Sunday, February 2, 2020

UK Rates Held as Brexit Clarity Shores Up Economic Surveys

The Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates amid signs of potential improvement in the British Economy because of Brexit. Although the Bank indicated it might be in a position to reduce interest rates they choose to not do so. The bank said in a statement that its Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep the key U.K. interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. This was surprising because people expected interest rates to go down. Due to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's win during the general elections seems to have smoothed over uncertainties that prevailed prior. Johnson's majority in Parliament allowed for the success of the Brexit withdrawal bill, which has caused significant improvement in some survey data. According to the New York Times, the decision to maintain interest rates helped support the pound, which was trading 0.6% higher at $1.3093. However, it is still early to be able to determine the impact that Brexit will continue to have on the economy. In part it is due to the lack of clarity concerning the economic relationship between the EU and Britain.

I think that we can expect in the future are many negotiations during the 11 month transition period. Since Britain has a time frame to be able to deliver on a new trade agreement with the EU they will hopefully be more flexible. I believe that the results of these negotiations will influence further surveys and public opinion. Having to adapt to new immigration rules as well as big infrastructure change will only add to the pressure Britain will have to endure.
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/01/30/business/bc-eu-britain-economy.html

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