In the last few years, China's economic growth and growth expectations reached 6%. Due to the recent outbreak of the Coronavirus, China was afraid that the growth will fall and workers in China will suffer, along with even cities that do not have many cases of the outbreak. The article states that the cities that have been impacted the least by the virus should allow for migrant workers to come to those cities and resume operations. Despite the Coronavirus, economists in China predict that China will still be able to reach its long-term goals of doubling their GDP.
Economists predict that China will have a slow-down in growth by about 1%, some say it may hit 2%, but the outlook is positive in the long-run. With this being said, they are estimating this based on the hope that the Coronavirus will slow down and fade just like the SARS epidemic in 2003. Overall, it is difficult to say, for anyone, based on the current situation. It is impossible to predict a virus spread and if it will be contained or not.
Based on what the economists have stated, do you think the predictions are accurate in predicting the long-term effects? Why or why not?
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/china-meet-growth-targets-coronavirus-economist-200212080619230.html
6 comments:
I believe that the true effects of the Corona virus are drastically under reported. Both the news in China and the Western Mainstream Media are most likely not truly reporting all the deaths related to this virus, and therefore the impact is most likely to be underestimated as well. I think that the predictions are only somewhat accurate, and this virus will have a longer negative effect on China's growth rate than expected. I am expecting a hit of closer to 3% and then further hits in the future as the country recovers. China also has begun to slow down in growth in general before this disaster struck, which also should be noted.
I agree with Scott's comment. China was facing slower growth and immense pressure from their debt before the virus struck, and with Corona spreading, growth can only decrease further until there is a possible cure for the virus. The true impact of the virus can only be determined once it comes to a stand still. It's hard to predict how long it will go on for, and how drastic the impact really is, but the media is definitely underreporting it.
Like the comments stated above, I think China's economy is going to be worse than predicted in the upcoming years, and even in the extremely long run. They will struggle to reach their goal of reaching double growth. Their growth will probably decrease at least 3% because there will be high unemployment and fewer consumers.
This whole situation has been drastically under reported. Most media outlets in the US don't cover the fact that near 4 time the amount of people have lived through the virus then have died. Then there comes the problem that China may be withholding information from the rest of the world as well. Nonetheless, I believe China is going to suffer an extreme loss from this whole situation and I do not think that they will be able to recover quickly at all.
I agree that China is facing difficulties in their economic future because of this virus and the media is most likely not being extremely truthful when reporting this to the rest of the world. We really don't know from the outside looking in how big of an impact this is having on China. To say their growth is going to decrease between 1%-2% seems like an accurate assumption. I will be very interested to see the long term effects of the virus on the Chinese economy and how they will come back from this devastating outbreak.
Yes I do think that these predictions have a high potential to come true. It would only be natural for their growth to slow down at some point. But I do think that their growth will stay strong because their is still so much opportunity for growth in the lower-level of their economy.
Post a Comment