http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/the-world-s-20-largest-economies-in-2030
The US Department of Agriculture recently released its macroeconomic forecasts that go to the year 2030. The US is still forecasted to be at the top, but the disparity between the US and countries like China is closing. The US is forecasted to be at $24.8 trillion while China is forecasted at $22.2 trillion. The six largest economies in the world in 2030, according to this forecast, are the United States, China, India, Japan, Germany, and Brazil. The article noted that Jamaica took the largest fall from 123 to 126 in the world. Additionally, many of the high-growth countries are in Africa and the Middle East.
While this is not the most popular forecast, the USDA does look out 15 years. The article notes that the IMF's forecast for the next two years is due soon. With increased globalization and less disparity, the world appears to be much smaller economically. What do you think?
9 comments:
Compared to the US, many countries around the world have more room to grow and advance as an economy, so I think over time the gap will become closer and closer as the forecast indicates. Especially China, when progress in technology reaches more of their massive population. 15 years is hard to predict, anything can happen in that period of time.
I have to agree with Kevin. Countries that lacked some technologies are now obtaining them. This causes them to grow, change the way they were doing things, and explode as an economy. It is much harder for a country like the US to increase growth by that same rate because we are in the mature phases of alot of business cycles. This makes rapid growth more difficult
Other than technology, I think many countries fall behind the US and Europe in terms of education. As the world gets educated more and more, their economies will also be able to grow more. The need for unskilled labor keeps being replaced by machinery, and now more than ever to make it people need a higher level of skills. While Tech booms are slowly starting in less developed countries, I'm curious as to where technology will be in the U.S. in 2030. Will you be driving an Apple Car?
I also agree with Kevin. It is not surprising that the gaps between the countries are going to be getting closer as the years go on. I can see China passing us in the near future. Although nothing is for sure, I think that this forecast is very realistic.
I also agree with Kevin. The United States has managed to be the top economy in the world due to the technological advancements and economic prosperity we had earlier in history. Other countries are finally catching up to the United States because they developed later. However, these developing economies are growing fast due to the ever-advancing technology. It will be interesting to see which countries surpass the top economies in the world.
I think sustainability plays a big part in how well economies are going to be doing. The rate at which developed economies are using their resources will certainly slow them down in the future.
The next 15 years likely show less of a deprecation of power of large nations as the equalization of economic abilities across the globe as developing nations catch up with global leaders in technology and economic growth. This smaller world will likely translate to some extent to more prosperous living conditions and human development across the board.
Although this is concerning for the US I think it is exciting that countries in Africa and the Middle East is growing. This will assist with overall Human Rights and other global issues. I think the impact of these growing economies will be great!
Although this is concerning for the US I think it is exciting that countries in Africa and the Middle East is growing. This will assist with overall Human Rights and other global issues. I think the impact of these growing economies will be great!
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