The president, Muhammadu Buhari has been out of the country since January 19th being treated for a mysterious illness. Meanwhile, the country is experiencing extreme civil and economic unrest. The economy shrank by 1.5% in 2016, and inflation more than doubled to 18.7% in 12 months. Much of this can be attributed to conflict within the country; Boko Haram is far from defeated, despite official claims by the government, farmers are still unable to return safely to their fields; 450,000 children are malnourished. Additionally, clashes between Muslim Fulani herdsmen and largely Christian farmers in southern Kaduna, have killed at least 200 people since December. Furthermore, oil production has not fully recovered after money-hungry militants attacked pipelines and rigs in the Niger Delta last year.
According to the article, corruption is also a large issue, a lot of “bigwigs” have been arrested, but have not been convicted. The current president was inaugurated after the collapse of global oil; he reverted to policies that propped up the currency, resulting in a shortage of foreign exchange. Many foreigners investors have pulled out of the country, deeming it “uninvestable.” The national security (naira) had gained a little bit of traction by February 20th, but Mr. Buhari is wary to accept IMF help, as he blames an IMF-advised devaluation for the coup that ejected him from power in 1985. As far as the future is concerned, the IMF predicts that economy will expand by 0.8% this year. However, Nigeria continues to take out expensive domestic and foreign loans; debt is only 15% of GDP but, servicing it is eating up ⅓ of government revenues. Many Nigerians agree; Mr. Muhammadu Buhari has to come back and implement new policies to rescue their economy. However, it will be nearly impossible to revitalize the economy without some serious national security changes, and elimination of such rampant corruption. What is the best course of action for Nigeria?
"Who's Running Nigeria?" The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 04 Mar. 2017. Web. 08 Mar. 2017.
<http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21717787-president-has-been-ill-six-weeks-country-still-needs>.
5 comments:
Nigeria is in a very tough spot. The complexity of the problem means there will be no easy and simple solution to solving all of Nigeria's problems. It is concerning that President Buhari is unwell because the country needs a strong dynamic leader to pull them through their tensions with the Boko Haram and economic troubles. The country seems to be very lost and at a loss as to what to do, and I hope Nigeria will find a way through this whether that be with the help of the IMF or strong leadership domestically.
I saw an article the other day describing the feeling felt in Nigeria at taxpayer-funded treatment for top officials overseas while people at home cope with poorly funded health care. Others in Nigeria suggested that Osinbajo, a 59-year-old lawyer and pastor who handled matters in Buhari’s absence, should stay on and lead the country, one of Africa’s largest economies and top oil producers. It'll be interesting to see when the president returns what type of reception he'll get from the citizens of Nigeria and whether that'll create more uncertainty in the country if they feel he's unfit to continue to lead.
This is very sad. The return of Mr. Muhammadu Buhari seems like a necessity to help restore some of the societal confidence and trust. However, it seems that problems are far too systemic for there to be one person that saves the day. The situation does feel hopeless in many ways, hopefully a unified effort can turn the tides to a healthier society and political system.
The article was in many ways a rehash of things already said and known about Nigeria - a failed government/failed military regime, Boko Haram, crumbling economy and malnourishment among children. However, I was hoping to see it expand beyond that and suggest solutions. The correlation between the president being out of the country for so long and failing governance was obvious, yet interesting. But like Sam said, it doesn't seem to be a one person situation.
The predicted growth rate is 0.8% but that doesn't speak much as to how the economy will reach that level.
Corruption is absolutely never acceptable in a government. But, at least if you take from the people give it back into your own country's economy. When government officials are leaving the country for healthcare, business and investments it creates even more stress between the "haves" and the "have nots". When there are Nigerians who have to use the medical care provided in country and don't have the luxury to leave, as the officials are, then it creates even more contempt.
The expected growth rate is very low, and it might get better if the currency can maintain thus enticing foreign investors, or their own corrupt officials to invest. Not surprisingly, some countries have been able to get foreign direct investment because of the corruption and the maneuverability for some foreign investors- hopefully it will help Nigeria.
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