I think political unrest is possible in China, however much the military becomes involved. Over the short term we shouldn't see any serious attempts at regime change, but it is my opinion that a a slow movement for change will take place, and a change to a two-party political system could rattle their economy, allowing the US to regain or increase their GDP size lead.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
The Truth About China
This article describes a white paper released about China, which reveals political unrest kept quite by Beijing. It reveals how China has resorted to more informal detentions (which can only infer possible illegal action by the Chinese government), as well as an increased role of the military in staving off political unrest. This is troubling news for the international community because it signals a possible larger movement against the government in the long run. Political instability would hinder the efficiency of China's economy, greatly slowing their growth.
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4 comments:
It will be interesting to see how this unrest plays out in China, they have had amazingly high GDP, I am not sure how much this unrest will effect this and wether the U.S. will ultimately be able to compete with China's economy though.
This unrest will not bring a big of a problem to China or its investors. The Chinese has been doing really well to shut the mouth of any opposed party. Given the Tibet incidence in 2008, we can see how Chinese government managed to keep everything in order. And that was when the world all look at China. But now, no one would really cares what's going on in China. Thus, the government will only go all the way (in a brutal way I believe) to make sure they have EVERYTHING in CONTROL. In the end, all we wished for is stability in CHINA right?
The fast growth of China's economy through opening its market also came with political unrest. It is interesting to see whether China can continue to pursue such duality and how long the repressive methods will work. Other nations probably will not care as long as there's stability.
Unless any of these movements involved more than a hundred thousand people, I seriously doubt they could have any effect. Interestingly, one of the main reasons for Chinese government and other similar ones to stay away from a multiple parties government is the political instability that the system brings. With East Asian culture promoting harmony, disagreements between parties that can lead up to shutting down the government are just unacceptable.
Of course, change is always possible, but it is going to take quite some times. The US can only rely on their own to regain or increase their GDP size lead.
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