Sunday, February 26, 2012

Restructuring Greece Within the Euro is Illusory

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,816410,00.html

This is an interview with Hans-Werner Sinn, a German economist who is the head of an economic think tank. It is about why he believes that, in order to resolve the issues that Greece is facing, the country must stop using the euro. He argues that, unless Greece drops the euro, its external debt will continue to increase, and it will never be able to pay it off.

If, as he suggests, Greece were to drop the euro in favor of its own currency, it would allow the country to become competitive again. Currently, goods made in Greece are far too expensive even for Greeks to purchase them. However, a change in currency, Sinn posits, would dramatically reduce the price of these goods, encouraging citizens to buy domestic goods instead of importing them. It would also make the tourism industry cheaper, attracting more tourists.

This is not to say that leaving the euro will immediately solve the problem. Sinn estimates that the country will descend into turmoil for up to 2 years. However, this would offer a permanent fix, rather than just buying time like the recent loans have. Greece, he says, will still need the planned bailout of €130 billion in order to make this transition too. It is impossible to know whether this plan would actually work without implementing it, and there is heavy opposition by those who have investments which rely on Greece's continued use of the euro. For this reason, it is uncertain that this is ever likely to happen


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