http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less
This article from The Economist discusses the the affects of technological advancements on employment an equality. The article describes how John Meynard Keynes predicted in 1930 that the improvements in technology would result in "technological unemployment." For the most part the 20th century proved Keynes to be wrong in his prediction of "technological unemployment." Rather than replacing labor, new technologies provided more jobs for a growing population. So, why should we be concerned about income inequality or unemployment due to technological advancements?
According to recent research, even in countries where employment is increasing, real wages have been stagnant since the 1980's. This is a result of increased automation. Increased automation results in substituting capital for labor, so the owners of capital gain a larger share of income. Along with automation, workers are also at risk of being replaced by cheap labor. Jobs that are at the greatest risk of being automated are ones that require repetitive behaviors, that can be done by computers or robots. Jobs that are not easily automated, referred to as cognitive jobs may be reduced into less responsibilities as a result of data-processing technology.
The article goes on to predict that increased technology and automation will, in fact, increase inequality, but not necessarily unemployment. As many jobs are replaced by capital, the number of "emotive jobs" such as yoga instructors will increase.
My question: If emotive jobs are a legitimate replacement to jobs being losed to capital, how should education systems change in order to prepare the next generation for these jobs?
5 comments:
I agree that overall employment would not decrease but rather shift to other sectors in the economy. One of the biggest jumps in demand for jobs in recent years has been in the computer science field. The world wants computer scientist and engineers in order to continue the development of the technological boom we are currently experiencing. I think we will see students being required to take computer science classes in both high school and college. In the near future coding will be as much of a basic skill as algebra.
I agree somewhat with the previous comment. The structural unemployment that afflicts low skill repetitive workers is shifting other places, but this is as much a generational shift as a employment one. The baby boomers are for the most part to old to be retrained and start a new career. The people to fill the new jobs that open up in the technology sector are already being educated. I think for the young people in low skill jobs they will be shifted to the service sector which is also booming, that is a much more natural transition for many of the people who will be affected.
Overall employment would not decrease but shift to other sectors. This happened multiple times in the past. There was a shift of agriculture to industrial to name one time the employment sector shifted.
I think it is going to be more important in years to come that our educational system focus more on the actually jobs that are needed/available to future generations. A merging of technical and liberal arts style teaching will be needed to prepare our future work force for success. This way coming out of college students will be able to find work and be able to adapt to the changing environment of the workplace.
I agree with the observation laid down by the author. To provide a solution we might have to go reform the public education system in most places around the world. Public education in general is very inflexible, standardized and bureaucratic. As such it is unable or extremely slow to deal with rapid changes in the world around us. The answer might therefore lie in broad reforms to public education or encouraging private education with a view of regulating it. If not we will continue to see increase in inequality due to a major and increasing gap between supply and demand for certain kinds of knowledge.
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