After conducting a hypothetical study of a trade war, experts at the University of Pennsylvania claim that a trade war could potentially wipe out the gains from the tax cuts offered by the Trump administration. So far the US has offered exceptions to Canada and Mexico to be exempted from tariffs temporarily. However, China and the European Union have already said that any tariffs imposed by the US are likely to be met with retaliation. The Trump administration seems to be pretty confident about the unlikelihood scenario of a trade war and is optimistic that even if there is such a situation "Trade wars are good and easy to win". Analysis indicates that this could cause losses to the economy of up to 200 billion dollars over the next 10 years and about 1.4 trillion dollars by the year 2040. Of course, this is just an analysis of a hypothetical situation, the results could be much worse than what is predicted.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/14/news/economy/trade-war-economic-cost/index.html
Friday, March 16, 2018
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Rule Based Response To Trump On Tariffs
I was expecting to wake up Monday morning with the news that Europe had secured an exception to the tariffs on aluminum and steel that Trump announced last week. I didn't, and this article is the newest update on the European response to potential US tariffs.
Just about every major leader of the EU has put out a catch sound bite against the tariffs -- this article quotes Jean Claude Juncker as saying "Make trade, not war" and another leader as referencing the European-US "special relationship." The article also says that the first counter tariffs that the EU will institute will be orange juice, bourbon, denim, peanut butter and cranberries. This article reports a tense exchange between Trump and the EU Trade Commissioner, pointing out that the EU has a 10% tariff on US cars, but the US has a 25% tariff on trucks and pickups. What comes across in this article is a communication breakdown between the two bureaucratic bodies and the European wish to settle the disagreements without having to take it to the WTO.
Another though I had was if Europe, Canada and Mexico all end up exceptions -- what state would actually be seriously effected by these tariffs? We know there are already tariffs targeting China, and that the US isn't in the top 10 countries that China exports steel and aluminum to.... so if Europe successfully gets an exception, who do these effect?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/meps-back-commission-on-rule-based-response-to-trump-on-tariffs/
Just about every major leader of the EU has put out a catch sound bite against the tariffs -- this article quotes Jean Claude Juncker as saying "Make trade, not war" and another leader as referencing the European-US "special relationship." The article also says that the first counter tariffs that the EU will institute will be orange juice, bourbon, denim, peanut butter and cranberries. This article reports a tense exchange between Trump and the EU Trade Commissioner, pointing out that the EU has a 10% tariff on US cars, but the US has a 25% tariff on trucks and pickups. What comes across in this article is a communication breakdown between the two bureaucratic bodies and the European wish to settle the disagreements without having to take it to the WTO.
Another though I had was if Europe, Canada and Mexico all end up exceptions -- what state would actually be seriously effected by these tariffs? We know there are already tariffs targeting China, and that the US isn't in the top 10 countries that China exports steel and aluminum to.... so if Europe successfully gets an exception, who do these effect?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/meps-back-commission-on-rule-based-response-to-trump-on-tariffs/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)