Sunday, February 2, 2020

U.S. Growth at Slowest Since 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/business/economy/gdp-numbers.html

While GDP continues to grow at a steady rate, that rate is frustratingly slow for many. Hovering around 2%, growth through 2019 was weaker than it was through 2017 and 2018. Even though GDP growth remains steady, it seems to be masking some weak spots in the economy. Both consumer spending and business investment slowed, while much of the growth was attributed to a temporary decline in imports. This could, in part, be due to an aging population. This is despite the White House's promises of a growth rate of 3-4%. Though there have been some instances of a growth rate of over 3% through the past couple of years due to various stimulus packages, those rates have quickly died off back down to ~2%. Of course, this raises the question of how voters will view this growth during the upcoming presidential election. Some will view the steady growth as a sign of a healthy economy, while others will say that it hasn't lived up to promise or expectation.

Many other factors could be at play, chiefly among them Boeing's struggles and the ongoing trade war with China. While President Trump's promises of a smaller trade deficit have come to fruition, many economist warn that it can fall for many reasons, not all of them being good ones. Due to a slowing American economy and shrinking demand of foreign goods due to tariffs, imports have fallen. This does not necessarily mean U.S. production has increased, only that imports have decreased relative to exports. Many businesses are hesitant to invest because they are unsure of what the future holds. This could exacerbate the sluggish economy down the road.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The title is a little misleading. While the growth rate this quarter was at an all time low in years past, the Fed has stated they want to keep a steady rate of 2%. The reason for this is because they want to prevent inflation from increasing past their target rate of 2%. I believe that this is a good thing since too much growth can be detrimental.