What the Rates of Workers Switching Employers or Holding Multiple Jobs Can Tell Us

 The St. Louis Fed recently analyzed how the portion of American workers who work multiple jobs has changed since the pandemic. During the COVID-19, the rate of people working multiple jobs dipped to around 4%. This was significant because this was historically low. Since then, around March 2025, that rate had recovered to about 5.5% which translates to over 8 million people. Alongside that, the number of people working multiple part-time jobs also fell between March and July, which could indicate that some workers returned to full-time roles or quit their part-time employment.

These changes are important and have some implications for the labor market. Rising rates of people holding multiple jobs often indicate financial pressures or when money is tight. On the other hand, it’s important to consider that some of this increase may not be because of financial pressure, but rather done willingly because of life-style changes or related circumstances. At the end of the day, the consistency of millions of people working more than one job highlights the current challenges in the economy and home income. 

Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2025/aug/workers-switching-employers-holding-multiple-jobs

Markets Stumble Out of Long Weekend

With Labor Day weekend coming to a close, the stock market opened September on a weak note. The S&P 500 fell roughly 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1% after large tech stocks pulled back. Nvidia was one of the biggest movers, losing 1.5% ahead of the market opening. Investors are worried about high-tech valuations and increasing U.S. government debt.

It wasn't just stocks under pressure; global bonds also sold off, pushing yields higher. The U.S. dollar posted its biggest one-day gain (about 0.9%) since July, following a six‑day losing streak. This was due to better-than-expected manufacturing data. Gold rose to an all‑time high of over $3,500 an ounce as investors expect possible interest rate reductions this month. 

Van Vuuren, A. J. (2025, September 1). Stocks fall as rising yields stir investor jitters: Markets wrap. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-01/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates

The economy rebounded and has grown 3.3 percent in the second quarter

U.S. Economy Rebounds in Second Quarter 2025

  The U.S. economy showed a strong rebound this spring, bouncing back from a weak first quarter that was largely attributed to the Trump administration’s escalating of trade wars. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 3.3% annual pace from April through June, an upward revision from the initial 3% estimate released in July.

This follows a difficult start to the year, when GDP contracted by 0.5% in the first three months of 2025. Economists largely blamed this downturn on a surge in imports as businesses rushed to stock up on foreign goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs. Since imports are subtracted from GDP, this created a temporary drag on growth.

In the second quarter, however, the trend reversed, imports fell at a 29.8% annual pace, boosting GDP growth by over 5 percentage points. While this provided a temporary lift, some economists caution that it does not necessarily signal long-term economic strength.

 President Donald Trump holds charts as he speaks about the economy in the Oval Office of the White House, Aug. 7, 2025, in Washington.

Q2 growth looked strong on paper, but most of it came from a one-time collapse in imports. Consumer spending is improving, but weak investment and shrinking government spending still suggest that more challenges may be ahead.

source: https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2025-08-28/us-economy-grows-3-3-in-second-quarter-government-says-in-second-estimate-of-april-june-growth 

Global Music Industry Faces Slower Growth but Promises Long-Term Potential

     Last year the global music industry grew significantly less than it did in 2023, growing only 6.2% compared to 15.6%. Despite these current setbacks, analysts from Goldman Sachs are very optimistic about the future economic growth in the music industry. These projections are very bold, as Goldman Sachs is projecting that the industries revenue is going to almost double in the next 10 years reaching a new milestone of 200 million. However, this report explained that the path to reaching 100 million in 2024 is going to be a lot different in the next decade.

    There are going to be a lot of key factors that change the way the music industry generates revenue within the next 10 years. Emerging streaming markets that are specific to Africa, Asia, and Latin America are expected to develop as internet access in these areas grows a new wave of subscribers will join. Additionally an integration of video content is expected to arise as streaming services will make music videos, live sessions, and even interactive experiences. Lastly, new monetization models will surface giving artists more profit while increasing the engagement of the fans. Overall, even with a down year in growth for the music industry, experts believe with emerging streaming markets, new video content and monetization models the music industry will go nuclear in the next decade.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/global-music-revenues-are-forecast-to-double-to-200-million-in-2035

Germany issues with higher inflation and unemployment has reason for concern

        Germany, like much of Europe, is having a huge issue with unemployment and inflation issues in their economy this summer. Germany's inflation rose higher than expected to 2.1% in August while in July it rose at a much better 1.8% .During this core inflation, which strips out the food and energy inflation stayed at steady 2.7% while unemployment rose much higher with it reaching 6.4% which is well above where they want to be. These pressures are being compounded by wider issues of the newly implemented U.S. tariffs, which could have an even worse affect in the months ahead. 

    The U.S and EU struck a trade agreement in July, which included a 15% tariff rate on much of the exported goods into the U.S. economy. This has a huge affect on Germany because of their highly export-driven economy which could cause an overcapacity at home, lowering the prices of these goods. These decisions have already contracted the country's GDP expanding by 0.3% in quarter one, and then contracting by 0.3% in the next period. The full impact of the tariffs remain very much uncertain, but they could cause the Central Bank to consider cutting rates at their next couple of meetings. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/german-inflation-august-2025.html

Core inflation rose to 2.9% in July, highest since February

 President Trump has pursued aggressive trade policies such his inauguration, including the imposition of widespread tariffs. The Trump administration has argued that these measures would rebalance trade relations and kickstart the American economic growth. However, the ripple effects of these tariffs are now being seen in inflation data, specifically the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In July, core inflation rose to a 2.9% annual rate, a 0.1% increase from June and the highest annual rate since February. While this is in line with the forecasted rate, this increase signals that the tariff related costs are making their way to consumers. 

This places the Federal Reserve in a challenging position. With the inflation above 2%, the central bankers benchmark and concerns surrounding the job market growing, the federal reserve could still cautiously cut rates. The strength of the labor market will be the determining factor for rate cuts as stated by Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, with the odds stilll favoring a September cut. 

In order to avoid long term strain on the market, policymakers may have to offset the effects of the tariffs with incentives or other targeted relief. Without this, consumers could continue to bear the brunt of the higher prices due to the elevated inflation rates and economic momentum could slow. 

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/pce-inflation-report-july-2025.html 

Here’s how the U.S. Open’s signature Honey Deuce cocktail price stacks up against inflation

    The Honey Deuce cocktail, the US Open's signature cocktail, is becoming pricier by the year for tennis fans in New York. The drink, consisting of vodka, lemonade, and honeydew "tennis balls," now sells for a whopping $23. This price is 53% higher than what it was selling for in 2015. Inflation and the increase in the average price of alcoholic drinks are the main factors driving this price increase. If its price had simply kept pace with the Consumer Price Index, the Honey Deuce would cost just over $20 today. Despite six price hikes since 2012, the drink remains a staple of the tournament, served in a souvenir cup and symbolizing the fan experience at one of tennis’s biggest stages.

    Even with its steep cost, demand has only grown. More than 550,000 Honey Deuces were sold in 2024, generating nearly $13 million in revenue. This revenue is more than the combined earnings of the tournament champions! Economists point to “funflation” as part of the explanation, which explains how people are willing to pay premium prices for memorable experiences, whether that’s concerts, travel, or sporting events. Overall, the cocktail has become more of a tradition than a good for spectators looking to enjoy the US Open. 

Source: Honey Deuce: Here's how U.S. Open's signature cocktail's price stacks up against inflation

Trump’s immigration policy threatens key sectors of California’s economy, long reliant on immigrant workers

 Since taking office, President Trump has been adamant on enforcing immigration laws. His claims backing the controversial methods of expelling immigrants include improving the wages and cost of living for American-born citizens. Nevertheless, the American economy relies significantly on the inclusion and incentivization of immigrant workers. California, specifically, boasts a large immigrant portion of its labor force mostly in the agriculture, construction, and hospitality sectors. For instance, 63% of California's agriculture labor force is immigrants with nearly a quarter of them being undocumented. 

While a decrease in the amount of workers would increase the wages for American-born workers, overall productivity of the economy would decrease and GDP would likely fall. It is estimated that California could lose a potential $278 billion in GDP if the current pace of deportations continues. In this issue, we see the intersection of political policy and a nation's economic system. In the long run, labor shortages would likely return to a sustainable level but overall output may increase at a slower rate. Another alarming facet of this issue is the skills in the labor force. If a political administration decides to enforce stricter immigration laws, and immigrants make up a majority of these "blue-collar" industries, then there should be some incentivization in the short turn for domestic workers to pursue these jobs. Wages and salaries will entice this labor force; however, these will remain sticky in the short-term. Government policy makers should consider incentivization programs such as stimulus checks, debt forgiveness, or other benefits to solve what could potentially be a dramatic labor shortage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/01/trump-california-newsom-immigrant-workers.html

Cook to sue Trump over order to fire her from Federal Reserve

President Donald Trump announced the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, one of seven members of the Fed’s Board of Governors. Trump claims she made false statements on mortgage documents. 

Cook responded by stating that she would not resign and would be pursuing legal action. The push to remove Cook highlights the broader pattern of pressure by Trump on the Fed as he also publicly expressed frustration with the Fed’s reluctance to aggressively cut interest rates. If this removal is upheld, it could weaken the institutional autonomy of the Fed, allowing for even more executive political influence over monetary policy. The uncertainty from this action could unsettle financial markets.

Article link: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx275n8gx0ro

How the Fed losing its independence could affect Americans' everyday lives

 Dangers to Average Americans If the Fed Is No Longer Independent

President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the first such removal attempt in the Fed's 112-year history, has prompted economists to warn that the Fed's independence is seriously threatened.

The Fed may be under pressure to cut short-term rates, which could lead to higher inflation and ultimately higher interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and business credit.

Independent central banks are crucial because they are freed from political pressure to make tough choices that ultimately reduce inflation. Politically controlled Feds have the potential to overstimulate the economy and ultimately lead to instability.

The U.S. economic system may move away from market-driven capitalism and toward a model where monetary policy is more politically determined if the Fed loses its independence. This would erode the checks and balances in place to prevent unchecked inflation by blurring the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. In time, this might:

• Undermine confidence in the dollar as a reliable worldwide reserve currency.

• Reduced confidence in investments as companies worry about unpredictable, politically driven rate changes.

• Change the government-market power dynamic so that politicians have more influence over economic cycles, rather than the Fed serving as a stabilizer.

To put it briefly, the United States would risk shifting from an economy based on rules, where predictability is provided by independent institutions, to one that is susceptible to transient political agendas.

Link

Kenya Airways’ Financial Struggles

Kenya Airways, often dubbed the “Pride of Africa,” has faced significant financial turbulence in 2025. The airline reported a pretax loss of 12.17 billion shillings (about $94 million) in the first half of the year, a dramatic reversal from a 634 million shilling profit recorded in the same period in 2024. This shift underscores not only operational challenges but also structural vulnerabilities within the national carrier.

A major factor behind the losses was the grounding of several Boeing 787-8 aircraft, which disrupted passenger operations and limited the airline’s ability to serve profitable long-haul routes. This technical setback reduced passenger numbers and slashed revenue during a period when global demand for air travel has been steadily recovering. High maintenance costs, coupled with fluctuations in global fuel prices, further squeezed margins.

In response, Kenya Airways has set an ambitious plan to raise at least $500 million in new capital by early 2026. The strategy centers on fleet modernization and expansion, which the airline views as critical to regaining competitiveness against regional and global rivals. By upgrading to more fuel efficient aircrafts and expanding their routes, they hopes to boost passenger numbers, cut operating costs, and reposition itself as a major hub carrier in East Africa.

The Key to Africa's Economic Integration

      African businesses have been struggling to keep up with the regional markets. The presence of previous colonialism has kept small and medium enterprises from expanding. This has created a halt in Africa's economic integration, as international trade and associated risks have continued to arise as an issue for trade finance stability. There have been small steps taken to increase intra-African trade by the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has a goal to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Since 2021, 49 countries have approved and continued to follow the removal of intracontinental trade barriers; thus, intra-African trade reached $192.2 billion by December 2023. Documenting a $5.9 billion increase since 2022, showing a positive increase in trade finance initiatives.

    Economists have put together a strategic list of initiatives to help African countries compete in global markets and support the growth of sustainable development. Investments in financial ecosystems could look like more infrastructure in roads, digital networks, and ports. However, based on findings from Afreximbank, the investment would have to amount to $130 - $170 billion annually to meet their fullest economic potential. There needs to be a movement towards partnerships with private-sector actors and development-finance institutions and the African government. If private investments had lower risk rates and access to concessional finance, there could be real change within Africa's economy. 

Article: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trade-finance-key-to-africa-economic-integration-growth-by-gwen-mwaba-2025-08

Why Netflix and Spotify Keep Raising Prices

    In early 2025, both Netflix and Spotify announced new subscription price increases that are already affecting millions of customers. Netflix raised the cost of its ad-free Standard and Premium plans in the United States, explaining that higher rates are needed to keep funding original programming while also covering the rising costs of production and operations. For years, streaming companies relied on low monthly prices to pull customers away from cable, but now that many households consider these services essential, providers see more room to push rates higher without losing too many subscribers.
    Spotify followed a similar path, expanding Premium price increases across much of Europe, Africa, and Latin America, moving the monthly cost from €10.99 to €11.99. These changes show the financial pressure facing major platforms and how dependent they are on customer loyalty to absorb additional costs. It also raises a bigger question about demand: how much longer will people accept paying higher prices before deciding that the cost no longer matches the value of what they’re getting?

Sources:
https://www.theverge.com/2025/1/21/24348682/netflix-price-increase-earnings-q4-2024 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/spotify-stock-prices-wall-street-213d4480 

Japan’s economy grows at a 1% pace in the last quarter despite Trump’s higher tariffs

https://apnews.com/article/japan-tariffs-trump-economy-gdp-4ed873e4162c84dafc3befc81b49c6e6 

In the most recent quarter, the Japanese economy grew 1% better than expected and was primarily boosted by exports. This comes despite the tariffs that were implemented by President Donald Trump. The U.S. imposed a 15% tax on all imports from Japan. However, this is a drop in tariffs for some products that were being taxed at 25%. The tariffs of 15% are still higher than the tax before the tariffs, but the drop from 25 to 15% enables more growth opportunities. Japan's GDP grew 0.3% compared to the previous fiscal quarter, which beat the analysts' estimations. Japan has experienced 5 straight quarters with fiscal growth, and a lot of the growth can be attributed to the 90-day break in tariffs, which allowed for businesses to rush ship products. This increased the country's exports by 2% during the break in tariffs.

The growth can also be attributed to the increased number of tourists visiting, which has helped economically by boosting economic growth. However, there has been a sense of resentment among residents as they now have to deal with more foreign visitors and the aspects that come with that. In addition, capital investment increased by 1.3% which is helping drive growth at a faster rate, but consumer spending remained weak at a 0.2% growth. With there being growth seen in the economy, Japan's central bank may go ahead to raise the benchmark interest rate to help cap inflation.  

The Sluggish Renaissance of U.S. Manufacturing

    Due to shifts from a manufacturing market to a service industry in the economy, the manufacturing industry has seen a downward trend in employment rates and its portion in its sector. As of the end of 2024, there are roughly 12.6 million people employed in the manufacturing business. This takes up around about 9.3% of total private sector employment. For reference, in 1960, manufacturing took up a sound 33.7%. In more recent years however, these numbers have stayed consistently around 12 million people, defying the constant downward trend in the past. 

Manufacturing employment has been slowly recovering, pushed by an upswing in the number of manufacturing facilities. Over the past decade, manufacturing employment grew by 5% (roughly 12.6 million people) and facilities grew 19% (roughly 401,000 facilities). About half of the sector’s increase in employment over the past 10 years was driven by the food manufacturing subindustry. That subindustry also contributed the most to the increase in manufacturing establishments during this period. 

source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/sluggish-renaissance-us-manufacturing

Economy U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q2, with growth even stronger than initially thought

A recent analysis shows that the United States economy expanded 3.3% in Q2. This was a growth that was stronger than which many thought. Gross Domestic Product rose 3.3% in the quarter 2 period from April to June. The U.S. consumer spending rose to 1.6% with the initial estimate being 1.4%, this helped pushed the higher number. Critically, a measure called final sales to to private domestic rose to 1.9%, this was an increase from the previous number of 1.2%. The Federal Reserve watches this closely from the indication of demand and sales that occur within the United States borders, this is extremely important taking in the consideration of the uncertainty impact that Trump's tariffs create. 

In the first half of this year GDP has grown 2.1%, which is about a 1% increase in each quarter. The economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter which was largely impacted by the rush of imports. Although, there is some good news. Consumption of American's is higher than what was originally thought to be. American's are still willing to spend regardless of the uncertainty and tariffs. Heather Long, the chief economists at the Navy Federal Credit Union stated, “Going forward, the economy is likely to stay in this slower speed mode with spending and growth around 1.5% as the tariffs become more visible to American consumers.” 

With the first couple months of the third quarter in the books the economy is growing at a 2.2% pace in Q3. 

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/us-economy-grew-3point3percent-in-q2-growth-was-stronger-than-initially-thought.html

Posted by: Chanden Lee at 8/31/2025 12:24:00PM

Trump tariffs that are voided by; and ones that are safe from Friday’s appeals court ruling

 A federal appeals court just ruled that most of President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” are illegal because he went beyond his legal power as president. These tariffs were huge. They covered almost 70% of U.S. imports and charged other countries, like Mexico, Canada, China, India, and Brazil, up to 50% on goods. The court said only Congress can create taxes like tariffs, not the president. For now, the tariffs will stay in place until mid-October while Trump appeals to the Supreme Court. If the Court agrees with the ruling, Trump can still put tariffs in place but only in smaller amounts and for shorter time periods using a different law.

Some of Trump’s tariffs are still safe. His taxes on steel and aluminum (called Section 232 tariffs) are not affected by the ruling and were recently expanded to cover more products. These tariffs are likely to stay even if the Supreme Court removes the bigger ones. Other tariffs that started during Trump’s first term on China also remain, along with a new rule that removes the $800 “free pass” for small imports, meaning even cheap goods from overseas now face extra costs. This all means Trump might shift to using more focused, industry-specific tariffs instead of taxing almost all imports.

This is a picture of President Donald Trump during the signing of executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 25, 2025

 This case shows how economic policy is shaped by the balance of power between the president, Congress, and the courts  and how trade policy can have big effects on global markets and domestic businesses.

Source : https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/30/trump-trade-tariffs-appeals.html 

Tame US Job Growth Expected in Approach to Fed Meeting

 Vince Golle and Craig Stirling, Journalists at Bloomberg, Discuss US Job growth expectations, along with payroll expectations, and international trade effects in this article. Bloomberg analysts are expecting hiring to remain limited as Bloomberg is projecting 75,000 jobs added in the month of August, while unemployment to tick up to an almost four year high. If this ends up being the case this would mark the slowest payroll growth since the throes of the COVID pandemic in 2020. Since August of 2022, the US unemployment rate has consistently risen from 3.6% in August of 2022 to 4.3% currently, and Bloomberg analysts are expecting unemployment to continue to tick higher in August. 

Trade tensions internationally were a theme of this article. Golle and Stirling demonstrated Trumps trade policy affects on other countries/regions. Canada saw its first GDP contraction in nearly two years this past fiscal quarter, showing the negative effects that Tariffs have on Canadas largest trading partner. 

Economists predict steady growth in Australia, and muted growth in South Korea, both countries will report many various fiscal reports in the coming week. Japans trade exports have reached an all time low in the past 15 months with exports down to -2.6% for the month of June, a stark contrast to the 12% surge in February.

across the EMEA conditions are relatively stable. No important monetary policy changes are expected at the upcoming ECB meeting in September. Inflation remains steady, and near the ECB's target of 2%. A notable statistic will be the German Factory order draws which may add some key insight to US tariff effects on German and European manufacturing. 

Article Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-30/tame-us-job-growth-expected-in-approach-to-fed-meeting?srnd=phx-economics-v2 

US Tourism Industry in Tour-moil

 The Economist raises the issue that due to all the bad publicity in regards to the Trump administration, that foreigners are avoiding trips to the USA -- therefore causing the tourism industry to suffer. The world has been seeing the Administration harming various apartments, putting alliances into question, increased deportation, and sending the national guard into cities. Therefore causing foreigners not wanting to visit the USA. 

"With most of the summer season now visible, the trend is harder to miss. Using data from America’s International Trade Administration, a government agency, The Economist finds that foreign arrivals at American airports are down by 3.8% compared with 2024, or 1.3m fewer people. The slump was steepest between May and July, when arrivals fell by 5.5% year on year. That bucked the global trend as tourism finally recovered to pre-pandemic levels."

This is in sharp contrast to Americans departing for travel on a year to year basis, which is up nearly 3%. " In 2024 some 22% more Americans flew abroad than foreigners came in; this year so far the gap has widened to 27%."

Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/08/26/have-foreign-tourists-really-avoided-america-this-year 

Cracks in the Entry-Level Job Market for Gen Z Graduates

 A recent analysis shows that in July 2025, 13.4% of unemployed Americans were new labor force entrants, the highest share since 1988, highlighting the strain on the job market for newcomers. Despite the overall U.S. Employment rate holding at around 4.2%, this spike among job-seekers entering the workforce signals a deepening challenge for those without prior experience.

This sharp entry-level squeeze suggests that the traditional college premium —the idea that earning a degree nearly guarantees an employment advantage —is under growing pressure in today's economic climate. As hiring slows and employers become more cautious, even well-educated newcomers find their path into the labor market blocked by low turnover and a freeze on entry-level roles.

Article: Gen Z Grads Are Entering The Toughest Job Market In Decades by Allwork.Space News Team

Link: https://allwork.space/2025/08/gen-z-grads-are-entering-the-toughest-job-market-in-decades/

July Jobs Report Reveals Cracks in the College Premium

    The July 2025 jobs report shows an abrupt slowdown in the United States labor market. The payroll increased at only an average of 35,000 new positions over the past three months, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The figures may appear insignificant, but they represent an actual shift from the improved labor market of 2019 and the rebound from the pandemic.

    Younger graduates are hit the worst, with 23–27-year-old unemployment rising from 3.25% in 2019 to 4.59% in 2025—a 1.34 percentage point rise, more than double that of other groups. This suggests that the traditional college degree labor market premium is in decline. White-collar employment is also hit, particularly in fields like computer science and media, where unemployment has climbed steeply. The changing labor market is raising questions about stability, education, and employment.

Ozkan, S., & Sullivan, N. (2025, August 25). Recent college grads bear brunt of labor market shifts. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/recent-college-grads-bear-brunt-labor-market-shifts

April US payrolls growth slows before full tariff impact felt

This article breaks down how job growth in April had slowed down. There were 177,000 less jobs added than in March but it was still better than expected. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, so the job market’s holding steady for now. But the real concern is what’s supposed to be coming next. With Trump’s proposed tariffs still in place a lot of businesses are going to be forced to have to less hiring and less investment across the board. Right now though things don’t look too bad but you can definitely feel the uncertainty. The Fed isn’t changing interest rates yet, but if inflation or the job market shifts, that could change too. It feels like we’re in this calm before the storm, and how the tariff situation plays out could really tip the balance either way. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/view-april-us-payrolls-growth-slows-before-full-tariff-impact-felt-2025-05-02/

India could have its ‘Latin America moment’ amid ongoing US–China trade war, says Richard Baldwin

 ​In the article "India could have its ‘Latin America moment’ amid ongoing US–China trade war" from The Indian Express, economist Richard Baldwin draws a historical parallel between Latin America's post-World War II industrialization and India's current economic opportunity. He suggests that, much like Latin America capitalized on Britain's declining manufacturing dominance, India can now leverage the US–China trade tensions to integrate more deeply into global supply chains.​

Baldwin recommends that India adopt World Trade Organization-compliant measures to prevent the dumping of Chinese goods, a potential consequence of the trade war. Simultaneously, he emphasizes the importance of India pursuing additional trade agreements, noting that while the US accounts for only 15% of global imports, the remaining 85% presents significant opportunities for Indian exports. By strategically navigating these dynamics, India could enhance its role in global trade and manufacturing.​

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/india-latin-america-moment-us-china-trade-war-richard-baldwin-9967557/

Trump's Economic Policies Disrupt Markets

    During a period of economic uncertainty surrounding the Great Recession and its aftermath, Wall Street firms began raising the likelihood of another U.S. recession within the coming year. These warnings were largely based on expected declines in consumer spending and business investment, two key drivers of economic growth. In response to these concerns, the Trump administration took a firm stance on trade, asserting that short-term economic pain could ultimately lead to long-term gains through the renegotiation of international trade deals.

    At the same time, tensions arose between the White House and the Federal Reserve. President Trump openly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, expressing a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. While Trump stated he had "no intention" of firing Powell, he continued to apply public pressure on the central bank. Economists voiced concern that such political interference could compromise the Fed's independence, potentially weakening its ability to manage inflation and economic stability effectively.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trumps-economic-policies-shake-norms-markets-uncertainty-looms/story?id=121125856

China getting hit with effects from tarrifs

 In an ever escalating trade war, China has started to feel the effects of the Trump tariffs. As the production of US bound products pause, China cannot produce as much.

They are beginning to look to new markets, but that takes time. In the mean time, workers are getting sent home because there is just no more work for them to do. It has been noted by some economists these tariffs on China will have a worse impact that COVID-19.

Companies have turned to live-streaming to try and get their products sold. While not as guaranteed as an export, the companies are trying their best to maintain some cash flow to keep their businesses afloat.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/28/chinese-factories-stop-production-eye-new-markets-as-us-tariffs-hit.html

Trump tariffs will hurt lower income Americans more than the rich

 

New studies show President Trump's tariffs will hurt low-income Americans more than the rich. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, in 2026, the poorest 20% of U.S. households (earning less than $29,000) will see a tax hike equal to 6.2% of their income. In contrast, the top 1% (earning over $915,000) will only see a 1.7% rise. Economists warn that tariffs raise prices on everyday items like food and clothing, hitting low-income families the hardest. Yale’s Budget Lab found the burden on lower-income groups is about 2.5 times greater than that on higher earners. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs might cause a “one-time price adjustment” but promised tax cuts are coming to help working families.

Trump’s current tariffs are wide-reaching. A 10% tariff is placed on most imports, with Mexico and Canada facing 25% tariffs on select goods. Chinese products are hit even harder with a 145% tariff. Specific items like steel, aluminum, and cars carry a 25% duty. Retailers are already raising prices, showing that tariffs are not just abstract policies, but they are affecting daily life. As the White House explores new trade deals and exemptions, the real question remains: Will future policies help fix the growing burden on American consumers? What do you think? Are tariffs helping or hurting the economy?

source: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/25/trump-tariffs-taxes-poor-rich.html

Trump's Handling of the Economy is Hurting His Approval Ratings

Recent polling shows that President Trump’s approval rating is falling as he approaches 100 days into his second term, and his handling of the economy appears to be a major reason for the decline. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, the CNN/SSRS poll, and the NBC News Stay Tuned poll have the president’s approval rating at 39%, 41%, and 45% respectively, a sharp drop from when he entered the White House in January. A large factor in this drop is his handling of the economy. The Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 72% of Americans believe that it is “very or somewhat likely that Trump’s economic policies will lead to a recession in the short term”. The polls also show that a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of trade and tariffs. President Trump’s approval ratings are very partisan, with a majority of Republicans approving and a majority of Democrats disapproving, while 58% of independents disapprove. It will be important to see how these numbers effect the decisions Trump makes in the near future, especially with the midterms coming up in 2026.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/27/trump-approval-rating-economy-immigration-polls.html

Public Outcry Reverses Cuts to Women's Health Initiative

The Trump administration’s decision to restore funding to the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) comes as a huge relief to women’s health researchers and advocates across the country. After initially announcing plans to cut funding—a move that shocked and outraged the scientific community—public backlash was swift and intense, ultimately pressuring the administration to reverse its decision. This is welcome news for a study that has made groundbreaking contributions for decades, following tens of thousands of women and transforming what we know about aging, chronic disease, and women’s health. Over the years, the WHI has led to major shifts in medical practice, such as reevaluating the belief that hormone therapy protects the heart, resulting in safer, more effective care. Without continued funding, decades of invaluable data and future lifesaving discoveries would have been at risk.

The restoration of funding highlights the critical importance of protecting long-term research, especially studies that address historical gaps where women’s health was often overlooked. Scientists leading the WHI described the reversal as “thrilling”—and for good reason. With over 40,000 women still participating, the study continues to offer rare and crucial insights into chronic conditions like Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, and heart disease. Keeping the WHI alive isn’t just about maintaining a database; it’s about ensuring a healthier future for women and future generations. Because of public pressure and the researchers who refused to stay silent, this once-in-a-lifetime study will continue to change lives for years to come.

Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/04/24/nx-s1-5376473/hhs-restores-funding-for-womens-health-initiative#:~:text=In%20a%20reversal%2C%20the%20Trump%20administration%20restores%20funding%20for%20women's%20health%20study,-Listen%C2%B7%203%3A23&text=The%20Trump%20administration%20is%20restoring,decision%20that%20shocked%20medical%20researchers.

Purchasing Surge Prior to Tariffs

In March, companies rushed to make purchases of durable goods in advance of tariff implementations. Durable goods experienced a 9.2% increase, about nine times the increase in February, and six times the forecasted increase for March. Non-defense aircraft and parts surged 139%, accounting for the majority of this increase, followed by transportation equipment, automobiles and appliances. 

The increase within the durable goods industry for April will be interesting, as the 90 day pause on tariffs most likely halted this surge. It will be intriguing to analyze the future impact this may have on companies financially. Did companies increase their debt load significantly in an attempt to save money in the long run? If so, how will the sudden increase in debt impact operations? These are questions that not only companies need to consider, but investors as well. The ripple effect of Tariffs is much more significant than some may recognize, and uncertainty during the current 90 day pause is adding fuel to the fire. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/orders-for-big-ticket-items-like-autos-and-appliances-surged-9point2percent-in-march-in-rush-to-beat-tariffs.html 

As California becomes worlds 4th largest economy, it's residents still worry

This week California took Japan's spot as the worlds 4th largest economy, as it's GDP reached $4.1 trillion. Governor Newsom praised his states economy, while warning about the possible negative effects of Trumps tarrifs on their growing economy. However, Californian's have gripes with more than just national policy, as many still grapple with the effects of the wildfires- and the possibility that they will hit again. 

When the February fires hit, one of the big concerns was the ability for insurance companies to pay out that much damage. This led some to suggest novel economic ideas like insurance companies needing their own insurance- and others to look to more preventative measures. Since then, however, there has not been much progress in either directions and according to a new survey from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Californians are still worried. Residents are more likely to blame insurance companies and the government for the problems in housing insurance, and are upset over the inability of these groups to limit risk. 56% say they support subsidies for home owners to help mitigate this risk, but only 41% are willing to pay more taxes to achieve this. It seems little progress has been made politically or elsewhere to broker a solution to this increasingly frequent problem.

Sources: https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/25/business/california-japan-economy-tariffs-intl-hnk/index.html 

https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/siepr-survey-californians-weigh-home-insurance-crisis-economic-outlook

 

Alphabet jumps 3% as search, advertising units show resilient growth:

Alphabet’s first-quarter report on April 25, 2025 sent the stock up roughly 3 percent after the company topped Wall Street expectations and demonstrated that its core search and advertising engines remain robust even amid AI-driven competition and tariff uncertainty. Revenue grew 12 percent year-over-year to $90.23 billion (vs. $89.12 billion expected), while diluted EPS jumped to $2.81, lifting net income 46 percent to $34.54 billion. Advertising sales climbed 8.5 percent to $66.89 billion, with “Search and other” up 9.8 percent to $50.7 billion and YouTube bringing in $8.93 billion, just shy of forecasts. Management noted that eliminating the U.S. de minimis import exemption in May could create a modest headwind for Asia-Pacific ad spending, but said it is too early to gauge the broader impact of new tariffs. Meanwhile, Google’s AI Overviews feature has expanded to 1.5 billion monthly users, and analysts argue the market is still underestimating the monetization potential of this tool and AI-related cloud demand. Overall, the results reassured investors that Alphabet’s legacy businesses are holding up while its aggressive generative-AI rollout opens new growth runways.

Link

Trump versus Education (Redux: Public Schools)

    Three Federal Judges have blocked Presidents Trump's attempt to stop schools with D.E.I programing from recieveing funding, calling it an overstep, and pointing to a lack of clear definition as to what D.E.I programs meant. The attempt- which was through a Dear College letter suggesting K-12 schools would have to go through a certification program to make sure D.E.I was eliminated- is another action in a long list of efforts by the administration to fight Diveristy Equity and Inclusion programs through withholding funds, which the courts are continuing to fight. These cuts would likely affect programs like Title 1 which help the most underprivledged youth in the system, and hurt many districts budgets severely. The judges who ruled against it cited issues of free speech being restricted, and worry over what could be lumped in with "Diversity Equity Inclusion". Federal Judge Landya McCafferty was the first to issue an injunction, and is an Obama appointee, however the two other judges were appointees under President Trump. Many have filed lawsuits against Trump's letter, including the NCAAP and the National Education Association. It remains to be seen whether it will be possible for Trump to use this tactics in the future, considering similar lawsuits on the collegiate level from Harvard, and the Supreme Courts lack of capitulation to Trump.

Sources: https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5265780-judge-trump-dei-public-schools-k-12-colleges-mcmahon/

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/us/trump-public-school-funds-dei.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20250424&instance_id=153224&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=217822652&segment_id=196657&user_id=4e911fca78fe02d77f9a84a8b21d7c45

Japan weighs using U.S. rice imports as tariff negotiation tool with Trump

 Japan is considering increasing imports of U.S. rice as a strategic move in trade negotiations with former President Donald Trump, should he return to office. Currently, Japan imports about 770,000 metric tons of rice annually tariff-free under a WTO agreement, with the U.S. accounting for nearly half. Trump previously criticized Japan’s rice tariffs, often citing inflated figures. To ease tensions, Japan may propose a new import quota of 70,000 tons of U.S. rice—a measure previously included in the abandoned TPP and postponed in the 2019 U.S.-Japan trade deal. However, the idea is politically sensitive, as domestic rice farmers strongly support the ruling party. Additionally, rice prices in Japan remain high, raising concerns about food security and dependence on foreign imports.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/04/23/economy/rice-minimum-access/

Trump's Battle vs. Fed Powell

President Trump has increased his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling for immediate interest rate cuts but stating he has “no intention” of firing Powell. Legally, it’s highly uncertain whether Trump could actually remove Powell from office. The Federal Reserve Act allows a president to remove Fed board members only “for cause,” which is generally understood to mean serious misconduct, not policy disagreements. There’s no clear legal precedent for firing a Fed chair over differences in economic policy, and such a move would almost certainly trigger a lengthy court battle, possibly reaching the Supreme Court. Powell and most legal experts maintain that the Fed’s independence is a crucial safeguard for the economy, and undermining it could destabilize financial markets.

If the Fed were to cut interest rates as Trump wants, borrowing would become cheaper for consumers and businesses, encouraging spending on homes, cars, and investments. This could help boost economic growth and support jobs. However, lower rates also mean savers earn less interest, and if the economy is already facing inflation risks, rate cuts could make price increases worse. Trump’s new tariffs complicate the picture even further: tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, pushing up inflation while also potentially slowing economic growth. This puts the Fed in a tough spot, forced to balance the risk of higher inflation from tariffs against the need to support the economy, making decisions about rate cuts even more difficult and politically charged.

Read the article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/us/politics/trump-jerome-powell-fed.html

Tesla Tumbles as Musk Returns

    During a Tesla earnings call on April 22nd Elon Musk made it clear that once May arrives he will be taking a step back from his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk told investors that his goal is to be "doing DOGE things" only 1-2 days a week. He will be stepping back from his highly controversial role in the administration to focus back on his own business ventures, such as Tesla, which has seen massive hits to their profits and sales ever since President Trump came into office. 

    Many are saying that his role in DOGE is a large reason that Tesla has not been so successful, Musk made clear that regardless of how his business is doing people need to look into the far future. While Tesla is less prone to tariffs when compared to their automotive competitors due to having lots of factories in the United States they are still struggling. In April, Tesla reported that it had suffered the largest drop in sales in their history delivering 50,000 fewer vehicles in Q1 of 2025 than Q1 of 2024. This is also being seen in Tesla stock. After election day their stock nearly doubled, reaching an all time high in December, with investors believing in the Trump administration possibly implementing Tesla-friendly policies. At this point, Tesla stock (TSLA) has fallen nearly 50% from that high as of April 23rd. 

    This negative performance by Tesla does not seem to have much to do with their actual operations, but instead the man who is behind it all. There have been numerous protests being directed in both Trump and Musk's way that are completely against everything they have done so far. Many people are starting to not buy Tesla's products due to Musk being the face of the company. It will be interesting to see how this will impact Tesla's long-term gains and whether these losses will keep happening with the role Musk has played in DOGE so far.

Link to Article: https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/22/business/tesla-reports-disappoint-drop-in-revenue-and-profits/index.html 

Vietnam at a Crossroads: Responding to the 2025 U.S. Tariff Shock with Strategic Resilience

Trade wars have become an important way to change global business. The U.S.-China tariff disputes are now affecting Vietnam, with a 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports. This move, meant to fix trade imbalances, is a big challenge for Vietnam’s economy, which relies on exports. However, this tariff shock also offers a chance for Vietnam to rethink its strategy.

The 46% tariff targets sectors that make up more than 80% of Vietnam’s exports to the U.S., including electronics, textiles, footwear, furniture, and agriculture. Vietnam’s $70.5 billion in electronics exports face higher costs, which could hurt investment and jobs. The $46.2 billion textiles and footwear sectors could see factory closures and job losses, especially for low-income workers and women. As the top exporter of wood furniture, the $28.3 billion furniture industry may face disruptions. Agricultural exports, like coffee and cashews worth $8.5 billion, could become less competitive in the U.S.

Instead of retaliating, Vietnam has taken a calm approach, focusing on legal methods and working with other countries. Decree 73/2025/NĐ-CP was introduced to improve trade by lowering import taxes on U.S. goods, showing Vietnam’s commitment to fair trade. The country is also using trade agreements like CPTPP, EVFTA, and RCEP, focusing on cooperation instead of conflict.

Vietnam now has two paths to choose from: defending its market share in the competitive U.S. market (Red Ocean) or creating new, high-value industries (Blue Ocean). In the Red Ocean, Vietnam is negotiating for tariff relief, offering tax cuts to exporters, and trying to protect its current markets. In the Blue Ocean, it’s working to upgrade its manufacturing, focusing on high-value sectors like semiconductors, renewable energy, and digital technology.

The 2025 U.S. tariff shock is more than just a trade issue—it’s a key moment for Vietnam’s economy. While the country has grown by relying on exports, this challenge provides an opportunity to diversify and become less dependent on global market changes. By using both defensive and innovative strategies, Vietnam can handle the situation and come out stronger, becoming a leader in the global economy.

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/04/15/vietnam-at-a-crossroads-responding-to-the-2025-u-s-tariff-shock-with-strategic-resilience/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Defense Against the Dark Arts

Amidst the promises from the Trump administration to commence legal, financial and political attacks on academic institutions of all levels, schools in the Big 10 decided they needed to take proactive measures. The faculty senate at Rutgers University in New Jersey began the initiative and since all 18 schools have joined. The alliance serves as an agreement for all the schools to band together if President Trump were to single out any of the institutions in any manner. Schools are set to provide legal counsel, public affair officials, and create a fund that will be used to provide "immediate and strategic support" (Rutgers Official). 

Trump's War on Regulations

 The Trump administration seems hellbent on de-regulating as much as possible. Some of the regulations that he wants to roll back are ones that help his voter base. An example of this would be eliminating regulations that protect coal miners heath from the dangerous fumes that they are exposed to daily. Despite constant warnings from health officials and academics, the Trump administration continues to move forward. We have learned in class that government regulation is used in capitalism to help address market failures. Seeing such a basic misunderstanding of economics at the highest level of government is incredibly disappointing. 

Source:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qaJo7iX8ItPmay52k7w1lf-c2WhygHv6/view

Deportations Down in Texas: What the Supreme Court is Doing About It

 This Saturday the Supreme Court blocked any deportations of any Venezuelans held in northern Texas under an18th century wartime law. They decided to direct the Trump administration not to remove anyone held in the detention center until further notice. The high court decided to act in an emergency appeal from the American Civil Liberties Union because it appeared that immigration authorities were moving to restart removals under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. They had said earlier that deportations could proceed only if those about to be removed had a chance to argue their case in court and were also given enough time to contest their pending removal. Lawyer, Lee Gelernt, was relieved that this act was temporarily blocked saying that these individuals were in imminent danger of spending the rest of their lives in a brutal Salvadoran prison without having had any due process. After two federal judges refused to step in as lawyers for the men, a desperate legal campaign was launched to prevent their deportation. Additionally, the ACLU has already sued to block deportations of two Venezuelans held in the Bluebonnet facility and sought an order which demands removal of any immigrants in the region under the Alien Enemies Act.  This act has only been used three other times in U.S. history. World War II was the most recent which held Japanese-American civilians in internment camps. As the men were being accused of being members of the Tren de Aragua gang, the Trump's administration contended that the act gave them power to swiftly remove immigrants they identified as members of the gang. Reading about this situation, is a little confusing because there are so many sides and each one has their own reasons as to why they think they are right. I think it will be interesting to see how it is handled, and especially how this will set the tone for the next four years in regard to immigration and boarder control.

For more information on the Subject go to: Supreme Courts blocks, for now, new deportations under Alien Enemies Act

Global trade outlook has ‘deteriorated sharply’ amid Trump tariff uncertainty, WTO warns

    WTO has sharply downgraded its global trade outlook for 2025, now projecting a 0.2% decline in merchandise trade instead of the previously forecasted 2.7% growth. This deterioration is largely attributed to escalating U.S. tariffs under President Trump and intensifying trade tensions with China, which could lead to an 81% drop in bilateral trade between the two nations. The WTO warns that this decoupling risks fragmenting the global economy into rival blocs, potentially reducing global GDP by up to 7% in the long term. Smaller and emerging economies, which rely heavily on international trade, are expected to be the most affected.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/global-trade-outlook-for-2025-has-deteriorated-sharply-wto-warns.html