This article explains that fertility rates are falling and that it is projected that by 2100 only six countries will be above the population replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. These countries would be The African nations of Chad, Niger, and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and central Asia’s Tajikistan. With none of the global powerhouses expected to be above this rate, this could be considered, and one big thing that could change is the strictness of the immigration laws around the world to be more lenient to keep populations at a stable number. Also, this could mean diminishing labor forces which could lead to much lower output. I will be very interested in following this trend to see what this means for global production.
6 comments:
I wonder if our food and water we consume play a part in this. If so, it would make sense because you mentioned none of the global powerhouses are expected to be above that rate of 2.1, and all of those countries use the most chemicals and harmful products in their food and water, while the countries you listed to still have high fertility rates consume more natural food and water. Just a hunch though.
I read this article once that mentioned how “the world is becoming more African”, I think they mentioned that by 2050 around a quarter of the world’s population would be African. I think in general, countries in Africa have a very low median age, around 20’s, and considering differences in culture and employment, makes sense that the birth rates would still keep higher in some of those countries. Facilitating immigration laws could be beneficial, but alongside that, there could be a restructure of work schedules or policies to encourage population growth or support families. Things such as extended parental leave, increased vacation time, reduced work hours, subsidized childcares, etc.
I wonder what the impact will be on labor forces in these countries? And I wonder how these changes could affect global economic output in the coming decades?
Like Luke, I'm interested in the cause of such a drastic decline in birth rates over time. This is a really concerning report and holds so much uncertainty for the future of the global economy.
Shocker than in a developed economy where having children don't bring economic benefits, but instead woes unlike developing nations, and the agricultural days of old (more kids to work for the family) people are hesitant to have children. Governments are learning you can't mix harsh business cycles, high costs of living, and slowing rats of pay due to the prioritization of shareholders and expect your country's population (and subsequent future labor force) not to suffer.
This could have some really interesting impacts in the future, as other populations decline and these countries populations grow. I am sure there will be more of a demand for labor in countries like the U.S., so I am definitely curious on how this will impact immigration
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