Tuesday, October 21, 2008

3 Oil Countries Face A Reckoning: Fall in Prices Threatens Big Political Visions

I want to bring here another piece of information from the oil industry. As oil prices drop, 3 oil countries: Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are facing a lot of difficulties pursuing their political ambitions. For all three nations, oil money was a means to an "ideological end":
- Venezuela: Its President Hugo Chávez's goal is to build a socialist-inspired state, and suppress opposition. Venezuela used petrodollars to buy Russian weaponry, to win friends in the hemisphere and elsewhere (nations that are also anti-America in a sense), and to create a wide array of social welfare programs. Problems right now with Venezuela: high inflation rate (36%), while heavy government deficit once oil prices fail. "We're in the same situation of people who have lost a limb but can still feel it," said Ricardo Hausmann, a Venezuelan economist who teaches at Harvard University.
- Iran: Another nation that is very dependent on oil money. It has used them in the past four years as a political and economic weapon to defy and undermine the West while promoting its own agenda (spread its influence in Iraq and then the Middle East, promote itself as the leader of the Islamic world and continue its nuclear program) Almost same problem with Venezuela, the inflation rate in Iran is very high (30%). "It's not expected that economics will force Iran to change its underlying ideology-long-term goals. Still, if prices stay depressed for long, it could mean a greater willingness in Tehran to find a compromise on the nuclear issue, and, perhaps, a political shift that left Mr. Ahmadinejad vulnerable in June's presidential election.
- Russia: Russia was willing to use its vast energy reserves to try to reassert the dominance it lost with the Soviet Union's collapse. As we might remember, two months ago when Russia invaded Georgia, almost no nations really do anything. Europe had become dependent on Russia's gas and couldn't afford to mount a strong challenge. Now that Europeans may no longer be as intimidated because of the drop in oil prices, Russia's goal is being threatened.
Almost every country is in the trial process to see what economic system would work. With the oil prices effects, the systems in Venezuela, Iran and Russia will need to try hard to prove whether it is viable.

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