Economy Fed won’t get key inflation data

Bureau employees were unable to gather the data due to the protracted government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not release the October CPI report. The Federal Reserve will meet in December without the new inflation data it typically relies on, as November's inflation report is also delayed.

The Fed is in a difficult situation as a result. In the absence of CPI, policymakers would be forced to make a significant interest rate decision without factoring in one of their most crucial indicators. This suggests the Fed will be cautious and wait for more precise information before making bold decisions or lowering interest rates.

We anticipate that the Fed will make specific decisions that impact markets, jobs, loans, and mortgages. However, given that the nation is unable to provide the fundamental flow of information it depends on, how can it accomplish that? It's similar to expecting a pilot to land an aircraft without instruments and then holding them accountable for a difficult landing.

This should serve as a warning. The system needs significant strengthening if our economic data can collapse so readily. This is true not only for policymakers but also for everyone whose everyday lives depend on steady, well-informed decisions. Until then, there will be more market fluctuations, more uncertainty, and more times when those in charge of the economy must work in the dark.

In summary, the missed CPI announcement serves as a reminder of how vulnerable our data infrastructure can be when politics gets in the way, the Fed operates somewhat in the dark, and markets are on edge.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/fed-wont-get-key-inflation-data-before-next-rate-decision-as-bls-cancels-october-cpi-release.html

Another Shutdown Affect

 The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not be releasing a full jobs report for October, as a result of the shutdown. October payroll data will be released alongside the full November data, but they won’t show Octobers unemployment rate as there was no way to collect it.

With this larger release, they are delaying the November release by over a week. This is significant because the information won’t be available for the final Fed meeting of the year. The article states that traders may be expecting a lower chance of another rate cut as a result of this problem. 

Franck, T. (2025, November 19). BLS October jobs data shows hiring continues, unemployment rate ticks down. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/bls-october-jobs-data.html

South Korea called to become less dependent on the USA

A Singaporean Economist is calling on South Korea to deepen ties with other Southeastern Asian countries rather than the USA to keep as a global trade partner.

"He also criticized the tendency of countries to act individually rather than collectively, citing ASEAN members’ unilateral responses to US tariffs. As a remedy, he proposed “pathfinder multilateralism” — a model in which a smaller group of willing nations establishes new rules or standards without waiting for universal consensus. The idea, he said, is to create coalitions that are “incentive-compatible,” ensuring cooperation holds because interests align."

https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10617826

Trump is right: He lowered some of your costs. But he also made many prices higher

 President Trump has doubled down on his message that prices are falling, especially for groceries, claiming that his economic agenda is delivering affordability. Yet, a closer look at the data reveals a more complicated picture. While he argues that inflation is “virtually none,” government statistics tell a different story: grocery prices are up, not down, and overall consumer inflation has risen during his second term. 

Critics say the administration’s approach risks underplaying the real pain felt by Americans. While some products have seen price relief, others continue to climb, making affordability a deeply uneven issue. This tension between political messaging and economic reality is turning affordability into a central battleground. One that could have serious political consequences as more voters voice frustration over rising costs. 

article: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/17/business/trump-prices-affordability

Tariffs raise beef prices again

     Recent beef price increases in the U.S. are a good example of how interconnected economic systems are and how policy decisions can create unintended consequences. Trump’s new tariffs on major beef suppliers such as like Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay cut down imports and raised costs, reducing supply the at the exact moment the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it has been in about 75 years. Ranchers can’t just increase production quickly because drought, high feed costs (made worse by the tariffs on fertilizers), and expensive equipment have already made it difficult to rebuild herds. Since cattle production takes years, the supply chain is slow to adjust. The tariffs didn’t just hit beef imports, they also increased the costs of farming machinery, repairs, and feed which all pushed domestic prices even higher. Meanwhile, global suppliers sent their beef to other countries, tightening the world supply available to the U.S. Even policy attempts to bring in more Argentine beef created uncertainty and caused cattle futures to fluctuate. All of these factors, from climate stress to tariffs to global trade diversion, on top of each other, showing how a single policy choice can ripple through an entire system and ultimately raise prices for consumers while still leaving ranchers struggling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/trump-tariffs-high-beef-prices.html

New York Fed met with Wall Street firms about key lending facility: FT

 The New York Fed recently held a private meeting with its primary dealer firms, Wall Street banks that trade US Treasuries,  due to strains on the short-term funding markets. The main point of the discussion was the standing repo facility(SRF). The SRF is a tool the Fed makes available for firms to swap collateral for cash. The Fed wants to use it more as a buffer against money market disruptors moving forward. 

    The meeting also highlighted growing concern about tight bank reserves and upward pressure on short-term borrowing costs tied to the repo market. Although the SRF exists, many institutions have been reluctant to use it. This is in part because doing so might signal financial weakness, which is never great to see. Overall, the Fed's message is simple: if it makes economic sense, borrow from the facility.

article: New York Fed met with Wall Street firms about key lending facility: FT

‘High stakes, uncertain gains’: Economic experts criticize Trump administration policies

Experts in the economic and finance industry raise questions about the Trump administration's recent policy decisions and their injection of uncertainty and risk into the U.S economy. Aggressive deregulation, trade tensions, and inconsistent messaging, according to economists, put long-term stability and investor confidence at risk. These experts conceded that tax-cuts and reduced oversight have benefitted some sectors; however, they believe that inflation, geo-politics, and market volatility may negate these benefits in the long-run. These actions showcase how government policy has a myriad of effects, both positive and negative, short-term and long-term. 

https://www.studlife.com/news/2025/11/16/high-stakes-uncertain-gains-economic-experts-criticize-trump-administration-policies

Retail Investors Are Reshaping U.S. Markets

 As retail investors play a increasing role in driving United States equity markets, their trading pattern is starting to begin to reshape how stocks move and how volatility surfaces form. In a recent discussion, Goldman Sachs' John Marshall explained that the surge of individual investor activity is creating new dynamics for market makers and institutional investors. This is fueled by options trading, social sentiment, and real time information access. These shifts can generate both challenges and opportunities, these include short term volatility bursts, and differentiated demand for derivatives. While the conversation highlights emerging trends, Goldman Sachs stresses that the views are informational and should not be taken into account for investment advice. 

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/rise-of-the-retail-investor

September jobs report will be out Thursday as first data since shutdown starts to trickle out

     As the government reopened this week that means that September job reports will become available this Thursday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the real earnings will be out Friday and that the October CPI report may never be produced because the data could not be produced collected in person. They also announced that the unemployment rate excluded because of this as well. Economist say the pause created a "data fog" that has forced investors and policymakers to guess their way through the next couple of months. 

    The political pressure that came of this has been heating up in Washington with a group of Democrat senators pressing the administration for answers. They accused it of dragging its feet on releasing the information that business. They stated " the Trump Administration failure to release data or provide a clear schedule for the release of delayed data leaves businesses and policymakers without access to critical economic information." Agencies like the BLS, the BEA and the Commerce Department are still sorting out what can be salvaged and when delayed reports such as personal income, spending and GDP can be reschedule. The hope for the future is that everything will be under control by the December meetings but only time will tell.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/14/heres-where-things-stand-on-when-the-government-will-start-releasing-key-economic-reports.html

September jobs report will be out Thursday as first data since shutdown starts to trickle out

    The government shutdown essentially disrupted the normal flow of U.S. economic data, leaving Wall Street, policymakers, and investors squinting through what some economists called "data fog." With federal agencies reopening, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is finally rolling out delayed reports. They are beginning with the September nonfarm payroll release, and even with the backlog starting to clear, there is still a lot of uncertainty. Certain reports, such as the October CPI, cannot be recreated since those rely on in-person data collection, and that did not occur during the shutdown. Without these reports, it has led to the Federal Reserve and markets have leaned on secondary indicators, adding friction to an already tense policy environment. 

    On top of a logical mess, there's political heat building. Some democratic lawmakers are pressing the administration, arguing that past shutdowns didn't prevent the release of economic data. They are suggesting that the delays in reports could be intentional. Agencies like the BLS and BEA are asking for patience and saying they need time to rebuild schedules and verify the quality of what they are going to publish. However, in the meantime, economists are hoping the FED gets enough core reports before the December meeting. This is where the potential rate cut would occur, and until then, businesses, consumers, and policymakers are all stuck waiting for a clearer economic picture. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/14/heres-where-things-stand-on-when-the-government-will-start-releasing-key-economic-reports.html

US Justice Department heeds to Trump's demand to probe Epstein ties with Bill Clinton, JPMorgan

 

The U.S. Justice Department announced that it will follow President Donald Trump’s request to investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s ties to former President Bill Clinton and the bank JPMorgan. This means the government will look into whether Clinton or the bank had any inappropriate financial or personal connections with Epstein, who was involved in major crimes. The investigation is getting a lot of attention because it involves powerful people and a sensitive topic, and it raises questions about how deep Epstein’s network of relationships really went.

Trump pushed for this investigation partly to shift the spotlight away from his own past connection with Epstein, since people have questioned their relationship before. By directing attention toward Clinton and JPMorgan, Trump is trying to redirect the public conversation and put pressure on his political opponents instead of himself. This move is seen as a political strategy, especially because the timing suggests Trump wants to control the narrative and change what people are focusing on. To even stir up the pot a little more, there has been alleged rumors of Bill and Trump having a secret relationship.

Source : https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-justice-department-heeds-to-trumps-demand-to-probe-epstein-ties-with-bill-clinton-jpmorgan/articleshow/125340607.cms?from=mdr&utm_

$2,000 Tariff Checks Need Approval From Congress—After Trump Says They'll Come 'Next Year

This article talks about how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the proposed $2,000 “tariff checks” promoted by Donald Trump would require congressional approval before they could be issued. Trump has also stated that the checks could be issued starting next year, and households with high income, though not specifically defined, are excluded from receiving these checks.

While this plan might seem great and beneficial, the possibility of this plan even happening depends on congress and if they will approve this.

If passed, the checks could provide short-term financial benefits and relief for those who are in need, however there are risks that come with this. The project could cost hundreds of upwards of billions of dollars that could add inflationary pressure when the administration is also promising to lower prices. It goes without saying that this creates a potential conflict, and the both policies could possibly contradict each other. There is also a level of uncertainty that applies to who is eligible; many might feel excluded and neglected if they are not in contention for the checks. 

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/11/16/bessent-says-2000-tariff-checks-need-approval-from-congress-after-trump-says-theyll-come-next-year/

 

Crypto Bear Market Deepens, YTD Gains Erased

 This Article by Bloomberg editors Olga Kharif and David Pan discusses the crypto bear market that has erased recent gains in the digital currency marketplace. On October fifth, Bitcoin reached being up 30% year to date. Today, Bitcoin stands at up merely a 2 percent increase YTD, down over 20% in the past three months. Following president Trumps election in November Bitcoin rallied to an all time high of $126,251 on October sixth, only to begin tumbling four days later following the proposal of international tariffs from the Trump administration. 

Bitcoin relies upon Large institutional investors, and ETF's to be the provider of 'legitimacy' for Bitcoin. However, these large investors have begun to slowly and quietly begin to sellout of their positions.

 “The selloff is a confluence of profit-taking by LTHs, institutional outflows, macro uncertainty, and leveraged longs getting wiped out,” Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at Nannen said, in an interview with Bloomberg.  Bitcoin and the crypto markets are famously volatile, however many investors have begun to view the alternative currency as a hedge to inflation due to its stable performance over the past year. Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, claims that general consumer sentiment has fallen off significantly and the while cyclicality is nothing new in crypto there don't seem to be any natural bullish catalysts coming forward  in the near future.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-16/bitcoin-erases-this-year-s-gain-as-crypto-bear-market-deepens?srnd=homepage-americas

Trump tariffs are helping drive U.S. beef prices to new highs

    This CNBC article covers beef prices in the United States. Donald Trump is blaming the meat packers and U.S. cattlemen for rising beef prices, but the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration are affecting farm equipment and machinery which add to the surge in price. Brazil is the biggest producer and exporter of beef, and since the 50% tariff rate for Brazil, beef exports have been diverted to other markets such as China. Exports from other large beef producing countries such as New Zealand and Australia have also decreased. This pullback in exports does not help the American beef industry, but reduces supply and adds pressures in the already tight US supply chain. These negative effects of tariffs come when the U.S. cattle herd is at a near 75 year low and the consumer demand for beef has grown. 

    Cattle ranchers in the US have already had difficulties in recent years because of environmental factors such as drought, which diminished the amount of grasslands to feed herds, leading to higher costs of buying feed. Many farmers have faced even more expenses, as some fertilizers facing double-digit tariffs, raising the cost of growing already scarce crops used for animal feed. Many ranchers have expressed their frustration, with one saying that they are in one of the toughest cattle cycles in history.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/trump-tariffs-high-beef-prices.html