JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects that the U.S. economy will shrink
in the first quarter as states push back coronavirus reopening due to the new a wave of Coivd-19 infections, as the daily new number of cases amount to more
than 141,600 on Sunday, and there have been 12.3 million cases reported in The U.S. and nearly 257,000 deaths. A JPMorgan a team led by chief U.S. economist
Michael Feroli said that “The holiday season, from Thanksgiving through New
Year’s threatens a further increase in cases.”
Feroli mentioned “The new measures will cause the U.S. economy to
shrink by 1% in the three months through March after growing 2.8% during the final quarter of 2020,” stating that a vaccine will “limit the damage.” However,
the firm forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow at a seasonally modified
annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 4.5%, 6.5%, and 3.8% in the final three
quarters of next year.
Feroli further added that
“One thing that is unlikely to change between 2020 and 2021 is that the virus
will continue to dominate the economic outlook.”
What do you guys think?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-economy-shrink-coronavirus-infections-surge-jpmorgan
5 comments:
Whether or not these predictions will hold true is uncertain. The vaccine and stricter COVID restrictions as the festive period approaches might help but there are still high cases on a daily and many people still ignoring restrictions. I believe that the economic outlook of this country is mainly dependent on how authorities decide to handle the pandemic forward. Economic recovery will truly come when this pandemic is handled properly.
It has been clear throughout the year that if people decide to go contrary to what the CDC advises, we would see more cases. A great number of people have continuously ignored all advice and information from the CDC. This has led to more cases and more deaths, which is also prolonging the period businesses are shut. The longer businesses are shut, the worse the economy gets.
With the festive period, if only people can try as much as possible to keep safe, we should expect the same situation next year. That is until the vaccine becomes available widely.
i am not at all surprised that the economy is set to shirk thanks to the increase in cases because after shutdown the economy pretty much fully reopened and obviously with more cases this means less production which leads to a slow down of the economy
At this point anything can happen. There really is no set timeline for anything. I think the vaccine distribution will be slow and we will continue to face issues from the virus economically because the vaccine won’t have an immediate effect when it is distributed. There is also uncertainty of how many people will actually get it.
There is too much uncertainty in the economy to actually have a full idea of what is going to happen. No one knows what will happen with the vaccine as the affects from it will take some time to set in. If the vaccine work there will for sure be an increase in the economy. If not there could be an even worse downside than what is being seen now.
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