Wednesday, February 12, 2020
‘Like Europe in Medieval Times’: Virus Slows China’s Economy
The title of this article serves as a perfect analogy for what is going on in China due to the corona virus outbreak. People are staying inside and not going out into the cities that drive the Chinese economy. It has been over two weeks now since China has shut down cities due to the deadly virus that is ravishing through China. As health officials suggest that this will continue to get worse is scary to think about when you take into account how terrible is has been. As everyone is still staying out of work for extra time as they were ordered to by the government, the economy is losing time they won't be able to just get back. Time will tell what the outcome of all this will be. But how do you think China would best recover from this and what could they be doing now to cushion the blow if anything? Also, what numbers should we be paying the most attention to as this outbreak continues to spread?
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In terms of numbers I definitely think focusing on the death tolls and the number of growing cases is crucial in determining the direction of the virus in the future, and if the effects will get worse or come to a stop with time. With China's revival, I strongly believe that China's government will have to rely on foreign aid in order to potentially make up for the lost productivity in their economy, and find a way to bring in foreign investors to pump the economy. However, if by any chance China is the first country to come up with a preventative measure or cure for the virus, such as a vaccine, their economy would thrive and be able to revolutionize medicine at a time like this.
I think their economic revival is heavily dependent on finding a cure for the virus since it is literally prohibiting any economic activity from taking place in the country.
Something that concerns me even more than China's economy (which in itself is terrible) is the effect on the rest of the world. China is one of the largest exporters to the world's other large economies, including first-place United States. I agree with Sophia in that if China is first to develop a vaccine, then that in itself would make up for much of the lost growth since the beginning of the outbreak. Additionally, it would be a product that the other countries are going to need in hefty demand, making up for those countries' lost imports.
I think that death tolls and total diagnosis as well as number of survivors should all be considered when tracking the development of this virus. The Chinese economy was already in a state of instability before the outbreak of the virus, so it hard to tell if they will be able to recover at all. Only time will tell but for now we just need to track the spread and development of the virus.
In my opinion it is most important for China to currently be focused on the number of infected individuals and the death toll as the virus is not yet showing signs of slowing down. It is possible for China to turn to its allies for help in cushioning the impact that the virus is having, especially because the decrease in China's economy is negatively impacting their trade partners as well. However, the after effects of the virus will be immense for China's economy no matter the assistance they receive from other countries.
Tertiary industries, such as catering, tourism, and entertainment industries have suffered heavy setbacks, but they will recover very quickly after the coronavirus pandemics due to the huge population foundation in China.
However, the first industry should be most worried about, which is unlike the tertiary industry. Industrial enterprises are interconnected by complex and sophisticated chains. Every component is essential. For example, if you want to produce a car, even one part is missing, all suppliers have to wait. This pandemic is a war about time and life. The sooner production is resumed, the smaller the impact it will on the Chinese economy. China will have more confidence to face the virus if the first industry goes back to normal and workers start working. Without the refinement of copper, iron, aluminum, and silicon, there is no production of parts and medical equipment. Then, there is no continuous supply of medical supplies. How could people fight the virus?
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