Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/weekly-jobless-claims.html
Despite predicted economic slowdowns for the US, as well as the rest of the world, the number of US citizens filing for unemployment benefits has dropped to an almost 50 year low. This seems to demonstrate a strong, sustained labor market. According to the Labor Department, state unemployment benefits "declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 30, the lowest level since early December 1969".
Possibly due to this drop in unemployment benefits, companies are experiencing a labor shortage which has attributed to a slow down in job growth. However, the pace that jobs are growing is sufficient to accommodate the increase in the working age population which has been able to keep the unemployment rate down.
It will be intriguing to see how unemployment benefits and job growth will be affected as the world continues toward an economic slowdown. And if, however, we have already reached, or even passed, the peak of our growth, how will we continue to grow without first going backward?
3 comments:
Duncan, great article. These metrics are always extremely interesting to look at as they are published. It is also funny because as we continue to say "we're on the cusp of a slowdown" or "we're reaching peak growth" that some of our economic indicators still seem very strong. Now, it's also very understood that if we are at our peak that the indicators are currently reflecting that. I am interested to see which indicators begins to slip in the coming months. Between unemployment indicators, consumer confidence, and industry growth, we will see which one begins to be the indicator.
This is one of many economic indicators throughout this blogging period that has cause for concern. Antonio posted that the consumer confidence has decreases in the past month as well. I do not believe that this is a huge concern for our economy as it is just a weekly measure. I do believe that these economic indicators that are slipping seem to be an indicator of what may come in the next few months. It will be interesting to see after the next quarters numbers officially come out.
It would seem to that while there are many economic indicators that have predicted "11 of the last 3 recessions" that jobless claims may not be one of them. With regards to some of the points made in the comments it would seem to me that consumer confidence would only indicate a recession if there was a major shock, like a natural disaster or terrorist attack like 9/11.
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