Friday, May 2, 2014

China's Transition

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21601564-leaders-discover-some-transparency-can-help-make-society-more-stable-right-know

This is the best example of a change in the Chinese economic system. An opening up of the system will help economists better judge and make predictions for the economy. People can study the real story of China better and understand the economic system of China.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Age Invaders

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21601248-generation-old-people-about-change-global-economy-they-will-not-all-do-so

The article by the economist talks about the shift in the demographics that will happened around the world in 25 years. This is a widely discussed topic today and economists say that the entire global politics will have to change in order to adjust for these changes. The authors talks about three channels through which the demography influences the economy: changes in the size of the workforce, changes in the rate of productivity growth, and changes in the pattern of saving. By examining those three channels we can estimate how the economy will shape up in the future. The trend shows that there are more workers in the labor force past the age of 65 today. This means that the new policies either extended retirement age or cut back on the supply of pensions. There is also a discussion of privatizing Social Security, which posses both opportunities and threats.

I would be interested to see what solutions do you have to resolve a problem that we will all face in not so distant future.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Twitter Offers Investors Silver Lining but No Rainbow

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2014/04/29/twitter-offers-investors-silver-linings-but-no-rainbow/

Twitter has been struggling in the 6 months since it became a public company, not because it is not doing well but because there has not been enough user growth.  More and more advertisers are signing on, but user growth is relatively stagnant.  Instagram and Whatsapp have both surpassed Twitter in the amount of users.  However, the company and investors are still holding out hope that growth will increase and the company will continue to do well based on its business model.  

Monday, April 28, 2014

A Billion Shades of Grey

Focusing on the increasing aged population, this article looks at the old population as they continue to participate within the work force well into retirement years. 65% of well-educated older american workers are working significantly longer period than their only high-school degree counterparts 32%. By working into their retirement, older educated workers are able to reap the rewards from their skill for much longer, increasing their savings for a future period or to give through inheritance. This will contribute to inequality as that inheritance gets passed down. Over the next 20 years the population of 60 year olds will double and will mean many more people collecting pensions, while the higher educated work force will be able to increase the productivity, this will hurt other countries with high population of uneducated workforce like China. Technological advance will allow for more skill from the older population, requiring less physical work to be done and more mentally based. This differs from manual labor which become more difficult as the body ages.

A Billion Shades of Grey

Comcast to shed 3.9 Million Subscribers

As most people know, for the past several months, the cable company Comcast has been attempting to purchase Time Warner Cable.  Doing so would increase Comcast subscription numbers by 50%, and also narrow down what few cable options you have.  Comcast has argued that its purchase would not limit cable options since Comcast and TWC provide services in different places.  However, it does not seem so with this latest move.  It sounds horrific that Comcast is going to simply trade consumers with another firm.  I think this really shows the signs that Comcast has obtained or already had a monopoly over digital cable.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/28/us-charter-communi-comcast-idUSBREA3R0N620140428

The New Censors of Hanoi

The article mentioned how the artists, authors in the north of Vietnam has been giving up on their ideas for a 'compensation' of material stuffs.
This is a common way to deal with defiant minds in socialism, when the government either make a 'buy out' incentive or punishment incentive. However, the fact that artists can make a deal with the government may mean that the condition is still 'live-able'. Even the media is controlled by the government, people are still aware of what is going on, the corruption in the parties' member, the political fight, or the nepotism.
And interestingly, to the author, it seems to happen only in Hanoi, instead of the whole nation.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/opinion/the-new-censors-of-hanoi.html?ref=opinion

U.S. - Japan Trade Talks

U.S. - Japan trade talks yielded no major breakthroughs this past Thursday,spelling trouble for the Trans-Pacific Free Trade Agreement.  The latest hangups are Japan wanting to protect its agricultural sector, and the U.S. wants to protect U.S. automakers from Japanese competition. While several rounds of negotiations over a couple of years have ensued with no major gains, these talks have the potential to import quotas and lower tariffs and open Pacific Industries in the U.S.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/24/news/economy/obama-tpp-trade/index.html?iid=SF_E_River

Recovery in the Job Market

This article points to research done by the National Employment Law Project that indicates that a greater number of jobs in middle- and high-paying industries were lost than low-wage jobs during the recession, but the greatest job growth in the economic recovery has happened in low-wage industries. In particular, fast food restaurants and strip malls have been hiring at a much higher rate than law firms and health care industries.

With a shrinking middle class that has lost its traditional manufacturing base, economists are worried about a greater stratification of classes and higher income inequality. Some recommend raising the minimum wage, a policy that has been opposed by many Republicans and business owners. Others suggest a need to vamp other social safety programs in order to support low-wage workers and reduce income inequality. Others are wondering what the middle class will look like if jobs continue to be created in low-wage industries and if high-wage industries catch up in job creation. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/business/economy/recovery-has-created-far-more-low-wage-jobs-than-better-paid-ones.html?hp&_r=0

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Ambitious New PM Forges Ahead Against Corruption, Towards Bridge Building

The Serbian National Assembly has just approved former First Deputy PM Aleksandar Vučić as the country's new Prime Minister. Vučić has a storied political history, particularly with respect to tabling his nationalism in favor of stronger ties with the European Union. As with many aspiring new members, the EU imposes requirements on potential new member nations to improve their stability, especially prior to joining the monetary union. Vučić's approach to this seems sufficiently fresh: in a bombastic speech to the assembly, the new Prime Minister declared that they shall sleep and eat in the parliament building until market-oriented reforms are passed by a July deadline. Since Vučić seems to still enjoy majority support, his term may yield a new approach for how war-torn transition economies fare.

Warren Buffett Calls Out Coke's 'Excessive' Executive Pay Plan

The renowned investor, Warren Buffett, the owner of Berkshire Hathaway is the largest share owner in Coca Cola's stock (KO). Recently, Coke's Chairman and CEO Muhtar Kent presented an equity plan at the company's annual shareholder meeting this past Wednesday. This has been a very controversial plan, but Muhtar Kent maintains the pay-for-performance plan is in line with the company's goals. Warren Buffett was not convinced by Coke's CEO and abstained from voting at the annual shareholder meeting. Hedge fund manager David Winters argued the plan will dilute Coke's existing shareholder value by 14.2%. The plan based on one equity investment will award executives with $13 billion over four years, which Winters claims will be taken from shareholders. The fundamental purpose for firms in capitalism is to maximize shareholder wealth, but it appears this plan might not accomplish this goal. On April 23, 2014 Coke's equity plan passed without Buffett's vote. There was much discussion about Buffett's decision to abstain from voting. He did not agree with the plan, but instead of voting against it he abstained. I believe that he assumed the plan would pass even if he voted against the equity plan. However, if he did vote against the plan, Coke investors would likely overreact and possible sell the stock which would drive down share price, thus decreasing Mr. Buffett's profitability. By abstaining, he made it clear to Coke's executives that he did not agree with the equity plan, but did not cause a panicked sell-off of shares. A great tactical move by Mr. Buffett, but the fact remains for Coke its largest share owner does not exactly see "eye-to-eye" with the executive team and could create potential problems considering how significant Mr. Buffett's actions have on the market.

http://www.insidecounsel.com/2014/04/25/warren-buffett-calls-out-cokes-excessive-executive

Another BRIC out of the wall?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/03/emerging-markets?zid=295&ah=0bca374e65f2354d553956ea65f756e0

This article discusses the potential future of Russian economy. In 2001 Russia has been included to the list of BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) as he emerging markets with a lot of importance for the global economic community. Russia has shown the best performance out of the four countries, primarily due to the commodity boom.

The chain of recent events with Ukraine have significantly damaged Russia's position in the world and its future forecast. Foreign investors, who were very enthusiastic about Russia's growth, have voiced their concerns with sanctions having negative effect on Russia's economy. Foreign investment is declining and will continue to until the situation is resolved. Forecast predict Russian economy to grow 1% in 2014 and 2% in 2015.


Rebirth of America's dead factories



There is a resurgence for manufacturing factories in the U.S. The article quotes the president of Industrial Reality Group Stuart Lichter, “Demand for closed factories has picked up since the recession”. International firms have also dramatically shifted their production to the U.S. as a way to grow their business and cut costs. This is interesting since the norm for the past decade or so for international business has been to use Chinese factories as a hub for manufacturing, not the other way around. This may be positive for the U.S. overall by creating new jobs and rejuvenating idle assets, as there are thousands of closed factories, industrial plants and military bases that have been idle for many years. If manufacturing begins to boom in the U.S. this may change details of our economic situation in many ways. 

Many low-wage workers not protected by minimum wage

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/23/smallbusiness/minimum-wage-exemptions/index.html?iid=SF_E_River


Recently, President Obama has proposed raising the country's minimum wage rate. The writer looks at the unfortunante group who will not recieve any benifit from the wage increase because certain rules make them exempt from receiving minimum wage.

Here are some examples of people who do not have to receive minimum wage:


  • Disabled workers 
  • People who work for very small businesses 
  • Teenage trainees 
  • Tipped workers
  • Home care aids 
  • delivery people 


China's Enticing Attempt

It seems very converse to think that Chinese population hardly contributes to their own economy, but this is the truth. Except for in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhour and Shenzhen, Deng Hong is beginning to implement infrastructure that promotes further spending. He aims to slightly reverse the trend of saving in China to incorporate slightly more spending. They recently build the Global Centre which is a meant to symbolize consumption - an increasingly essential ingredient of China's economic development, according to the article. But this article suggests that these are only small steps that China is going to. They prescribe further measures that China should be taking for the country to really take off economically. While these policy prescriptions could easily aid the country, what does this mean for the United States in term of economic power? How will this effect the international system?


http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21600801-chinese-consumers-are-spending-plenty-they-could-do-even-better-billion-shoppers

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient

According to the article, the U.S. economy began expanding in June 2009, and after 58 months, the recovery is one of the most sluggish, based on the high unemployment and low GDP growth rates.
Economists and politicians offer numerous explanations for the slow recovery. Republicans blamed Democrats for tax increases, debt and regulations, that have added uncertainty to the economy while Democrats blame Republicans for withholding support for stimulus spending when the economy needs a boost and brinkmanship during fiscal battles.

Some economists attribute the unusually weak growth to the continuing effects of the financial crisis as these crises historically generated long-lasting drags on financial conditions. Others say that that the labor force and productivity are growing slowly while consumption and savings are reduced compared to the past. At the same time, some policy makers are concerned about the instabilities of the Fed.
On the other hand, it is believed that a typical recession remains distant because if boom must precede bust, no bust is in sight since growth has been so slow.

At least, we should not be worried for now as it looks like the economy is still growing and another recession seems far away.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304626304579510070088630140?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304626304579510070088630140.html

Anti-Corruption Group Finds Fault With European Union

Transparency International, a prominent anti-corruption group, is prepared to announce a 250 page report about corruption in the European Union.  Some of the findings included in this report are that the Parliament was accepting money for softening tobacco legislation and a form of lawmaking that is done behind closed doors called trilogues, which are not able to be subject to much public scrutiny.  Transparency International is calling for a "legislative footprint,"disclosing all input received from lobbyists when making legislation. It is also being recommended that they establish a European Public Prosecutor.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/business/international/anti-corruption-group-finds-fault-with-european-union.html?ref=international&_r=0

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Korea vs. U.S.: Executive salary gap


The companies recently reported on the annual salaries paid to these executives based on laws calling for disclosure for those who are registered on the corporate board and receiving 500 million won ($481,000) or more.
Most of the population seemed to think that these executives were getting paid too much. 
Out of the 200, the average pay package of the highest-paid 20 executives reached $22.71 million. 
Back in Korea, the highest-paid 20 executives out of the 640 who were obligated to reveal their salaries were found to be receiving an average 8.44 billion won. 
This shows that the U.S. executives were paid about three times the amount of their Korean counterparts.
Among the U.S. companies, 200 executives were paid more than $2 million annually. Their pay packages included not only monthly salaries, but bonuses and stock options as well.

 http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20140414001165

Powdered Alcohol - Good or Ridiculous?

The federal government recently approved the sell of powdered alcohol by a company called Palcohol. The founder of Palcohol was inspired to come up with an alcohol pack during activities like hiking and camping without having to carry heavy bottles of wine, beer or spirits. One package weighs about an ounce and is small enough to fit into any pocket. When used as directed, the consumer adds five ounces of liquid to the powder, creating a beverage equal to a standard mixed drink. There are several versions to pick from such as distilled vodka, cosmopolitan, mojito, etc. 

The company expects Palcohol to be on sale this fall.

Note: snorting alcohol powder is bad idea...

New-home sales tumble in March; prices rise


The spring home-buying season has not started out so well. Single family home sales dropped 14.5% from February to march, this came as a surprise as economist predicted an increase after February. Some economists blame this winter’s crazy weather but others noted the current high prices and high mortgage rates.  The economy is still recovering, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the future.


Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Judges May Overturn Decision on Two Former Traders

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/appeals-court-raises-doubts-about-governments-insider-trading-case/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

This article discusses a trial in the United States Court of Appeals between two former hedge fund traders, Todd Newman and Anthony Chiasson, and the government. The Court of Appeals has said to be questioning "whether the judge in the trail erred she instructing jurors". There was an hourlong hearing, including a three judge panel, that hinted that the decision might be overturned. This article outlines the hearing and discusses whether the Wall Street crackdowns are truthful. Mr. Bharara has had a sweeping campaign as a United States attorney to eliminate insider trading on Wall Street. Mr. Bharara's perfect record (80 insider trading convictions without a single defeat) is now in jeopardy.

The article not only discusses what went on in the hearing with Mr. Bharara, but states that "a judicial chiding here or there will not slow his momentum, and legal experts said the appellate court could very well uphold the insider trading convictions, A reversal, however, might undercut one of his greatest achievements".

The outcome of this appeal will be very influential on Wall Street and for Mr. Bharara's reputation.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Money From Nothing

Chronic deflation may keep Bitcoin from displacing its fiat rivals

This article examines the bitcoin, its growth (from $490 million to $7.9 billion) over the last year, and its status as a "real" form of money. It views the success and allure of the bitcoin by looking at its capability to be: a unit of account, a medium of exchange, and a store of value--the three characteristics that define "money."

The article argues it is best used as a medium of exchange, as it can be quickly and cheaply transferred across the globe in exchange for goods, services, or other currencies. The author questions its stability as a store of value, considering a major recent heist of nearly 6% of outstanding bitcoins from the Mt. Gox exchange. Also, the author doubts the bitcoin's chances at being a unit of account, based on volatile values and people's tendencies to view bitcoins in terms of dollars or euros, instead of having its own intrinsic value. In conclusion, the article views the eventual capping at 21 million units as a method to deter constant central bank meddling with the currency. It also discusses that natural inflation is good for money and that the future of the bitcoin will undoubtedly be very interesting.

The fuel of the future, unfortunately

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21600987-cheap-ubiquitous-and-flexible-fuel-just-one-problem-fuel-future

Coal may be dirty and have numerous environmental costs such as increased emissions of Carbon Dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Coal mines are also known to be very dangerous places to work. Despite the numerous problems associated with coal, it is still a crucial source of energy and economic output in many nations and may prove to be beneficial for developing countries that less focused on the environment. The coal industry is one that is truly consumer friendly because its prices are not determined by cartels.

America's Shale-gas boom has had an effect on coal production in the U.S. Duke Energy and AEP have both shut down coal-fired plants. Still, The Federal Energy Information Administration predicts that the U.S. will still be generation 22% of its electricity from coal in 2040, which is only a 4% decrease from current output. Another effect on the coal industry from America's Shale-gas boom is that coal prices have significantly decreased, and much more coal is now being exported. Coal companies are becoming increasingly concerned that their decreasing revenue will soon not be able to cover the high cost of capital and production in the coal industry.

The Cost of Closure- Malaysian Flight 370

The ongoing search for answers in the case of the missing Malaysian flight 370 is far from over. The families of the 239 passengers are attempting to keep up hope, but searching at least for answers and closure. The search has been ongoing for 44 days and little concrete information has been offered up. Officials have decided to prolong the search and rescue efforts which could cost an estimated quarter of a billion dollars (US). This cost estimate includes the use of various underwater search drones, currently out on their eight mission for information.
With the month long battery lifespan of the black pinging boxes over, there are increased research and development efforts to create new black boxes whose batteries could last up to 3 months. No matter the cost, lives and answers are the primary concern.

Sub-Saharan Africans Pay Twice as Much to Send Money Home


Compared to Latin America and Southeast Asia, Africa pays twice as much to send money home.  Transactions fees cost $1.8 billion annually.  This is due to the decrease of transactions costs in Latin America and Southeast Asia but in Sub-Saharan Africa the costs have stayed the same.  It is ridiculous that the poorest people in the world are paying the highest price.  But the expatriates have no other choice, they must send money home.  The Oversees Development Institute calls for better regulation of money transfers and banks, blaming the high fees on the lack of competition. Western union, who makes up a high amount of the remittance transfers says there is not way around the fees.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/4/17/african-remittanceseconomy.html

Saturday, April 19, 2014

For China and Japan, the Economic Challenges Ahead are Similar

When it comes to economic policy, Beijing and Tokyo have very similar goals. Both countries want to fight against the changes in their economy due to the mounting debt and rapid growth in population. In China, the government is trying to move the economy towards more domestic consumption and growth in the service sector. In Japan, the government is trying to haul the economy out of years of deflation and lethargic growth. 

Faster growth is hard to achieve and much of the hard work has yet to come. Both countries are going to face a tougher challenge of making their economies and business environments more efficient and competitive. "For both China and Japan, the problems are deep-seated and structural". It's not about being able to cut interest rates to stimulation growth, they have to do a lot more. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/business/international/for-china-and-japan-the-economic-challenges-ahead-are-similar.html

Friday, April 18, 2014

China and its future

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21600797-2030-chinese-cities-will-be-home-about-1-billion-people-getting-urban-china-work

Great article building on the future of China. I think it covers a lot in class and builds on it. This is because, now we can understand a lot of the context more than we would have before we took this class. China's urbanization is what helped increase GDP, but now that is a problem and how China will react will define the Economic Systems class of the future.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Fears Grow Over China Property Flameout

In the United States, we can look back and remember our housing crisis, it just happened a few years ago.  China now might have one looming on the horizon.  But, there's a possibility that while it may happen, foreign investors will largely be protected as because much of China's markets are closed to foreigners, which gives some relief to the world as they remembered some of the global fallout from America's housing bubble bursting.  But the internal fallout could be just as bad, hitting China's banking sector.

However, promising signs show, such as resilience in the labor market, which isn't starting to fall, indicating that perhaps the future is not as bad as it might seem.

Read the article here.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

The best place for entrepreneurs: Detroit


Entrepreneurs claim that Detroit is one of the best cities to start their new business ventures because there is such flexibility in the city.  The city is filled with unused buildings and many people seeking job opportunities, all possible at a fraction of the cost.  Crime rates are still one of the most daunting challenges in the city; however receiving loans for banks is also extremely difficult.  The bankrupt city claims that businesses and residents are still functioning, and the arrival of entrepreneurs will hopefully spark excitement.  Inexpensive real estate costs are a huge perk to business ventures, however the sustainability of their shops and homes is struggling.  But the pros are outweighing the cons, and there is much hope for Detroit.  There are nearly 50 programs that support developing ventures.  Whether in the technology, mentorship, food, retail, or advertising industry, Detroit is doing its best to make a comeback.    
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/business/smallbusiness/entrepreneurs-seeking-a-place-to-start-a-business-find-a-surprising-answer-detroit.html?ref=business
 

Monday, April 14, 2014

Toyota Recalls 6.4 million vehicles


Toyota is recalling 6.4 million vehicles globally over five separate issues. Some 3.5 million vehicles are being recalled to replace a spiral cable attached to the driver's side airbag that may be damaged when the steering wheel is turned and result in the airbag not being deployed in a crash. However, Toyota said it was not aware of any vehicle crashes, injuries or fatalities caused by the numerous conditions. This is not the first time a recall of similar magnitude is being done by Toyota. The latest recall, which affects 27 different models, is the fifth major one that the company has issued in recent months. Not surprisingly, these recalls have had negative effects on Toyota’s sales (revenue). However, recalls are not uncommon in the industry. For example, General Motors is in the middle of recalling millions of vehicles as well. Will Toyota once again weather the storm?

Heartbleed's Implications for the Banking Industry

First off, an irrelevant pet peeve: I hate stock graphics with flowing ones and zeros in the context of any computing-related news story. That the notion of code bugs is so prevalently dumbed down into the words "VIRUS" and "TROJAN" rendered floating amongst said binary bits is equally depressing. Of late, the so-called Heartbleed bug has come to the fore, and given its huge implications in numerous industries, reporters are already treating it as some arcane, science-fiction force. Although the gravity of the situation is not understated, the nature of it is certainly overstated.

Suppose you have a boss, who gives you a very specific set of instructions that must be followed to the letter. One of these instructions has enormous potential to be exploited by evildoers, but neither you nor your boss are aware of this. If a customer or client were to approach you and exploit this oversight right before your eyes, you might think, being an intelligent human being, that something really ought to be done about this flaw, as you serve the customer. Further suppose that your job is to find a customer's paperwork in their file, and hand it to them. Most customers will give you some files at the desk, whereupon you read the Boss's instructions:
  1. Process the files the customer just gave you and remember the amount of paperwork they said they submitted
  2. Go to the file cabinet
  3. Find the customer's file
  4. Get as much paperwork as the customer just said they gave you
  5. Give the new paperwork back to the customer
The typical customer might give you, say, 5 forms, so you process the 5 forms and give them 5 new forms from their file in the cabinet. Our Evil Customer, Eve, gave you 5 forms, but said she really gave you 65535 forms and expects 65535 forms back from the file cabinet. 65535 seems like a lot, but you remember your boss's directions to the letter: you process the 5 forms, remember that Eve gave you 65535 forms, find Eve's file, and give her 65535 new forms. Of course, Eve's file isn't even that big. After you pull Eve's 5 new forms from the file cabinet, it starts spilling over into other people's files, but you gather all of these anyway until you have 65535 forms, containing other customers' sensitive information. Eve thanks you for your help and leaves.

As you can plainly see, it's not that the entire bank is flawed to its core. The solution isn't to burn down the bank, nor to execute all current employees, but--as you probably gathered--to change Steps 1 and 4 so that you save the amount of paperwork they gave you, not the amount they said they gave you. If C programs could talk, they'd have alerted someone to this problem ages ago, as you would have in the bank scenario. See? This was far more straightforward to comprehend than looking at a graphic of the word "HACK" centered in a field of floaty green bits.

All of the code that enumerates these instructions is publicly available for anyone and everyone to view. While trusted institutions, like those to whom you give passwords, use OpenSSL and peruse its framework, criminal hacker rings and rogue government organizations scrutinize the code vigorously to try and find such vulnerabilities for their own use. Financial institutions may try to uphold a reasonable standard of trust, but so long as the standards they use are better understood by ill-intentioned persons, the entire financial system is compromised due to lack of trust.

In the short run, organizations will incur costs by having to flush databases and reencrypt the data therein, swap their private keys, and urge their customers to change their almost surely compromised credentials. I, like nearly everyone else, find myself overwhelmed by the prospect of changing so many passwords across the internet, so this is nothing short of an incredible nuisance. But financial institutions may see fit to prepare for such incidents in the future by forming coalitions to scrutinize certification algorithms as well as, or better than, criminals. It seems like a basic step to take, but organizing private groups and motivating them toward collective action for the greater good is never anything short of a challenge.

Eastern Ukraine Violence Brings ‘Crunch Time’ for U.S. and EU

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-13/-crunch-time-for-u-s-eu-as-pro-russians-battle-ukraine-forces.html

This article analyses the impact of further European and US involvement in Ukraine's crisis. The main discussion revolves around further economic sanctions from the West on Russian businesses. The problem here has to parts. One is the backlash the governments of the West are receiving from companies that do business in Russia. The second part is great uncertainty that further economic sanctions will have impact on Kremlin's decision to continue their detribalizing mission in Ukraine.

Russia has gone too far and Putin realizes it. The entire world understands the situation and the propaganda that Putin sells to his people. Russia lost great deal of legitimacy on the global stage but it maintains support of countries that have historically opposed the West. What is happening today has clear signs of the Cold War standoff but with Ukraine being a battleground. Russia's benchmark has fallen 8.5% since February and the ruble (Russian currency) has fallen in value, but that had little affect on Putin's actions.

Those the West has to make a critical decision about what sanctions actually work and will eliminate a chance of military intervention. Further economic sanction on energy and banking sectors will put strain on Russian economy but might not force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine.

World Bank and IMF Updates

At recent World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings, relief over the seeming emergence from the global financial crisis was undermined by worries about post-recession economies' ability to sustain economic recovery and growth efforts. Pointing to rates of deflation, lagging rates of investment, and concerns over the global economic implications of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, officials are concerned that countries will recover in the short term but be unable to sustain recovery in the medium and long terms. In addition, officials are worried about the tenuous nature of international investment rates in developing countries - without assured investment, the World Bank and IMF argue that development may stagnate.

I think this article reiterates the idea that investment in an economy creates a model for sustainable economic development. In addition, the idea that investing in the development of other economies can benefit the investor country because it creates potential trade and mutual development relations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/13/business/international/finance-officials-push-for-bold-action-to-sustain-economic-growth.html?ref=international

Three Expensive Milliseconds

Interestingly, the article announced that we are about to complete a tunnel, which costs hundreds of millions of dollars not to transport passenger or freight but to carry fiber-optic cable, which would save "three milliseconds" of the communication time between future markets of Chicago and the stock markets of New York. Wow! (and meanwhile, four years ago, we did cancel another "desperately needed new rail tunnel" nearby )
This expensive 3 million second is to serve the "high frequency traders". Obviously these traders must have benefited a lot to be able to influence someone to pass / or to pay for this tunnel. However, aren't these arbitrageurs? Yes, their value is that they get the market back to the equilibrium, which is important. However, they are not producing anything, they are not adding any value to the economy, and also not investing into the future, they are basically take advantage of the inefficient market ... by "millisecond".
Well if it is their money, they have the right to do it. If it is not they may have the power to do it. No matter what, personally it seems kind of wrong how much we value present (to the extent of millisecond) rather than the our future (education and environment) !

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/14/opinion/krugman-three-expensive-milliseconds.html?ref=opinion


Sunday, April 13, 2014

Singapore Maintains Currency Stance as Economic Growth Slows

Singapore Maintains Currency Stance as Economic Growth Slows

This Bloomberg article discusses the Central Bank of Singapore's decision to continue a gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar. This decision was made in an attempt to "curb inflation while supporting growth as the economy expanded less than analysts estimated last quarter." Singapore’s manufacturing sector grew 4.5 percent in the first quarter from 3 months prior, compared with 10.4 percent in the final 3 months of 2013. Services fell 1.8 percent in the same time frame, while construction expanded 10.7 percent. The article discusses the likely transfer of capital back to wealthier nations in the coming months if growth is not spurred in the city-state island. 
U.N. Climate Panel Warns Speedier Action Is Needed

It is no surprise that global warming is a problem, but we are now starting to find that it is a more pressing problem than we thought.  According to this article, there was a study done saying that if we do not start taking aggressive action against climate change, it will become extremely expensive, and almost impossible, to take action against it in the future.  Fortunately, we are finding that the world leaders are more supportive of environmental preservation than they have been in the past, so the likelihood of action being taken is higher, although, at this point, it is still not high enough.  Developing countries are using coal plants at an alarming rate, while wealthier, more developed nations are making adjustments to fight climate change more slowly.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/14/science/earth/un-climate-panel-warns-speedier-action-is-needed-to-avert-disaster.html?hp&_r=0

Unemployment in America: Closing the Gap

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21596529-americas-labour-market-has-suffered-permanent-harm-closing-gap

This article talks about the gap between potential labor and actual labor. The numbers look at the unemployment in America. It calls for concern in the idea that the amount of labor called for may be permanently stunted. This would be a major concern for America as unemployment would always remain high if that were the case. It is an interesting article if you are interested in unemployment and how it affects our economy.

More US Sanctions on Russia

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303873604579495991860073278?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj

The US has stated that they are prepared to "step up sanctions" against Russia if Russian military actions do not end in Ukraine. The article states that it is unclear how these sanctions can be effective in slowing the revolt. These sanctions will target Russian business sectors including mining, banking, and energy. This increase in sanctions is the most visible sign of US anger towards Russia and resulted from the Russian activists seizure of government buildings on Saturday.

Will these sanctions help end the violence? Or will Russian activists continue to ignore them?

The Future of Finance

We always pride ourselves in are free markets and say little government involvement is the best. However, the last financial crisis in the mortgage market was helped along by the subsidies and government insurance in banks. These policies increase risk-taking because if a bank is government back they don't feel the need to actual look in depth at their performance. The article says "governments should as far as they could treat financiers like any other industry, forcing bankers and investors to take as much of the risk as possible themselves. The more the state protected the system, the more likely it was that people in it would take risks with impunity."

If we continue on this path of state involvement and cradling of the financial markets we will mute the beneficial effects of finance. "Healthy financial markets speed up an economy, channeling credit to firms that need it. They can also make an economy fairer and more competitive, providing the funds for those without them to challenge incumbents. Modern finance is a more slanted system in which savings are drawn towards subsidies and tax distortions. Debt-fuelled housing goes wild while investment in machines and patents runs dry. All this dulls growth."

How do you think we should go about changing the state and federal involvement in the financial market?

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21600699-state-subsidies-and-guarantees-are-once-again-corroding-financial-sector-and-creating-new