https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
US is Nowhere Close to Reopening the Economy, Experts Say
Economists say there won't be a fully functioning economy again until people are confident that they can go about business without a high risk of catching the virus. "Our ability to reopen the economy ultimately depends on our ability to better understand the spread and risk of the virus,” said Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan economist. The US needs more testing for the virus to give policymakers more evidence to determine when it is safe for people to return to work. It is important to not restart activity too quickly because the pandemic can have a second spike which could deal more damage than the first. While we wait for the infection rates to fall, policymakers will need to continue to support workers who have lost their jobs and small businesses that are on the brink of failure. That could mean trillions in small business loans, unemployment benefits, and direct payments to individuals. When do you think we'll be able to return to normal economic activity?
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I think we will resume normal economic activity once the virus has been under control and the impacts have been dealt with. With the business loans, stimulus, unemployment benefits, shortages of medical equipment and increasing death tolls, it is hard to say when the economy would resume, but by focusing on the given detrimental impacts of the virus and taking it one step at a time, I think the economy will naturally restore as people will regain confidence after.
I agree with your post and it is true that there won't be a fully functioning economy again until people are confident about going out and working again. To answer your questions about when we'll be able to return to normal economic activity, I think it will depend on how the government reacts and take caution. I think if the government orders a strong stay at home social distancing order, I think it would definitely help. Wuhan just reopens its long lockdown yesterday. I believe we will all prevail and goes back to our normal life again if we all work together and listen to what health experts are suggesting to tackle this virus.
I do not think we are anywhere near close to going back to normal after even the death rates slow down. I feel like once we flatten the curve and people start going outside, it could cause more issues with the virus. I feel like we will have to social distance for a little while in order to ensure safety in our everyday activities. I think people will also be hesitant to act "normal" because of the fear of catching the virus is still over our heads because there is no way to get rid of it completely.
If I were to guess when we will be reopening the economy, I would guess somewhere in mid June. But most people, even the best economist are doing simply that, guessing. And that's why I could see it being a little later than that even because most people will not go out until they see definitive data showing that it will be safe. And there is not enough data out there for anyone to determine that it is safe. So until enough data comes out, I could see it staying closed for a while longer.
I believe that we will start to return to our normal economic activity once the United States starts to flatten the curve. This return to normal economic activity should be a gradual process that allows the country to return to some normalcy but limits the risk of a second spike in cases, though. By allowing for a gradual return to normalcy, the American economy will be able to make modest economic gains and it will lessen the negative economic impact that is being felt by people around the country.
This goes a long way beyond what some people may think. Once the US and other countries are able to open up again, consumers are still going to lack confidence. This almost seems like a snowball effect as the longer things are dragged out, the more financially burdened people will be and the lower their confidences will be.
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