latvia received a complaint from a finance control institution, after that we initiated criminal procedure." A spokesman for Latvia's prime minister said he would not comment on Mr Smirnov's arrest but said: "We support freedom of opinions, it is the base of our constitution".
Mr Smirnov says he will watch what he says in future. Asked if he would change his advice in light of his arrest, he said: "Of course I will be more careful. I don't want again to go to prison." He is not allowed to leave the country while the investigation continues but says there has been a "great reaction" to his arrest and he has been supported by Latvia's media.
Latvia, which has been a member of the European Union since 2004, is currently in talks with the International Monetary Fund about a possible loan. Finance Minister Atis Slakteris has said the IMF wants the central bank to devalue the lat but the government does not want to. The country is in recession and its output is predicted to shrink by 5% in 2009, according to the central bank.
Its interesting how, on one hand, a ogvernment wants to promote free speech, and on the other hand, the economy's welfare depends on experts not creating a stampede of capital flight (which requires stiffling free speech).
Budget deficits galore...
Its a whopping "$4 billion dollars". The columnist writes about how mounting debt in India has played such a strong role in hindering any investment by the government. The reasons traverse deeper though. India is a host of numerous loans from the World Bank and IMF and one of their binding conditions for loan usage is controlling a government fiscal deficit and reigning it in. Thats why India gives its people a $4 billion dollar stimulus, while China gives its people a $586 billion dollar stimulus package.
So lets talk about here, in United States. The total cost is now nearing about $1.5 trillion dollars. Wow. How is America gonna manage their "fiscal deficit problem"? Agreed its nowhere close to India's budget deficit and is considered a safer investment destination, in the long run, will America be able to satisfy its creditors that their money will be repaid and more importantly, will Obama satisfy his liberal economic goals while controlling the country's deficit problem.
Its clear, Obama and America have a long road ahead of them.
I'm thinkin 10 years and counting..
Man killed for 'hogging karaoke'
Abdul Sani Doli, 23, reportedly angered some of the customers when he hogged the stage at the bar in Sandakan town on eastern Borneo island.
Witnesses said he was attacked, and the fight spilled out on to the street.
He was punched before being stabbed to death with a knife. His body was found a short distance from the bar.
Sandakan's police chief ACP Rosli Mohd Isa said two men were in police custody, helping them with their inquiries.
Karaoke, in which amateurs can sing along to their favourite songs, first emerged from Japan and became hugely popular across Asia during the 1980s, before spreading to other parts of the world.
Man killed for 'hogging karaoke'
Abdul Sani Doli, 23, reportedly angered some of the customers when he hogged the stage at the bar in Sandakan town on eastern Borneo island.
Witnesses said he was attacked, and the fight spilled out on to the street.
He was punched before being stabbed to death with a knife. His body was found a short distance from the bar.
Sandakan's police chief ACP Rosli Mohd Isa said two men were in police custody, helping them with their inquiries.
Karaoke, in which amateurs can sing along to their favourite songs, first emerged from Japan and became hugely popular across Asia during the 1980s, before spreading to other parts of the world.