Sunday, October 25, 2015

Rates May Not Be Our Biggest Concern

Although The Fed's decision regarding an interest rate hike is prevalent, its decision on how to reinvest money from matured Treasury bonds is just as prominent. Currently the Fed holds about $215 billion of Treasury bonds that are expected to mature next year, and $800 billion by 2018. Being that the bond market is experiencing a phase of volatility, the Fed's decision on how to reinvest these funds will have big implications on that volatility. Traditionally the Fed uses proceeds from matured bonds to purchase more primary market Treasury bonds; however, it would be wise for the Fed to reinvest its funds into bonds in the secondary market. Since the market expects rates to rise, there have been negative implications on bond liquidity, which would be eased by secondary market bond investing. By making an appearance in the secondary bond market the Fed would be fulfilling the role that banks have traditionally filled: which is currently suffering because of stricter regulations. Whatever the Fed ends up doing will have a large effect on the bond market. Where they decide to reinvest their money should be something that is publicized before being done so that it is not a shock to investors.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-24/fed-s-next-big-decision-may-not-be-about-rates-as-rollover-looms

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