Friday, September 17, 2021

Boeing says air travel to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024

As an industry that is worth 3.6% of the global economy and supported 65.5 million jobs worldwide, the aviation industry is an incredibly important part of the global economy. And it has been and will be for a while, going through dramatic changes.

According to the airline body IATA, passenger numbers fell 60% and the industry lost around $126 billion last year during the pandemic. However, this situation was subject to change. The industry recovers to 2019 levels of traffic by the end of 2023, early 2024 says Darren Hulst, the vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing. The US aircraft maker claimed that 43,610 new commercial aircraft will be needed by 2040, which has a combined value of $7.2 trillion.

There are some obstacles on the way to recovery. Due to factors such as travel restrictions imposed by the governments and intense political tensions, long-haul international routes would take more time to recover. Moreover, the lack of a coordinated global approach has made international travel, even state travel difficult. In other words, having a common set of travel rules is a key component to full recovery. Although some efforts have been made in Europe by introducing the vaccine passport, the majority of the other countries and regions in the world still impose different quarantine requirements and have their own approach to monitor the vaccination status and.

Other than changes made subject to the pandemic, the aviation industry is changing geographically as well. China is predicted to replace the United States as the world's biggest aviation market along with the rise of China and the Middle East. In addition, the aviation industry is becoming more sustainable. Though slowly, there have been efforts made towards reducing fuel usage and carbon dioxide of air travel in response to the crisis of climate change. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) predicts that at most, 5.5% of aviation fuel in the EU could come from sustainable sources by 2030.

Credit: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58560821

Monday, September 13, 2021

A different perspective to the current situation in Afghanistan

 


As the US troops have withdrawn from the Afghan land, the Taliban have taken over. The general understanding of people is that the same system which was followed 20 years ago by the Taliban will be implemented again. Their rule 20 years ago was very harsh and included brutal tactics. Women were not allowed to go to school or appear in public so easily. Men were beaten up publicly for what they thought was an un-Islamic act. Men were forced to not cut their beards and pray five times a day. Public executions were also very common. This time when the Taliban came to power again, they did announce certain things that weren’t expected of them. For example, they announced that no one will be harmed, and everyone is forgiven. They acted more like they wanted the country to run progressively. They also announced that women can attend school, colleges, and higher education in segregated settings. They did not stop women from working jobs. They also announced breaking ties with Al-Qaida. Now, how much truth lies in them, is only what time can prove. But considering the fact they have made decisions that are not expected from them and are trying to be progressive is commendable. Recently, the Taliban said they want their university graduates to compete with the world. These announcements are rather shocking because nothing like this has been announced in their rule before. They are still strict about a lot of things and are enforcing the Islamic law, but all do all these progressive announcements mean that they are changed this time? Is Afghanistan really going to come up and compete with the rest of the world? Will they actually be able to develop their economy so strongly? Only time can tell.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/12/taliban-say-women-can-study-in-gender-segregated-universities

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/16/1028053171/will-taliban-rule-be-any-different-this-time


Sunday, September 12, 2021

El Salvador's Presidency and Switch to Cryptocurrency

     El Salvador has made headlines in the past week for two things, the decision made by the country's supreme court to allow presidents to run for a second consecutive term, and the addition of bitcoin as its currency/legal tender. The country is known for its unstable government and high homicide rates since its civil war and many citizens have been looking for a solution. President Nayib Bukele has become extremely popular since he has come into office in 2019 for lowering crime rates across the country, building new infrastructure, and providing food stamps. But his astronomical rise to power has not been without questionable political moves in the face of democracy. After gaining a super-majority in the legislature in february, five supreme court judges were replaced with some of his sympathizers to help allow him to change the constitution to have the ability to run for a second consecutive term, which he is now looking to do in 2024. The question then becomes, what will happen now, when Mr. Bukele has the judiciary system on his side? The current situation looks like it is transitioning to an authoritarian rule, something that El Salvador has been struggling to avoid.

     The switch to bitcoin as legal tender has also caused many questions on how the country will change. Having a source of national currency as volatile as bitcoin has raised many eyebrows and has the world looking at El Salvador. When goods and services are tied down to a volatile currency, the biggest question becomes, how will this effect the market? The reason for the addition of bitcoin is due to almost 20% of El Salvador's GDP coming from overseas, where transaction costs are expensive. To counteract this, switching to bitcoin would lower these fees and allow the transferring of money to become much easier. But many citizens in the country are worried, as almost half of the people do not have internet access, and are suffering from problems internally. Is the switch to bitcoin a good decision? Is the switch untimely or ignoring other issues within the country? So many questions arise from both an economic and political standpoint when it comes to El Salvador.

 

Sources:

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/09/11/el-salvadors-bitcoin-bro-president-is-beloved-and-dangerous

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/el-salvador-leads-world-into-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-legal-tender-2021-09-07/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2289763-why-has-el-salvador-officially-adopted-bitcoin-as-its-currency/

 The new outbreak of the Covid-19. Do vaccines work?

The world has suffered from Covid-19 infection. People have lost members of the family, jobs,

freedom. I remember everyone took it as a joke. Our university had a spring break at the beginning of

March 2020. This break started a new chapter in students’ lives. I was watching the news, New York

started to shut down their university due to pandemics. No one did not think that this pandemic will kill

an enormous amount of people, turn people's lives into chaos. Starting in 2021 people started to get

vaccines. It seemed to be the end of the pandemic. The president of the United States announced that

people don’t have to wear masks anymore. So what happened? Why do we have to wear them

again?

Since the new outbreak of the Delta variant of the Covid, people have to keep social distance and wear

masks. So why did we get vaccinated? The data shows that the average number of new Covid cases in June was

around 15,000 cases, but it increased dramatically up to 150,000 in late August. According to CDC,

vaccines are highly effective. Unvaccinated people were 11 times more likely to die of covid-19, CDC

report finds. However, it is hard to make people get vaccinated due to the rights of the people or religious

beliefs. The president recently announced that workers companies with 100 or more employees

should be vaccinated or show negative test results each week. In my opinion, every person should be

responsible for society. Either get vaccinated or wear masks every time they are outdoors.

Issues in the shipping world

 


   Of the many things that were messed up during COVID-19 the shipping industry was no exception. Prices have risen almost 4 times from a year ago. The article also mentions how firms are getting desperate and may start sending out faulty ships to try and keep up with demand. I wonder if we could see a backfire of this and having some sort of ship failure causing environmental or damage to the crew members? 


Its also interesting to note how the industry was in a very good place until the pandemic happened. After that the number of idle ships went up by 11% then when the stimulus hit the demand went up 27% causing massive delays and prices soaring. Along with all of this important ports in China were closed causing even more confusion in the industry. The article also mentions how it will take maybe over a year for the backlog to be fixed. 


What I wonder is that with the delays and all the issues will we see any firms innovate and attempt to come up with new ways to ship goods? I wonder if we will ever see drones sly goods across the ocean and if it will ever be viable price wise. Just something interesting to ponder. 



Source: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/09/12/a-perfect-storm-for-container-shipping


Greece's Economy Expected to grow by 5.9% in 2021 says the prime minister

Saturday Greece's prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said he expects Greece's economy to grow by 5.9% in 2021. This is surprising considering the prime minister previously came out and had predicted growth of only 3.6%. As mentioned in the article this expected growth can be attributed to 70,000 more jobs, 46,000 more businesses, and bank savings increasing by 35 billion euros. Given the expected increase the prime minister announced a tax reduction as well as spending targeted at young people. Tax breaks for small businesses encourage them to merge as well as new entrants in the job market will be subsidized. Something I found super interesting is the government is going to incentivize getting the vaccine to 15 to 17 year olds by giving them 50 gigabytes of data for their smartphones. Another announcement by the prime minister was to lower the corporate tax rate from 24% to 22% for small businesses. The prime minister stated his goal was to "increase households' disposable income," as well as strengthing entrepreneurship in the hopes of creating new jobs. The new package sets out to boost liquidity, business growth, as well as promotion of green and digital investments. Surprisingly enough it was also reported that despite the series of strict lockdowns for Covid, Greece's quartile GDP is now back to running above pre-pandemic levels. The prime minister also mentioned a plan to combat a rise in prices. The prime minister plans offset the prices in food and power costs. In doing so the prime minister has announced tax reductions of sales taxes on coffee, transport, non-alcoholic beverages, cinemas, gyms, dance schools, and tourism packages until June 2022. 

Sources: 

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-09-11/greeces-economy-to-grow-59-in-2021-prime-minister-says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-11/greece-forecasts-fastest-gdp-growth-in-2-decades-plans-tax-cuts 

Higher Wages, Higher Inflation

     Due to the earlier waves of Covid, production of non-medical goods saw a decline, and now that regular production has been picking up, the market is lagging behind. Due to the decrease production of important inputs such as raw materials and intricate parts, we are seeing input shortages that have made it difficult for American manufacturing companies to pick up where they left off. Along with the this, many people have refused to go back to work following the pandemic, which has caused a worker shortage all over the country. In fact, the Labor Department has reported 10.9 million open job positions in July, which is hard to believe considering the 5.2% unemployment rate that has been reported by the Fed. To aid with this problem, firms have been seen increasing their wage, subsequently increasing their prices. With the shortages in inputs and shortages in labor, we are seeing a two pronged attack on the price of goods and services. Due to the market being in disequilibria, we will certainly see improvement in the future, however. Due to the decentralization of the market system, the market will soon catch back up with production of inputs. To solve the problem of worker shortages, we will likely see innovation in capital that will replace workers with machines and computer programs in order to lower the currently inflated price of goods. 


Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/08/businesses-are-feeling-stronger-inflation-and-paying-higher-wages-feds-beige-book-says.html

Biden's vaccine mandate could be a shot in the arm for U.S. economy, experts say

    President Joe Biden announced a nationwide vaccine mandate which requires all employers with 100  or more employees to make sure their workforces are fully vaccinated or show a negative COVID test at least once a week. The government hopes that this mandate will not only protect lives, but the economy as well. Economists have attributed the U.S. economy's slower than expected growth to the highly contagious Delta variant. Until the virus can be contained, states with low vaccination rates will continue slower job growth than states where more of the population is vaccinated. 

    The mandate will affect about 100 million Americans, many of those already vaccinated. According to research from the Associated Press, about half of Americans are in favor of vaccine mandates for employees working in person at their workplace. This comes after the nation only added 235,000 jobs in August, which did not meet economists expectation of 750,000 new jobs. Employers looking for workers may see these numbers and take a page of the mandate to grow their businesses faster.

    However, there are questions to be answered from this new mandate. It is unsure how the vaccine mandate will be unforced and fines to companies who do not comply could be as expensive as $14,000, according to Biden. Also, this mandate could have an adverse reaction from employees, who may just quit rather than abide by the vaccine requirements, further slowing job growth. The largest question still to answer is the virus. Chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson, noted that Delta cases could peak as soon as this month. Therefore, the dip in cases could spur consumer confidence and grow the economy. Still, there is uncertainty about a possible winter surge in the future. So, it will be interesting to see how much dent the vaccine mandate will make in the ongoing pandemic.

Article link: Biden's vaccine mandate could be a shot in the arm for U.S. economy, experts say - CBS News

U.S Hiring Slowed Sharply in August.

 

According to the Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 235,000 jobs in August even though economists had estimated that there would be 720,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2% from July, and the wages increased 0.6% from the last month. The reason why less jobs were added was due to weak hiring in service sector. According to an economist at the Economic Outlook Group, consumers are cautious about spending. This is known to many businesses which is causing them to pull back on hiring. About 5% of events that were scheduled for the coming months have been cancelled and some have been switched to online. As the events are cancelled, businesses don’t have the need for many workers which has resulted in the hiring process slowing down. The pace of job growth is dependent on the direction of Covid-19 as it has already caused uncertainty and that’s why many employers are holding their hiring process. It is also expected that children going back to school will lure parents in the labor force as child-care responsibilities ease, especially for women. Employment at daycare fell during the pandemic because parents were working at home and so were able to look after their children themselves.

 

As Covid-19 cases rise due to the Delta variant, the job market will be impacted. However, the unemployment rate has declined significantly from July 2020 (10.2%) to August 2021 (5.2%) a decrease of 5%. This decrease is attributed to the availability of the vaccine as it has aided the economy into becoming stable again. If we are able to control the Covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate will decrease further and the economy might experience a boost again.  

 

 

Cambon, S. C., & Morath, E. (2021, September 3). U.S. hiring Slowed sharply in August. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/august-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11630624394.


Biden changes sanctions on Venezuela, but what have we really accomplished?

    Venezuela's economy has been in decline for since before Obama was elected. Their government has been plagued with corruption through Hugo Chavez's time in office and after his death in 2013. His successor Nicolas Maduro has also caused lots of controversy since taking control. His election wins had many allegations of fraud and is viewed as illegitimate by the United States and many others. Despite the huge economic struggles Maduro has held significant control over Venezuela with the support of Russia, China, and other foreign Powers. The United States supports Juan Guaido as the rightful president of Venezuela.
    During Trumps time as president he imposed harsh sanctions in a "maximum pressure" strategy. The hope was the Maduro regime would not be able to maintain control in this state, however with the help of Russia and China, Maduro was able to capitalize on certain opportunities Trumps policy created. Part of Trumps policy was to have US companies remove operations from Venezuela causing massive job loss, hurting the civilian population more than Maduro. In the energy sector especially Maduro was able to seize control of an oil company after French and Norway followed the US lead in leaving Venezuela. In response to such harsh measures from the United States, Maduro brought a case to the International Criminal Court in 2020 claiming they were a crime against humanity.
    Since taking office Biden has rolled back the "maximum pressure" policies and is attempting more targeted approach with his sanctions. The goal to remove Maduro from power has remained constant but now more consideration to the real impact is being taken. The United States is trying to remove Maduro because he has created a dire situation for the Venezuelan people, however if attempts to remove him can also hurt the Venezuelan people, careful attention must be paid to what really works and whether or not the consequences are greater than the benefits.

Links:
https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/overhaul-of-us-sanctions-policy-toward-venezuela-long-overdue
https://www.laprensalatina.com/venezuela-asks-icc-to-probe-us-sanctions-as-crime-against-humanity/
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-needs-assert-u-s-leadership-venezuela-maduro-exploits-negotiations-ncna1278382
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-support-factbox/guaido-vs-maduro-who-is-backing-whom-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1S62DY

Japan seeks to ease military restriction through defense transfer deal with Vietnam

East Asia has always been very interconnected in the history between nations and their conflicts and cooperation with one another. The East Asian countries have also had their fair share of economic and political pursuits, which in turn has led to many problems. Taiwan, Japan, North and South Korea, and China are all intertwined in this very unique socio-political atmosphere that always has some kind of event or issue at hand.

    

    In Recent news, some Japanese government officials have made some comments about Taiwan and how they are supporting Taiwan, and are concerned about a potential attack on Taiwan from China; especially with a suspected Chinese Submarine off the coast of Japan, but this of course could just be a coincidence. China has taken notice of these comments and newfound support for Taiwan and have not taken too kindly to these Pro Taiwan ideals. China has a history of not liking or supporting any country or person who thinks that Taiwan should be free, and this is especially problematic since China and Japan have been allies since World War Two. 


    Due to these recent developments Japan met Vietnam to discuss and sign a deal that would transfer both technology and defense equipment to Vietnam. The main goal of this deal would be expanding Japan's influence to solve regional security issues and the equipment and technology are meant to aid the Japanese military in its efforts to help increase security. In this deal Japan hopes to expand its military presence in the likes of Indonesia and other parts of Southwest Asia as well. Asian Media has dubbed this situation as nothing more than a dig at China and this does seem to be quite true.


Wang Yi, both a Chinese foreign minister and state councilor visited Vietnam to discuss Japan's motives with Nguyen Phu Trong, who is both a General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Vietnam Central Committee, and the Vietnamese prime minister Pham Minh Chinh. According to several reports Wang reminded these officials “China and Vietnam must abide by the political consensus already reached over the South China Sea issue and avoid any unilateral action that may complicate the situation and escalate disputes.” Whether or not Vietnam will listen to China has yet to be seen, but I do think it is important to keep an eye on this issue as any time East Asia has a conflict, it has several parties involved and can and could get messy. There is also the possibility of tariffs and other economic outcomes which could spread to the rest of the world.


Sources:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234044.shtml

https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/parsing-japans-support-for-taiwan/

https://news.yahoo.com/japan-detects-suspected-china-submarine-074447208.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMuHVxxGF3FcfJDoAUCt3sLcgoE0gzAHps39kIycUka-tLmQgf6ycpwn85nUMRyrMSHM2BJran8U3W779ljhfp1m1MSlmlIs5PfPskuXK7QkatvAVSzk3SnbS3hAbUOShQoSlRZN5gbsAEgWUg2gvvb1ykixqYbl-6LHqxDfSQCa






On the 20th anniversary of 9/11, we briefly explore the economic impact of the tragedy

 20 years ago today, on the morning of September 11th, 2001, four commercial airlines were hijacked mid-flight by alQaeda terrorists. This terrorists attack would ultimately kill 3,000 Americans, injure another 25,000 and send shockwaves throughout a whole nation. On the 20th anniversary of this attack, we dive inside the immediate economic affects that took place.


For New York- In Manhattan, New York the World Trade Center buildings, more commonly known as the Twin Towers were directly hit by aircrafts resulting in their collapse soon after. These 110 story buildings were home to financial firms and 400+ other top-tier businesses. So how did this tragedy more specifically affect the New York economy? It did so in a variety of ways. First, through the cost of the loss of life. The value of life lost in 9/11 was valued at $24 billion, that includes the $10 billion the people who died at the World Trade Center would’ve received in income. Next, was the cost to rebuild. To replace New York’s lost and destroyed infrastructure costed $21.8 billion. Overall, when factoring in the lost supplies, utilities, equipment and cleanup on top of the mentioned infrastructure and value of life, the direct toll of the attacks costs $55 billion. 


For Airlines - The terrorists compelled their attacks with the use of American commercial flights, which were unfortunately full of civilian life. This immediately inserted fear in all Americans when it came to flying. As a result, the airline industry immediately took a massive hit. From 2001 to 2002, the U.S. air industry reported $19.6 billion in losses. While from 2001 to 2010, the airline industry suffered $74 billion in loses. In order to prevent future attacks and create a sense of security to the American people, airlines needed to add extra security at airports. The TSA, (Transportation Security Administration) took control of this mission with the aid of increased funding, which comes from American taxpayers. Their 2020 proposed budget was $7.79 billion. With this extra security comes longer waiting, which was reported to cause a loss of $10 billion a year in lost time following 9/11/2001. To counter lost time and flying all-together Americans started to drive more instead of flying. With an abundance of increased drivers, comes increased driving deaths. It’s reported that as many as 2,300 driving deaths could be attributed to the terrorist attacks. The estimated death total costs from increased driving is reportedly $19 billion. Fear was evident following the attacks, as 9/11 was estimated to bring $61 billion in losses to the travel industry- excluding airline travel. 


For the Nation - The attacks on 9/11 sent a shockwave throughout the entire nation, despite it only directly appearing in a few parts. This shockwave brought fear, distraught, and loss with it. The economic loss it brought was significant in various aspects. The US real GDP saw a 0.5% decrease instantly after the attacks, as the increased external war and internal conflict proceeded to negatively affect the GDP growth in the year of the event. The job market too was impacted as 9/11 reportedly resulted in an 0.11% increase in the unemployment rate, which amounts to 598,000 jobs lost. The attacks also fueled debt creation and assets inflation, particularly in real estate, while simultaneously extending the March recession by causing the economy to retract by 1.7%. The Department of Homeland Security gained traction following the attacks of 9/11, and then exploded. Increases in defense spending related to the 9/11 attacks costs $589 billion by 2011 alone. Within that cost of $589 billion, is $110 billion of national intelligence spending for domestic intelligence efforts only. Meanwhile, the cost of war and terrorism skyrocketed for the United States as well.


The horrific attacks on 9/11 will never be forgotten. Meanwhile the economic affects of 9/11 will never go uncounted for. 


Undoubtedly, as said by Former United States Secretary of State Colin Powell, “You can be sure that the American spirit will prevail over this tragedy.”