Treasury Department Faces Major Layoffs

Recently the Treasury Department has announced that they are going to layoff a substantial amount of their workforce. According to the court document, this is a part of the Department of Government Efficiency’s ongoing moves to cut federal employee rolls. Currently, the treasury has more than 100,000 employees. Trevor Norris, the department’s deputy assistant secretary in Human Resources, said that DOGE’s plans will be tailored to every bureau, and will require substantial reductions in force. Three judges have already issued restraining orders to put temporary halts on DOGE’s efforts, and the case gets more complex with the state of Maryland’s refusal to comply with the layoffs. A statement made by a treasury spokesperson made it seem like any decisions about the situation are not final which may mean that they are still considering different measures to reach efficiency. I think it will be interesting to see how these major layoffs will affect our economic future, and if the results they are looking for will actually end up happening. 

Reference:

Treasury Department is set to lay off a ‘substantial’ number of employees, officials says

U.S. Faces ‘Significant Risks’ From Debt

The Congressional Budget Office says that U.S. debt could reach 118% of the economy by 2035 because of rising borrowing and an aging population. Trump’s plan to extend the 2017 tax cuts could make the debt worse, adding trillions to the deficit. While his budget includes cuts to government programs, experts say these won’t fix the long-term debt problem. The U.S. debt, which is currently at $36 trillion, is a result of years of spending and revenue issues and there are growing worries about economic instability and higher borrowing costs. Though Social Security and Medicare are facing funding problems Washington is more focused on tax cuts and spending cuts than fixing these programs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/business/trump-debt-tax-us.html 

Core Inflation at 2.8% for February

 Inflation is up more than expected over February, as the FEDs PCE numbers just came out this morning. The CPE index was up 0.4%, the largest month over month rise since January 2024. Analysts were looking more in the range of 0.3% and 2.7% respectively. Housing prices were a little slower in the period, rising 0.3%. 

The Fed seems like it will be patient with the recent inflationary numbers, as they are not super high over what was expected. They are still expected to wait until September to cut the interest rate, and it is not expected that the numbers will affect that decision. With tariffs beginning to come into effect, some believe that the increased prices from imports are contributing to a slight bump in inflation. Analysts are not expecting this inflation to be long lasting either.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce-inflation-february-2025-.html

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Consumer Spending

Rising interest rates significantly affect consumer spending by increasing borrowing costs and reducing disposable income. Higher rates on loans, mortgages, and credit cards make large purchases less affordable, causing consumers to prioritize saving over spending. This shift is evident in sectors such as housing and durable goods, where higher financing costs deter potential buyers. Additionally, consumer confidence has dropped to a four-year low amid economic uncertainties and rising borrowing costs (The Independent).

While increased interest rates encourage saving by offering better returns on savings accounts and fixed-income investments, they also slow economic growth by reducing short-term spending. The housing market and automobile industry are particularly vulnerable to these changes, as reduced consumer demand affects production and sales. Meanwhile, central banks must carefully balance inflation control with the risk of economic downturns caused by decreased consumer activity.

In conclusion, rising interest rates play a crucial role in shaping consumer behavior and economic health. By influencing borrowing costs, saving habits, and market confidence, these rate adjustments have far-reaching implications. Understanding these dynamics helps policymakers, businesses, and consumers navigate economic cycles more effectively. For more insights on interest rate trends, visit FederalReserve.gov for the latest updates.

Trump announces new auto tariffs in a major trade war escalation

    President Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts, effective April 3, as part of his effort to boost U.S. auto manufacturing. The move marks a major escalation in global trade tensions, potentially raising car prices significantly. Parts from Canada and Mexico that comply with the USMCA will initially be exempt, but this could change.

    Major automakers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis are expected to be affected, with their stock prices dropping after the announcement. Industry experts predict production costs could rise by $3,500 to $12,000 per vehicle, and a reduction in vehicle variety may follow. While the United Auto Workers union supports the tariffs, international leaders like Canada’s and the EU’s have signaled possible retaliation. Analysts warn the tariffs may hurt not only foreign carmakers but also U.S. suppliers and consumers, leading to higher prices and reduced availability of lower-cost cars.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/26/economy/auto-tariffs-announcement/index.html 

Trump Administration Quietly Lifted Ban on Dominican Sugar Company Over Forced Labor

    The Trump administration has rescinded an order that had blocked a major Dominican sugar producer, Central Romana, from shipping sugar to the United States due to allegations of forced labor at the company. The US Customs and Border Protection website lists the order as “inactive.” Allie Brudney, a senior staff attorney at the US Customs and Broader Protection, states that there has not been "any significant change to warrant any modification to this issue”. The decision to rescind the rule was likely made at the top levels of US Customs and Border Protection because of the sugar producers' powerful ownership. Hilton Beckham, an assistant commissioner for public affairs for Customs and Border Protection, confirmed that the modified order was “documented improvements to labor standards, verified by independent sources” and failed to disclose any of those sources. 

    The company, Central Romana, is the largest landholder and private employer in the Dominican Republic and is partly owned by the Fanjul family, who has been known to be influential in US politics for decades. Many of Central Romana’s workers are Haitian migrants and are uniquely vulnerable due to their lack of citizenship thus unable to seek other employment and fear of deportation. Additionally, these families have been known to be threatened when speaking out about their hardships and evicted from their homes by Central Romana. Since the order to block Central Romana from shipping to the United States “superficial attempts” to remove this order and to avoid remediating their labor practices have occurred. However, their efforts to modify the labor ban have been “substantial” and “deeply concerning” as described by human and labor rights organizations.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/business/economy/trump-sugar-forced-labor-ban-lifted.html

Trump's Tariff Threats Continue Towards Venezuelan Oil Purchasers

    On March 24th Donald Trump took to Truth Social to state that any country that purchases oil or gas from Venezuela will have a 25% tariff placed on any trade with the United States. Very few details about the logistics of this have been released, but there are some things we do know. These tariffs on the countries that do business with both Venezuela and the U.S. would begin on April 2nd and would be stacked on top of the already existing tariffs; potentially resulting in a tariff over 25%. 

    In 2024, the highest purchasers of oil from Venezuela were the following in order: China, United States, India, and Spain. This tariff threat is in response to President Trump's belief that Venezuela is sending Tren de Aragua into the United States. They are a Venezuelan gang that has been identified as a foreign terrorist organization by the Trump administration. Many believe that at the root of it all this is another target towards China in this supposed trade war; whom purchased 270,000 barrels of oil per day from Venezuela in 2024.

    The tariffs that Donald Trump so strongly and forcefully threatened during his campaign have not looked as planned during his first months in office. While the tariffs have been strongly threatened, they continue to not be enforced along with being lessened. We do not have the full answers as to why, but some suspect that seeing how poorly the top markets have been performing after the announcements have been a reason. It will be interesting to see whether or not these newly threatened tariffs do get enforced. 

Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/trump-says-any-country-that-purchases-oil-from-venezuela-will-have-to-pay-25percent-tariff-on-trade-with-us.html 

Markets Respond Positively to Change in Tariff Plans

Stock market indices have performed well on Monday in response to optimism that President Trump will soften his stance on tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite were up 1.42%, 1.76%, and 2.27% respectively. Among the stocks that had good performances were Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. While there is still some concern over increasing inflation as well as a possible recession, the outlook has improved due to reports that tariffs will be delayed as well as narrow in scope. It will be interesting to see how President Trump’s announcement of possible tariff “flexibility” will impact consumer sentiment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/23/stock-market-today-live-updates-.html

Government borrowing higher than expected in Februrary

    In February, UK government borrowing reached £10.7 billion—much higher than the expected £6.5 billion—putting pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of her Spring Statement. The overshoot threatens her fiscal rules, which aim to avoid borrowing for day-to-day spending and reduce debt by 2029/30. Economists warn this could lead to further spending cuts, especially as a previous budget surplus of £9.9 billion may now be gone. Planned measures include welfare reform and reallocation of funds, such as boosting defense spending at the expense of foreign aid. Critics argue the government's approach risks hurting small businesses and public services.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jglw54yvyo

CNBC Daily Open: Tariff flexibility sounds good, but also signals uncertainty

 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/cnbc-daily-open-tariff-flexibility-could-also-mean-uncertainty.html

The article points out how the unpredictable yet flexible tariff policies of the Trump administration are keeping businesses and investors in the dark. Although the administration is eager to safeguard local industries, the uncertain direction has caused issues for most companies to plan their strategy.This unpredictability is making companies cautious, which is leading them to hold back on investments and expansion plans. Uncertainty can slow down economic growth as companies hold back from taking risks if they are uncertain about the terms of trade in the future. The government needs to make the guidelines clearer and more consistent to create a stable economic situation that would boost investment and confidence in the business community.

Magnificent Seven Tumbling to Start 2025

2025 has been off to a rough start for most stocks, and at the forefront of them all is the "Magnificent Seven." The Mag 7 are compromised of high performing technology stocks Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla. As of 2025, Tesla has suffered the biggest blow so far with their stock being down 40% year to date while others such as Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft have also slipped into the negatives among widespread market uncertainty. Additionally, tariff concerns, recession fears, and a broader market selloff have not spared even the industry leaders as these seven stocks have lost billions in value since the beginning of the year. The increased volatility of the market has not helped and has left investors cautious of what is to come in the future.

What I find interesting is how quickly sentiment can switch from optimistic to cautious and fearful. Only last year these companies were performing extremely well and reaching new highs for their stock prices. Some investors may consider this pullback in price necessary in the long run for these stocks to continue with their historic climbs, but it is impossible to say for certain. It will be interesting to track these seven industry leaders over the rest of the year to see if they are able to recoup some of the gains they have lost or if the broader market sell off will continue throughout the whole year.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/the-magnificent-7s-lousy-year-by-the-numbers-meta-tesla.html

The Fed will update its rate projections Wednesday. 

 what to expect:

At its March 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the current range of 4.25%-4.5% but may adjust projections about future rate cuts, economic growth, and inflation due to uncertainties from President Trump's tariffs and fiscal policies. Although markets anticipate two or three rate cuts by year-end, economists suggest the Fed might scale back expectations to just one cut or none at all, especially given recent increases in inflation expectations. The Fed will update its forecasts for inflation, potentially raising them above the previous estimate of 2.5%, while possibly lowering its GDP growth outlook. Additionally, discussions may include plans to end the Fed's balance sheet reduction ("quantitative tightening") program this year. Chair Jerome Powell emphasize a patient and cautious stance in his press conference, reinforcing the Fed's intention not to rush policy changes amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Link 

Pessimism in the Stock Market

 With the trade war continuing to intensify the future of the stock market is becoming more and more unclear. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7% to drag it close to 9% below its all-time high. Furthermore, The S&P 500 has swung by more than 1% up and down 7 times in 8 days due to Trump constantly creating tariffs before quickly delaying whether or not they go into effect. Trump is of course trying to bring manufacturing jobs from foreign countries, to the U.S. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has also said the economy may go through a “detox” period as it weans off an addiction to spending by the government. Overall, this administration is trying to limit federal spending while also cutting the federal workforce and increasing deportations, which could hinder the job market. There is nothing stable about any of these policies and the expression of pessimism has increased as a result. 

Southwest to start charging for checked bags

    Notoriously low cost airline Southwest has rescinded their defining quality of not charging for checked bags that has set them apart from other airlines for decades. The decision comes from outside pressure from an investment group that took a large stake (five board seats) in the company last year. In an attempt to raise revenue, consumer backlash was received immediately.

    Southwest's new policy favors high-paying, extremely-frequent flyers who will not have to pay additional fees to check their bags. In addition to the checked bag rule, Southwest will be abandoning their changeable/open seating policies. There was no price of a checked bag announced in Southwest's announcement, but competitors are around $35.

    Financially, the effects are currently unknown but the market sentiment indicates that investors believe this was a good move as the stock rose 8% after the announcement. Southwest also said that they would gain $1-$1.5 billion from bag fees but lose $1.8 billion in market share. Overall, while the financial effects on the company are unclear, the effect on the average consumer is clear. Southwest has abruptly gone from the airline for the infrequent flyer to catering to the elite. For consumers like me and you, it is hard to imagine we will stick with Southwest and won't just switch over to more cost effective airlines like Spirit and Allegiant. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/southwest-airlines-charge-checked-bags.html

Stocks close out volatile day as investors say market is ‘sick and tired’ of Trump’s tariff chaos.

    The US markets experienced volatility on Tuesday due to President Donald Trump's renewed threat to impose tariffs on Canada. Markets are regaining some ground after the reports that said US and Canadian officials would meet later in the week to ease tensions and renegotiate trade terms. The S&P 500 dropped by .76, which led to Nasdaq falling by .18. Despite the market downturn, Trump did not care. An investment strategist, Ross Mayfield, noted that investors may not have fully anticipated the level of economic pain currently being experienced. Trump again managed to quiet other Americans’ concerns that nothing terrible was happening with the tariff dilemma. In a briefing on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed Trump's comments that the U.S. is undergoing an economic transition. In addition, investor sentiment has been driven by "extreme fear" over the past two weeks, mainly due to uncertainty surrounding President Trump's fluctuating tariff announcements, according to CNN's Fear and Greed Index.  

Article Link: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/economy/us-stocks-tariffs-trump/index.html

Tariffs' Impact on the Housing Market

The housing market has been reaching new heights in the past few years, but have shown positive signs of potentially coming down as of late. The housing market has a significant impact on the economy and can even cause recessions, as we witnessed in 2007. With the new administration in the United States, a large topic of discussion are tariffs, but their impact on the housing market is quite large. 

According to the National Association of Home Builders, the cost of material needed to build a new home could increase by as much as $10,000. The majority of material, such as softwood lumber and gypsum, are imported from Canada and Mexico. This also affected the Homebuilders S&P Series Trust, as it has dropped 22% since late November as investors are very uncertain about the future. Tariffs can also increase the price of domestic products, so ultimately costs will rise regardless. 

I believe this is something that may get overlooked when talking about tariffs. Many talk about the goods imported from countries like China, but the amount of products imported from other North American countries is significant. Just when we thought housing prices could potentially fall, we've encountered a new problem, one that could be preventable. It’ll be very interesting to keep an eye on the housing market and see if it leads to another recession, such as the recession in 2007. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/tariffs-to-add-as-much-as-10000-to-average-cost-of-new-home-trade-group-says.html 

Is NCAA Tournament expansion a ‘slam dunk’? Where talks stand as March Madness begins.

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6208926/2025/03/17/ncaa-basketball-tournament-field-expansion-revenue/

Like many others, this past weekend was marked with a special sort of celebration: the printing of this year’s March Madness bracket. The page is already filled to the brim and it’s hard to believe that there’s a possible future where even more games could be added. 

Currently, the issue seems to be contentious for fans. The support comes from the top dog game commissioners. While most of the conference members believe the expansion would be great for schools and the league as a whole, they all agree it comes down to the numbers. 

Schools that make appearances in the NCAA tournament benefit from payouts that help boost not only their image but also fund the majority of their athletic budget. Take schools like UCONN for example that are staples in the basketball world, they benefit greatly from their image and legacy. Being able to afford huge facility upgrades like their jumbotron upgrade and amassing enough fans to sell out regular season tickets. Now, with talks of an expansion, game commissioners are hoping this effect will benefit smaller schools and serve as a sort of trickle down effect. 

Furthermore, March Madness already accounts for over half of the NCAA revenue (900 million of the 1.4 billion). More teams means more units to distribute, the tournament would have to guarantee they’ll make enough money to keep the distribution at current levels.     

Beyond distribution of revenue concerns, there are also access issues. In order for the expansion to even matter, the tournament needs to reach more audience members.

The Economic Rise of Women’s March Madness

    The 2025 Women’s March Madness tournament is set to be a major financial success, marking a significant milestone in the economic growth of women’s sports. Despite historical funding disparities between men's and women's sports, women's sports have shown resilience and growth. ESPN reported that they sold out its advertising inventory for the championship game months in advance, with ad rates increasing by 175%. Total ad spending in women’s sports rose to $244.4 million in 2024, a 139% increase from the previous year. Advertising investments are coming from industries such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications, highlighting the growing appeal of women's sports to a wide range of sectors. Standout players like UConn’s Paige Bueckers and USC’s JuJu Watkins are helping drive viewership and sponsorship value.

    The economic impact of women’s sports extends beyond advertising. Despite receiving less funding, women's sports have seen a 300% growth in global revenues from 2021 to 2024. The "Caitlin Clark effect" helped boost interest and viewership in women’s college basketball, contributing to record viewership in the 2024-25 regular season. Brands are recognizing the value of women’s sports due to high engagement among female fans, who often buy merchandise and share enthusiasm on social media. This shift highlights the growing importance of women’s sports in the sports economy. It will be interesting to see how the 2025 March Madness tournament unfolds and whether any new records will be set on the women's side, further solidifying its position in the sports world.

Read the article here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lindseyedarvin/2025/03/16/the-money-and-momentum-behind-womens-march-madness/

The Future of Social Security

    The Social Security Administration (SSA) is experiencing challenges because of cost-cutting efforts led by Elon Musk's DOGE team. The SSA plans to cut up to 12% of its workforce, close several offices, and offer early retirement payouts to employees. These plans could destabilize the program that supports millions of people. Current and former officials warn that these cuts could lead to system collapses, increased wait times, and disruptions in benefit payments. The agency's aging technology, which relies on programming languages from the 1970s, further intensifies these concerns.

    Social Security is vital for many Americans, especially those over 65, who rely on these benefits for a significant portion of their income. Nearly 9/10 people in this age group receive Social Security, with about 30% of their income coming from these benefits. The SSA's aging technology and loss of experienced staff pose a large risk in the continuity of services. Critics liken the approach to a destructive strategy, similar to Musk's actions at Twitter, where established systems are dismantled without a clear plan for improvement. The White House has assured that benefits themselves will not be cut, but the delivery and administration of these benefits are at risk due to the ongoing restructuring efforts.

Read the article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/business/social-security-doge-ssa.html

China attempting to boost consumption, right economy

 China is attempting to boost its consumption numbers and improve their economic standing. China already supplies to many international consumers, but this plan will aim to boost the domestic consumption numbers. They want to increase inbound tourism, with focus given to ice and snow regions to develop them into premier tourist destinations for winter sport and activities. There will also be a call to help boost the incomes of rural workers in China.

With the US economy in question, China will try and take advantage of every opportunity they can get to boost theirs. They have struggled with some stagflation following COVID-19, but a focus on domestic economics could give them a boost.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/17/china-economy-plan-to-boost-domestic-consumption.html

Asia-Pacific markets climb after China outlines plan to boost consumption

 Asian-Pacific markets surged on Monday as investors reacted to China’s latest policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing key sectors like real estate and the stock market. The Chinese government announced plans to raise incomes, encourage higher birth rates, and support private enterprises, fueling optimism among investors. Key economic indicators, including industrial production and retail sales, were also in focus, with forecasts suggesting moderate growth. Major indices in Japan, South Korea, and Australia posted gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.45%. Meanwhile, U.S. markets rebounded strongly on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq seeing their best performance of the year, led by a sharp recovery in tech stocks. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about China’s economic outlook, emphasizing the role of government support in shaping market sentiment.

Asia markets live: Stocks climb on China's consumption boost plans

Trade Tensions at the Economic Outlook

At the Economic Outlook, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank stated that banks and policymakers alike are grappling with “exceptionally high” uncertainty, in regards to high trade tensions and geopolitical shifts resulting from the actions of the Trump administration. These tensions and shifts are due to the Trump administration's unpredictable tariffs, military spending, and alliances. These actions have caused European countries to take defensive actions, the European Commission announced tariffs on US imports alongside Canada in addition to increased proposals by European officials to borrow more funds to increase military spending. Additionally, at the Economic Outlook among many of the ECB officials, there was a bewildered mood, reflections of rapidly shifting economic environments steaming from these trade tensions, their bewilderment indicating how volatile and unpredictable things have become for the future. However, under different circumstances the outlook would have celebrated an impressive achievement, inflation for the eurozone slowed to 2.4% in February and policymakers have cut interest rates size times since the middle of last year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/12/business/economy/economy-uncertainty-tariffs-europe.html

 Recent Economic News: Potential Recession Fears Amid Tariff Policies

Recent developments in U.S. trade policies have raised concerns about a possible economic recession. President Donald Trump's implementation of significant tariffs on imports from countries like China, Mexico, and Canada has led to retaliatory measures from these nations. This escalating trade tension has contributed to notable declines in the stock market and a drop in consumer confidence. ​

Economists are now reassessing the risk of a recession. Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have increased their recession probability estimates. The unpredictability surrounding trade policies has caused businesses to hesitate on investments, further fueling concerns about an economic downturn. ​

Despite these challenges, certain economic indicators remain positive. The U.S. continues to experience job growth, and inflation rates have been lower than anticipated. However, the ongoing uncertainty regarding trade policies adds to economic instability. Experts suggest that stabilizing trade relations could help restore confidence among investors and consumers alike. ​

Source: https://www.ctinsider.com/business/article/recession-trump-tariffs-inflation-stock-market-ct-20215081.php

Economic Uncertainty and Tariffs

    Recent economic concerns have intensified as stock markets decline, consumer confidence weakens, and recession fears rise. The Nasdaq entered a correction, and the S&P 500 neared similar levels, marking a stark contrast from last month’s optimism about tax cuts and deregulation under President Trump. Instead, Trump’s focus on tariffs, such as raising import taxes on Canadian steel and aluminum, has contributed to uncertainty. While most economists still predict economic growth, concerns are mounting with the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta branch projecting a potential economic contraction. Harvard economist Larry Summers estimates a 50 percent chance of recession, citing rising costs and uncertainty. Unlike the limited tariffs of Trump’s first term, the current sweeping import taxes could significantly impact trade and manufacturing. Additional pressures such as federal job cuts and reduced government spending could further slow economic activity. While key recession indicators such as rising unemployment have yet to materialize, the situation remains uncertain.

Source: https://apnews.com/article/economy-trump-recession-78e4513c8990fcc9daa9fdab0dd84e45

Canada Flexes Economic Standing in Midst of Tariff Decisions

    As the Trump Administration's plans for the tariffs continue to be pushed back every time that the start date approaches, the Canadian government is not visibly stressing this scenario. They are instead taking this change and using it to show their economic strength in the international economy. In most recent studies it is shown that Canada has the ninth strongest economy in the world. Multiple movements have begun to push Canadian citizens to "shop Canadian". Essentially urging its consumers to avoid purchasing American products; hoping to prove to President Trump that they are plenty strong on their own not needing help from American corporations.

    This strong sense of Canadian Nationalism started when President Trump made comments about Canada becoming the 51st state of the Union. This outrage made Canadians come together in many patriotic acts to prove how their economy is still healthily growing without the help from its southern neighbor. 

    So far the most visible impact this has made has been on the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, who removed all American liquors from the shelves. Due to the LCBOs barring its customers from purchasing American products it is projected that every year the American spirit-makers will miss out on $1 billion from its Canadian consumers alone. The CEO of Brown-Forman, parent company of Jack Daniel's, said that this impact is worse than the tariffs itself. It is taking away sales from American companies.

    Additionally, it is already being seen that the trips from Canada into the United States are down from past years. This sense of nationalism is proving that most Canadian's are making a large effort to support their country's economy with 6 out of 10 consumers claiming they have changed their purchasing habits since Trump was inaugurated in mid-January. 

Link to Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/16/see-you-in-four-years-canada-flexes-economic-muscle-as-tariff-negotiations-continue.html 

Canadians Respond to US Tariff Threat

In response to the Trump administration’s attacks on Canadian trade, Canadian citizens are displaying an intense sense of nationalism. The actions taken by Canadians include boycotts of American imports as well as other economic punishments. According to a survey from market research firm Leger, over 60% of Canadians reported buying fewer American products. Additionally, grocery stores are encouraging customers to “shop Canadian” by labeling items that were produced in the country. Going even further is the Liquor Control Board of Ontario which barred its members from ordering American alcohol. Data also shows that fewer Canadians are traveling to the US as trading tensions have risen. These developments are interesting as they show that Canada is not going to easily bend to President Trump’s will, and contrary to what the administration will admit, Canada has more leverage in trade negotiations than many would believe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/16/see-you-in-four-years-canada-flexes-economic-muscle-as-tariff-negotiations-continue.html

Consumer sentiment slumps in March to lowest since 2022 as Trump tariffs spark more inflation worries

 The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 57.9 in March, down from 64.7 in February, marking its lowest level since November 2022. This 11% decline indicates growing economic pessimism across various demographics and political affiliations. Key concerns include rising inflation, trade policy uncertainties, and potential job losses. Additionally, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9% from 4.3%, suggesting that consumers anticipate higher prices in the near future. This drop in sentiment could lead to reduced consumer spending, potentially slowing economic growth in the coming months.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-survey-drops-in-march-to-57point9-worse-than-expected.html

Why The Fed Isn't Ready To Cut Interest Rate Despite Lower Inflation

 

February’s inflation reports brought mixed news. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both came in lower than expected, suggesting some relief. However, the Federal Reserve does not rely on these measures alone. Instead, it looks at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which provides a more complete narrative of consumer spending. Many economists predict the upcoming PCE report will show inflation at 2.8%, up from 2.6% in January, moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target. With inflation still a concern, rate cuts are unlikely in the near term.

The numbers back this up. Bank of America and Citigroup expect core PCE inflation to land at 2.7%, while other analysts predict 2.8%. These figures signal that inflation is not cooling fast enough for the Fed to act. Some key sectors are contributing to price increases, including hospital care, insurance, and air transportation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week is not expected to bring any changes, with market traders placing almost zero chance of a rate cut and only a 25% chance for May.

There may still be some positive developments ahead. Citi predicts that inflation will decline in March, potentially allowing for rate cuts later in the year. Currently, market expectations lean toward a rate cut in June, but that depends on whether inflation slows significantly in the coming months. Until then, the Fed will likely maintain its cautious stance, watching for sustained improvements before making any moves.

 source : 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/why-this-weeks-positive-inflation-reports-wont-look-as-good-to-the-fed.html

Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

 On March 3, 2025, President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to begin the next day. These include a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian exports and 10% on Chinese goods, citing concerns over drugs and immigration. This could disrupt trade and increase product costs, including cars and vegetables. The move may damage U.S. relations with its neighbors, as Canada and Mexico depend heavily on trade with the U.S. Both countries are preparing retaliatory tariffs, with Canada considering energy export cuts. Trump’s tariffs have raised concerns in businesses, particularly in the automotive sector, which may face higher costs, while small businesses, like those importing from China, are also affected. While Mexico and Canada have taken action to address U.S. concerns, China has not yet offered concessions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-china-mexico-canada.html 

Europe shifts gears

 In response to shifting U.S. policy on Ukraine and growing uncertainty about NATO’s future, Europe is preparing for a massive increase in defense and infrastructure spending. Germany’s two major political parties are proposing nearly €900 billion in new funds, aimed both at strengthening defense and addressing long-overdue infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for an additional €800 billion in EU-wide defense spending, even suggesting that EU members should be allowed to bypass borrowing caps to finance these efforts.

From an economic standpoint, this marks a major shift from Europe’s historically cautious fiscal policies. After years of limited public investment and strict borrowing limits, this proposed wave of spending could serve as a significant fiscal stimulus, boosting growth and possibly pulling the eurozone out of stagnation. Increased public investment in infrastructure could raise productivity over the long term, while defense spending would address growing security concerns, especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine and uncertainty over future U.S. support.

However, this dramatic increase in borrowing also raises questions about the future of European debt and inflation. Since the announcement of these plans, German government bond yields have surged, reflecting market expectations of higher borrowing costs. The euro has also strengthened against the dollar, signaling confidence in Europe’s economic outlook but potentially hurting European exporters. At the same time, defense company stock prices have soared, as investors anticipate a flood of new government contracts.

The key debate now is whether this spending surge will successfully stimulate Europe’s economy and improve security, or whether it will come at the cost of rising debt and inflation. With borrowing limits set to be broken, there is also a larger discussion about whether Europe should maintain fiscal discipline or prioritize investment and defense in this new geopolitical reality.

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html

February jobs report: DOGE federal layoffs show up amid gains

The February jobs report showed stronger-than-expected growth as275,000 jobs were created, surpassing estimates of 200,000. The unemployment rate rose, however, to 3.9%, with wage growth remaining constant. While healthcare and government job sectorsshowed strong gains, retail and manufacturing experienced some pullbacks. The mixed tone of the report shows there is some resilience to job creation and some underlying economic volatility. I think that this report means that the job market is continuing to grow but starting to show signs of a possible slowdown. The rise in unemployment, despitestrong job increases, suggests more people are leaving the labor pool or struggling to find employment. It will be important to pay attentionto if hiring remains firm in the upcoming months or the rise in unemployment is indicative of larger problems.

NBC NewsFebruary jobs report: DOGE federal layoffs show up amid gains