I'm starting to get sick of hearing about the what-ifs of tariffs, and more analysis of the effects of Brexit have come out... so. This article talks about the effect of Brexit on Ireland, since half of the Irish land mass is technically a part of the United Kingdom, and the soft, open border that was negotiated in 1998 has the potential to be closed when Brexit comes into full force. Since some people cross the border daily for work, a hard border could mean many of them could lose their jobs, and the cost of the time wasted and trade fees at a border control could mean industry loses profits. This article specifically mentions health services, agri-food and manufacturing in the north as the industries that would be hit the hardest. If there is no trade agreement made before Brexit occurs, this article estimates the Northern Ireland economy would take a 12% hit, and even if there is a deal, they agree that the economy would take an 8% hit. The UK just released these potential numbers and Irish Parliament members are trying to find a way to both abide by the Brexit vote while maintaining their economic growth. The question of what to do with the divided Ireland is upcoming in the Brexit negotiations that are required to come to an end by March 29 2019.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-43673264
2 comments:
I feel like as like as the British government is willing to cooperate with the Irish government, this transition won't be as dramatic as it's made out to be. The border between Northern Ireland and Ireland will be the only border between the UK and any other nation once Brexit takes effect. It's in everyone's best interest, particularly Ireland's, to keep this a soft border. Although, we'll have to see out the UK deals with it in the future.
I would agree with Megan.I think the prospect of keeping a soft border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would be beneficial in terms of trade and employment for the region. However, considering the current state of politics in the region, this can surely get complicated in the long run.
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