https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/more-coronavirus-job-losses-are-becoming-permanent
During the beginning of the pandemic, many employers that initially laid off employees expected to be back to full employment by the end of 2020. However, this is appearing to be more unrealistic by the day, and 67% of employers are not looking to rehire by the end of the year. While there has been positive decline in unemployment levels, there are still 11.5 millions Americans out of work compared to February. Also, that number of jobs added should be taken with a grain of salt. Many of those jobs added were seasonal, temp jobs which were created by hiring people to conduct the 2020 census survey. Once these jobs are no longer in the picture, I think there be regression in job growth once again.
The rest of 2020 is going to be an economic roller coaster, especially leading up to the election in November. If Trump lets the economy play out, I don't think it's going to be a pretty picture. As Goldman Sachs predicts that if there are no other relief packages passed by congress, only 16% of business owners are confident that they can maintain their current payroll, which is already way less than in February.
5 comments:
It is interesting to see the political nature of the unemployment figure. Of course it is commendable when jobs are added, but if the figure is composed of a majority of temporary jobs, this figure means little. It is interesting to see how this figure will change with the November election coming up. Likely, jobs will continue to be added, but perhaps not meaningful ones in order to make the president's job effort look more impactful. Hopefully, employers can find ways to hire those initially fired due to Covid-based layoffs. Unfortunately, it is unlikely they will be able to do so, since demand for products (especially restaurants) may not be at a normal level until far past the end of 2020.
I agree with Max on the way unemployment figures have been portrayed in order to boost campaign support. One thing I keep thinking about is how companies will continue after the pandemic has resided. It seems many will push for smaller office spaces, preferring many positions to work remotely instead of from an expensive office space. As office spaces shrink, many positions could be eliminated, though many online positions may open up. This could hurt jobs such as maintenance positions. I would expect many companies to pursue at home work when they can, though only time will tell.
I am totally on the same page with both of you here. Jobs being added is definitely a great boost for the economy but if these jobs are only seasonal/temporary then we have to question the accuracy of the numbers provided and of course, wonder how the figures will change as time goes on. Does this mean that the unemployment levels will eventually rise again? Or will remote jobs be able to provide some sort of "safety net"? I think these are all valid questions. Nevertheless, like Jack said, only time will give us the answers to the questions.
I definitely agree that the rest of this year is going to continue to be an economic roller coaster and we for sure won’t be back to full employment by the end of 2020. This is a crucial time for businesses, especially small businesses, to see if they can even stay open. Many businesses are not bringing in the revenue they need to keep the doors open, so hiring more workers isn’t even in the picture right now. It also doesn’t help that certain industries are becoming obsolete as well with the remote environment.
I think that the rise in the permanent job losses is a signal for everyone that the economic damage from the virus is likely to be long-lasting, as we enter into the second wave of the virus, which who knows how long would last. Similarly, the government saying often about the quick and a V-shaped recovery is at odds. I would say that with all the things going on, there is definitely more need for even more government spending and long-term solutions, as this virus will leave a long-lasting effect on the economy.
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