The US Economy is Weakening

      The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged businesses and economies around the globe. Many businesses have gone under due to a lack of staffing and many other regulations being unable to be followed. We have recently seen a new variant, the delta variant, really damage some businesses as they are just beginning to open up again. In August of 2021, job growth in America was terrible. This is demoralizing not only to the American people but also our economy as we were just beginning to dig ourselves out of the COVID-19 hole.

    We see a problem in businesses reopening as they cant find low-wage workers to staff. This leads to understaffing which leads to closing sooner which is less money for the business. This unfortunately doesn't look like it is going to change any time soon either. Some Americans have refused to get vaccinated along with refusing to get masks, now that the summer is over cold weather is coming leading many activities and meetings to be indoors in closed spaces, making the virus more susceptible to spread.

    The US economy is struggling and the job market is the source of it. Almost everywhere you go out to eat you see a hiring sign. Many restaurants are even offering higher wages but this still doesn't seem to work. Once jobless Americans begin to start working again, we will see a boost in our economy. Businesses will be open longer allowing them to make more money, also paying employees money in order for them to spend more money. This is a big issue we face right now that Americans aren't pouring much money into the US economy due to unemployment.

link: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/opinions/economy-weakening-goldman-sachs-covid-filipovic/index.html

China Cracks Down, Claiming it is For the People, or So They Say

It is no secret that China has been a socialist country since the end of World War II. The government has been making all of the decisions and giving the people of China virtually no say. Just in the last week or so China has unveiled a "Rejuvenation" campaign. The main goal of this initiative is to revive revolutionary ideals. To achieve the goal of his campaign, President Xi seems to be creating a strict and tightly structured society based on his own ideals. 

One of the hot topics around the world is the new restriction that China has imposed on kids under the age of 18. Kids now only have three hours of online game time a week that is to only be used on Friday through Sunday. President Xi's goal of this restriction is to focus the efforts of the Chinese society, even the youth, onto advancing China as a whole. One of the main ways that they are enforcing this is through the gaming companies. These companies are eager to stay on the good side of the Chinese government and have already begun to enforce these new restrictions on gamers. 

As part of China's crackdown, they are now making restrictions for who can be on TV. The main group of focus is on "sissy men" as the Chinese government calls them. Sissy men are men who are deemed as "insufficiently masculine." The government has now banned all of these men from appearing on TV to promote a "revolutionary culture" that President Xi is looking to achieve.

China is looking to close the income gap in the country. The government is relying on companies to help with this. Some of the large companies such as Alibaba and Tencent have already pledged billions in creating new jobs at the governments request. These large companies, like I mentioned earlier, are looking to stay in the good graces of the Chinese government.  These companies rely heavily on the Chinese workforce and on the consumers in China. For economic reason, they need to stay in the good graces of the government. They do not want to have to leave the country with so many available workers which allows them to pay them a lower wage. In addition to that, with the Chinese government having the final say in all matters, it is imperative that they stay in their good graces which might allow them to have fewer restrictions put on them. It is vital for the companies success. 

Article Link: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-09-07/china-chases-rejuvenation-with-control-of-tycoons-society

India sees 20% GDP growth, way over previous predictions, but does it matter?

News outlets are increasingly posting articles about massive growths in GDP in many nations. One such article is about a 20% growth in India's GDP year over year in 2021, which is much higher than what economists predicted, even between February and April, when times were better before the second wave of the virus. However, many news outlets are claiming this to be a good indicator and international organizations are supporting this view.

When a previous fiscal year saw a recession, it does not make sense say the economy grew better than the previous year. Instead, a better indicator would be to compare growth using 2019 data, i.e., April-June 2021 vs. April-June 2019 GDP growth rate. This comparison would tell us that India's growth rate is 9.2% lower than what it was in 2019 during those months.

Although, from another point of view, the praise of India's growth rates makes sense. India has seen the highest growth rates in the world over the past year and a near-perfect V curve that suggests the economy has returned to the state it was in before the 2nd wave in a very short time. These perspectives justify the praise India's 20% growth rate.

Additionally, measures like record breaking vaccinations, leasing of national assets to raise an equivalent of $81.9 billion, and continuing major infrastructure projects that employ hundreds of millions of daily-wage laborers, and many others providing a ray of hope for an improving economy, rising up better after devastation.

With current figures of growth over past year, economists and international organizations, including the IMF, are predicting much better growth rates than what they previously predicted. It is remaining to see whether India will live up to those claims, especially when on one side, until a few weeks ago, it was predicted India will face the deadliest third wave of the delta plus variant of the virus, and on the other side, recently, it is predicted India is entering an endemic stage, like the flu in the US, where it just exists like a regular disease contained within India.

Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/business/economy/india-economy-covid.html

The Taliban Controls The Afghan Economy. Now what?

 The Taliban Controls The Afghan Economy. Now what?

With the recent take over of the Afghan government by the Taliban, the world is wondering how they will handle the $20 billion economy. Prices are already increasing for everyday citizens, and sanctions will only increase on the Taliban. About 3/4 of Afghanistan's budget comes from the United States and other foreign aide. Now that the Taliban has regained power, all the money from the United States and others, about 7-8 billon, is frozen. 

Afghanistan also relied on shipments of American dollars for liquidity in the economy. The previously set sanctions have also stopped those shipments which means that those who want to get money from the recently reopened banks might not be able to. The driver of the economy is the informal money exchange system, hawalas, and they are also running out of dollar bills. 

Last year it was reported that about 90% of Afghans live below the poverty line. The main question is how is the Taliban going to boost an economy that relies mostly on foreign aide? Afghans are already living in poverty and without the funds from foreign countries, the Taliban won't have enough resources to care for the people of Afghanistan. It is also important to note that if the Taliban wants to take women out of the workplace, it will only make Afghanistan's economy fall faster and harder. Time will only tell if the Taliban can take on the responsibility of a 20 billion dollar economy without budging on their principles.  

Should bitcoin be used as currency?

On Tuesday, September 7th, El Salvador announced that the country will be recognising Bitcoin as an official currency. El Salvador is known to have $26 million in bitcoin.

President Bukele came to this decision so that 70% of Salvadors who don't have access to 'traditional financial services can take advantage of bitcoin and use it to their convenience. Bukele also argues that this decision was important to make advancement in the world and keep up with times, as quoted, Bekele said,  " El Salvador has the right to advance toward the first world". This decision will also make it easier for El Salvador nationals who live abroad, to easily transfer money for their families. 

While Bukele was able to support his decision for these reasons there was some backlash. Civilians were not too excited about it. Jesuit college posted poll results showing that 67.9% of the population disagreed with the governments' decisions. Many people reported that they did not know enough about bitcoin and did not know how to use it. The US embassy in El Salvador disagreed with this government's decision and said it "undermines democracy."  

Bitcoin is valued higher with each passing day. Hence, using it as currency can cause spending surges which will result in a fluctuating and unpredictable economy. Keeping that in mind, is El Salvador keeping up with the times or causing an economic tragedy?  

Source

Job openings soar to 10.9 million as companies struggle to fill positions

 US companies are struggling to fill a record number of vacancies. Job Openings are at an all time high coming in at 10.943 million open jobs. Job openings outnumbered the unemployed by over 2 million in July. The rate of Job Openings measured against the total labor force is at 6.9% in July which is 2.3% higher from July 2020.

Certain job fields are getting hit harder than others. The hospitality field (food, beverages, travel and tourism, lodging, attractions, and recreation) which suffered the most during the pandemic had 1.82 million job openings which is an increase of 134,000 jobs from June. This is thought to maybe be a cause from the new Delta Variant which is causing a surge in the covid-19 cases. The financial job field is another job field getting hit harder than others. The finance field job openings measured against the amount of people in the labor forces raised to 5.8% from 3.8% which accounts for over 200,000 jobs. Additionally government jobs rose to about 4.6% from 4.2%accounting for about 100,000.

We also look at particular regions that are having a harder time finding workers than others. The south who have been hit harder with covid-19 than any other region is also having the hardest time with job vacancies. Their job openings measured against the amount of people in their labor force is at the highest at 7.1% which is a 226,000 job increase from June. The northeast rates are at 7% which is an increase from 6.2%.

Although we are finding job openings at an all time high the heiress rate this last month actually decreased. It decreased to 4.5% from 4.7%. Could this be an outcome of the new delta variant or caused by people not having the right skills to fit the job openings?

There are many reasons that there are many job openings across the US. Many people believe it has something to do with the unemployment benefits while others believe it has to do with the fear of covid-19 itself. Another cause of the job openings is the lack of skilled workers needed for the jobs. Hopefully in the coming months we will see a decrease in job openings and unemployment.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/08/job-openings-soar-to-10point9-million-as-companies-struggle-to-fill-positions.html

Walmart raising wages at least a $1 an hour for more than 565,000 store employees

 Since founded in 1962 Walmart has been one of the largest corporations in the world employing more than 2 million people today. On September 2 Walmart announced “Walmart is raising the pay for more than 565,000 store employees. This is helping support what many people have been asking for with raising the minimum wage. “The investment means that over the past year, we’ve raised pay for approximately 1.2 million hourly associates in our U.S. stores, increasing our U.S. average hourly wage to $16.40.” Walmart has seen few repercussions because of this decision because most people are in favor of increasing the minimum wage... Walmart has had cost inflation because of this, but during this pandemic time what company has not increased their prices? 

One more thing that Walmart announced is that like Starbucks “Walmart announced in July it will pay for college tuition and books for its part-time and full-time associates at a group of schools.” This is very important because the number one reason people do not go to college is due to how expensive college is. College is very beneficial, even if you think you are not learning a lot, getting a degree from a college is a good signal for companies to hire you. Statistically speaking a person with a bachelor's degree will make more money than a high school graduate and an associate's degree, and have a lower chance of being unemployed. People may not like being in college but from a wealth standpoint, it helps. With Walmart helping pay for college this opens the doorway for some people to change their lives and get a degree they might have not been able to get before which is far more valuable than a small raise. Other benefits of attending college include you are more likely to volunteer or donate to charity. Walmart is not just raising people’s current economic status by increasing minimum wage, but also putting them on a future path for upward mobility. 

Credit: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/shopping/2021/09/02/walmart-pay-raise-2021-store-employees/5700722001/

Jobs report disappoints — only 235,000 positions added vs. expectations of 720,000

 URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/03/jobs-report-august-2021.html

The Labor Department reports the number of new jobs and unemployment which was recently released on September 3rd. This article touches on the lack of jobs being produced that were categorized as "nonfarm payroll". It was expected to be approximately 720,000 new jobs, however it increased by only 235,000. The estimate of 720,000 new jobs was estimated by Dow Jones. The article goes on to talk about how the unemployment rate dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%, which was within their estimate. However, it is important to consider that the measurement of rate of unemployment is not always "telling the entire story", if you will. This could account for people dropping out of the work force as discouraged workers because they cannot find a job. This would decrease the rate of unemployment.

Further in the article, it breaks down the unemployment rate and jobs for different industries, indicating that leisure and hospitability jobs have stalled in August as the unemployment rate in the industry when to 9.1%. It analyzes and described the assumptions and hypothesizes as to why each labor market had a decrease/increase in jobs and a decrease/increase in unemployment rate. It also touches on some of the measurements regarding changes in wage and discouraged workers.

The article states that this new total of new jobs, or the lack thereof, comes as a concern because it could "cloud policy for the Federal Reserve" which is trying to determine whether to pull back on some of the stimulus it had been adding since early 2020. In my opinion, the Fed should begin to pull those stimulus dollars away. As we mentioned in class, there are many workers who are getting paid more on unemployment and the stimulus checks than they ever were while working in the workforce. This does not encourage people to look for jobs and join the labor force. Without the contributions of workers, GDP can slow down or continue to be low which will not allow for the economy to recover. What is your opinion about the stimulus?

**Please note that I am not trying to make this into a political debate. I am not VERY well versed in all topics that are of concern in politics today. I am sharing my opinion based on what I know and have read and researched**

Labor Shortage Leaves Union Workers Feeling More Emboldened

    Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, companies have commanded an upper hand in terms of decisions of pay raises and fringe benefits for their workers. But the table has turned.

    Despite an unexpected slow job growth (only 235,000 jobs were added) reported by the Labor Department, the U.S. economy is recovering. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% and wages across the nation rose at a 4.3% year-over-year clip. As the economy steadily grows out of the pandemic recession, there has been a spike in the shortage of workers in many industries, which results in gaining leverage for union workers in negotiations with companies.

    Many workers managed to negotiate a good pay rise. For instance, the workers at Volvo, a multinational manufacturing company, were able to have a 12% pay gain. Also, lower-paid workers who have been seen as supportive of a middle-class lifestyle such as waiters and bartenders in the leisure and the hospitality industry were able to benefit from the labor shortage, and now they are a step close to the middle-class lifestyle themselves.

    Moreover, there has been an increase in interest in union memberships recently. Although the scale of organized labor strikes and the size of unions are still not comparable to its influential past, it is still significant considering the fact that union membership has been decreasing for years.

    The growing demand in the labor market is not the only reason that the union workers are gaining bargaining power and financial security. The long-been-growing frustration among working-class Americans over wages has come to a breaking point, which served as a stimulator for changes. In addition, the Biden administration has also made its contribution by appointing a more worker-friendly National Labor Relations Board to settle disputes with employers.

Credit: 

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-09-06/labor-shortage-leaves-union-workers-feeling-more-emboldened

Wildfires are putting water supplies at risk, and corporate America is scared

 Climate change has been at the forefront of many peoples’ minds the past couple of years. In Western America, specifically California, because of climate change wildfires have taken a toll on the environment, damaging millions of acres of forests while also increasing a threat to the state's water supply. “The water supply for many communities, including large cities, starts in mountains and national forests. In California, about 70% of the water either starts or flows through national forests, according to Forest Service estimates.” With a serious threat to a state's water supply action needed to be taken that's why “Two years ago, the nonprofit Blue Forest Conservation organization launched the first-ever Forest Resilience Bond at $4 million”. While the return on the investment is seen as low, about 4% versus roughly 10% average return on stocks, I see this as a necessary investment because if we are not careful water in America could become scarce. 

Companies have just now become interested in investing, “In the technology sector, for instance, many data centers, which need water to cool the banks of computers running inside, are in water-stressed areas. For other product manufacturers, water is crucial to every aspect of the process.” Is it acceptable to solely invest to help save the forests just because the forest burning derails business operations? Should the government implement a higher tax in order to help restore these forests? America has one of the lowest tax rates of highly developed countries, one major department our taxes go to is towards Medicare and Medicaid. We put so much money into health programs and neglecting environmental programs, but as seen in this article if people neglect environmental problems too much we may lose access to clean drinking water. More money needs to be allocated to help areas that have been affected by wildfires and to help prevent future wildfires for the safety of the people. 

Credit: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/02/companies-investing-in-forest-protection-to-secure-water-supplies.html

The Danger of Ending the US Eviction Moratorium

Over the last year and a half, renters have been safeguarded from the threat of eviction due to late payments as a result of critical legislation passed during the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was enacted to shield individuals and families from some of the effects that the virus had on the US economy. During a time of great uncertainty with the lack of jobs to the risk of health problems, the eviction moratorium relieved some of the burden on citizens. Now, this rule failed to pass Congress and was recently struck down by the Supreme Court following an attempt by the CDC to maintain this safety net. While significant time has passed, renters are still struggling to keep up with their payments as it is “estimated that roughly 2.5 to 3.5 million American households are behind on rent, with landlords owed as much as $17 billion.” Additionally, there will be about “750,000 US households” that will face evictions by the end of this year. As evictions rise sharply over the next few months, the scale at which this will occur will negatively impact the US economy as people will return to worrying about their rent that they may owe from the time they didn’t pay over the course of the pandemic. This can lead to lower job growth, decrease in household consumption, and higher rates of homelessness. Not to mention the risk of spreading the unrelenting variant of COVID-19 that is now resurging in case numbers nationally. On the other hand, there is a need for landlords to be fairly compensated for what they provide as they also have bills to pay in addition to the costs to maintain their properties. Some landlords might be in a similar situation to their renters as they need to catch up on payments from a year ago. Ultimately, both sides of this housing crisis have or will suffer in the coming months. Without immediate action from Congress on meaningful legislation to relieve this tension, the economy will pay dearly for the explosion of this powder keg of debt.

Credit: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sharp-rapid-increase-in-evictions-as-moratorium-ends-landlords-owed-billions-133404937.html

An interesting EconTalk episode on property rights

EconTalk on Mine!!

Last week's EconTalk guests spoke about one of the main institutions of economic systems: property rights. Post your comments below.

Brexit and a smoke-free Britain

 As we know that recent COVID-19 has taken its toll on everyone around the globe but

considering nations like the UK or EU where a number of residents are indulged in unhealthy

activities like smoking cigarettes have eventually caused an increasingly high rate of untimely

death of its dwellers.

We all are well aware of the fact that Brexit had its pros and cons for both nations i.e UK and

EU but considering the life-threatening situation of COVID-19, the inhabitants of the UK who are

highly prone towards smoking weren’t able to fight their battle against this pandemic due to

weak lungs. So the British government has decided to take necessary measures in order to

downgrade cigarette import in the country which will eventually help in dropping the

consumption of smoke. As a result, the government has decided to increase tax rates on all

sorts of cigarettes.

I think this is an excellent initiative by the government to increase tax rates on tobacco

products in order to keep in out of buying capacity for the common man. High tax rates will

eventually decrease in imports of cigarettes which will make the price of common cigarettes

extensively high for the general public resulting in less sales of the product. This will help in

accomplishing the objective of the government which is to make the UK smoke free nation.

https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-an-opportunity-to-stop-britons-smoking-150204

Monoply of Facebook is challenged

Facebook has been sued by many states and the federal government for the alleged abuse of its dominance in the digital marketplace and for being engaged in anticompetitive behavior

The Federal Trade Commission seeks a permanent injunction in federal court that demands divestment of FB assets, including Instagram and WhatsApp.

According to the officials, Facebook's monopoly denies consumers the benefits of competition and the company must be checked for its anticompetitive conduct so that innovation and free competition can thrive.

Facebook bought 2 key services in the social media empire in 2012 Instagram for $1 billion, and in 2014 WhatsApp for $19 billion.

Facebook has its dominance and monopoly for more than 10 years and crushes smaller rivals and competitors.

The state suit calls for a court order binding Facebook to notify state officials before buying any existing brand valued at $10 million or more.

Facebook has prepared well to face the music and presented its narrative that Facebook accepts the regulation but this kind of restriction could risk giving other countries like China a competitive edge in the fast-moving technology sector.

Facebook is not the only company to be taken to court by the US and state government officials. Google and Microsoft had been going through the same kind of allegations in the past. Apple and Amazon have also been probed for potentially anticompetitive behavior.

However, the Government will have to prove in court that Facebook's alleged misconduct led to real-world, measurable harms to consumers or competition.

According to the state suit, Facebook's alleged misconduct harms the consumers.  Internet users have fewer choices. Moreover,  Facebook opens its platform to new app developers and later cut off their access to Facebook's services once Facebook feels them be a competitive threat.

Such cases take years to settle but can greatly impact the market.  Experts credit the Microsoft suite for Google's rise.

Similarly, a court decision to breaks up Facebook or to imposes certain behavioral limitations could have made a place for new products for the consumers.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/09/tech/facebook-antitrust-lawsuit-ftc-attorney-generals/index.html

President Donald Trump and US economy in 2020

In January 2017 President Donald Trump started with a healthy economy that continued to grow by leaps and bounds during his first three years in office. The unemployment rate was 4.7%, lowest in 10 years. With the all-time highest corporate profit rates and high stocks, gross domestic product was growing around 2.5% per annum.

 

Each presidency from Ronald Reagan to Trump commenced under different circumstances. George W. Bush’s first year was tarnished by the September 11th attacks while Barack Obama’s started with the Great Recession, a devastating housing crash and a global financial crisis. Despite all these hard times, these presidents have presided over a growing economy during their era. The Trump presidency, however, will be marked by a health crisis and an economic crisis resulted by Covid-19 pandemic. About 15% of Americans lost and Trump ran the elections under the worst job loss in American history.

On the contrary during Obama’s Presidency the job market was up 0.4% and the situation got even better later in his time and as result, Trump started with the strongest job market in American History. The Covid-19 changed the situation and joblessness went 10% higher from where Trump has started, a historical spike in history. 

 

A data released by the Census Bureau in September 2019 around 9% increase from 2016 in the income of an average American and almost 20 states raised their minimum income. The pandemic has definitely reduced those numbers in 2020. The Stimulus checks made a temporary increase in the income of unemployed people but the future of people who had to shut their businesses and who had lost their jobs is still at waters. Economists think that the businesses and workers will not fully recover from this setback for years.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/10/business/us-economy-trump-vs-other-presidents/

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens

 The United States trade deficit has widened 1.7% in October to $63.1 billion. The can be attributed to the trade gap with China and Mexico increasing. The deficit with China rose 9% to $26.5 billion while the gap with Mexico rose 10% to $11.8 billion. This year so far the overall gap in the trade of goods and services with the rest of the world has rose to $536.7 billion which is up 9.5% from Jan-Oct 2019. The thing to keep in mind is that President Trump has vowed to decrease the deficit and it will be interesting to see what kind of trade policy President-elect Joe Biden implements. COVID-19 has not helped shrink the deficit either as it has upended trade in services such as education and travel which the U.S. runs surpluses in. The exports for the U.S. are down nearly 20% this year while trade surpluses dropped $18.3 billion in October. This has been the lowest since August of 2012. Lastly the United States ran a deficit of $81.4 billion in the trade of autos and appliances. Overall, it will be interesting to see what happens once Biden takes office to see what kind of policies he will implement.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/us-trade-deficit-widens-by-1point7percent-to-63point1-billion-in-october.html

Brexit is an opportunity to stop Britons smoking

 

Even though COVID takes up the majority of the health news smoking remains the most prevailing part of preventable death in the UK. As the UK seesaws on the edge of Brexit they have the freedom to add higher tobacco restrictions. UK has had a high amount of people dying soon after getting COVID but that does not compare to the high amount of people drying from smoking. Many UK adults are smokers and that’s a major difference in life expectancy between wealthy and non-wealthy individuals. The UK laws have a lot of origins from the EU, especially for tobacco. The EU is very much responsible for tobacco-related good supply to the UK. Now, with the decision to leave the EU the tobacco regulations will definitely be affected. Yet, older laws made through the EU still remain just because they are a part of UK law now. Now that the UK is not bound to EU laws, they have a chance to make changes to the tobacco policy. Tobacco control can be made flexible and counter various tactics of the tobacco industry. Even if current regulations are removed public health will improve. A huge majority of tobacco goods still come from the EU. With a lack of trade deal between the EU and UK, the imports will become tariffed starting 2021 which will raise prices and raise tax for the UK. Research shows high prices are the way to lower tobacco use. The UK government is in a strong position after Brexit to turn tobacco-related regulations/laws in their favor. 

What do you guys think the UK should do?

Reference: https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-an-opportunity-to-stop-britons-smoking-150204

The U.S. Economy is going to GET WORSE before it gets BETTER

There is a promise of the vaccine that will be coming out and be effective, but before everything gets to normal, the economy is going to worsen before it gets better. The economy added about 245,00 just last month, with about 60% of those jobs tied to transportation companies. This pattern that we can see here during this pandemic has been compared to the recession in the 2000-2001 recession. 

A separate survey measured the household’s employment rate, which was negative for the first time since the pandemic had started in April. There is labor - market deterioration because we can see that the government’s survey on the households and saw that the number of jobs created each month. During the 2007-2009 recession, the household survey had begun to show a decline in employment 10months before the establishment survey. 

There have been many new cases that have been building up over this week. According to the New York Times tracker, the U.S. counted 216,548 new cases on Thursday and 2,885 set on Friday. 

Do you guys think that 2021 is going to go the same way it did this year?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-economy-is-going-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-11607113936

Online Shopping Faces Top Holiday Test

 Since the beginning of March, when covid-19 was declared a pandemic, it has caused widespread changes in all our lives. One major change is the way we buy things. In shops, buying had reduced to online shopping or e-commerce. This put a huge strain on companies like Amazon and FedEx to deliver consumer goods on time even though they were getting much larger traffic than they could come with. 

An estimated three billion packages will take this festive season through the nation’s shipping infrastructure — about 800 million more than delivered last year.

Whether packages get delivered or not could break smaller retailers who have seen much less revenue due to the lockdowns and traffic in their stores. 

Many brands are trying to deliver before Christmas day and have set deadline days for items to be purchased. For example, Beatrice Bakery has set a deadline of 9th December, and Disney Store has theirs on 10th December.

Shipping companies have expanded their delivery serviced and hired more people to deal with the greater number of deliveries they have to make. “Demand exceeds capacity, no matter what part of the country you are in,” said Satish Jindel, president of ShipMatrix. 

To make up for the increased numbers, these shipping companies are hiring more workers. FedEx is 70,000 seasonal employees, and UPS, 100,000. Amazon, 100 new fulfillment warehouses, sorting centers, and delivery facilities across North America. The company has hired 275,000 full-time and part-time workers since the start of the year and 100,000 seasonal workers. 

Hopefully, all this enough to get packages to arrive in time with minimal delays, and everyone has a great festive season.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/business/ecommerce-shipping-holiday-season.html

A $900 Billion Plan Would Help the Economy, but Not Fix It

There is talk about a $908 billion aid package possibly coming in the future. It is a bipartisan framework assembled by a group of senators. Economists have been calling for Congress to approve a stimulus for months. “The economic recovery, slowing for months, is in danger of going into reverse.” By no means is there any final plan for who it is distributed to, but “experts say the plan would provide relief to several battered corners of the economy. It includes nearly $300 billion for small-business aid, $180 billion for unemployed workers, and $160 billion for state, local and tribal governments.” Unfortunately, a plan this small won’t be able to help everyone who needs it, but it is a little boost. Biden said that even if Congress does reach a deal before the end of the year, he will be pushing more spending when he takes office. The package would extend the initial programs set to expire at the end of the year that expanded and extended the unemployment insurance program. Many restaurants and retailers made job cuts in November leading to the weakest monthly gain of recovery in unemployment data so far. At the moment, this plan would be more of a compromise and the goal is most likely to prevent millions of families from losing their income the week after Christmas based on the direction of the economy.

Tankersley, Jim, and Ben Casselman. A $900 Billion Plan Would Help the Economy, but Not Fix It. 4 Dec. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/business/economy/congress-stimulus-economy-impact.html

U.S. economy gains just 245,000 jobs in final report of 2020

  In November, the U.S. economy added 245,000 jobs (Bureau of Labor Statistics) while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. This figure fell short from many economists projections of 440,000 jobs.

    This has been most likely caused by the recent surge of Covid-19 cases across the country. State governors have seriously considered implementing a second shutdown, and many have already placed restrictions on bars and gyms. 

    "Today’s report is both a wakeup call and a warning," said Nick Bunker, Indeed economic research director. "Coronavirus cases are surging throughout the country and several federal relief programs are set to expire this month. Progress in the labor market has slowed at the worst possible time. We might be optimistic about the spring, but the winter could bring another round of economic pain."

    Shutdowns are known to slow down business which may reduce employers desire to hire new workers. Do you all believe we will inevitably experience another nationwide lockdown? And what are the long-term effects of shutdowns on bars, restaurants and the airline industry?

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/u-s-economy-gains-just-245-000-jobs-final-report-n1249983

Biden's Limited Options to Revive the Economy

    Heading into the start of his term, Biden will have to take on the tough job of stabilizing and revitilizing the economy. Something, that at the start of his Vice-Presidency, he also had to deal with in 2009. At that time, the economy was in significantly worse shape, though author Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal argues that the tools he had then far outweigh the tools he will inherit now. For one, when Biden and Obama came into office in 2009, the Democrats controlled both the House and the Senate. This allowed them to aggressively push through stimulus packages and legislation to help get the economy back on its feet. On top of this, interest rates were at a level where they could be lowered to encourage spending and expansion.

    As of now, with the Georgia Senate seats heading to a run-off in January, all the Republicans have to do is win one of these seats to hold control of the Senate. This would leave fiscal policy at the mercy of a deeply divided Congress. Republicans will likely fall back on their hatred of a deficit, stymying legislation packages that will send large stimulus to the American people. On top of this, with interests rates already near zero, much of the monetary available has been exhausted. 

    With the odds seeming very daunting for President-elect Biden, there are some positives in the situation. For one, his nomination for the Treasury Secretary is former head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen. If approved, she will be the first practicing economist to hold the position in over two decades. Her knowledge and background will spark a great relationship with current head of the Fed Jerome Powell. Despite his now limited tools, Powell should be very cooperative and helpful to the Biden administration in their efforts.

  How do you see Biden's recovery efforts going? Will a vaccine return things to normal, or will economic recovery have to steered by the new administration?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-have-a-better-economy-in-2021-than-in-2009-but-worse-options-11606926003?mod=hp_lead_pos10

If too few people agree to get immunized, the value of a vaccine will be limited

 https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/11/30/katy-milkman-on-how-to-nudge-people-to-accept-a-covid-19-vaccine

According to Katy Milkman, a catastrophe will unfold if too many people reject immunization. 

    With the end of covid-19 being in sight as effective vaccines move closer to approval, society is faced with yet another challenge: encouraging people to take the vaccine for this disease. It is estimated that around 60-80% of the people will need to have taken the vaccine for the U.S to reach herd immunity, however, this past September only 51% of Americans said they would take a covid-19 vaccine when one became available. Two distinct problems must be overcome. First, people who aren't ideologically opposed to vaccines must be strongly encouraged. Second, we need to ensure that people are willing to follow through. As for the anti-vaxxers, they make up a small proportion of the population and can reasonably be written off. 

    There have been many suggestions as to how these problems can be solved. Relying on information, transparency, and encouragement is only the start. Researchers show that people look to their peers for cues on how to behave, therefore the focus must be on emphasizing wide support for the vaccine to those who are on the fence about it rather than the naysayers through public messaging. Moreover, it is also important to make those who have been vaccinated visible to the public to spur others to follow suit. It has also been suggested that those hesitant about the vaccine could be incentivized through traditional mechanisms of mandates and rewards. Requiring students and health care workers would not only follow precedent (influenza), but would also protect them and build community-vaccination norms. 

    There are still many issues that must be resolved before the vaccine is released and a solution to this problem will not only require due diligence but also a little creativity. Nonetheless, the biochemist have completed their work, now it is time for the behavioural scientist to shine. What are your thoughts regarding the vaccine? If not enough people accept to be immunized, the vaccine will be pointless and we will still be stuck with covid. We have already tried lockdowns, and it has proven to be ineffective as people simply do not listen. But, should we as people have to put our long term health at risk by taking a rushed vaccine?

 

Bitcoin Reaches All-Time High

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-of-19-786-topping-record-from-december-2017-11606750573?mod=markets_lead_pos3

Bitcoin, a digital currency sold and bought online, just hit a record high of $19,786.24. This new record surpassed the previous one, set in December 2017, and marks a tripling in value in 2020 and an almost doubling in price since September. This rally comes alongside high performance in the stock market, as the Dow recently reached a record 30,000 points. Market jubilation comes as the result of the Federal Reserve’s inpouring of capital into markets, along with hopes for a Covid vaccine in the near future. Because of this anticipation, bond yields are low, as investors are willing to put their money in more risky assets: chief among which is Bitcoin, an asset known for its volatility. Additionally, services like Cash App and Robinhood (retail investment platforms) that sell stocks as well as bitcoin contribute to high asset prices. 

It will be interesting to see how the price of Bitcoin and the Dow change in the next month. Although BioTech companies have been scurrying to get the FDA to approve their vaccines, it is unlikely a vaccine will be widely available before the Spring. After some point, investors may be sick of waiting for the anticipated normalcy and these high stock prices may prove artificial. It is also likely that the advent of popular investment apps, such as Cash App and Robinhood, which make it easier for young people and first-time investors to invest, will contribute to cause high stock prices, as this larger base of investors pour into a wider range of stocks, even those that would not receive as much attention without the accessibility these apps provide.

JPMorgan becomes first major bank to say first-quarter GDP will decline because of Covid surge

     The JPMorgan economists become the first to disagree with Wall Street's forecast of 2021 Q1 showing positive economic growth and instead say that due to the recent surges in covid cases the first quarter of 2021 will be negative. They see the economic growth shrinking down by one percent in the first quarter and then rising to 4.5 in the second quarter and rising even more to 6.5 in the third quarter of 2021.This all being said JPMorgan economists still think that the year 2021 will be met with good expansion in the second and third quarters due to the hopeful development of a vaccine . Not only are they predicting that the positives of a vaccine will help the economy but more stimulus checks will help the economy to see increased growth in the second and third quarters as well.  In the end, the JPMorgan economists believe that this growth we were experiencing in the months after the shutdown was the economy opening up but now the majority of the economy is opened and running and now we are facing restrictions that will slowly close the newly opened economy, Sadly the side effects will be decreased growth from q4 of 2020 to q1of 2021. Hopefully, the positives of a vaccine and more financial help from the government will help the economy grow and move past the restrictions after they are implemented in 2021.

Do you think these factors will help the economy to see growth?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/jp-morgan-says-first-quarter-gdp-will-decline-because-of-rising-covid-cases-and-restrictions.html

US economy to shrink as surging coronavirus infections foreshadow 'grim winter'

JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects that the U.S. economy will shrink in the first quarter as states push back coronavirus reopening due to the new a wave of Coivd-19 infections, as the daily new number of cases amount to more than 141,600 on Sunday, and there have been 12.3 million cases reported in The U.S. and nearly 257,000 deaths. A JPMorgan a team led by chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said that “The holiday season, from Thanksgiving through New Year’s threatens a further increase in cases.”

Feroli mentioned “The new measures will cause the U.S. economy to shrink by 1% in the three months through March after growing 2.8% during the final quarter of 2020,” stating that a vaccine will “limit the damage.” However, the firm forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow at a seasonally modified annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 4.5%, 6.5%, and 3.8% in the final three quarters of next year.

Feroli further added that “One thing that is unlikely to change between 2020 and 2021 is that the virus will continue to dominate the economic outlook.”

What do you guys think?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-economy-shrink-coronavirus-infections-surge-jpmorgan

Expiring Stimulus Programs threaten US Economy

Several critical COVID-19 economic relief programs will expire at the end of the year, which could force millions off of unemployment insurance, push many small businesses to close permanently, and raise the specter of mass evictions. This could threaten the stability of the US economy as the country enters an uncertain 2021.

In March, during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act, quickly passed both houses of Congress with bipartisan support, providing a lifeline to recently laid-off employees and businesses that were forced to close due to COVID-related shutdowns.

However, this legislative comity quickly dissipated as the pandemic wore on. The $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, or HEROES Act, which followed the CARES Act, passed in the US House of Representatives in May but was stymied in the Senate. While Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi championed the bill, GOP Senate Majority Mitch McConnell deemed it too expensive.

Stimulus gridlock has largely ensued ever since, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin working with Pelosi and McConnell for months with little progress. Pelosi wants a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, while McConnell has sought a $500 billion plan, but the leaders have not hashed out a compromise. Nor have their staffs worked together to forge any consensus on a potential bill. On November 19, Mnuchin expressed his desire to have $580 billion in unspent stimulus funds redirected to small businesses and extend unemployment benefits. It is unclear if this will occur, however, as it requires Congressional approval.

Do you think President-Elect Biden will be able to get stimulus package approved through the Congress?

https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-programs-cares-act-economy-covid-19-pelosi-mcconnell-trump-2020-11

October Home Sales see a 26.6% Increase

 Within the month of October, sales of existing homes soared well past expectations. In fact, sales rose 4.3% from the month of September and 26.6% annually. Also, in an interesting note, the median price for homes sold in October was $313,000 which is up 15.5% annually. This is actually the highest median price on record and reflects "the far stronger sales on the higher end of the market". 

I believe that this can be accredited to the extremely low interest rates that this country is seeing. More people are taking out loans and buying houses. The housing market is seeing a low supply and very high demand. From this, it is expected that prices increase as there is a shortage of the product.

My question for this would be, the housing market continues to increase when it is expected to "correct" and go into a decline, do you see this slowing down anytime soon? If you think it will, what are the indicators for your claim? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/october-existing-home-sales-see-spectacular-26point6percent-annual-increase.html

Vietnam Economy is Asia's Shining Star During Covid

 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54997796

There have been many countries in the world that have gone through significant struggles over the past 8 months. Vietnam has actually come out of Covid doing quite well comparatively. They were able to get Covid under control pretty quickly and have been able to obtain a positive growth rate of over 2%, while many other countries will experience a negative growth rate this year. Another part of this growth has been in part due to a relationship with U.S., especially since the trade war has begun with China. Vietnam has become a spot for U.S. businesses to outsource to in search of cheap labor to make high end products. For example, Apple has started working on a production line that will produce Airpods in Vietnam. Vietnam has increased its exports to the U.S. by 23% in the first three quarters of this year. These are big steps forward for Vietnam in becoming one of the more developed countries in the world. 

Do you think that Vietnam has handled Covid so well because they didn't have the back stop of health infrastructure that say the United States has? With Vietnam's growth, what future problems is it possible that they have as they expand faster than the average developed nation?

U.S. companies with China operations look to the Asian giant for growth

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/china-important-for-us-businesses-hit-by-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

The Covid-19 pandemic is not expected to prevent China from being the only economic power to experience positive growth in 2020. At least that is what caused the sharp rise in GDP in the third quarter. But the reliability of these data is questioned, suggesting a willingness of the Chinese authorities to take liberties with the economic reality as Beijing prepares its new five-year plan. These good results support the official rhetoric of the regime, which has repeatedly praised the resilience of the Chinese economy despite a very violent initial shock (a drop in GDP of 6.9% in the first quarter). These figures also seem to validate the policy pursued by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who imposed draconian measures at the start of the year to contain the spread of the coronavirus in his territory. As related to US companies with Chinese operations, the article states “U.S. multinationals’ majority-owned affiliates in China brought in sales of $392.7 billion in 2018, up 4.8% from a year ago, according to the latest available data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.” How do you think that disparity in economic recovery is going to affect multinational companies with China operations?

Is vaccine an elixir for all of economic woes?

 The world is facing dire consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Lockdowns, social and travel restrictions, disruptions of production, cut off supply chains have created a new face of the world. Big economies are putting in a lot of cash to keep the economy afloat. The Winter surge of COVID-19 has raised new and complex questions.  is the vaccine a solution to all the problems?

Will it be an elixir to the economic woes? How quick? How far?

An effective vaccine, without any doubt, has kindled hope of getting back to normal. But the estimation and expectations of policymakers that the pandemic would be under control within a matter of months have already been failed. Clinical trials are taking place globally while Pfizer and BioNTech are on the way to get authorization by the end of this month.

While a successful vaccine will help the economy to recover in the upcoming months, but this recovery is dependent on many factors. First of all, the trail is demanding. It will take many to test and administer the vaccine to enough people before mass production. Lockdown measures have been reimposed across the West will further hinder difficulties to achieve the targets. Mass production of a vaccine that is needed globally is another challenge along with its availability. 

The price affordability also plays a key role in how easily accessible it will be and how quickly it is distributed. Wealthy and developed countries will undoubtedly be able to address the pandemic first as many countries have already placed orders for the vaccine in huge doses. This raises the question, “How long will it take for developing countries to get their hands on the vaccine?” At the end of the day, many experts think it will take up to two years to fully recover from the effects of the pandemic and for things to back to the normal speed of life. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-covid-19-vaccine-would-boost-the-global-economy-but-not-all-at-once-11605087345

Small toy stores are worried they won't stay in business after this year.

 

The Winter holiday season is typically regarded as the busiest time of the year for small toy stores. Small toy stores experience a record number of sales during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Since the demand for toys and gifts increase during the festive season, shop owners expect more than usual traffic in the stores. However, this is not the case this year because the pandemic has forced people to stay inside and avoid public places. Since the pandemic, we have seen how businesses are adopting e-commerce activities and implementing strict health & safety guidelines. Similarly, consumers are also adjusting to online shopping creating a new normal. 

The small toy store retailers are concerned about the implementation of new operational protocols. They can’t keep up with their forecasted sales since there is a limit on the number of people allowed in a small retail outlet. Similarly, with low sales, it's difficult for them to maintain the expensive PPE inventories. Furthermore, small retailers in the toy industry don’t have the necessary resources to shift their businesses online overnight. This is where big businesses like Amazon and Big Box have an advantage over small toy stores. They can benefit from a situation like these by capitalizing on the customers lost by small toy stores. Experts suggest that this holiday season can further widen the gap between large chains and small toy stores. Do you think that the small toy store industry will be able to survive? 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/14/business/toy-stores-small-business-amazon/index.html 

Here are the things that scare Jerome Powell the most about the economy right now

In the article they talk about the many concerns that the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has about the long term effects of the coronavirus. He says that he is worried about the long term affects on the children who are not getting the proper education due to the pandemic and the many business owners who have struggled as a result of the pandemic.

He also asserts that although we are recovering, our economy will not go back to what it was before the pandemic. Instead he believes that the new economy we are transitioning into will have an emphasis on technology. We have seen this through the adaptation of Zoom into the work environment. Powell believe that this new shift towards technology will make it even more difficult for some workers to get back on their feet.

I agree that this new focus and use of technology in the work environment will definitely affect lower skilled workers who are also often people who struggle financially. 

Fed leaders differ on how to boost virus-ravaged US economy

According to the article, the leaders of the US Federal Reserve banks differ in their views on what it will take to get the country’s economy back on track in a troubling surge in coronavirus infections. The St Louis Fed President James Bullard says that the economy can recover if households are just shoved in the right direction, where he means to push them to wear masks and take other steps that health officials have urged. For the New York Fed President John Williams, he believes a full economic recovery will have to wait for a vaccine, with the health crisis putting a question mark on the economy. Whereas, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has called for a four to six-week national lockdown to try to stop the pandemic.

Likewise, Pfizer Inc announced that there experimental COVID-19 vaccine is more than 90 percent effective, according to initial trials. However, the very large rise in COVID-19 cases recently clearly puts a question on the ability of the economy to getting back on track.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/13/us-federal-reserve-leaders-debate-economic-risk-as-covid-surges

COVID-19 Vaccine Eclipses US Elections as Economy Game-Changer

The COVID-19 Vaccine, announced by Pfizer, who developed the vaccine with Germany's BioNTech, has been proven to be 90% effective. The enthusiasm of having a vaccine brought hopes on Wall Street as a gamechanger. Even though there is a slow economic recovery on the main street, Wall Street has already started positioning portfolios for investors by looking at how the economy will be performing a few months from now. Many investors believe that with the announcement of the Pfizer vaccine, everything has become more normalized. People have started going out to restaurants, booking flights, hotels, and planning holidays. 

Joe Biden, the newly elected president, made sure to make it known that even though there is a vaccine, even if it does work well, it won't be made available until a couple of months, so we should stay safe. With the rise of Covid cases this week, everyone needs to take care of themselves and quarantine. Joe Biden has spoken about how there will be another wave of Coronavirus in a few months by looking at the number of cases. There have been records set this week of the number of people who have gotten Coronavirus. Because of the vaccine's announcement and the reckless booking of flights and holidays, advertisements are being sent out by different companies to stay home and enjoy. To watch movies at home instead of going to the theatre. 

With the vaccine being 90% effective, do you think that its effectiveness is good as a vaccine?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/15/covid-19-vaccine-eclipses-us-elections-as-economy-gamechanger

Walmart resumes counting customers in stores and grocers reinstate limits on toilet paper as coronavirus cases surge

 Since yesterday Walmart has restarted counting the number of people/customers in their stores to track occupancy limits as COVID’19 cases have now started surging once again. Back in April, rules were strict as Walmart did not allow 20% occupancy exceeded in their stores across the U.S. Soon after COVID’19 cases had dropped in numbers, they stopped counting the number of people entering. Now, they are going back to taking precautions because U.S coronavirus cases, as mentioned, are rising rapidly by the day. Some of the major grocery brands had started putting purchasing limits on toilet paper and sanitizer, which goes back to when COVID’19 had started peaking months ago. Back then, panic buying had started, so stores are now taking precautions beforehand. Major names like Kroger, Wegmans, and Giant Foods have put purchase limits on certain items, just like those mentioned above. Walmart is also set to divide its Black Friday in-store sales into three separate events to prevent the spread of COVID-19. 

Do you think people will again go into “panic-buying,” or was that just a one-time thing. Have the various brand names mentioned taken the right decision to put purchase limits on certain products? Lastly, what effects will this latest surge of COVID-19 cases have on the economy?

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/14/coronavirus-walmart-resumes-metering-customers-in-its-stores.html

Coronavirus in Spain

Spain is a very important country in the world, however it needs to undergo serious systematic market reforms. The coronavirus crisis has destroyed Spain’s economy leading to its worst recession since the civil war, and the low tourism and shutdowns make a recovery seem very far away. Spain had one of Europe’s largest outbreaks and strictest lockdowns so their economy came to a stop in March and stayed that way up until the end of June. It shrank 18.5 percent in the second quarter, a drop so harsh that it wiped out all of the recovery achieved since the 2008 global financial crisis. The government relied on tourists from northern Europe and further to contribute to a third quarter recovery, but quarantines and travel advisories have ruined this as Spain has new localised outbreaks of Covid-19. Their tourism numbers decreased even more when Britain required all travelers to Spain to quarantine when they arrived home and Germany put three Spanish regions, including Catalonia and Barcelona, on its list of high-risk areas. Spain normally received about 80 million tourists annually and has depended on tourism for about 12 percent of economic output. Spain needs to start reforming to make a recovery from its sufferings this year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-economy-gdp/spain-dives-into-deep-recession-tourism-woes-bode-ill-for-rebound-idUSKCN24W0WF

Covid cases rising across the U.S.

Over the past two weeks, the U.S. has experienced a third surge of positive COVID tests. Since September cases have risen from under 50k a day to a little over 150k currently. On Friday, California became the second state to hit one million Covid cases, after Texas. And while deaths have lowered, around 1,000 people succumb to complications associated with the virus each day.

In response, many governors are starting to implement more restrictions on bars, gyms, and restaurants. They have even considered the idea of going into a second lockdown. The Oregon governor started a two week mini-shutdown to help slow the spread, saying "I'm not asking you, I am telling you, to stop your social gatherings ... and your house parties and to limit your social interactions to six and under, not more than one household."

Do any of you believe a second lockdown is imminent? And, if so, what will the long-term implications on our economy look like?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54935700