According to the Chinese National Bureau of Labor Statistics, China's working-age population shrank in 2012. This is the first year this has occurred and some analysts believe this is a major worry for a nation that has relied very strongly on its immense manufacturing capabilities to spur its growth over the last decade. According to the Bureau, China's working-age population was 937.27 million people in 2012 a drop of 3.45 million from 2011. This drop comes on the back of positive fourth quarter growth in China, as the country ended seven consecutive quarters of slowing growth by beating expectations and growing at 7.9% for the year. The decline in growth is especially worrying as consensus estimates believed the decrease in the population of working aged people would not start until the middle of the decade and suggests the continued decline of this demographic will increase at a faster rate in the future. It will be interesting to see the effect this will have on manufacturing in China and if the country can sustain their high level of growth in the future.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100392731
1 comment:
I think the impact of decreasing working-age population on Chinese economy wouldn't be too severe. Suppose those working-age population all get a job, obviously fewer workers will result in a decrease in productivity. Foreign companies will invest less in China due to a decrease in cheap labor force. However, not all people in working-age can get a job, so the unemployment rate will probably go down. Moreover, firms have to find "new ideas" to increase the efficiency to adapt to the situation, so it could be a good thing for China.
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