Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Sliding towards Scoxit
Though the implications of Brexit are numerous, one particularly interesting consequence is that Scottish independence from Great Britain is, now more than ever, a possibility. This stems from the fact that the traditional case for staying -the economic benefits - has been weakened as financial forecasts point toward a slowing British economy. Moreover, aside from economic concerns, the lack of Scottish representation in either the Tory or Labour political parties shows that the "precious, precious bond" between the two countries is, for all intents and purposes, a largely one-sided relationship. On top of this, Brexit itself has established a precedent that would appear to make it more difficult for British politicians, given their own experience, to advise against succession or head the warnings of objective institutions like the Bank of England.
With all of this in mind, however, it is imperative to note that while the political climate may be ripe for Scottish independence the current economic state of Scotland indicates otherwise. Specifically, since a referendum to leave Britain several years ago, Scotland's economy has experienced stagnant growth as its dependence on fossil fuels and finance has failed to deliver much of anything(the price for a barrel of oil has stayed cheap hovering around $59 a barrel and Scotland has lost roughly a 1/10th of its financial jobs). Accordingly, losing the valuable free-exchange that Scotland has had with Great Britain at this particular moment in its history could prove too high a hurdle to overcome though remaining in the "Brexit-bound union" also poses its own challenges to future growth and prosperity. Although Scotland could certainly choose the "middle path" of independence from Britain while also rejoining EU's single market this would be essentially pointless given that "Scotland exports four times as much to the rest of Britain as it does to the EU." Considering all of this, where do you see Scotland headed in the coming months and years ahead?
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21717038-decision-leave-eu-appears-strengthen-case-scottish-independence-fact
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Scotland declared that they want Scottish independence from Great Britain if Great Britain leave the EU. After reading this article, I don't think right now it is possible time for Scotland to leave Great Britain. As the article said, both the economic factors and political factors show that it is very difficult to implement such decision. However, we still need to think about the consequences of Scottish independence. Like Brexit, we cannot simply say that it will hurt the economy. But we can definitely see there will be changes and opportunities.
It'll be interesting to see what Scotland do in the coming months if they see their currency for example lose value and they are not able to export as much as before separating might be the right move in order to stay within the trade circle of the EU. Scotland needs to make sure Brexit does not slow down their economic growth and lose all the benefits from the EU, it might be in their best interests for another reason to separate and continue receiving the benefits from the EU.
Post a Comment