http://www.businessinsider.com/us-job-growth-versus-labor-force-growth-2015-2
In the article by Sam Ro, we still see some questions that remain about the health of the labor market as the labor force participation rate remains low and wage growth remains tepid. The underlying job market is much stronger than what most people give it credit for. Jim O'Sullivan of High Frequency Economics relates job growth to the growth of the potential labor force. Labor force participation rate is up 0.9% in the past 12 months. The unadjusted series is up 1.1%. Payrolls are up 2.3% in the past 12 months - 260k per month. A 2% plus pace for employment is far from booming by past standards, but it is exceptionally strong after allowing for demographic trends. The CBO's estimated potential labor force series, used for potential growth calculations, rose just 0.5% in 2014. The roughly four-to-one between payrolls growth and potential labor force growth in 2014 was stronger than in any year since the 1950s. An economy that's creating more jobs than there are people coming into the labor force means that there may be more better opportunities for those who already have jobs. In all the United States labor force market is the strongest it has been since the 1950s, but will this last?
3 comments:
The share of part-time workers who would prefer full-time work is significantly higher than it was before the recession, and the rate of long-term unemployment is still about a percentage point above its average rate during the years before the recent recession.
I believe there are so many other factors involved, such as the one Vinay mentioned. It is hard to put an opinion on this!
I think this analysis seems impressive because we are looking at percentages, which can be biased by the dismal labor record we've been having for years. It's really easy to boast about big gains when the previous have been relatively small. I think the more important information is the absolute wage increase per month. That is an interesting number.
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