Here we go with another forecast of the US economy in the months to come. This article compares the current recession with the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82. From the survey of 54 economists, the downturn is expected to end in June 2009. Since it was said to start in December 2007, the current recession will be lasting for 18 months, 2 months longer than the two previous recessions.
"This recession has centered not on businesses but consumers, who are being hit by dwindling home prices and job losses. The economists on average said the unemployment rate will peak at 8.4% in response to this recession. While that actual rate was surpassed in both the 1970s and 1980s, it would mark a four-percentage-point increase from the low of 4.4% in March 2007. Only the 1973-75 recession, with a 4.1-percentage-point increase, had a larger jump in the postwar period." Economists also expect job cuts to continue into 2010. Some others with more pessimistic view even thinks job market will not recover until four more years. With that being said, probably the best choice for us will be to buy more time studying (master, PhD, etc), because it'll take more time than previously forecasted for the economy to recover.
1 comment:
I disagree with these economists. I feel we have not even hit the bottom yet. Once we do (who knows how long) we will start on the upswing. I don't know when, but I don't think it will be June 2009.
Post a Comment