ANALYSIS, COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS IN PROF. SKOSPLES' ECONOMIC SYSTEMS COURSE AT OHIO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
Sunday, March 25, 2012
The oil industry's plan to lower gas prices
Oil is hands down one of the resources that Americans rely almost every single day. Since it is relied upon so heavily there is constant debate on the prices of gas and the way in which we attain our gas. Currently the oil industry is trying to reach out to people and say that they would like to lower the prices of the gas that we use so often. They are proposing that we drill more, tax less and cut regulation as well. It is obvious that the oil industries point of view and the Republican party point of view go hand in hand. Obama has been criticized for imposing heavier regulations for pollution and the reduction of global warming. The oil industry proposes that their ideas will increase oil production greatly, which in turn would lower the prices of gas. Especially if the production came domestically. The issue is that while Obama has been in office oil production has increased roughly 15% and the prices certainly have not decreased. One of the oil industries main ideas are to have Obama announce that there will be a plan to help decrease the price of oil simply to get consumers to expect the decline in price, and the price will then decline. I feel that our continuing dependence on oil is a slippery slope and that although it may seem like the best thing to do right now, we need to continue to try and find cleaner, more efficient ways for energy.
The Castros, Cuba and America: On the Road Toward Capitalism
http://www.economist.com/node/21551047
It has been known a while ago that underlying the Cuba's communist shell is the changing and reforming of the whole system into some form of capitalism. Even though Raul Castro might say that he doesn't want to dismantle the current system in Cuba, I think that's just mere words. And you know what - China and Vietnam also have to go through the same ruse - "no we're not trying to dismantle the (communist) system." It's just the way it has to be done. Just like China or Vietnam, I think that the capitalistic form of Cuba (in the future when they totally transform out of socialism) will be not quite similar to the US's.
Of course, the transition's biggest obstacle would be mainly political and oppositions from those that benefit the most from the system (which usually is the minority). It will be interesting to see how Cuba get out of this.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Apple and the risks of trading 29,000 times per second
Opening a Business in Brazil Just Got Easier
However, a new law was passed in Brazil, where a single person can start a single-holder limited liability firm, with a capital requirement of $35,250. There will be some challenges along the way, such as the implementation of the law and the transition period it may take; as well as potential hostility against foreigners who will try to enter the market.
Overall, I am curious to find out the implications this law will have on Brazil's economy, with more firms entering the market and perhaps raising overall GDP for their country. Only time will tell.
http://www.economist.com/node/21543210
An Interesting Perspective on the Failure of Incentives
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
The gap widens, again
The data shows that income gaps reached extremes last experienced in the late 1920s. Currently, the top 10% of American earners brought in 46% of the nation’s salary income in 2007. "The top 0.1% alone earned over 12% of all salary income." Now in 2012, the condition could only be worse. These striking totals capped years of rising inequality. Between 1993 and 2010, over half of all real income gains in America flowed to the top 1%. Even worse, during the current recession since 2007, the income level of the bottom group has been decreasing, unemployment rate has been increasing, which cause the wealth gap augmented.
The tax action could be a way to solve this severe condition, but this piece of news thinks it is very unlikely, or highly depend on the presidential election result.
How farmer's helped transform China's economy
Caterpillar looks to fund growth in China
British Government to Issue Tax Breaks for 20 Million
This article describes the recent British attempt at tax reform. It describes two key changes being made to the British system: raising the tax-free allowance of income from £7,475 presently to £10,000 by 2015 and a reduction (from 50p to 45p) in the top tax rate. The latter will probably be controversial, as many people, both in Britain and America, believe the government coddles to the rich. The way to prevent this from happening, the British government says, is to reduce the loopholes that the rich use. This sounds like a good idea but will it have any real effect? And if so, could the United States try to reform its tax system along similar lines, specifically with making the rich more accountable?
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
The National and Regional Economic Outlook
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2012/dud120319.html
Monday, March 19, 2012
India’s ratings agencies are thriving—without a CDO in sight
Credit-rating agencies
Letters from India
India’s ratings agencies are thriving—without a CDO in sight
Mar 17th 2012 | MUMBAI | from the print edition
THERE’S a land far from Wall Street, where credit-rating agencies are not outcasts and can look in the mirror without feeling sick. This paradise is India, with six licensed ratings agencies, the biggest of which, CRISIL, has a market value that has just soared beyond $1.3 billion. (Moody’s, one of the three big Western agencies, is worth $8.9 billion.) These outfits use the same model—the issuer of debt pays for the rating—as their counterparts in rich countries, where the resulting conflict of interest helped devastate the economy. How exactly has India got things right?
Cynics might say the rot has just not had time to set in. Debt markets are still puny and the three big agencies, CRISIL, CARE and ICRA, were all set up between 1988 and 1993 and sponsored by worthy financial firms that were often state-controlled. But India’s financial supervisor, SEBI, has also been on the ball, passing rules on agencies in 1999, about a decade before the West got serious. If an agency wants to rate bank loans it also needs permission from India’s central bank, which takes a dim view of financial gymnastics.
The rupee debt market is ring-fenced from the outside world, which may have stopped sloppy habits immigrating. And those agencies with foreign shareholders seem to be fairly independent. Standard & Poor’s owns 52% of CRISIL, a position it took in 2005, and Moody’s owns 29% of ICRA. Both American outfits rate non-rupee debt issued by Indian firms separately.
Good regulation and distance from the rest of the industry have helped, but India’s agencies have also diversified cleverly. Rather than growing by rating structured products, most firms have stretched the business to small companies and beyond. ICRA rates local-currency debt in Indonesia (it leaves hard-currency stuff to Moody’s, its shareholder). Vivek Kulkarni of Brickwork, a newish agency, says it may offer quality ratings for hospitals.
Most firms are spreading beyond ratings altogether. CARE, which had been wary, wants to develop its consultancy business “as long as we can take care of conflicts of interest,” says D.R. Dogra, its chief. Naresh Takkar, the managing director of ICRA, reckons 35-40% of its sales come from services other than ratings. CRISIL, an impressive outfit, is furthest down this path with half its sales from abroad, mainly from helping banks with equity research and risk-management models, demand for which has soared thanks to more regulation in the rich world. Its boss, Roopa Kudva, says that in the mid-1990s it downgraded lots of its ratings and saw customers pull business from it as a result. The experience helped convince it that it needed to have other income streams to protect its independence.
What might threaten ratings’ integrity today? Some fear more new entrants that might offer softer ratings to win market share. Regulators will need to watch out for opportunists tempted to enter the industry given the frothy valuations agencies now enjoy. A deal between shareholders last year valued CARE at $300m-400m, and a listing seems likely.
The other worry is the economy, which is going through its worst patch for a decade. The local system of ratings notches isn’t directly comparable with international systems, but the ratio of upgrades to downgrades is now heading towards parity, from two or more a year ago. There must be doubt about the willingness of some local agencies to pull the rug from under one of India’s big banks or business houses if it got into trouble. Such firms can be as prickly as they are powerful. And as the bond and credit-default-swaps markets expand, the stakes will get higher. Agencies will be under pressure to react faster and issuers will be hit harder if they are downgraded. India’s agencies have passed the tests of the past decade. There will be more.
from the print edition | Finance and economics
Two Steps Back
While a satellite is not necessary a weapon or a missile, the UN says the technology of a satellite is so similar to a missile that the ban on nuclear weapons should include a ban on satellites. This article relates to our class because North Korea is one of the two countries who still uses a socialist system, and it is big news if they are willing even slightly to come make agreements with the U.S. or the United Nations.
JPMorgan Cracks the Mutual Fund Top 10
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-15/jpmorgan-cracks-the-mutual-fund-top-10
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Cambodia Embracing Capitalism With First IPO Since Khmer Rouge
Private Health Insurance is Inefficient
Zakaria's article discusses health insurance and how health insurance should not be privatized because the public sector provides it in a more inefficient way. The article didn't discuss topics which are normally brought up in this argument including that the private market creates more competition which improves the quality of our health care and personnel in the field. It mainly focused on administration costs for health care which I have never looked into. The numbers are staggering showing that most private administration costs are about 30% of the money they charge you, while the public market administration costs are about 6%. It is because of these numbers that Zakaria claims the public sector is more efficient when it comes to health care.
Are Jobs Obsolete?
The writer of this article suggests that employment does not need to be "productive" in the sense that it used to be. Instead, more people can concentrate on creative endeavors like writing books. However, it does little to address those who are not needed in the production of necessities, but who are also not well suited to these kinds of pursuits.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/09/07/rushkoff.jobs.obsolete/
Is the world economy recovering?
Unemployment rate drops in key swing states
No Relief in Sight at Pump
Saturday, March 17, 2012
China's Wage Hikes Ripple Across Asia
The Reason for Rising Oil Prices: Dan Yergin
The sanctions are set to take effect this summer and are expected to reduce the flow of Iranian oil into the world market. While they are anticipated, they are not fully priced into the oil market.
In other words, once the sanctions go into effect, he expects oil prices to rise further. While people may be looking at Iraq, Angola, and Libya to help replace the Iranian barrels in the market, don’t count out the United States.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46765040
Jobless numbers defy economic theory
Friday, March 16, 2012
The Resource Curse?
This article presented an interesting look on the general belief behind the resource debate. Natural resources are a major shaping factor and influence in the economy and organization of the economic system of a country. The supported theory has been that resources are a curse through the attraction of rent seekers, but also the "Dutch Disease" with a less competitive manufacturing center. However, this article points out that in Texas currently and some of the other oil rich areas we are not seeing a curse, but rather a boon. As one of the other bloggers posted, petroleum engineers are in high demand in the economy and although oil itself as a fuel source is not sustainable there has been a lot of growth and wealth in the industry. What do you think will happen as sources dwindle further? Might Texas experience some of the same effects of the "Dutch Disease" that has commonly afflicted more developed oil-rich areas?
Energy, Jobs, and High Salaries
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Body of evidence Is a concentration of wealth at the top to blame for financial crises?
IN THE search for the villain behind the global financial crisis, some have pointed to inequality as a culprit. In his 2010 book “Fault Lines”, Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago argued that inequality was a cause of the crisis, and that the American government served as a willing accomplice. From the early 1980s the wages of working Americans with little or no university education fell ever farther behind those with university qualifications, he pointed out. Under pressure to respond to the problem of stagnating incomes, successive presidents and Congresses opened a flood of mortgage credit.
In 1992 the government reduced capital requirements at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two huge sources of housing finance. In the 1990s the Federal Housing Administration expanded its loan guarantees to cover bigger mortgages with smaller down-payments. And in the 2000s Fannie and Freddie were encouraged to buy more subprime mortgage-backed securities. Inequality, Mr Rajan argued, prepared the ground for disaster.
Mr Rajan’s story was intended as a narrative of the subprime crisis in America, not as a general theory of financial dislocation. But others have noted that inequality also soared in the years before the Depression of the 1930s. In 2007 23.5% of all American income flowed to the top 1% of earners—their highest share since 1929. In a 2010 paper Michael Kumhof and Romain Rancière, two economists at the International Monetary Fund, built a model to show how inequality can systematically lead to crisis. An investor class may become better at capturing the returns to production, slowing wage growth and raising inequality. Workers then borrow to prop up their consumption. Leverage grows until crisis results. Their model absolves politicians of responsibility; inequality works its mischief without the help of government.
New research hints at other ways inequality could spur crisis. In a new paper* Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse, both of the University of Chicago, study patterns of spending across American states between 1980 and 2008. In particular, they focus on how changes in the behaviour of the richest 20% of households affect the spending choices of the bottom 80%. They find that a rise in the level of consumption of rich households leads to more spending by the non-rich. This “trickle-down consumption” appears to result from a desire to keep up with the Joneses. Non-rich households spend more on luxury goods and services supplied to their more affluent neighbours—domestic services, say, or health clubs. Had the incomes of America’s top 20% of earners grown at the same, more leisurely pace as the median income, they reckon that the bottom 80% might have saved more over the past three decades—$500 per household per year for the entire period between 1980 and 2008, or $800 per year just before the crisis. In states where the highest earners were wealthiest, non-rich households were more likely to report “financial duress”.
The paper also reveals how responsive government is to rising income inequality. The authors analyse votes on the credit-expansion measures cited in Mr Rajan’s book. When support for a bill varies, the authors find that legislators representing more unequal districts were significantly more likely to back a loosening of mortgage rules.
Inequality may drive instability in other ways. Although sovereign borrowing was not a direct contributor to the crisis of 2008, it has since become the principal danger to the financial system. In another recent paper Marina Azzimonti of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Eva de Francisco of Towson University and Vincenzo Quadrini of the University of Southern California argue that income inequality may have had a troubling effect in this area of finance, too.
The authors’ models suggest that a less equitable distribution of wealth can boost demand for government borrowing to provide for the lagging average worker. In the recent past this demand would have coincided with a period of financial globalisation that allowed many governments to rack up debt cheaply. Across a sample of 22 OECD countries from 1973 to 2005, they find support for the notion that inequality, financial globalisation and rising government debt do indeed march together. The idea that inequality might create pressure for more redistribution through public borrowing also occurred to Mr Rajan, who acknowledges that stronger safety nets are a more common response to inequality than credit subsidies. Liberalised global finance and rising inequality may thus have led to surging public debts.
Reasonable doubt
Other economists wonder whether income inequality is not wrongly accused. Michael Bordo of Rutgers University and Christopher Meissner of the University of California at Davis recently studied 14 advanced countries from 1920 to 2008 to test the inequality-causes-busts hypothesis. They turn up a strong relationship between credit booms and financial crises—a result confirmed by many other economic studies. There is no consistent link between income concentration and credit booms, however.
Inequality occasionally rises with credit creation, as in America in the late 1920s and during the years before the 2008 crisis. This need not mean that the one causes the other, they note. In other cases, such as in Australia and Sweden in the 1980s, credit booms seem to drive inequality rather than the other way around. Elsewhere, as in 1990s Japan, rapid growth in the share of income going to the highest earners coincided with a slump in credit. Rising real incomes and low interest rates reliably lead to credit booms, they reckon, but inequality does not. Mr Rajan’s story may work for America’s 2008 crisis. It is not an iron law.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
'Stupid' and Oil Prices Obama's Forrest Gump analysis of rising gas prices.
American exports ~ $2.1 trillion
This is a good article, check it out.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Innovation in China
Japan shutting down nuclear power industry
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46676913/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/