Once a vaccine is discovered we won’t necessarily be able to get back to normal right away. Economists are connecting the speed of recovery to the varying levels of immunity. “Even if the vast majority of the population become immune to the coronavirus tomorrow, leading economists think it could take six months or more before our economy is back to where it was before the pandemic hit. And if a smaller share of the population became immune, economists think returning to economic normalcy would likely take more than a year.” Some economists are being more optimistic than others. The optimistic ones are looking for consumers to take part in more spending. Consumers will be looking to take postponed vacations and go to more restaurants which would lead to a quick recovery in hospitality and tourism. The large pent up demand will be the changing factor. On the other hand, some think that consumers aren’t necessarily going on a spending spree and business investment is generally muted following a recession. They believe it is going to take time for the unemployed to find jobs because businesses will be focusing on recovering and then will work on scaling their way back up to where they were before. Even though there are contradicting viewpoints with future outcomes, the news is becoming more optimistic with overall GDP growth which is good news.
Thomson-DeVeaux, Amelia, and Neil Paine. “Even With A Vaccine, The Economy Could Take Many Months To Return To Normal.” FiveThirtyEight, FiveThirtyEight, 25 Aug. 2020, fivethirtyeight.com/features/even-with-a-vaccine-the-economy-could-take-many-months-to-return-to-normal/.
3 comments:
I totally agree with the economists different view points. It depends on how many people get a vaccine and what percentage of people are immune to decide if our economy will go back to the pre-pandemic state.
What will the time period be for businesses recovering be? Will the hire within the six month window indicated for the recovery time? or will it be based on the specific industries that are affected by the pandemic.
I agree that the vaccine is not the cure all answer because it all depends on how effective it is and how many people can and will get it, the economy will probably be struggling with this for a few years.
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