Saturday, April 1, 2017

Europe is suddenly the hot new trade in the stock market

According to the article, because the Brexit has brought too much uncertainty and chaos, investors have been taking European market as a replacement of England. Some economists still believe that market participants have misunderstood the European equities and believe the European equities, especially financials, gonna perform better n 2017. The article said, besides the uncertainty brought by the Brexit, the Trump rally also brings the US market to be sluggish and this pushes cash flow to Europ. According to Bank of America Merrill Lync, over the past week, investors pulled $800 million from U.S. stock funds and pushed $1.9 billion to their European counterparts, the largest inflow in 60 weeks. The Germany, France and Italy stock indexes have all posted multiyear highs Friday. What's more, the relatively stable political situation after the Brexit relieves investors' worries. 
Furthermore, KKR has raised the its full-year GDP forecast for Europe from 1.4 percent to 1.7 percent and identified 4 "paradigm shift" including increased focus on fiscal rather than monetary policy, a move toward deregulation, an inflow of capital and heightened volatility driven by central bank stimulus efforts. Some other economists who are optimistic to the European market provide reasons including the fading deflation threat; a cheap euro compared to other global currencies; economic uncertainty that is abating; a more optimistic outlook on corporate profits as expressed through upward earnings revisions; and more tepid investor sentiment in Europe compared to the U.S. 
I'm looking forward to seeing how Eropean market gonna develop under the situation that there is too much uncertainty of not only US and Bratian markets but also East Asian markets. Relatively stable environment seems to a great advantage for European market. 
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/europe-is-suddenly-the-hot-new-trade-in-the-stock-market.html

The Economist: An improbable global shortage: sand

Sand is the world's largest extracted material. It is used to make concrete and asphalt and a lower grade is used to produce glass and electronics. Additionally, sand is used in vast quantities to enlarge regions like singapore which is now 20% larger than it was in 1965 or in China which has built artificial islands. Even though it may seem plentifu there is not enough of it. Dessert sand is too fine for most commercial purposes. unfortuntately the shortage grows as people extract it faster than it is imported. This is even causing problems for islands  in the Caribbean to absorb stormy weather.

However there is hope.  Until the price of sand rises, people will continue to not use alternative means like recycling concrete and asphalt, or crushing rock. But as the price continues to rise alternatives are looking much more attractive. This is an extremely interesting case that describes what could happen when consumers consume too much of a natural resource.

Article

Leaving the Euro Would Be Devilishly Difficult

This article poses many possible scenarios for the future of the euro and the European Union, given many factors like Brexit and the financial crisis in Greece.  If one or more members (like Greece) quit the European Union, would that actually save the euro?  Greece is clearly a lame duck, its GDP per person has fallen by 45% since late 2009 and unemployment rates have reached nearly 50%.  This is astonishing.  To make matters worse, the International Monetary Fund anticipates that Greece will never be able to repay its debts, which have reached 180% of the nation and continue to rise.  Despite their impending economic doom, Greece’s government has steadfastly rejected more austerity measures.  The article argues that Greece has not already departed from the European Union in part due to a lack of orderly procedures; if the process for leaving the euro were more clearcut, it is possible that a Greek withdrawal would become more attractive.  On the other hand, EU and other officials say that it is impossible to leave.  However, what would actually happen if Greece were to withdraw? The article explains that existing euro notes could continue to be used, and most Greek banks would go bust, but more stringent capital controls could be enacted.  Additionally, the ECB could provide the Bank of Greece with plenty of liquidity, and at the end of the day, the economy (particularly the tourist industry) would reap large benefits from a substantial devaluation.  A Greek departure is a frightening prospect for EU member countries; if Greek managed to leave the euro, the myth that there is no way out of the euro would be “instantly exploded” and perhaps Portugal or Italy would follow, resulting in a collapse.  The author of this article argues that this is an exaggerated prediction; Greece accounts for only 2% of the EU's GDP and would therefore not have the catastrophic impacts anticipated by many economists.  The second main objection, of course is the potential cost of “Grexit.”  Interestingly, some economists have suggested that Germany should leave the euro and rejoin later at a higher rate.  The argument is that the underlying causes of the euro’s problems are Germany’s strong competitiveness and its huge current-account surplus.  This idea, though is politically implausible.  One thing is for sure, the future of the European Union is growing increasingly unstable, and some action needs to be taken to if the Union and the euro are to be preserved.  

"Leaving the Euro Would Be Devilishly Difficult." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 25 Mar. 2017. Web. 01 Apr. 2017.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21719195-it-would-not-however-be-impossible-leaving-euro-would-be-devilishly-difficult

Friday, March 31, 2017

Vice President Pence’s “never dine alone with a woman” rule isn’t honorable. It’s probably illegal.

This issue was brought into the news this week when the Washington Post ran a piece on Karen Pence, the wife of our current vice president, and reminded readers of something Mike Pence said in 2002: He does not eat alone with a woman or attend an event where alcohol is being served unless his wife is present. The Twittersphere lit up like a Christmas tree with jokes and rants about Pence’s wife-rule. It’s not clear whether Pence still adheres to this practice, but there are men who do.

The Atlantic reports, such arrangements are especially common within marriages between religious conservatives of various stripes. (It need not be only men who follow such strictures, but the emphasis is often on male temptation.) On Capitol Hill, where the work days are long and individuals spend long hours away from their families, some Congressmen will not travel alone in a car with a female staffer, the National Journal has reported. Some politicians set gender-neutral rules that have a side effect of keeping them from being alone with women — such as excluding any staff from the office before 7 am or after 7 pm — but others clearly apply special rules to women.

Employers are not permitted to classify employees on the basis of gender without proof that sex is a bona fide occupational qualification for a particular job. A Pence-type rule could never satisfy this test. A male boss cannot casually separate certain jobs, tasks, or opportunities for men only.

Women have been shut out of equal employment opportunity for all of history. It’s long past time the doors to power and opportunity were opened, whether after hours, on a trip, or, in Pence’s world, working dinner with a male boss.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Economy grew 2.1% in Q4, faster than believed


This article mentions how there is strong economic growth in Q4. Specifically, the article mentions how consumer confidence (CC) has reached an all time high since the last sixteen years. This high consumer confidence suggests that the economy is in spending mode and not in saving mode. This high consumer confidence suggests that the economy is in expansionary mode and thus economic growth will be present.
          The article also mentioned how exports fell 4.5% and imports grew more than 9%. Since there is an increase in imports, this suggests that the dollar is strong and that other countries/currencies prefer to export to USA to receive income in dollars rather than import from USA.
          However, it will be interesting to see what will happen to the economy next in terms of economic growth and if consumer spending will continue to increase or will a hike in interest rates lead to a more saving and investment culture? I think that when inflation increases then the government needs to implement a contractionary policy so as to get the economy into saving mode and to combat inflation. 

Link: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/30/economy-grew-21-q4-faster-than-believed/99793582/