Monday, March 20, 2017

Economists argue about the impact of Chinese imports on America

The article looks at the different arguments regarding the effects of the trade relationship with China. At first, it takes a look at the works of David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson who have found in their research that in the 17-year-period between 1997 and 2007, "a quarter of the loss in manufacturing jobs can be attributed to a surge in Chinese imports." 

Then the article looks into the counter argument put forth by Jonathon Rothwell where he contests the method of measurement and notes that splitting the time period shows that there is a significantly smaller effect on the labor force (which is flawed in itself since it is a smaller sample size). Rothwell also speaks about how there are so many factors like monetary policies and individual incomes that might have been different without this surge of imports and that there are too many other variables at play here to entirely blame Chinese imports for all these issues.

He also criticizes the aforementioned research for not taking into account the benefits that had come with this "China shock" noting the lower prices and the rise in American and Chinese consumer incomes. 


Although Rothwell's argument falls a little short when it comes to the numbers with the smaller sample size, there is something to be said about his concern about the variables and benefits not considered by the authors of the works being criticized. Sure, losing manufacturing jobs makes an economic dent but if on the other hand, US-based multinational corporations are building their profits off of this cheap labor then there are more than enough returns coming back to the US economy. Also given that American consumers are being able to buy cheap goods and services due to the cheap production means in China is certainly a benefit of this trade relationship that should not be completely ignored. The article notes how the excess of workers from the lost manufacturing jobs was not soaked up by other sectors but is should China really be blamed for that? If the US were to have better retraining programs or more government initiated employment facilities perhaps this number could have been reduced further. 

Rather than alienating people against globalization (with all of its comparative advantages and push for efficiency) the United States really needs to focus on either becoming more efficient (and providing goods at the same rate as China) or being better at helping the people who lose out in the bigger gains.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

The retraining programs for those that lose a job sounds like a great idea. Also, even government assistance until they are able to support themselves again with a new job. This will cost taxpayers money but it will be far less costly than trying to cling onto an industry thats no longer most efficient and is hurting both producer and consumer surplus. This policy is often not popular politically, but if politicians can frame things clearly to the public, people may understand why this would be a good practice.