There are positive signs of a recovery in Germany's economy, especially in service sectors like tourism and hospitality. Business confidence is rising and a winter recession is likely to be avoided. This is good news for the government as rising wages, lower inflation, and potential interest rate cuts could boost the outlook and weaken the far-right AfD party.

However, the picture is not all good. Manufacturing is still struggling due to high energy costs and weak Chinese demand. This is a major concern as the sector is a significant driver of German growth. There are some signs of hope for the future though, with expectations of a pick-up in global trade and looser monetary policy. The government is also taking steps to address structural weaknesses in the economy, but it faces challenges in finding budget savings and implementing reforms.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-economy-shows-signs-life-050000459.html

Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected

 Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/pce-inflation-march-2024-key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-2point8percent.html

Bad news from a key indicator's report on the 27th left the market with little hope of an interest rate drop this upcoming month, and core (excludes food & energy) personal consumption expenditure (PCE) numbers for March 2024 came in at 2.8% from a year ago (March 2023). 

This is especially discouraging for investors as core PCE is an important indicator to the FED, as they have relied on it historically to base their rationale to decisions made by the board. The initial estimates aimed to have core PCE come in at 2.7%, and all-item PCE (less important) come in at 2.6%. The actual numbers from March were 2.8%, and 2.7%, respectively. 

Other bad news came in from inflation reports with consumer spending coming in higher than expected, and the opposite happening for consumer savings. This will likely lead to the FED keeping interest rates where they are at, as necessary signs of inflation slowing have not shown yet.

Despite the results, shockingly usually reactive markets opened high Thursday morning, after coming off a bad week of decreases. I'd expect this to be a sign of market ignorance, as investors spent all of last week watching the market tumble, this is probably just investors in the market tired of the pitfalls, and blissfully turning away from the negative reports. 

Alaska's seafood industry getting a bit rocky

 The Alaska seafood industry, estimated at $6 billion in 2021-2022, is projected to suffer a price collapse in 2023 as a result of inflation and increased worldwide supply. Despite supplying 60% of US seafood, Alaska accounts for only 1.8% of the global market. Salmon and crab account for 40% and 9% of industry value, respectively, competing with farmed and Russian products. Employment fell to 48,000 jobs in 2021-2022, with the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region being hurt the hardest. A proposed task group attempts to solve these difficulties, such as market losses and plant closures, in order to ensure the industry's viability. This emphasizes the critical need for targeted actions to protect Alaska's significant fishing industry and assist the communities that rely on it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-portrays-mixed-picture-alaska-130034976.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

Global Recession Risk Minimal despite Geopolitical Concerns

The International Monetary Fund says that risk of a global recession is not indicated right now, while they are increasing their predicted global growth rate. They also talks about how the U.S. is having a strong economic performance as well as many different developing market economies. Europe is a mixed bag with the growth forecast decreasing for Germany, France, and Italy; but increasing for Spain, Belgium, the U.K, and Portugal. Tensions growing in the Middle East as well as Russia and Ukraine have led to uncertainty and issues with oil and energy prices and distribution. This is having an impact on global inflation. The IMF is also monitoring geopolitical concerns and says that this will continue to play a huge role in future economic forecasts. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/risk-of-a-global-recession-is-minimal-imf-economist-says.html

Spain seeing economic boost from immigrant workers

Over the past few years, Spain has been struggling economically. It has had the highest unemployment rate out of any European country, and economic growth has slowed. However, recently Spain's economy has been performing much better, and immigrant workers are helping this boost. Many workers who have found their skillsets undervalued in other countries have gone to Spain where their skills are in much higher demand. Despite Spain's high unemployment rate in comparison to other countries in Europe, many immigrants coming from other countries find it much easier to find work in Spain than in their home country. Spain currently needs skilled workers to fill gaps in its labor markets, and has looked to immigrants to fill these gaps.

How the NHL playoffs Impact The Economy

Since the NHL playoffs starting a few days ago, I wanted to see if the cities/states with playoff teams saw any economic boost from their team making the playoffs. This article focuses around the New Jersey Devils and the economic impact they had on the city of Newark during last years playoff run. 

The New Jersey Devils' resurgence in the NHL playoffs is not just a win for hockey fans but also for the economy, particularly in Newark and beyond. After years of underperformance, the team's success has revitalized local businesses and generated excitement in the community. Partnerships with New Jersey-based businesses have further boosted economic activity, with increased spending at restaurants, bars, and hotels during game nights. 

The Devils' deep playoff run is expected to bring significant revenue through merchandise sales, sponsorship, and ticket sales. With a young roster and a strategic vision for sustainability, the team's success is seen as a long-term opportunity for economic growth in the region.

Aside from the Devils playoff run last year, the 2017 Nashville Predators generated an additional $50M in economic activity during their 11 additional home games during the playoffs that year. Although no economy should rely on a sports team to generate additional economic activity, its interesting to see the value of short term investment associated with the playoffs.

Source: https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2023/04/nj-devils-playoffs-brings-economic-boost-to-newark-region/

Turkey restricts exports to Israel

As Israel has prevented Turkey from providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians suffering in Gaza, Turkey has chosen to begin restricting 54 exports to Israel. Announced on April 9th, 2024 by the Turkish Ministry of Trade, the restrictions will be imposed until a ceasefire is in effect and aid is provided to Palestinians. The majority of trade restricted by the Turkish is construction materials -- equipment and machinery, fuel and chemicals, and building materials such as iron and steel.

In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz commented that Turkey was making a usual economic mistake by choosing to refrain from participating in the genocidal Israeli market. Additionally, he mentions that Israel will be calling their friends in the US Congress to encourage the United States to impose sanctions upon Turkey. 

However, Turkey will not let up on their conviction to support the liberation of Palestinians. Turkey and Israel have long had a tumultuous relationship surrounding Palestine, and recent events have influenced the Turkish population to decrease trade and relations with Israel.

I find this interesting for a couple of reasons including: US involvement in foreign relationships, what the economy has to do with political issues, why does Turkey choose to prevent the trade of these products, etc. Let me know what you all think. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/9/turkey-restricts-exports-of-54-products-to-israel-until-gaza-ceasefire

Here's why economists are so worried about soaring US debt levels

        The US has the biggest public debt in its history. As of this year, the federal debt balance hit 34 trillion dollars, and the government is on pace to rack up another 1 trillion in debt every 100 days. The rising debt will cause a multitude of economic problems, including higher inflation rates and lower quality of life, and can destabilize the financial system. 

      The US government's operations are heavily reliant on debt. This means that it's not just the government's problem-it's our problem. It's crucial that the government is able to sell its debt to a wide range of investors, including institutions, individuals, and other countries. However, the mounting debt levels have cast serious doubt on the government's ability to repay its loans, raising concerns about our collective financial security. 

      The US treasury had 22 trillion dollars in government bonds as of last year, but that number has shrunk significantly as of this year, suggesting very little demand for government assets. This leads to concerns about whether or not the government will be able to continue funding itself and paying its bills.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4

Lack of Purchasing Power in the Housing Market Continues

 The cost of buying a new house just hit a fresh record as mortgage rates rose to the highest level this year. Findings from Redfin show the combination of steep mortgage rates and elevated home prices has pushed the median monthly housing payment to a record $2775- an 11% increase from the same time last year. There are a number of driving forces behind the affordability crisis. Years of underbuilding fueled a shortage of homes in the country, a problem that was later exacerbated by the rapid rise in mortgage rates and expensive construction materials. Higher mortgage rates over the past three years have created a "golden handcuff" effect in the housing market. Sellers who locked in a record-low mortgage rate of 3% or less during the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell, limiting supply further and leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.