Top Social Security Official Steps Down Over Disagreement with DOGE

Michelle King, the top official at the Social Security Administration, has stepped down after refusing to grant Musk's Department of Government Efficiency access to highly sensitive records. There may be concern about implications of allowing DOGE to access sensitive information such as bank information, Social Security numbers, and even medical records. Trump cracking down on fraud is evident and the rationale behind it is understandable, but the Social Security Administrations inspector general found that only 0.84% of payments between 2015 and 2022 were improper.

It will be interesting to see if these tensions will be quickly resolved or if this could bring about an even larger debate over privacy rights and governmental oversight. I believe that the administration will face increased scrutiny as this issue continues to unfold. As for us, the public, it will also be important to remain vigilant and aware about any changes to how personal information is handled by the government and its agencies. 

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/top-social-security-official-steps-down-after-disagreement-with-doge-over-sensitive-data.html

U.S. Consumers Stockpile Goods in Response to Trump’s Tariffs

 A recent CreditCards.com report highlights that one in five Americans is stockpiling essential goods in response to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. These tariffs, targeting imports from China, Europe, and Mexico, are intended to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and promote domestic manufacturing. However, the resulting fear of rising prices has led to increased bulk buying at retailers like Walmart and Costco, particularly for non-perishable foods, medical supplies, and household items.

The psychological impact of tariffs is also noteworthy. Many Americans recall the shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this past experience has amplified stockpiling behavior. Experts believe this could create a self-fulfilling cycle, where the fear of rising costs triggers increased demand, leading to temporary shortages and actual price hikes. Retailers have also responded by limiting bulk purchases on high-demand products, similar to the rationing seen in 2020.

Economists and businesses warn that these tariffs could worsen inflation by raising consumer prices. Industries like automobiles, technology, and pharmaceuticals are already facing higher costs for imported components, which may soon be passed on to consumers. The Federal Reserve has raised concerns that tariff-induced inflation could delay anticipated interest rate cuts in 2025.

Policymakers face the challenge of balancing protectionist trade policies with economic stability. If stockpiling and rising costs continue, it could strain supply chains, weaken consumer confidence, and further fuel inflation, all of which would have long-term economic consequences.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumers-rush-buy-trump-tariffs-fuel-stockpiling-report-finds-2025-02-18/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Miner Glencore considers ditching London Stock Exchange listing

    Glencore, one of the world's largest mining and commodity trading companies, is considering moving its primary stock market listing from the London Stock Exchange to the New York Stock Exchange. This strategic move is driven by the desire to access a broader investor base, improve valuation, and enhance liquidity. The potential shift comes as Glencore faces declining profits due to lower commodity prices, impacting its financial performance. If implemented, this relocation would be a significant blow to London's financial market, which has been struggling with high-profile departures recently.

    This decision is also influenced by the fact that U.S. markets typically offer higher valuations for commodity firms compared to European exchanges. Additionally, Glencore's considerations follow similar moves by other multinational corporations seeking better market conditions and investor engagement in the U.S.

    The company's review is still in its early stages, and no final decision has been made. However, if Glencore proceeds with this plan, it would be the latest in a series of significant exits from the London Stock Exchange, highlighting ongoing challenges for the UK financial market post-Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/19/glencore-ditch-london-stock-exchange-new-york

 

European stocks are outperforming their U.S. counterparts — but for how long?

European stocks have kicked off the year with surprising vigor, significantly outpacing their U.S. counterparts in both January and February. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 6.3% in January, compared to the S&P 500’s 2.7%, and has continued this momentum into February, posting a 3.3% gain versus the S&P 500’s 1.25% as of February 18. Analysts attribute Europe’s strength to several factors: lingering hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (which would lower risk premiums and stabilize energy prices), fiscal expansion in Germany, and the passage of France’s contentious 2025 budget—all of which give investors confidence in Europe’s economic prospects. Meanwhile, the U.S. market grapples with tariff-driven inflation concerns and a Federal Reserve that appears to be on hold, in contrast to European central banks that are leaning toward rate cuts. Earnings revisions in Europe have also been notably positive, a sign that has historically led to outperformance in the months ahead. However, some strategists warn that this advantage may prove short-lived; while Europe’s recent run has been impressive, annual results over the last decade, barring 2022, have typically ended with U.S. markets on top. With U.S. corporate earnings continuing to show robust surprises and Europe’s economic data far from universally strong, investors remain cautious about whether the current outperformance can be maintained throughout the year. 

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/europe-stocks-are-outperforming-the-us-this-year.html

What is Going on with Columbus's Housing Market?

    Looking into 2025, there are definitely some notable trends and economic factors that will influence central Ohio’s housing market. Compared to last year, Columbus saw steady demand, moderate price growth, and a dynamic mix of housing options making it “one of the best places to invest in real estate in the US.” Because of its affordability, job growth, and strategic location, Columbus’s market has remained very strong despite rising inflation. Increase in demand has caused a 3.3% rise in housing prices in one year from 2023 to 2024. While the median sale price of a home is around $315,000, prices differ based on different factors like proximity to downtown, access to amenities, and local demand. Because of the higher demand and tight housing inventory, listings are on the lower side compared to other years causing heavy market competition. Often buyers will encounter multiple-offer scenarios causing sales in high-demand neighborhoods to skyrocket. Contractors are trying to keep up with the growing demand, but rising material costs, labor shortages, and zoning restrictions have put limits on the pace of new development. Recently Columbus has experienced a slowdown in the average number of days a listing is on the market (26 days from 22 days) which suggests that 2025 may see a steadier demand for buyers and an increase in housing supply. Although this is promising, we are only a month and a half into the new year and a lot can change from now until December 2025. I think it will be interesting to see how the new industrialization that we are expecting to see in the next couple of years will impact the supply and demand of housing in the future. If you want to look at more in-depth analysis and neighborhood specific data, I suggest looking at the article linked below.

Columbus Housing Market Analysis & Forecast 

 

Why Unemployment is Rising in DC

 With President Trump moving to fire thousands of government workers, DC has seen a large increase in unemployment claims. All this under the claim that these actions will increase government efficiency. On this subject Tom Nichols, a writer for The Atlantic, said "One of the greatest tricks that Donald Trump and Elon Musk ever pulled is to convince millions of people that DOGE, the self-styled Department of Government Efficiency, is about government efficiency." Trump claims that it is about government efficiency and reducing government involvement but why Trump is actually doing this is up to speculation. 

Wholesale Inflation Rose in January More Than Expected

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2025-02-13/wholesale-inflation-rose-in-january-more-than-expected

The recent report on wholesale inflation in January showed a higher than expected rise of 0.4% It's somewhat concerning since it signals that inflation is still not under control. This isn't just about gas and grocery prices anymore but it's a sign that prices are climbing across the board, which could mean more strain on consumers in the months ahead. From my perspective, the Fed is in a tough spot. The aim to get inflation back down to that 2% target looks increasingly challenging. They've been raising interest rates in hopes of cooling the economy, but these figures show that inflation is stubborn and persistent. It's also easy to get frustrated by the impact on everyday people especially those like me in urban areas like New York, where inflation feels more intense. The cost of living is already high, and further price increases only widen the gap. With wages not keeping pace, this rising inflation could feel like a persistent weight on people's finances, making it even harder to achieve real financial security. As we look ahead, the next few months will be crucial to see how these trends unfold and whether the Fed's policies will have the desired effect or if we'll be stuck in this cycle of inflation for longer than we want.

Bank of America CEO Confident in Rates Remaining the Same

    Bank of America CEO, Brian Moynihan, sat down with an interview with CNBC recently. During the interview he was asked about the current status of rate expectations for the near future. He announced that since the start of the year Bank of America members have spent much more throughout the first 40 days of the new year than in 2024.  For comparison, retail spending is up 6% than it was at the same time last year. Moynihan says that this increase is realistically caused by inflation. He claims that there is not more being bought, but instead everything is just more expensive. 

    During the month of January the Fed decided to keep the borrowing rate unchanged at a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also came out and reported hotter-than-expected growth in the consumer price index; in line with the results that Bank of America are finding at the beginning of the year. Due to this "hotter-than-expected growth" in the CPI the markets are forced to recalibrate all rate expectations.  Recently back in September the Fed began to reduce rates for the first time since the pandemic in 2020, but the central bank is currently limited with how much it can reduce due to stubborn inflation.

    Moynihan concluded by stating that due to the rates being restrictive, there has not been enough progress made with inflation to cut the rates. The Bank of America analysts project the same with no rate reductions along with no increases all due to the elevated inflation that we are all experiencing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/bank-of-america-ceo-brian-moynihan-inflation-federal-reserve-rates.html 

Joann Fabrics to Close 500 Stores: The Latest Victim of the Retail Apocalypse

Joann Fabrics, the well known fabric and crafts retailer that began in Hudson, Ohio, is set to close approximately 500 of its stores in 49 states as part of its ongoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. This decision came after the company filed for bankruptcy for the second time in less than a year, stating challenges such as sluggish consumer demand and inventory shortages. The closures will impact thousands of employees, including over 600 at corporate headquarters and additional fulfillment center jobs. 

Going-out-of-business sales are expected to begin on Saturday and may last for several months. While gift cards will still be accepted for in-store purchases, they will not be valid for online shopping. The Ohio-based company, which operates more than 800 stores, declared bankruptcy in March 2024 while reporting over $1 billion in debt. In court documents, Joann blamed higher costs from shipping overseas products and waning consumer demand. The closures are part of a broader restructuring effort aimed at maximizing the business's value as it seeks potential buyers amid rising operational costs and increased competition from larger retailers.

Joann's financial troubles have been clear in its stock performance. After going public in March 2021 at $12 per share, the company's stock steadily declined to below $1 by early 2024. Following its first bankruptcy filing, Joann was delisted from NASDAQ and briefly traded over-the-counter before emerging as a private company in August 2024. However, this restructuring proved insufficient, leading to the current second bankruptcy and massive store closure plan.

Joann now joins a growing list of struggling retailers forced to close locations or file for bankruptcy given changing consumer habits and economic pressures. Companies like Big Lots, Express, Party City, Macy's, JCPenney and Walgreens are also closing hundreds of stores this year as the retail industry faces experiences challenges from inflation, high operating costs, and declining discretionary spending. Over 15,000 stores are expected to close in 2025, more than double last year's total, marking what some call the "retail apocalypse".

Read the article here: Joann moves to close 500 of its stores across the US amid bankruptcy

South Korea's top think tank lowers economic growth projection, citing Trump's tariffs

    The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has revised South Korea's 2025 economic growth forecast downward to 1.6%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from previous estimates. This adjustment is primarily due to the negative impact of increased U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump, which have heightened trade uncertainties, especially in key export sectors like steel, aluminum, and semiconductors. Domestic factors, including slowing consumer spending and political instability following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, have further contributed to the economic downturn. The political crisis has weakened domestic demand and increased external risks, prompting considerations for negotiations and international collaboration to mitigate these challenges.

https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-economy-growth-trump-trade-tariffs-4eef3c90e8ce98a9d7fb5fbfaa3405fb

Japan's trade deficit for digital service rose to record ¥6.6 trillion in 2024

    In 2024, Japan's digital trade deficit soared to a record ¥6.65 trillion, more than tripling since 2014. This deficit encompasses international transactions in digital-related services, including payments for music and video distribution, cloud computing services, and online advertising fees. The surge is attributed to the dominance of global IT giants like Microsoft and Google, leading to faster growth in imports compared to exports in Japan's digital sector. Despite an overall current account surplus of ¥29.26 trillion, bolstered by higher dividends and interest from abroad, the substantial digital trade deficit highlights challenges in Japan's digital economy.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/02/11/economy/japan-digital-trade-deficit/#:~:text=Japan's%20digital%20trade%20deficit%20hit,began%2C%20a%20government%20report%20shows.

Pig Butchering, Read Because It's Not What You Think

    Pig butchering, which is Chinese criminal slang, accounts for over 500 billion dollars stolen a year from victims all around the world. The name is derived from the process itself as the scammers build a sty (scamming center), pick the pig (find a target), raise the pig (gain trust), cut the pig (get their money), and finally butcher the pig (take every last drop of money). This is a fast growing industry that is only going to get more complex with the use of AI. In Singapore, scams have become the most common felony, while Cambodia and Myanmar employ nearly 250,000 scammer alone. Some estimates have the worldwide total of workers in the industry at 1.5 million. 

    Online scamming is being compared to the illegal drug industry, only that its scope is much larger and its operators are much harder to track down. People from all walks of life are possible victims as scammers prey on anyone who has wealth, is lonely, or innocent. Unlike narco states, scam states are much harder to deal with as corruption runs rampant. In many cases, profits from the scam states are used to buy protection from politicians and officials. Forming underground gig economies, scam groups are illusive and often unidentifiable. 

    As the United States and China continue to be in a constant state of disagreement about everything, including the modern era space race that is artificial intelligence. However, this seems like a better time than any to link forces to fight this war. Deep-fakes, voice impersonation and much more are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the future of the internet. China has taken some efforts to curb the problem, but they cannot achieve the end goal alone. The United States has an aging population that is subject to scams just like this, so they need no more incentives to set aside their differences, and move together towards a common good. 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/02/06/the-vast-and-sophisticated-global-enterprise-that-is-scam-inc

Outrage after JD Vance claims judges are not allowed to check executive power

Outrage after JD Vance claims judges are not allowed to check executive power

Link: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/10/jd-vance-judges-trump

Though this article is not inherently economic, I think it poses an interesting question in regard to rule of law which relates to some of our in-class analysis of the United States markets. 

Within this article, the Vice President of the United States JD Vance attempts to analogize judges telling generals how to conduct their armies in tactical strategy to that of judge’s checking executive power. While it is true that the President has the power to issue executive orders, it is also true that judges have the power to check them and strike them down if considered unconstitutional. For our purposes, we only need to turn to article III of the Constitution and if that doesn’t satisfy we have a nation’s history worth of lawful precedent.

This attempt to dismantle the court’s legitimacy in a time where things are already uncertain with a flurry of decisions flying out every day, is certainly just a political jab, but has far greater consequences. The courts and the rule of law derive their power from their legitimacy. Without it, there is truly no power. This is why countries with no rule of law score so low on human development indexes and companies choose to not operate here. Rule of law applies to everyone including the government. 

Additionally, yes it is true that court’s are not immune to folly or human error and thus it is the responsibility of the people to hold them accountable. However, this is not the case. A judge cannot simply strike anything they please down. What they’re doing is using the law and the safeguards/systems in place to ensure that orders comply with laws. 

Furthermore, like most people, Trump has gone out of his way to applaud the Court’s when they rule in his favor. The rule of law is not an institution one can pick and choose. I think the dismantling of Court legitimacy will have serious consequences in terms of the nation’s health and economy.

The Current State of the U.S. Economy

 With news organizations incentivized to create the most inflammatory headlines possible, it is hard to tell what the actual state of the U.S. economy is. GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year (adjusted for inflation). We have experience low unemployment and consistent wage growth. All of these things considered, it is safe to say that currently the economy is in a pretty decent state. However, with mass deportation policies and ever increasing tariffs on the horizon, we can not guarantee the economy will continue to grow at this steady pace. 

Automakers say Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico will cause U.S. car prices to rise.

 

President Trump's proposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could impact the U.S. automotive industry. If tariffs are imposed, the cost of cars imported from these countries would rise, which could lead to higher prices for consumers. Automakers may pass these additional costs onto buyers, increasing vehicle prices. The pause on the 25% tariffs from Canada and Mexico has provided a temporary relief, but the uncertainty of a prolonged period of such tariffs is weighing heavily on auto manufacturers, including Ford. Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford, highlighted the potential negative consequences in his earnings call, indicating that while the company could handle a few weeks of tariffs, anything longer could lead to serious financial repercussions. In addition, Nolan's statement points to the significant and potentially unforeseen consequences of the tariffs, especially when considering the Mexican economy’s heavy dependence on the U.S. for automobile exports. If these tariffs lead to a collapse of the Mexican auto industry, it could trigger mass unemployment and a surge in illegal immigration, particularly in regions close to the U.S. border where many manufacturing jobs are concentrated. Therefore, the situation brings up the complexity of balancing trade policies, domestic manufacturing, and consumer affordability in the auto industry.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-car-prices-automakers-ford/

China's tariffs on $14bn worth of US goods take effect

    China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on $14 billion of U.S. products in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's move to impose an additional 10% on Chinese goods. The escalation heightens the trade war between the world's two biggest economies. Experts think China may be more ready for this resumption of trade hostilities than it was during Trump's first term. In other news, Trump is looking to drastically reduce the Pentagon's budget with the help of Elon Musk, amidst fears of possible conflicts of interest. Narendra Modi's party has won back control of Delhi's local government after almost three decades, emboldening Modi ahead of a meeting with Trump. Japanese government bonds have seen a record sell-off as interest rates and inflation rise. Italy's corporate world has been rocked by a high-profile AI voice scam. JPMorgan Chase and Evercore have replaced Morgan Stanley as Goldman Sachs' top competitors in dealmaking advisory. Moreover, China's urban villages are set to be transformed into high-tech clusters to spur economic growth. 

https://www.ft.com/content/f5b39ea3-7663-4354-93bd-cb4569d17389

U.S. economy added just 143,000 jobs in January but unemployment rate fell to 4%

    The U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, falling short of expectations (169,000) and marking a slowdown from December’s revised 307,000 gain. Despite weaker job growth, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4%, with labor force participation rising slightly to 62.6%. Job gains were led by health care (44,000), retail (34,000), and government (32,000), while mining-related industries lost 8,000 jobs. The BLS also made significant benchmark revisions, lowering total job growth for the 12 months through March 2024 by 589,000. However, household survey adjustments showed 2.23 million more people at work due to population and immigration changes.

    Wages outpaced expectations, with average hourly earnings rising 0.5% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year (above forecasts of 0.3% and 3.7%). Markets remained steady, with investors skeptical that this report would push the Federal Reserve toward early rate cuts. While some expected California wildfires to impact hiring, the BLS found no significant effect. Economists are now watching how these trends might influence future Fed decisions.

Jobs report January 2025:

Flatlining industry spooks German politicians as elections loom

     As Germany approaches its 2025 national election, the country faces significant economic hurdles. After two years of mild recession, the projected GDP growth is a mere 0.3%. The industrial sector, especially manufacturing, is underperforming, with production levels below pre-pandemic figures. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's initiatives, including substantial investments in decarbonization projects like the Salzgitter steelworks, have encountered obstacles such as high energy costs and competition from nations like China and India. The upcoming election campaign offers the option between the current SPD-Green government, which favors higher public expenditure and more relaxed fiscal discipline, and the CDU, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, which favors tax reductions, lowered state expenditure, and firm commitment to the "debt brake." Economists are doubtful about both plans, referring to excessively optimistic assumptions and budget deficits, along with structural challenges of demographic pressures and administrative inefficiencies. The political discourse reflects a tension between preserving Germany's traditional industrial strengths and embracing necessary modernization to remain globally competitive.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/german-politicians-business-leaders-election-2025-0gs703mdm

The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging

 Lately there has been drive to incentivize using more cleaner energy sources. In the year of 2025, coal has taken more action across the globe than it has in years. Coal has been a rising export from US mainly due to the demand in Asia. President Donald Trump believes coal is not going anywhere anytime soon. He says “nothing can destroy coal, not the weather or a bomb.” China has been having weather problems and hydro power just isn’t reliable enough. Which is why China is the top coal consumer for energy security. India is another top consumer of coal because of steel and cement production. What does all this mean for our air pollution? Coal is abundant and cheap, but what is to say about our environment? Or is the economy more important?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/world-coal-demand-remains-at-record-high-as-power-demand-surges.html

United Kingdom Claims Inevitable Impact from U.S. Tariffs

     The Bank of England's Governor, Andrew Bailey, recently spoke about the impact that the tariffs will have on the United Kingdom's economy. He said that even if President Trump does not directly order tariffs to be placed on the trades between the United States and the United Kingdom there is no possible way for the English economy to avoid impacts from the tariffs. Bailey stated that the tariffs that will be placed on China, Mexico, and Canada will impact the rest of the world. This would likely result in fragmentation of the global economy which would negatively impact growth everywhere and would mainly impact inflation and trade relations.

    Even though no tariffs have been announced yet between the United Kingdom and the United States, there have been warnings of them in the foreseeable future. According to the Department of Business and Trade, the United Kingdom's largest trade partner is the United States. 17% of the United Kingdom's total trade is with the United States, so if the Trump administration were to put tariffs onto the UK it would most definitely impact both economies heavily.

    One of the main reasons that Trump would put tariffs onto the United Kingdom is because one of the goals that Trump has set for his term is to increase the amount of exports out of the States along with bringing production back to America. Currently, it is about even the amount of exports and imports that are exchanged between the two trade partners. Ever since the warnings of the potential tariffs the Bank of England reduced their growth expectation for the calendar year from 1.5% to 0.75%. Recently, the United Kingdoms GDP reading showed them flatlining during the third quarter with no growth to be shown for. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/bank-of-england-andrew-bailey-says-uk-cant-avoid-us-tariff-impact.html 

Republican Dispute Over Spending Levels is Holding Up Trump's Legislative Agenda

 

President Trump’s legislative agenda has run into an obstacle as congressional Republicans are split on spending levels. In the crossfire of this disagreement is a legislative package that includes tax cuts, energy policy, health care, and border security funds. GOP leaders in the House have proposed cutting several hundred billion dollars over the next 10 years, but this has been opposed by some hardline conservatives who want over $2 trillion in cuts. It will be interesting to see how the Trump administration goes about achieving its goal of lowering taxes and cutting spending. So far, it has been unclear how the administration plans to make up for the revenue lost from tax cuts, as well as where spending will be cut from the budget, as the GOP is looking to increase military and border security funding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/trump-tax-cuts-republican-house-senate-split.html

Trump Says He Spoke with Putin About Ending the War in Ukraine

    U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that he has spoken by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This marks the first known direct conversation between Putin and a U.S. president since early 2022. Trump, who has repeatedly claimed he could bring the war to a conclusion, did not disclose the specifics of his discussions with Putin or how many times they have spoken. He described the war as a "bloodbath" and expressed a strong desire to stop the ongoing violence, but he has yet to publicly outline a concrete plan for achieving peace.

    The White House did not comment on Trump’s claims, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded cautiously, stating that multiple channels of communication exist and that he could neither confirm nor deny the reports. Russian sources have indicated that preparations for a potential peace summit are already at an "advanced stage," with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates being considered as possible venues for such talks.

    Putin’s position on ending the war remains firm. He has demanded that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and withdraw from four regions that Russia claims as its own. While he is reportedly open to discussions with Trump, he has ruled out making any major territorial concessions. Trump, known for his negotiation tactics as outlined in The Art of the Deal, has stated that he would meet with Putin to discuss a resolution but has not specified when or where such a meeting might take place.

    Additionally, Trump has indicated that he plans to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky next week to discuss ending the conflict. Zelensky, in a separate statement, suggested that Ukraine could supply the U.S. with rare earth minerals in exchange for continued financial and military support. Trump reiterated his belief that he has a clear strategy for ending the war but refused to disclose further details, simply stating, "I hope it’s fast. Every day people are dying. This war is so bad in Ukraine. I want to end this damn thing."

    The situation continues to evolve, with speculation growing over whether Trump’s reported talks with Putin and a potential peace summit could lead to a breakthrough in the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its Western allies remain committed to resisting Russian aggression, with no immediate signs of compromise on key issues such as territorial control and NATO membership.

Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-has-spoken-putin-about-ending-war-ukraine-new-york-post-reports-2025-02-09/

The Mission 300 Energy Summit

The Energy summit convened in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on January 27-28, 2025. Where leaders of the African continent gathered to improve the future of their countries. The Mission 300 initiative focuses on mobilizing global partnerships to address Africa's energy challenges. The goal is to provide access to affordable and clean energy for 300 million people across the continent. It seeks to accelerate Africa's energy transition through investment, collaboration, and innovative solutions. The initiative also encourages partnerships between governments, financial institutions, and the private sector to drive sustainable energy development across the region.

The Mission 300 Energy Summit emphasized the power of global partnerships in advancing Africa’s energy transformation. A key highlight was a panel session that secured over $5 billion in new pledges. Discussions focused on co-financing opportunities and the role of international partners in accelerating the energy transition. The summit played a crucial role in fostering collaboration for Africa’s energy future.

After hearing Professor Kaboub highlight the potential that the global south specifically the African continent has at the Economic Outlook conference, I felt it was necessary to write about it. It was very rewarding to read about the summit that happened in my home country, especially after the questions and doubts that the audience had.

https://www.afdb.org/en/mission-300-africa-energy-summit

Divergence in Global Central Bank Policies as the U.S. Economy Stays Strong

As 2025 begins, the U.S. economy remains strong, while many other global economies are struggling. This has led to a divide in interest rate policies. The Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts due to strong economic growth, whereas central banks in Europe, Canada, India, and Mexico continue to lower rates to boost their economies.

As a result, the U.S. dollar strengthens, making foreign goods cheaper for American buyers, which undermines tariffs. However, this also means higher borrowing costs in the U.S.. Central banks are treading carefully to avoid excessive currency devaluation and inflation risks. The Fed remains cautious, aiming to control inflation while navigating global economic challenges.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/leaving-fed-behind-top-central-banks-have-room-ease-2025-02-07/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

The Biggest Tax Season Threat Isn’t an IRS Audit

 

Tax season for 2024 has begun and while many people worry about IRS audits, a bigger risk is tax-identity theft. Scammers are targeting personal information and it has been recorded that recent data breach has exposed 2.9 billion records including Social Security numbers. With more than 140 million individuals filing for tax, nearly 40% of taxpayers relying on refunds to make ends meet. This threat is a serious economic concern. Fraudulent activities could potentially decrease total tax revenue or cause individuals who rely on refunds to incur extra debt while working to resolve these issues.

To protect yourself, it is important to file your tax return early and consider using an IRS identity protection PIN. Filing early can help prevent fraudsters from using your Social Security number to file a fake return. If you decide to work with a tax professional, make sure they use secure online processes rather than email to share sensitive information. Check that your tax preparer signs your tax returns with a valid Preparer Tax Identification Number (PTIN) and use trusted directories like the IRS Directory of Federal Tax Return Preparers to verify their credentials.

Staying alert to scams is also essential. The IRS typically communicates by mail and does not send initial messages via email or text. So if you receive an unexpected message claiming to be from the IRS and asking for personal or financial details, do not click on any links or provide your information. Scammers may promise large refunds, credits, or even pandemic-related payments as a trick.   Understanding these risks is important because identity theft can lead to significant financial problems.  

source 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/its-tax-season-prepare-for-fake-irs-emails-texts-scams.html

 

Rising Tensions Regarding the Panama Canal

    In recent years, the cost of using the Panama Canal has risen. The rising fees were not much of a concern until President Trump asserted the rise had been "excessive," accusing the canal operators of overcharging American shipping companies. Additionally, there has been fear among politicians concerning the potential control China may have over the canal since China recently funded its infrastructure; additionally, a company based in Hong Kong is responsible for the canal operation on both sides, thus creating fear among politicians about China's control over the canal.     Although the canal's revenues have risen faster than traffic, the President of Panama has claimed that the increased prices are due to the country's issues with droughts and their investments in upgrades and general maintenance to keep the canal in smooth operating condition. In the 12 months through September, tools and service fees were calculated to be 62% higher than five years earlier; passages rose only 2% during that period. Although there is an additional fee placed on the products imported through the canal, the cost is more minor compared to the expectations of some consumers, such as an extra $11 for a French door refrigerator that sells for over $1,000 and 10 cents for a $40 coffee maker. However, if Trump were to get lower tool fees as he demands, the average American consumer's savings would be minuscule due to a decreased tool.     As a result of increased prices and security concerns, President Trump threatened to reclaim the Panama Canal and stated that "military force is not out of the question" when speaking to reporters. The President of Panama, José Raúl Mulino, addressed Trump's threats and asserted that "there is no question that Panama operates the canal and will continue to be so." With the introduction of tariffs against Canada and Mexico and now growing tensions between Trump and the President of Panama, there are increasing concerns for the imports and exports of the U.S. economy in the upcoming months. The canal is crucial for the U.S. economy, as it permits a shorter route between the East Coast and Asia than traveling across the Atlantic. Additionally, 40% of U.S. container traffic and energy exports travel through the canal, and damaged relations with Panama would result in more expensive imports if the situation were to escalate. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/business/economy/panama-canal-fees.html

DeepSeek causes a Deep Sink in the US Stock Market

DeepSeek recently released globally, and the US Stock Market took a massive hit. DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, produced a chatbot that runs on significantly cheaper equipment than that of Open AI, Google, Microsoft, etc. It initially was said to produced and trained for about $5.6M.

NVIDIA, who had been a force in the market during 2024, took a $560B market cap hit - and the market was down 600 points during the day. 

As the week has gone on, more and more people have looked into DeepSeek, and how it was even possible that it was produced for that cheap. After some investigation, multiple experts are estimating DeepSeek actually costed about $1B to produce. While still significantly cheaper than development costs for other US AI's, the alarm bells may not be as bad as initially anticipated.

NVIDIA has responded while posting a relatively strong week, up 3%. While still not to the levels it was before DeepSeek was released, it is a good sign for the US Stock Market and AI alike. The market has stabilized after its free fall on the 27th of January.

The jury is still out on what the implications of DeepSeek will be. The US Government is pushing to get it banned from government devices, but we will wait and see if it can beat the AI giants of the US, or if it will be another failed attempt to disrupt the industry.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/deepseek-tanks-stock-market-nvidia/

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/us5-6m-probably-100-times-that-says-fundie-of-deepseek-price-tag-20250131-p5l8mj

Economy Bessent says Trump is focused on the 10-year Treasury yield and won’t push the Fed to cut rates

 President Trump wants to lower rates, Bessent says he will do so by using the 10-year treasury bond, not the federal funds rate. In September, the Fed used a rare-cutting cycle to lower the fed funds rate by 100 basis points. Trump believes that if they deregulate the economy, the rates will take care of themselves. The 10-year last traded at 4.45%. Trump not commanding the Fed to lower rates could ease tension between the two.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/bessent-says-trump-is-focused-on-the-10-year-yield-wont-push-fed-to-cut-rates.html

Trump’s Foreign Aid Freeze and Its Impact on Haiti

President Trump has implemented a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid, raising concerns beyond the implications for the Ukraine war. Many countries that the U.S. has been assisting are now facing significant challenges, particularly Haiti. There, a U.N.-backed mission aimed at combating gang violence in the capital was impacted. While the mission relies mainly on volunteer assistance, support from the U.S. and Kenya has been crucial. With the aid freeze, $13.3 million in funds is now unavailable, threatening the effectiveness of forces on the ground. Gangs already control approximately 85% of Port-au-Prince, and without the necessary funding, the situation could deteriorate further. 

Additionally, the aid freeze affects humanitarian efforts. U.S. support for health and social programs, including child care, food assistance, and medical treatments, has all come to a halt, jeopardizing vital initiatives. Some argue this might push Haiti’s government to take more responsibility, but given the country's systemic instability, international support remains essential. This crisis highlights the dangers of heavy reliance on U.S. aid and raises discussions on sustainable development and alternative global partnerships. 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has proposed a waiver for life-saving programs, but there is confusion regarding qualifications for exemptions from the stop-work orders. This situation exemplifies the dependence some countries have on foreign aid. While U.S. assistance has been critical in Haiti, experts argue that the country must focus on governance reforms and economic self-sufficiency to reduce reliance on external support. 

I believe that some countries do need foreign aid to help combat national problems; however, the issue arises when they become dependent on that aid. The moment the aid is withdrawn, the country is left struggling. I think more stable nations should establish guidelines to provide aid through structured programs for struggling nations. However, they cannot take the lead on these efforts; countries must also take action alongside this aid to start building a stable foundation. This way, when the aid is no longer available, they are not left vulnerable. Haiti is a prime example: its long-term stability requires both internal reforms and diversified international support. We must learn to approach these situations differently to prevent countries from becoming reliant on foreign aid.

Source: https://apnews.com/article/haiti-un-us-halt-aid-trump-e32763c0446b268b421f3b409c4dc147

The Future that Amazon sees in Ohio

 The Future that Amazon sees in Ohio

    Recently, Amazon has spent over $100 million to purchase land for data centers in Fayette County right next to Honda and LG’S battery plant, and this isn’t the only sizable piece of land they have bought in this area. By 2030, Fayette County expects to see $5 billion spent on construction for the new data centers. These data centers are physical facilities that store the hardware and equipment that powers Amazon's cloud computing services. This new center will be the company’s first data center outside of central Ohio, and is projected to create more than 100 Amazon jobs and support others throughout the supply chain. According to the company, they plan to expand their statewide footprint in up to eight new locations. This influx of data centers around the greater Columbus area is expected to eat up so much energy that demand for power in the region will be similar to all of Manhattan by 2030. According to American Electric Power, their transmission system in central Ohio was serving about 600 megawatts from data centers which is enough to power 250,000 homes. 

    I think that the industrial developments around central Ohio show definite promise for a great future, but I worry that too much development could drive people away from the area in the future. I just always think of the guy who cut down all the trees in the Lorax, causing all the little bears to leave their home. Luckily we have government policies that would hopefully stop any sort of situation like that from happening, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen to a certain extent. I know Intel is building two semiconductor chip factories in New Albany which will also be great for employment, but I wonder what the impact on other things like the environment this will have on the surrounding area. For right now, Columbus shows lots of promise as a place to find a job and make a decent living. I think it will be interesting to hee how sustainable some of these new factories are in retaining the growth and prosperity that we see within Columbus today.    

Can Money Fix a Season? Manchester City's $223 Million Gamble

Manchester City's January Spending Spree: Economic Implications for Football

    The 2025 Premier League January transfer window ran from January 1 to February 3. One club in particular, Manchester City, took advantage of the window by using a different strategy than the club typically has used in the past. The reigning champions, who are pursuing their fifth consecutive Premier League title, spent near-record amounts during this transfer period. This bold move offers insights into football economics and the financial operations of top clubs. City's unusual January activity comes from a challenging season, as they trail Liverpool by 15 points and face the risk of an early Champions League exit. Their actions demonstrate how on-field performance can drive significant financial decisions, even for a club accustomed to success.

    City bought Omar Marmoush (£60m), Abdukodir Khusanov (£40m), and Vitor Reis (£30m), aiming to address both current needs and long-term plans. This spending was largely funded through player sales, including Julián Álvarez's £81m move to Atletico Madrid and the sale of academy graduates. Notably, the club has generated significant profit from academy sales, potentially totaling £276m in the past five years. This strategy highlights the value of developing and selling players to stay financially flexible under league rules, with academy sales counted as pure profit in terms of Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules.

    City's spending makes up nearly half of the Premier League's January transfers. While the other 19 clubs spent £270 million combined, City alone spent £223 million, with £130 million going to just three players. This large investment can affect player values and transfer fees across football, showing how one club's decisions can impact the whole market.

Read more about Manchester City's transfer strategy here

    As football evolves, money management is becoming important for success on the field. It'll be interesting to see if City's big spending can save their season. Other clubs, like Chelsea in 2023, have tried this with mixed results. The next few months will show if City's huge investment pays off or becomes another warning story in football economics.

Extreme Concern Regarding Tariffs Within Wall Street

On Monday, Wall Street visibly showed their concerns for President Trump’s tariffs, as stock prices declined sharply in U.S stock markets. S&P 500 dropped by 0.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .28% and Nasdaq by 1.2%. The main concern was that the tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods like groceries and electronics, ultimately raising inflation and halting the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower interest rates. Tech companies were hit the hardest however, as those who are sensitive to higher rates fear the negative effects global trade could have on corporate profit. 

Stocks were able to recover after Mexico announced its one month delay on tariffs following discussions with Trump. This indicated some optimism that tariffs could potentially be a negotiation strategy rather than a permanent policy. Some industries are very reliant on Canada’s crude oil for example, which causes panic and a widespread concern when the topic of tariffs is mentioned.

Monday’s  market activity highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and their economic consequences. Global markets also saw losses, with significant declines in Europe and Asia. The upcoming week will feature crucial economic reports and earnings reports from major companies, which will likely further influence the attitude of the market.

Link : https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/02/02/wall-street-falls-following-trumps-tariffs-but-not-as-badly-as-feared-in-the-morning/ 

China factory activity growth slows again as Trump tariffs loom

China’s factory growth slowed down in January with the Caixin PMI dropping slightly to 50.1. It’s still growing, but just barely. A big reason for this slowdown is trade uncertainty, which has led to the biggest drop in factory jobs in almost five years. Some companies are stockpiling products because they’re worried about possible U.S. tariffs, but at the same time export orders are shrinking, and manufacturers are being forced to lower prices to stay competitive. It’s clear China’s manufacturing sector is feeling the pressure, and if they want to stay strong, they’ll need to adapt and this could maybe be done by trading with more countries, investing in new technology, or focusing more on selling within China instead of relying so much on exports.

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-factory-activity-growth-slows-015509187.html

Ontario to remove U.S. alcohol from shelves after Trump’s tariffs announcement

President Trump has always emphasized to keep our country American named and American owned. Recently he enacted the "America First" agenda putting tariffs on our top trade partners. Ever since he signed for this executive decision there has been a great amount of backlash. Specifically one of our highest Alcohol trade partners, The Liquor Control Board of Ontario, has announced they move to pull all American alcohol from their shelves and will take American products out of their catalogue so no retailers can restock. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced this after the Prime Minister requested 25% of all U.S. goods. Ford states that "Every year, LCBO sells nearly $1 billion worth of American wine, beer, spirts and seltzers." The LBCO is Americas second main expert in Canada with a 25.9 million trade value. This move from the LBCO has influenced other Canadian Premier's to retaliate against Trumps tariffs. Premier Tim Houston directing the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation is removing all American alcohol from their shelves. Also, actions have came arise in other areas as well. British Columbian David Eby of  BC Liquor Distribution took perhaps a more fair action and announced that they plan to "immediately stop buying American liquor from "red states' and removes the top-selling "red-state" brands from the shelves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html

Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire soon − study shows they made income inequality worse and especially hurt Black Americans

             The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed by Donald Trump in 2017, is set to expire on December 31, 2024. While it was the most extensive tax overhaul since Reagan's administration, it primarily favored corporations, wealthy individuals, and tax partnerships, with over 80% of the cuts directed to these groups. Despite promises of middle-class relief, the advantages were modest, and the law added $1.9 trillion to the national deficit. Its helpful impact on Black, middle-income, and low-income taxpayers was particularly limited, exacerbating existing economic inequalities. As Republicans negotiate new tax policies in 2025, lessons from the 2017 reforms remain critical. Trump's tax cuts deepened racial income and wealth disparities, as the corporate tax savings primarily benefited wealthy shareholders rather than the broader population. In the U.S., most shareholders are corporations, pension funds, and wealthy individuals, which are predominantly composed of white Americans. Trump's tax cuts required the IRS to calculate inflation adjustments using the Chained CPI. Many consumers had to switch to cheaper alternatives as prices rose. For instance, it assumed shoppers would buy pork instead of beef as they tried to minimize the perceived impact of inflation. In addition, this approach resulted in smaller inflation adjustments, disproportionately affecting low-income communities with limited access to budget-friendly alternatives. Since Black Americans are more likely than low-income white Americans to live in underserved neighborhoods, they have been more severely impacted by rising prices. Finally, with the Trump tax cuts set to expire, Congress can reassess their impact and address the inequalities they worsened. By crafting policies that promote fairness, lawmakers should work toward a tax system that supports all Americans more effectively. 

Link To Article:

https://theconversation.com/trumps-2017-tax-cuts-expire-soon-study-shows-they-made-income-inequality-worse-and-especially-hurt-black-americans-233758

Norway plans to virtually erase gasoline and diesel cars from its streets

By the end of 2025, Norwegian officials believe that 95 to 100% of cars on their roads will be electric vehicles. Data published by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration found that EVs accounted for more than 96% of new cars sold in the first few weeks of this year, an astonishing number. Norway has long been recognized as an advocate of sustainable transportation and a leader in clean energy with almost all of its electricity coming from renewable resources and its new car sales solidify its citizens involvement in helping the country uphold these goals. Norway's success with transitioning to EVs comes even without a federal mandate that its citizens must switch to them, but rather long term and consistent policies that have supported the uptake in EVs. Some policies applied to their EV owners include discounts on road parking taxes. Norway is a definitive leader is clean energy and is an excellent model for many other countries to follow. 

These astounding numbers from Norway also come in light of newly elected President Trumps recent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Trumps decision to withdraw has been heavily criticized by many advocates of clean and renewable energy. Will Norway's push to use clean and renewable energy be enough to help our planet or will it at least promote the use of clean energy in other countries? Although Norway has posted very impressive numbers, I believe it will take more than a few countries to promote clean energy usage to actually have a significant impact on the planet as a whole in the long run.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/28/norway-set-to-be-the-first-to-fully-transition-to-electric-vehicles.html

Study reveals flaws in Ohio's retail electricity marketplace

 A very timely report by a group of OSU researchers on the state of the retail electricity market in Ohio. This ties very closely to our discussion of perfect markets and what the necessary conditions are for markets to be efficient. This is a clear case where deregulation of the market was supposed to create fierce competition and a more efficient allocation of electricity. It turns out that consumers lack the necessary information to make decisions and what we end up with is called a market failure....we will cover this later in the week. 

You can listen to the report instead of reading the article...just under 5 minutes.

Arabica Coffee Prices Hit New High on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

 Link: https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/arabica-coffee-prices-hit-new-high-on-u-s-colombia-tariff-spat-582446fe?mod=economy_lead_story

President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, or the threat of tariffs, has already proven to be a powerful bargaining tool when it comes to trade. President Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on Colombia up to 25% in retaliation for the Colombian government refusing two planes with migrants to land. The article doesn’t elaborate on the plane fiasco, but does say that the two countries came to a resolution as the tariffs would be “held in reserve” unless Colombia breaks their end of the deal. The consequence of the tariffs led to a 40% increase in price for the coffee (the US imports about 30% of its coffee from Colombia). 

The tariffs help shed some light on potential issues that could be looming over commodity markets in Canada, Mexico and China. Potential tariffs on imports from these countries is likely to lead to increased volatility around trade in the coming weeks. With Mexico and Canada being the US’s biggest trading partners this could lead to major disruptions in markets that are already experiencing heightened prices.

The main reason why this article caught my attention is because I am still very curious about how tariffs will affect the US and the rest of the world in the coming years. It has already proven to have great effects but there are differing opinions on whether or not the effects are positive or negative and just how far will it be used simply as a threat?

Connecting the World's Grids for Cheaper and Greener Energy

Less than 3% of all power crosses a border, leading to high prices and inefficiencies worldwide. Energy prices in Norway have been spiking as of late as the normally windy North Sea has turned calm, resulting in their reliance on wind power to come back to haunt them. Politicians are proposing the idea of connecting international cables to curb problems like this.

The idea is that when there is a windy day in Norway and they have an excess amount of power, they can send it to another country where whatever renewable source they use is not in excess. In simplified terms, power can flow from where it is cheap to where it is costlier. This would allow for cheaper energy on both sides of the cable and help in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. 

Norway does have state-owned power plants unlike the United States whose energy giants would never allow an efficient service like this. An additional worry is the potential for sabotaging the lines due to political differences like the Taiwanese subsea communication link that may have been this month.  

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/01/23/to-make-electricity-cheaper-and-greener-connect-the-worlds-grids

New Orleans Super Bowl Implications

 The Super Bowl is one of the most watched sporting events in the world, and this year, it's being held in the Big Easy. New Orleans, already a bustling tourist destination, will host the biggest sporting event in the United States. Last year, the Super Bowl generated $480M in economic impact. The estimations for this year are nearing $600M. The Super Bowl falls right in the middle of "Mardi Gras season", New Orleans's busiest time of year. Restaurants, bars, gift shops, and everything in between will see a massive revenue boost with the increased number of people. More shifts will be worked, more foot traffic and many more drunkards will be recklessly spending their money - all boosting the economy! New Orleans also recently hosted the Sugar Bowl - with Notre Dame and Georgia facing off in a battle on January 2nd.

I had the chance to speak with some business owners in New Orleans, and they mentioned this time of year is huge for them usually from Mardi Gras, but with the Super Bowl added on top, they are expecting to do very well over the coming weeks.

The Super Bowl will be a fantastic mood lifter for New Orleans after the tragic terrorist attack on New Year's Day in the French Quarter. 

Source: How New Orleans is transforming Super Bowl 2025