Sales recovered 3.4% in Britain from December according to the Office for National Statistics which is the best monthly gain they have seen since April of 2021. This has provided hope for economists that the nation's recession will be shorter than they had originally expected. This increase in sale was fairly uniform across all sectors with food shops specifically seeing the largest jump at 3.9%.
The latest figures also show the British economy has officially entered a recession after a 0.3% decline in GDP in the fourth quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the third. In December Britain saw their biggest monthly decline in sales since January of 2021 at 3.3%, meaning even after the large recovery in sales seen this month they are still 1.3% below their pre-pandemic levels. Economist Joe Maher believes the uptick in sales indicates the worst could be behind them and the combination of falling inflation and rising wages will allow for a good chance of recovery.
The outlook this month is only semi-positive as growth figures are down, however inflation seems steady and December saw a healthy job report in December. Economists also note that monthly data are very volatile and the sales jump lat month really only worked to offset the decline that was seen in December and restore the level seen in November. This is consistent with the stagnation seen through the last 18 months in Britain, however economists believe this could be the start of a momentum shift that leads to a real increase in activity in the retail sector.
Source - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/16/uk-retail-rebound-provides-glimmer-of-light-for-recession-hit-nation.html
4 comments:
Interesting to me that even throughout their recession, the value of the pound has been strong. I'll be interested to see how it reacts to more optimistic thinking from economists and an economy supposedly pulling itself from the ashes of recession.
With all that has been going on, it is remarkable that the pound has stayed strong and not necessarily fluctuated as much as other currencies and their subsequent strengths.
What specific data does the Office for National Statistics provide regarding the 3.4% sales recovery in Britain, and how does it compare to the gains seen since April 2021?
i agree with the comments talking about the pound holding its value. I read somewhere that the bank of england is increasing interest rates faster than other countries in this situation like japan which attracts foreign investors hence helping the pound maintain its value
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